Direct Displacement Effects of Labour Market Programmes*

Using a panel of 250 Swedish municipalities over the period 1987–1996, we examine the direct displacement effects of active labour market programmes (ALMPs). Compared to earlier studies on this topic, we have more and better data. Based on our GMM estimations, we find that there are direct displacement effects from subsidised employment (in the order of approximately 65%), but that there seem to be no (significant) displacement effects from training. This result seems to be robust to several alternative specifications.     

The Effectiveness and Efficiency of Active Labour Market Policies in Poland

Following the predominance of macroeconomic stabilisation policies and passive income support schemes in the first phase of transition, active labour market policies (ALMPs) have now come to play a more important role in transition economies. This paper looks at the Polish experience and provides empirical evidence on the effectiveness of ALMPs. We use the Polish Labour Force Survey of August 1994 in combination with its Supplement on the Evaluation of Labour Market Policies together with data on ALMP expenditure at the regional (voivodship) level. The macroeconometric analysis of the relationship between labour market flows and ALMP expenditure shows no significant effects. The microeconometric analysis reveals that ALMPs are not particularly well targeted at the problem groups in the labour market. That is, women and people with basic vocational education do not receive enough attention. As to the effectiveness of ALMPs, the paper shows that former participants cannot expect to find employment more easily than their peers who have been unemployed but have not been in a programme. Subjective evaluations of former participants also suggest that ALMPs, but especially works programmes, have not improved their chances to find a job. This revised version was published online in July 2006 with corrections to the Cover Date.     

The Threat Effect of Active Labour Market Programmes*

In this paper, we estimate the threat effect of active labour market programmes (ALMPs) for a sample of unemployed men in Denmark. Threat effects of such programmes capture the impacts of a system of ALMPs prior to actual participation. Rational economic agents make search decisions based on the expected discounted value of unemployment, and the perceived risk of future participation in programmes may affect job‐search behaviour early in the unemployment spell. We find a strong and significant threat effect, which is shown to reduce average unemployment duration by two and a half weeks.     

A Political Economy of Youth Policy in Tunisia

This paper seeks to add to debates over the contribution that a political economy approach can make to understanding the current condition of youth, specifically narrowing the focus to youth policy. The paper suggests an approach which locates youth not as a class in itself, but as being at the epicentre of the growing labour precariat. Youth policy, formulated and disseminated through the structures and hierarchies of global neo-liberal capital via the positive development approach, constructs narratives of youth as a social category which subordinate it to the changing needs of the labour market and disrupt the emergence of broad-based resistance or class consciousness. In Ben Ali’s Tunisia, youth policy had the added task of servicing the authoritarian reproduction of the regime, creating tensions and contradictions between the objectives of the various global and local structures and hierarchies of power at play.     

Emerging Consensus on Labour Market Institutions and Implications for Developing Countries: From the Debates in India

Abstract

This paper makes a critical intervention to on-going theoretical and policy debates in the economic analysis of labour market institutions (LMIs) in the context of recent debates in India. It focuses on the internal inconsistency of mainstream economic analyses of LMIs, in particular those based on the new institutional economics (NIE) approach, and what appears to be an emerging policy consensus on LMIs within the World Bank and the International Labour Organization (ILO). The paper draws out the possible ideological parallels in these two developments, despite different intellectual origins and intentions of those engaged in these debates. A corresponding modification in policy debates in India is observed in the shifting perspectives from the Second National Commission on Labour (SNCL) to the National Commission for Enterprises in the Unorganised Sector (NCEUS). The apparent emerging consensus in both the theoretical literature and policy debates reveals the tendency for researchers to focus on labour market outcomes and phenomenal forms of LMIs rather than the structures, processes, agencies and relations that underpin them. While this can be seen as an advancement from the traditional distortionist-institutionalist dichotomy, the tendency of this consensus to explain the persistence of seemingly inefficient institutions within the micro-level choice theoretic framework and its appeal to policy agendas on good governance, social capital, trust and civil society, render it vulnerable to appropriation by the mainstream. The paper argues that the emerging consensus on LMIs is an inadequate framework to inform effective policy propositions, and highlights the scope and opportunity for a political economy alternative.     

