Geographical focus in emerging markets and hedge fund performance

Emerging market hedge funds are an asset class which does not seem to outperform the market benchmarks. We hypothesize that the poor aggregate performance may be due to lack of focus of these funds. Our results suggest that a portfolio of emerging market hedge funds, which have geographical focuses, outperform their underlying stock markets. Hedge funds which focus on Eastern Europe appear to have the best outperformance. However, we also find that the performance of all emerging market hedge funds has reduced after the start of the 2008 Crisis.     

The anatomy of financial crises: Evidence from the emerging ADR market

We study the anatomy of recent financial crises in Mexico, East Asia, Russia, Brazil, Turkey, and Argentina by investigating the efficiency and pricing of the emerging American depositary receipt (ADR) market. We use a non-parametric technique to test for persistent regime shifts in two basic structural relationships for ADR returns in 20 emerging countries — identified via arbitrage and capital mobility considerations — that should always hold in efficient and integrated capital markets. We find that those “normal” market conditions were instead often violated in proximity of financial crises: The law of one price often weakened (by 54% on average) and domestic sources of risk became more important (often by more than 100%) for many emerging ADRs. We also find the likelihood of these regime shifts to be related to proxies for uncertainty among investors, exchange rate volatility, trade linkages, and liquidity (but not stock market trends, currency devaluations, capital flight, or capital controls).     

International portfolios, capital accumulation and foreign assets dynamics

Despite the liberalization of capital flows among OECD countries, equity home bias remains sizable. We depart from the two familiar explanations of equity home bias: transaction costs that impede international diversification, and terms of trade responses to supply shocks that provide risk sharing, so that there is little incentive to hold diversified portfolios. We show that the interaction of the following ingredients generates a realistic equity home bias: capital accumulation and international trade in stocks and bonds. In our model, domestic stocks are used to hedge fluctuations in local wage income. Terms of trade risk is hedged using bonds denominated in local goods and in foreign goods. In contrast to related models, the low level of international diversification does not depend on strongly countercyclical terms of trade. The model also reproduces the cyclical dynamics of foreign asset positions and of international capital flows.     

Spanish mutual fund fees and less sophisticated investors: examination and ethical implications

Some mutual funds not only apply the usual asset management and custodial fees, but also front loads and redemption fees as a kind of 'toll charge' payable on entering and/or leaving the fund. The aim of this work is to examine the implications of the different loads and fees applied to mutual fund investors in the Spanish market. The results show that there is a relationship between the various charges and fees. The fact that load fund companies charge higher management and custody fees proves the potential of the fund companies to impose higher fees on a segment of the clientele. The investors in load funds, which tend to be large in number of shareholders and belonging to banks and savings banks, are small investors who show a low cost sensitivity. A lower level of financial sophistication may be the reason for the apparent lower price awareness. The problem is that the investors in load funds are not financially compensated for the extra cost represented by the front-load and redemption fees. The only beneficiary seems to be the financial institution itself. On this view, the survival of load funds seems to depend on the lack of financial sophistication of their clientele, combined with market inefficiencies. It is worth asking about the ethics of a situation of market segmentation that allows managing institutions to benefit from the segment of the least sophisticated investors.     

Renegotiation, collective action clauses and sovereign debt markets

Collective action clauses (CACs) are provisions specifying that a supermajority of bondholders can change the terms of a bond. We study how CACs determine governments' fiscal incentives, sovereign bond prices, and default probabilities in environments with and without contingent debt and IMF presence. We claim that CACs are likely to be an irrelevant dimension of debt contracts in current sovereign debt markets because of the variety of instruments utilized by sovereigns and the implicit IMF guarantee. Nonetheless, under a new international bankruptcy regime like that recently proposed by the IMF, CACs can increase significantly the cost of borrowing for sovereigns, contrary to what is suggested in previous empirical literature.     

Endogenous financial intermediation and real effects of capital account liberalization

We consider lending and investment under asymmetric information in a small, developing economy. We allow different forms of financial contracts to arise endogenously. Financial intermediaries mitigate a moral hazard problem in investment choice through costly monitoring. We then examine the impact of opening the capital account on both welfare and the structure of lending contracts. Liberalizing the capital account may improve or worsen the efficiency of financial intermediaries, leading to an improvement or worsening of the aggregate composition of investment projects. We show that efficient financial intermediaries in the closed economy are neither necessary nor sufficient for a capital account liberalization to improve welfare.     

