Socioeconomic stratification and stereotyping: lab-in-the-field evidence from Colombia

In this study, we test the hypothesis that the Colombian system of socioeconomic stratification (SES), which ranks dwellings from one to six to calculate utility (public services) rates, may induce discrimination. To this end, a field experiment with around 1000 participants from Bogotá is carried out. The design includes a combination of a trust game and a dictator game and SES-contingent decisions. Results exclude the presence of pure preferences for discrimination, yet they confirm that low strata are associated with stereotypes of low trustworthiness. We also observe significant prosocial behavior in the low-income population, and most strikingly, we do not observe any difference in trustworthiness across different income levels.     

Trust and trustworthiness across different age groups

We examine the degree of trust and trustworthiness in an experimental trust game with 662 participants from six different age groups, ranging from 8-year-olds to retired persons. Although both trust and trustworthiness have been identified as fundamental pillars for efficient economic interactions, economic research has devoted little attention to measuring their strength in different age groups. In our experiment subjects interact with members of the same age group. We find that trust increases almost linearly from early childhood to early adulthood, but stays rather constant within different adult age groups. Trustworthiness prevails in all age groups.     

Perceived trustworthiness and inter-firm governance: empirical evidence from the UK printing industry

The paper describes six representative theoretical positionsregarding the impact of trustworthiness on the organisationof inter-firm relations. The positions are then assessed onthe basis of a survey of 184 buyer–supplier relationshipsin the UK printing industry. The widely accepted transactioncost argument for trust as a parameter reducing hierarchy isdismissed. Instead, the so-called triadic forces argument basedon Bradach, J. L. and Eccles, R. G. (1989. Price, authorityand trust: from ideal types to plural forms, Annual Review ofSociology, vol. 15, 96–118) receives the strongest support.Market, hierarchy and trust represent alternative mechanismsthat can be combined in a variety of ways. This pluralisticmodel is enriched further by the acknowledgement of variableroles for contracts and a sceptic stance regarding rationalityin practice.     

Inflation targeting credibility and sovereign risk: evidence from Colombia

This article relates to the literature on sovereign risk in developing countries. In particular, we present empirical evidence to address the effect of inflation targeting credibility on sovereign risk based on the Colombian experience. The findings denote that credibility is an important improvement in the institutional framework to reduce the sovereign risk premium.     

Trust and trustworthiness in games: An experimental study of intergenerational advice

This paper investigates the development of conventions of trust in what we call intergenerational games, i.e., games played by a sequence of non-overplapping agents, who pass on advice on how to play the game across adjacent generations of players. Using the trust game of Berg et al. (1995) as our experimental decision problem, advice seems to decrease the amount of trustthat evolves when this game in played in an inter-generational manner in that it decreases the amount of money sent from Senders to Returners. Ironically, advice increases trustworthinessin that Returners tend to send more back. Further, subjects appear to follows conventions of reciprocity in that they tend to Send more if they think the Returners acted in a “kind” manner, where kind means the Sender sent more money than the receiver expected. Finally, while we find a causal relationship running from trustworthiness to trust, the opposite can not be established. We note that many of our results can only be achieved using the tools offered by inter-generational games. The inter-generational advice offered provides information not available when games are played in their static form. Combining that information with elicited beliefs of the Senders and Returners adds even more information that can be used to investigate the motives that subjects have for doing what they do. Electronic supplementary material Electronic supplementary material is available for this article at and accessible for authorised users. JEL Classification C91 · C72 Resources for this research were provided by National Science Foundation grants SBR-9709962 and SBR-9709079 and by both the Center for Experimental Social Science and the C.V. Starr Center for Applied Economics at New York University. We would like to thank Shachar Kariv for both his comments and research assistance. We also thank Mikhael Shor and Judy Goldberg for research assistance, and Yevgeniy Tovshteyn for computer programming.     

