统一内外资企业所得税率的动态CGE研究

新《劳动合同法》、统一内外资企业所得税等政策的相继实施,再加上目前人民币升值、国际形势恶化和宏观政策紧缩,形势与政策之间已经出现共振现象,那么由两税合并带来的对我国宏观经济的冲击到底有多大?本文利用CGE模型进行仿真,研究结果表明,在短期内,两税合并的确会对部分产业产生一定的负面冲击,同时也会降低政府税收,但对各地区的产出却呈正向冲击,长期来看,两税合并最终有利于我国产业的优化发展,有利于促进经济社会的全面发展。     

Global Warming Policy and the Pennsylvania Economy: A Computable General Equilibrium Analysis

Most studies of the impacts of global warming policy have been performed at the national level. However, national averages obscure the fact that some regions may be affected much more than others. We formulated a regional computable general equilibrium model to analyze the impact of a carbon tax on the Pennsylvania economy. The model incorporates special features relating to labor mobility, trade and energy substitution for this purpose. Our results indicate significant negative overall impacts on the Pennsylvania economy, primarily because it is a major producer and user of fossil fuels, especially coal, and because it is highly industrialized. Sensitivity analyses on key parameters and model assumptions indicate that our results are robust.     

Chamberlinian Spatial Computable General Equilibrium Modelling: A Theoretical Framework

In this paper, a multi-regional multi-sectoral computable general equilibrium model is developed by bringing together different strands of theoretical reasoning. These are as follows: input–output analysis, gravity modelling, the theory of intra-industry trade and the theory of general equilibrium under conditions of monopolistic competition. The innovation in this approach is the assumption that, within each sector, a large number of different brands of output are produced. Households like diversity of consumption and diversity of inputs is a productive factor for firms. The number of brands produced in each sector and region is endogenous. A certain amount of fixed costs per brand imposes an upper bound on the number of available brands. Factor markets are perfectly competitive, while monopolistic competition prevails on goods markets. The equilibrium solution of the model closely resembles models which have been applied on an ad hoc basis in regional science before, but it is well founded in modern economic theory now. In particular, trade flows obey a gravity law in equilibrium.     

Modelling Commodity Balances in a Computable General Equilibrium Context

This paper is the second part of a two-part discussion which elaborates the proposition that Stone's concept of commodity technology is the appropriate assumption on which to build in modelling commodity balances. The analysis in the first part was developed from a social accounting representation of commodity balances into a formal statement of the Stone model and the conditions under which it admits an acceptable solution. This second part develops a generalization of Stone's original formulation, in the spirit that the modelling of commodity balances should be approached in a general equilibrium context which recognizes that, in the final analysis, prices and quantities are interdependent.     

北京市结构变化的可计算性一般均衡模型

本文在分析与总结结构变化的一般演进规律后，提出构建区域产业结构变化CGE模型的必要性。随后以北京市为例，描述了区域CGE模型的构造及主要特色，模拟并分析了北京市和国内其他地区结构变化的主要宏观结果，提出了模拟结果的相关政策含义。     

中国农业关税政策的空间性应用一般均衡模型构建及分析

对缩减中国农业关税率之后所产生的影响进行计量分析，是一个值得关注的课题。为此，本文首先构建了对多地区(或多国家)、多部门进行计量分析的空间性应用一般均衡模型(SCGE)。然后在将中国农业关税率缩减30％的假定下，对中国以及其他国家在产品价格、需求及受益水平等方面所带来的影响进行了模拟分析。     

Agricultural Trade Liberalization in a Computable General Equilibrium Framework for the Philippines

A bi-regional and multi-market computable general equilibrium model that focuses on the agricultural sector of the Philippines' economy in 1987 is constructed. This paper presents the basic structure of the model and carries out some cost-benefit analyses to assess the impact of alternative trade reform policies on the economy. It is found that various liberalization policies can produce large benefits, but any single policy implemented separately may incur intolerable costs. However, a combination of trade liberalization and currency devaluation, coupled with target income support and income tax reform, can achieve balanced results that are beneficial to the economy without worsening income distribution and food consumption of the poor.     

Hungary on the Road to a Mixed Economy: A Kaleckian Computable General Equilibrium Approach

The change from a centrally planned economy into a market economy is likely to have created a unique situation in economic history. Consequently, no existing economy theory is able to depict the process of transformation. It is argued in this paper that a Kaleckian theoretical approach may provide a starting point for the analysis of the formerly centrally planned economies of Central and Eastern Europe. This approach is applied to Hungary, within the framework of a computable general equilibrium model. A number of policy measures, such as wage constraint, devaluation and mark-up reduction, are considered and their effects on production, inflation and income distribution assessed.     

A General Equilibrium Analysis of VAT in India

Indian industry is under pricing pressure after the government cut tariffs in a phased manner as per the WTO agreements. In order to be competitive, the consensus opinion in government, academics and industry is the implementation of a VAT in India. The paper evaluates the welfare implications of a VAT in the static and a sequentially dynamic context after accounting for the political and administrative constraints facing the Indian government in implementing a VAT. Replacing the old indirect tax structure with a VAT is welfare worsening. The increase in final consumer prices on account of reduced tax base leads to higher price of essentials, causing welfare loss. Zero rating v/s exemption plays an important role on welfare, with lower welfare loss if essential commodities are exempt from VAT. Agriculture sector unambiguously plays a crucial role in welfare.     