Sovereign debt crises and credit to the private sector

We use micro-level data to analyze emerging markets' private sector access to international debt markets during sovereign debt crises. We find that these crises are systematically accompanied by a decline in foreign credit to domestic private firms, both during debt renegotiations and for over two years after restructuring agreements are reached. This decline is large, statistically significant, and robust. We find that this effect is concentrated in the non-financial sector and is different for firms in the exporting and in the non-exporting sectors. We also find that the magnitude of the effect depends on the type of debt restructuring agreement.     

Global financial conditions,country spreads and macroeconomic fluctuations in emerging countries

This paper uses a panel structural vector autoregressive (VAR) model to investigate the extent to which global financial conditions, i.e., a global risk-free interest rate and global financial risk, and country spreads contribute to macroeconomic fluctuations in emerging countries. The main findings are: (1) global financial risk shocks explain about 20% of movements both in the country spread and in the aggregate activity in emerging economies. (2) The contribution of global risk-free interest rate shocks to macroeconomic fluctuations in emerging economies is negligible. Its role, which was emphasized in the literature, is taken up by global financial risk shocks. (3) Country spread shocks explain about 15 percent of the business cycles in emerging economies. (4) Interdependence between economic activity and the country spread is a key mechanism through which global financial shocks are transmitted to emerging economies.     

Why do foreigners invest in the United States?

Why are foreigners willing to invest over $2 trillion per year in the United States? This paper tests various hypotheses and finds that standard portfolio allocation models and diversification motives are poor predictors of foreign holdings of U.S. liabilities. Instead, foreigners hold greater shares of their investment portfolios in the United States if they have less developed financial markets. The magnitude of this effect decreases with income per capita. Countries that trade more with the United States also have greater portfolio shares in U.S. equity and bond markets. These results support recent theoretical work on the role of financial development in sustaining global imbalances and have important implications for whether the United States can continue to attract sufficient financing from abroad without major changes in asset prices and returns, especially in bond markets.     

Country spreads and emerging countries: Who drives whom?

This paper attempts to disentangle the intricate relation linking the world interest rate, country spreads, and emerging-market fundamentals. It does so by using a methodology that combines empirical and theoretical elements. The main findings are: (1) US interest rate shocks explain about 20% of movements in aggregate activity in emerging economies. (2) Country spread shocks explain about 12% of business cycles in emerging economies. (3) In response to an increase in US interest rates, country spreads first fall and then display a large, delayed overshooting; (4) US-interest-rate shocks affect domestic variables mostly through their effects on country spreads; (5) The feedback from emerging-market fundamentals to country spreads significantly exacerbates business-cycle fluctuations.     

Order flows and the exchange rate disconnect puzzle

The aim of this paper is to establish the link between the high frequency dynamics of spot exchange rates and developments in the macroeconomy. To do so, I first present a theoretical model of exchange-rate determination that bridges the gap between existing microstructure and traditional models. The model examines how dispersed microeconomic information known to individual agents outside the foreign exchange market is aggregated and transmitted to dealers via transaction flows (i.e., order flow); and how the information is then embedded in the spot exchange rate. I then report empirical evidence that strongly supports the presence of the link between the macroeconomy, order flow, and high frequency exchange rate returns implied by the model. In fact, my empirical results indicate that between 20 and 30% of the variance in excess currency returns over one- and two-month horizons can be linked back to developments in the macroeconomy. This level of explanatory power is an order of magnitude higher than that found in traditional models — even the newly developed monetary models incorporating central banks reaction functions. Moreover, it provides a straightforward solution to the exchange-rate disconnect puzzle. Namely, the high frequency behavior of spot exchange rates reflects the flow of new information reaching dealers concerning the slowly evolving state of the macroeconomy, rather than the effects of shocks that drive rapidly changing macroeconomic conditions.     

Detecting shift-contagion in currency and bond markets

This paper investigates why financial market crises often increase the interdependence between assets associated with different countries. Two sources of increased co-movement in asset returns are considered: (i) larger common shocks operating through standard cross-country linkages and (ii) changes in the structural transmission of shocks across countries, referred to as “shift-contagion”. To examine this issue, we develop a method for detecting shift-contagion with three notable features. First, parameters corresponding to the structural transmission of shocks across countries are identified in the presence of changing volatility regimes for the shocks. Second, the timing of changes in volatility is endogenously estimated instead of being exogenously assigned. Third, the countries in which crises originate need not be known or even included in the analysis. We apply the method to currency returns for developed countries and bond returns for emerging-market countries.     