Trust, trustworthiness, and risk in rural Paraguay

This dissertation looks at the relationship between trust, trustworthiness, and risk aversion in a rural Paraguayan setting. The first chapter of this dissertation looks at theft between farmers. Rural areas of developing countries often lack effective legal enforcement. However, villagers who know each other well and interact repeatedly may use implicit contracts to minimize crime. I construct a dynamic limited-commitment model in which a thief cannot credibly commit to forego stealing from his fellow villagers but may be induced to limit his stealing by the promise of future gifts from his potential victim. Using a unique survey from rural Paraguay which combines traditional data on production with information on theft, gifts, and trust, as well as with experiments measuring trust and trustworthiness, I test whether the data is consistent with predictions from the dynamic model. The results provide evidence that, in contrast with predictions from a one-period model with an anonymous thief, farmers do implicitly contract with one another to limit theft. Farmers who have more close family members in their village give fewer gifts, and farmers with plots which are more difficult to steal from give fewer gifts, experience less theft, and trust more. Gift-giving increases when trust is lower and the threat of theft is greater, turning the social capital literature on its head. The second chapter of this dissertation looks at a different linkage between trust, trustworthiness, and risk. Trusting behavior in general and play in the traditional trust experiment specifically depend both on trust beliefs and on levels of risk aversion. I ran two experiments with a diverse set of subjects in fifteen villages of rural Paraguay, the traditional trust experiment and a new experiment measuring only risk aversion. I find that risk attitudes are highly predictive of play in the trust game. In addition, omitting risk aversion as a regressor in trust regressions significantly changes the coefficients of important explanatory variables such as gender and wealth. The chair of this dissertation committee was Ethan Ligon and the other committee members were George Akerlof and Elisabeth Sadoulet.     

Health workers’ behavior,patient reporting and reputational concerns: lab-in-the-field experimental evidence from Kenya

Experimental Economics - We examine the effectiveness of accountability systems that rely on patient reporting in Kenyan health clinics. Patients and health care providers from public and private...     

The effectiveness of capital controls: evidence from Colombia and Thailand

In the run up to the financial crisis of 2007–2009 many developing nations were subject to massive inflows of capital, capital that their financial systems found difficult to absorb. One of a number of policy options to respond to such inflows is unremunerated reserve requirements (URR). Two countries, Colombia and Thailand, deployed URR in the second half of the decade. This paper analyses the effectiveness of the URR in those two instances. We find that URRs were modestly successful in Colombia and Thailand. In Colombia, the controls were able stem an asset bubble in the stock market. In Thailand, the URR reduced the overall volume of flows, and the announcement of the URR caused a sharp drop in asset prices. However, some of the other goals of capital controls were not fulfilled. The results in this paper demonstrate that there is still a role for capital controls in the twenty-first century, but such controls should be more sophisticated than in years past.     

Trust,risk and time preferences: evidence from survey data

The paper shows that time preferences and risk preferences are key covariates of self-reported trust. They both predict negatively a measure of generalized trust; however, risk aversion is positively correlated with an index of particularized trusting behaviour (which refers to the circle of known people).     

Coffee export booms and monetary disequilibrium: some evidence for Colombia

The theoretical models that analyse the monetary consequences of export booms show that under a regime of fixed exchange rates, they affect not only the demand for money, via real income, but also the money supply via foreign exchange accumulation. Within this theoretical framework, this study proposes an empirical approach to determine whether the coffee booms of the second half of the 1970s and mid–1980s led to excess money supply in the Colombian economy. The findings provide evidence in favour of a direct association between coffee export booms and excess money supply, implying that external disturbances jeopardize the ability of the economic authorities to carry out successful monetary policy.     

Monetary policy before and after the euro: evidence from Greece

We model Greek monetary policy in the 1990s and use our findings to address two interrelated questions. First, how was monetary policy conducted in the 1990s so that the hitherto highest-inflation EU country managed to join the euro by 2001? Second, how compatible is the ECB monetary policy with Greek economic conditions? We find that Greek monetary policy in the 1990s was: (i) primarily determined by German/ECB interest rates, though still influenced by domestic fundamentals; (ii) involving non-linear output gap effects; (iii) subject to a deficit of credibility culminating in the 1998 devaluation. On the question of compatibility our findings depend on the value assumed for the equilibrium post-euro real interest rate and overall indicate both a reduction in the pre-euro risk premium and some degree of monetary policy incompatibility. Our analysis has policy implications for the new EU members and motivates further research on fast-growing EMU economies.     