New Labour at work: long-term unemployment and the geography of opportunity

New Labour has placed great faith in active labour market policiesto address problems of long-term unemployment and poverty. Thispaper considers the effectiveness of welfare-to-work programmesin light of persistent regional employment disparities withinthe UK. It is argued that the government has proceeded froma flawed analysis of the causes and magnitude of long-term unemployment,framing the issue in terms of ‘worklessness’ andneglecting demand-side concerns of job availability and jobquality.     

Second‐Generation Immigrants in the Swedish Labour Market

This study focuses on the labour market performance among second‐generation immigrants in Sweden. One motivation behind the analysis is that it gives insight into the long‐term consequences of immigration. Labour market performance relates the probability of having a job, referred to here as a threshold effect and to the differences in income from work, given that a person is in the market and is referred to as an income from work effect. We have shown that a clear threshold effect of being a second‐generation immigrant exists and that different groups of second‐generation immigrants perform differently in the Swedish labour market.     

中国股市政策市中的正反馈交易机制

中国股市是政策市,但我国政策市的政策效率低下,国家宏观政策与预期效果相差甚远,股市上非理性投资者对政策反应的情绪作用被放大,从而导致了宏观政策出台后,股市的更加不稳定。     

Labour market effects of retraining for the unemployed: the role of occupations

We analyse the impact of retraining for unemployed low-skilled job-seekers in Germany. This extensive training programme leads to a formal vocational degree, which is often required to access certain professions. Applying statistical matching methods, we find that on average, after a period with large lock-in effects, retraining strongly increases the employment probability of participants, especially women. We add to the literature by estimating the employment effects for different occupations for which participants are trained. Our results show that there are substantial differences depending on the occupation. As the composition of trained occupations differs for men and women, segregation could be a driver of higher employment effects for women. However, comparisons of men and women trained for the same occupations reveal that even after controlling for segregation, women profit more from retraining. While caseworkers are instructed to choose professions with high labour demand, other aspects, such as working conditions, preferences and aptitudes of participants, should be crucial in the choice of a suitable occupation. An individual assessment of the suitability of an occupation could therefore improve the overall effectiveness of the programme.     

The Effects of Marginal Employment on Subsequent Labour Market Outcomes

Abstract. Unemployed workers in Austria do not lose their unemployment benefits (UI) if they work in a job where their earnings are below a certain threshold [‘marginal employment’ (ME)]. ME might improve their labour market status by signalling effort, or worsen it through reduced job‐search effort. Those who work in ME while claiming UI have less employment and lower earnings afterwards than those who do not. The penalty lessens over time but is still present after three years.     

政策调整对股票市场波动的影响

以利率调整、存款准备金率调整、货币供应量变动作为货币政策调整变量,以印花税调整和财政支出变动作为财政政策调整变量,来研究股票市场的波动,分析了单个政策调整对股票市场波动的影响和政策调整组合对股票市场波动的影响。研究发现,单一货币政策中存款准备金率调整对股票市场波动性影响显著,而利率调整对股票市场波动性影响不显著。单一财政政策中印花税调整在中期对股票市场波动性影响显著。不考虑宏观经济指数变动时,只有利率调整对股票市场波动性的影响显著为负向,印花税调整和存款准备金率调整对股票市场波动性影响不显著;考虑宏观经济指数变动时,三个政策调整对股票市场波动性的影响不显著。不论是否考虑宏观经济景气指数的变动,财政支出变动对股票市场波动的影响显著负向,货币供应量变动对股票市场波动的影响显著为正。     

The Rise of Finance and the Decline of Organised Labour in the Advanced Capitalist Countries

The goal of this article is to provide a comprehensive evaluation of the impacts of finance and corporate governance reforms on organised labour since 1980. The argument is made that contemporary institutional and ‘Varieties of Capitalism’ as well as ‘Varieties of Unionism’ perspectives on labour market reform have overstated the power of states, institutions and organised interests in deflecting global economic pressures. Drawing on a range of recent Organisation for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD) statistics and qualitative studies, it is claimed that current developments in finance and corporate governance mark a fundamental break with post-war developments. Capital has reasserted its power over organised labour and labour markets not only in the US and UK, but throughout Western Europe as well. In assessing how far this reversal has gone, the article focuses on three key political economic changes: i) the rise in finance and adoption of corporate ‘shareholder’ systems; ii) the expansion of mergers and acquisitions and their negative effects on unionisation and manufacturing jobs; and iii) the effects of financial pressures and corporate reform on collective bargaining and wages. This is the first study to report on comparative changes and qualitative reforms to both finance and labour in 13 OECD countries between 1980 and 2005.     