Differentiation strategies in emerging markets: The case of Latin American agribusinesses

This study furthers the research agenda on Porter's generic strategies by exploring their implementation by firms that suffer from under representation in the literature. It focuses on agribusinesses based in emerging markets that specialize in high value added products. Relying on information collected through interviews, and a survey with 66 agribusinesses based in eight countries of Latin America, it examines the factors that distinguish firms implementing a differentiation strategy (DS). The findings provide interesting insights for scholars and practitioners alike, illustrating the strategic initiatives that DS firms use to ensure they command higher than average prices.     

Sovereign default, private sector creditors, and the IFIs

The data reveal that emerging market sovereign borrowing from International Financial Institutions (IFIs) is small, intermittent and countercyclical compared to that from private sector creditors. The IFI loan contracts offered to sovereigns differ from the private ones in that they are more enforceable and have conditionality arrangements attached to them. Taking these contractual differences as given, this paper builds a quantitative model of a sovereign borrower and argues that better enforceability of IFI loan contracts is the main institutional feature that explains the size and cyclicality while conditionality accounts for the intermittency of borrowing from the IFIs.     

Business cycles and monetary regimes in emerging economies: A role for a monopolistic banking sector

This study shows that the presence of imperfect competition in the banking system propagates external shocks and amplifies the business cycle. Strategic limit pricing, aimed at protecting retail niches from potential competitors, generates countercyclical bank markups. Markup increments during recessions directly increase borrowing costs for firms and indirectly damage the financial position of firms' balance-sheets, increasing the risk perception of lenders. I use Bayesian techniques and data from Argentina to show that the inclusion of monopolistic banking improves the fit of the New Keynesian small open economy model.     

Response strategies of local firms to import competition in emerging markets

Using a sample of 3808 firms from 1996 to 2007, the impact of three strategic options that can be implemented by local Asian (i.e., Indian) firms facing increased import competition in their domestic market is analyzed. On average, firms with greater investments in intangible resources and tighter product focus do better, while firms with greater international sales perform poorly compared to their peers. However, in industries characterized by high import competition, firms with international operations and product focus tend to have higher performance, while firms with intangible resources perform poorly.     

The impacts of trade liberalization on informal labor markets: A theoretical and empirical evaluation of the Brazilian case

Following trade liberalization, several developing countries experienced a sharp increase in the share of informal manufacturing employment. In this paper, I examine the impacts of trade liberalization on the labor markets of a small open economy, in an environment in which tariffs affect firms' payroll tax compliance decisions. I demonstrate that a reduction in domestic import tariffs reduces the average formal wage and show that the direction of the effect on the share of informal employment depends on the initial labor market conditions. A cut in trading partner import tariffs decreases the share of domestic informal employment and increases the average formal wage. I confirm the model's principal findings empirically, using data from the 1989–2001 Brazilian trade liberalization episode. I find the results robust to endogeneity and self-selection concerns, which are addressed, respectively, using instrumental variable and switching regression approaches.     

Financial liberalization and banking crises in emerging economies

Financial liberalization often leads to financial crises. This link has usually been attributed to poorly designed banking systems, an explanation that is largely static. In this paper we develop a dynamic explanation, by modelling the evolution of a newly-liberalized bank's opportunities and incentives to take on risk over time. The model reveals that even if a banking system is well-designed, in the sense of having good long-run properties, many countries will enjoy an initial period of rapid, low-risk growth and then enter a period with an elevated risk of banking crisis. This transition emerges because of the way in which the degree of foreign competition, the marginal product of capital, and the bank's own net worth simultaneously evolve.     

Charter value, Tobin's Q and bank risk during the subprime financial crisis

Charter value is important in the banking industry because of its ability to reduce the moral hazard incentives that result from government-provided deposit insurance. Previous research suggests that geographic deregulation in the 1970s and 1980s increased competition and eroded charter values. Yet, a common proxy for charter value, Tobin's Q, increased significantly in the 1990s and beyond even as bank deregulation continued. We show that Tobin's Q is a poor cardinal measure of charter value though it still has merit as an ordinal measure. Our findings suggest that charter value has been declining through time, contributing to the increase in risk-taking that led to the subprime financial crisis.     

Globalisation and factor returns in competitive markets

The standard competitive trade model, extended to include many goods and factors, is used to analyze the effect of goods and factor market integration on average international disparities in the real returns of internationally immobile factors. It is shown that goods market integration decreases international real return differentials for all factors. We derive sufficient conditions for this result to hold for the subgroup of internationally immobile factors as well. While there is a presumption for similar results to hold with international factor market integration, we show that this is true for international migration but in general not for international investment.