Dissertation abstract: Three essays on the determinants of behavior in the commons-experimental evidence from fishing communities in Colombia

This dissertation presents the results of a series of common pool experiments conducted in three regions of rural Colombia with individuals who face a social dilemma in their everyday lives that is similar to what was presented in the experiment. The research objectives are to develop an empirical characterization of how individual behavior deviates from purely self-interested Nash behavior and to further our understanding of the effects of alternative institutions to promote more conservative choices in common pool experiments.Groups of five subjects participated in a 20-period common pool resource game framed as a harvest decision from a fishery. Every group first played 10 rounds of a baseline limited access common pool resource game and then 10 additional rounds under one of five institutions: face-to-face communication, one of two external regulations, and communication combined with one of the two regulations. The two external regulations consisted of an individual harvest quota that was set at the efficient outcome, but differ with respect to the level of enforcement. A total of 420 individuals participated in the experiments, with individual earnings averaging slightly more than a day’s wages. The results are presented in three essays.The first essay, What Motivates Common Pool Resource Users?, develops and tests several models of pure Nash strategies of individuals who extract from a common pool resource when they are motivated by combinations of self-interest, altruism, reciprocity, inequity aversion or conformity. The results suggest that a model which balances self-interest with a strong preference for conformity best describes average strategies. The data are inconsistent with a model of pure self-interest, as well as models that combine self-interest with individual preferences for altruism, reciprocity and inequity aversion.The second essay, Communication and Regulation to Conserve Common Pool Resources, tests for interaction effects between formal regulations imposed on a community to conserve a local natural resource and non-binding verbal agreements to do the same. The results indicate that formal regulations and informal communication are mutually reinforcing in some instances, but this result is not robust across regions or regulations. Therefore, the hypothesis of a complementary relationship of formal and informal control of local natural resources cannot be supported in general; instead the effects are likely to be community-specific. There is some evidence to suggest that these effects are correlated with the relative importance of formal regulations versus informal community efforts in the community.The third essay, Within and Between Group Variation in Individual Strategies in Common Pools, analyzes the relative effects of groups and individuals within groups in explaining variation in individual harvest decisions for particular institutions, and uses a hierarchical linear model to examine how these sources of variation may vary across institutions. Communication serves to effectively coordinate individual strategies within groups, but these coordinated strategies vary considerably among groups. In contrast, externally-imposed regulatory schemes (as well as unregulated limited access) produce significant variation in the individual strategies within groups, but these strategies are roughly replicated across groups so that there is little between-group variation.     

ERM bandwidths for EMU and after: evidence from foreign exchange options

Are the wide bands adopted in the summer of 1993 too large? The official answer is that wide bands offer a protection against speculative pressure, while exchange rates may be kept within narrower margins at the discretion of the authorities. Yet if exchange rate fixity and predictability are desirable, as implicitly assumed by the mere existence of the system, there must exist a trade-off between protection against speculative pressure and predictability. In that case, the bandwidth chosen should be as narrow as possible and yet unlikely to be challenged by the markets. This paper offers estimates of 'safe' bandwidths. For the long-term member currencies (French franc, peseta, Danish krone and escudo), the existing 15% bands are found to be unnecessarily wide: narrower 3.5% bands would capture at least 95% of expected exchange rate realizations over a three-month horizon. For the lira, Finnish markka and Swedish krone, wider bands of 5–6% would capture a similar amount of the exchange rate distribution. The pound's exchange rate expectations are the most dispersed, requiring 8.4% bands to capture 95% of exchange rate expectations.     