Comparison of Input–Output,Input–Output + Econometric and Computable General Equilibrium Impact Models at the Regional Level

Economic impact studies are a common practice—indeed, a necessary prerequisite in many cases of project development—in Australia. Although input–output (IO) is still regarded as the ‘bread-and-butter’ model for these types of study, attention in recent years has turned towards more sophisticated models, the main contenders being integrated IO + econometric and computable general equilibrium models. All these models, which are often promoted as substitutes, exhibit characteristics which are theoretically and empirically appealing, yet questions have been raised with respect to the different approaches, with apparently little awareness at the practitioner level as to the extent of these differences. This paper compares the three models and demonstrates that the differences can be quite substantial, even when the models rely on the same database and are subjected to the same impact scenario.     

中国排污收费征收标准改革的一般均衡分析

2003年7月1日起中国开始施行新的排污收费标准,由过去的浓度超标收费转向总量收费和浓度超标收费相结合的排污收费方式。这是中国环境政策改革的一个重要举措。为此,本文建立了一个中国排污收费标准改革的CGE模型,并设计了三种政策情景来模拟这次改革。对西方关于环境税的一些理论观点在中国的适用性进行了验证。     

A General Equilibrium Analysis of the Australian Information Economy

The more robust computable general equilibrium (CGE) modelling has been applied to examine the macro-economic implications of promoting the nascent Australian information economy. The Australian information economy has been trichotomized into marketed or primary information, secondary or non-marketed information and non-information economic sectors using a special algorithm. The trichotomized data base has been used in a CGE framework to examine the macro-economic policy implications of information sector development. In particular, the nurturing, under protection, of the primary information sector as a strategic trade sector provided unanticipated lack-lustre results. Overall, it is the contention of this paper that the CGE analysis of the Australian information economy provides richer policy insights than straightforward input–output analytics.     

Price-endogenized Input–Output Model: A General Equilibrium Analysis of the Production Sector of the Japanese Economy

This paper considers a generalization of the open Leontief model, by endogenizing the input coefficients on the basis of the neoclassical multi-sectoral produc-tion function. The adopted production function is of the two-level CES type, which is quite effective for avoiding the multi-collinearity problem. As a result, the estimates obtained are quite stable, satisfying the quasi-concavity conditions of the production function for all the sectors. Comparative statics based on the Jacobian of the excess supply function for each commodity market reveal that, owing to the factor substitution the effect of an increase in the final demand on the level of the production is significantly smaller than that which occurs in the open Leontief model with fixed input coefficients.     

General Equilibrium Analysis of India's Trade Reforms

WTO membership for India implies cutting tariffs in a phased manner. A general equilibrium approach is used to evaluate its impacts. The study analyses both the reduction and elimination of tariffs. With a small country assumption, there are welfare gains by liberalizing trade. With a large country assumption, welfare gains are observed when a CET transformation function is used and welfare loss in its absence.     

经济学中一般均衡存在性问题理论述评

本文对经济学中一般均衡理论进行了概述。文中主要介绍了Arrow—Debreu经济模型、均衡存在性定理、存在性涸题在无穷维商品空间上的扩展以及相关工作。     

General Equilibrium Analysis of International TFP Growth Rates

The paper presents a study of the total factor productivity (TFP) performance among developed countries between 1985 and 1990. The analysis includes the three large economies: the US, Japan and Europe. A general equilibrium model of these economies is used to estimate TFP growth at the sectoral and at the aggregate levels. The model is based on the fundamentals of the economies and employs only data on input-output flows, factor inputs across sectors, consumption and trade patterns and endowments. Prices are endogenous in the model. They are obtained as shadow prices from the model's linear program and then used to measure TFP growth and decompose it in a technical change effect, a demand effect and a terms-of-trade effect. The technical change effect is highly correlated with the conventional Solow residual measure. This result lends support to the standard measure of technological change.     

中国税制改革效应的一般均衡分析

我国正酝酿着新的税制改革。本研究利用可计算一般均衡模型PRCGEM（第三版）对我国税制改革的效应进行了模拟。在第二版的基础上，PRCGEM第三版通过更详细刻画中国的税收结构在模型中建立起几个主要税种的决定机制及其对经济主体之间的财政收入分配的反馈机制，从而为量化改革方案对经济的影响提供了基础。本研究对四种由经济学界和政府决策层提出的税制改革设想的短斯和长期效果进行了模拟和分析。     

中国企业所得税税负归宿的一般均衡分析

本文运用一般均衡方法,分析中国企业所得税的税负归宿。文中将整个经济划分为企业所得税主要征收部门和非企业所得税主要征收部门,通过需求、供给、要素市场出清和投入产出相等四个方面,研究征收企业所得税对所有产品和要素在各个市场产生的连锁反应和影响,从而确定税负的分布。根据我国数据测定要素替代弹性、产品需求替代弹性等参数,代入模型进行模拟分析。研究结果表明,我国企业所得税并不完全由资本承担,资本只承担了税负83%左右,还有17%左右转嫁给劳动要素。由于要素的流动性,资本承担的83%税负部分不只是由企业所得税主要征收部门的资本承担的,而是由全社会资本共同承担的。     

基于DEA的福建港口效率评价分析

港口作为福建省的重要战略资源,对福建省的经济发展有着至关重要的作用。作者利用DEA-CCR模型对福建省4个主要沿海港口——福州港、厦门港、泉州港、莆田港的相关港口指标（2008年）进行分析,计算出各港口的综合效率、纯技术效率和规模效率,以此判断港口当前的有效性,并分析无效港口的问题所在,在此基础上提出改进建议。