我国货币政策对股票市场影响的实证研究

对货币政策与股票市场关系的文献进行了回顾,然后运用2009～2012年的时间序列数据,实证研究货币供应量和利率对股票价格的影响,结果表明：我国的货币政策对股票市场存在影响,而货币供应量的增加会使股价上涨,利率的上升会使股价下跌。根据实证结果,提出相应的对策建议。     

气候政策的经济环境效应及其缓解措施的研究综述——兼谈对我国的启示

气候政策对一国经济和环境产生一定的效应,开放经济条件下还将对一国产业的国际竞争力产生影响。碳泄漏等问题使得气候政策的实际减排效果受到了质疑。气候政策实施过程中产生的这些问题都将严重影响气候政策的有效性。为使气候政策的有效性达到最优,很多学者研究了缓解气候政策负面效应的措施。本文对一些重要的气候政策的经济环境效应进行了理论总结,从竞争力效应、经济效应、环境效应和研究方法这四个方面综述了相关实证研究成果,分析了气候政策负面效应的缓解措施,以期为制定适合我国的气候政策提供借鉴。     

Monetary Policy and Market Power in Banking

Applying a spatial competition model to banking, we analyze the effects of the choice of a monetary policy rule by the central bank on banks market power as measured by the Lerner index. We show that a procyclical monetary policy may reinforce the countercyclical movement of the Lerner index. That is, this measure of competitiveness of the banking sector may vary more over the business cycle due to the monetary policy rule.JEL classification: G21, E52, L13.Acknowledgements The author thanks Hans Degryse, Hans van Ees, Marco Haan, Eko Riyanto, Bert Schoonbeek, Elmer Sterken, three anonymous referees, and participants of the EARIE 2001 conference (Dublin), the NAKE Day 2002 (Amsterdam), and a seminar at Ghent University for their constructive comments.revised version received November 11, 2003     

Product Market Integration and Environmental Policy Coordination in An International Duopoly

We analyse the effect of product market integration on environmental policy incentives in an international duopoly, where national policy makers act strategically. If traditional trade policy instruments are not available, environmental policies will typically be determined by the interaction of conflicting policy incentives. Contrary to popular belief, we find that international product market integration, in this particular setting, might reduce the need for transnational policy coordination, both from a purely environmental and from a social welfare perspective.     

中国货币政策与股票市场的关系

本文提出的综合理论框架全面分析描述了以稳定物价水平、促进国民经济持续增长为目的的货币政策与股票市场的关系 ,着重对中央银行干预股票市场的必要性和有效性进行理论分析和实证检验。本文应用的动态滚动式的计量检验方法适应中国经济体制不断调整的特征 ,不但可以完成我们的理论分析 ,更可以检测中央银行对股票市场干预的机制及干预的有效性 ,从而分析进一步的政策含义 ,为中央银行的货币政策制订和预期效果提供一个前瞻性的预测分析框架。     

论股票市场对扩张性货币政策效力的影响及相应对策

面对我国20世纪90年代中期以来的通货紧缩状况，货币当局实施了一系列扩张性货币政策。由于我国股票市场在发展过程中的一些问题、银行体制上的缺陷以及宏观经济环境的影响等因素，股票市场并不能在货币政策和实体经济之间有效地发挥传导作用；货币政策本身也受到了股票市场发展的重要影响。为解决问题，应当在股票市场、企业投资环境和货币政策本身三个方面进行完善。     

Labour Market Policy in Post-Soviet Economies: The Case of Azerbaijan

MOCT-MOST: Economic Policy in Transitional Economies -     

我国积极财政政策"紧缩效应"的形成机制及其检验

积极财政政策的扩张性效果依赖经济周期的阶段性,积极财政政策也有可能通过货币需求的利率渠道和汇率渠道等,产生对于实际产出的紧缩影响.本文利用误差修正模型和时变参数模型,通过估计货币需求相对于实际产出的弹性系数,发现我国的财政政策仅在1996年前体现出显著的"紧缩效应",而在1996年后"紧缩效应"逐渐减弱和消失,这说明在我国宏观经济调控中,积极财政政策和稳健货币政策的组合方式和期限结构发挥了比较稳定的政策效果.