Trust and growth: a shaky relationship

We conduct an extensive robustness analysis of the relationship between trust and growth by investigating a later time period and a bigger sample than in previous studies. In addition to robustness tests that focus on model uncertainty, we systematize the investigation of outlier influence on the results by using the robust estimation technique Least Trimmed Squares. We find that when outliers (especially China) are removed, the trust-growth relationship is no longer robust. On average, the trust coefficient is half as large as in previous findings.      

Health status and labor force participation: evidence for urban low and middle income individuals in Colombia

This paper analyzes the relationship between individual health status and labor force participation using the first wave of the Colombian Longitudinal Survey. The empirical modeling strategy accounts for the presence of potential endogeneity between these two variables. The results show that there is a positive relationship between health and labor force participation in both directions, indicating that better health is likely to lead to a higher probability of participation in the labor market, but also that individuals who participate in the labor market are more likely to report better health. Interesting differences are uncovered when comparing the results by gender and/or age groups. For instance, for younger females, health status and higher education positively affect the probability of labor participation, whereas having children under the age of 5 and being married reduce their probability of participation. Our findings also highlight the importance of public policy to guarantee good health conditions of the population which could also have a positive impact on labor productivity and consequently on long-run economic growth.     

Determinants of securing academic interviews after tenure denial: evidence from a zero-inflated Poisson model

This paper uses a new data set to estimate empirically the optimal job search strategies for recently non-tenured economists seeking to obtain an academic job. Estimates from a zero inflated Poisson model suggest that a portion of interview counts is beyond the candidate's control as age, colour of skin, gender, and citizenship all play a part in the interview decision. A candidate can substantially enhance the probability of obtaining initial interviews by maintaining quality research and teaching portfolios, however.     

Trade and market selection: Evidence from manufacturing plants in Colombia

We examine the link between trade liberalization and aggregate productivity, with a focus on improved market selection resulting from a reduction in trade barriers and in the dispersion of these barriers across producers. Our analysis exploits tariff changes across sectors after the Colombian trade reform. An additional advantage of our analysis is that our TFP measure does not include demand and price effects. We find that reduced trade protection makes plant survival depend more closely on productivity. Using a dynamic simulation, we find that enhanced selection increases aggregate productivity substantially. Trade liberalization also increases productivity of incumbent plants and improves the allocation of activity. We find larger effects on allocative efficiency with our TFP measure than with a traditional measure including price effects.     

Crowd out effects of place-based subsidized rental housing: New evidence from the LIHTC program

Since its inception in 1987, the Low Income Housing Tax Credit (LIHTC) program has ballooned into the largest ever source of subsidized construction of low-income housing in the United States, accounting for one-third of all recent multi-family rental construction. This paper examines the crowd out effects of this increasingly important source of low-moderate income housing. To do so, we analyze the impact of LIHTC construction at three different levels of geography, MSA, county, and 10-mile radius circles. This allows us to employ increasingly extensive geographic fixed effects that help to difference away unobserved factors. Political variables are also used as instruments to further facilitate identification.In all of our models, IV estimates yield substantially greater crowd out than OLS, confirming the endogenous attraction of LIHTC development to areas ripe for new construction. Our most robust IV estimates indicate that nearly 100% of LIHTC development is offset by a reduction in the number of newly built unsubsidized rental units, although the confidence band around this point estimate allows for less dramatic assessments. Additional estimates suggest that LIHTC development has a much more moderate impact on construction of owner-occupied housing, but these estimates are imprecise. Overall, while LIHTC development may well affect the location of low-moderate income rental housing opportunities, our estimates suggest that the impact of the program on the number of newly developed rental housing units appears to be small.     

Testing the law of one price in food markets: evidence for Colombia using disaggregated data

This article applies stationarity tests to examine evidence of market integration for a relatively large sample of food products in Colombia. We find little support for market integration when using the univariate KPSS tests for stationarity. However, within a panel context and after allowing for cross-sectional dependence, the Hadri tests provide much more evidence supporting the view that food markets are integrated or, in other words, that the law of one price holds for most products.