FDI in post-production services and product market competition

Post-production services, such as sales, distribution, and maintenance, comprise a crucial element of business activity. We explore an international duopoly model in which a foreign firm has the option of outsourcing post-production services to its domestic rival or providing those services by establishing its own facilities through FDI. We demonstrate that trade liberalization in goods may hurt domestic consumers and lower world welfare, and that the negative welfare impacts are turned into positive ones if service FDI is also liberalized. This finding yields important policy implications, given the reality that the progress of liberalization in service sectors is still limited.     

Potential FDI causing large distortions in domestic production

When a foreign firm enters a domestic market, either via exports or through foreign direct investment (FDI), one factor determining the most favourable entrance mode is the profitability of the market, which may not be directly observed by the foreign firm. If the domestic trade protection policy is within a certain range that causes the foreign entrant's decision to swing between the two entry modes, the final choice will depend on the foreign firm's belief about the profitability. In such a situation, a domestic incumbent firm wishing to prevent FDI will heavily distort its production downward to convince the foreign competitor that the market is not profitable. When making trade policy, such strategic behaviour on the part of the domestic firm should be taken into account.     

Optimal industrial policy in vertically related markets

This paper examines the optimal industrial policy for an industry with a vertical market structure. A home firm and a foreign firm both import an intermediate good from a third country to produce a final good. How the home country government sets the optimal industrial policy has to take account of both profit shifting between the two final good producers and between the intermediate good producer and the home firm. We explain how the optimal industrial policy depends on the slope of the demand curve, the levels of technology spillover and product differentiation. In particular, there exists a critical level of technology spillover at which investments of the firms are neither strategic substitutes nor complements and the optimal industrial policy is always investment tax.     

Information, incentives and multinational firms

I present a model that explains a multinational firm's choice of organizational form. If a firm in the developed country outsources the production of its intermediate goods to a supplier in the developing country, it faces an adverse selection problem. If it chooses to produce the intermediate goods in its own subsidiary in the developing country, it faces an inefficient monitoring problem. My analysis of this tradeoff provides a new explanation for the observation that FDI is concentrated in capital intensive industries and yields two empirical hypotheses: more firms should adopt outsourcing instead of FDI after trade liberalization; the share of intra-firm trade in total trade should be increasing in the degree of productivity dispersion across intermediate goods suppliers in the developing country.     

Optimal trade,industrial, and privatization policies in a mixed duopoly with strategic managerial incentives

Abstract

This paper examines optimal trade, industrial, and privatization policies in a home-market model of mixed international duopoly with strategic managerial incentives. Under linear demand and constant marginal costs, the optimal degree of privatization is shown to depend crucially on cost and demand parameters and on the availability of strategic trade and industrial policies. If both firms are equally efficient, optimal trade and industrial policies drive out the foreign firm and the privatization policy loses its effect on national welfare; however, if the home firm is less efficient, then full privatization combined with an import tariff and a production subsidy is optimal for the home country, while an export subsidy is optimal for the foreign country. If trade and industrial policies are unavailable and if both firms are equally efficient, full state-ownership, which drives out the foreign firm, becomes optimal; however, if the home firm is less efficient, only partial privatization is optimal, The state-ownership share is increased if either the market size grows, the home firm's efficiency increases, or the foreign firm's efficiency decreases. Further, the paper demonstrates the potential conflict between privatization and trade liberalization policies.     

国际外包承接对我国内资企业生产率的影响

跨国外包作为产品内专业化分工在国际市场的延伸,使参与其中的国家和行业生产都得到了专业化分工的好处。作为发展中国家,我国内资企业多利用劳动资源优势参与国际分工,即以外包的承接方身份参与跨国外包。本文首次从外包承接企业角度出发,利用我国制造业内资企业面板数据,实证分析了企业承接外包对其生产率的影响。结果表明,内资企业承接国内的外包业务并不会提高企业的生产率;但是企业承接国际外包会提高企业的生产率。这说明,内资企业在承接国际外包的情况下,能够从国外的外包商那里获得相应的生产技术、工艺或者经营管理知识,从而提高了企业的技术水平,促进了生产率的提高。     

全球价值链分工下区域贸易协定能降低服务贸易成本吗

全球价值链分工下服务的作用愈发凸显,服务贸易的新形式丰富了区域贸易协定影响服务贸易成本的渠道。本文从中间投入和最终需求两个维度分析了区域贸易协定对不同类型服务贸易成本的影响效果和机制。结果表明:单纯签订区域贸易协定对服务贸易成本的抑制作用并不显著,提高区域贸易协定的深度将显著降低服务贸易成本。区域贸易协定可以显著降低中间投入服务贸易成本,对最终需求服务贸易成本的抑制效应不显著。区域贸易协定的服务贸易自由化效果存在非对称性,北北型区域贸易协定对服务贸易成本的抑制效应强于南北型。北北型区域贸易协定可以通过减少监管分歧和货物贸易自由化效果外溢两条途径降低服务贸易成本,南北型区域贸易协定则仅可以通过货物贸易自由化的外溢效应来降低服务贸易成本。因此,中国应积极与发达国家开展高质量区域贸易协定谈判,通过提高区域贸易协定深度充分发挥其服务贸易自由化效果。     

Defending a Domestic Position Against Global Entries

ABSTRACT

The article offers a systematic review of strategic options available to incumbents coping with threats and attacks by a global firm. The framework makes it possible to review and analyze action alternatives based on the entry stage, the attack focus, and defense tactics. Even though the globalization process has exposed domestic incumbents to greater threats, incumbents' options have also increased. The doors of trade liberalization swing both ways. Opportunities for collaboration increase while anti-globalization movements and national patriotism can be mobilized for effective defense. The framework presented in this article builds on existing strategic theories and concepts in addition to published case studies. It offers a flexible and dynamic approach for reviewing alternative strategies for implementation and research.     

贸易自由化能否促进居民食物消费结构升级——基于GTAP模型的模拟研究

本文重点探讨贸易自由化对中国居民食物消费结构升级影响的路径机制。文章运用全球贸易分析模型(GTAP)模拟了四种贸易自由化政策情景的经济效应,并利用AnalyseGE程序解构了进口变动效应,以探究贸易自由化对我国居民食物消费结构升级的影响路径。研究发现:贸易自由化使国际市场的肉制品和奶制品等高附加值食物的价格优势凸显,进口扩张能够有效缓解我国居民食物消费的需求增长与国内有效供给的失衡性矛盾;贸易自由化推动居民食物消费结构的优化升级,改善居民经济福利;贸易自由化对居民食物消费结构升级影响路径的替代效应要远高于收入效应,竞争效应则需要经过长期的产业结构调整来发挥效用。     

我国战略性贸易政策实践

本文对改革开放以来我国的战略性贸易政策实践进行了分析。虽然我国政府从未明确提出要实行战略性贸易政策,但是通过和日本经济高速增长时期的战略性贸易政策相比较,可以发现,在我国广泛推行的产业政策中,战略性贸易政策早就存在。只是由于产业组织政策失效所导致的市场竞争程度低下,使得我国战略性贸易政策的实施效果很不理想。因此,协调产业政策和竞争政策,打破地方保护,建立国内统一大市场就成为我国今后战略性贸易政策成功的关键。     

Trade and technology adoption

This paper endogenizes firms' choices of production technology in what would be a standard Melitz model otherwise. The responses of firms' productivity to trade liberalization are heterogenous: exporters, on average, improve their level of technology adoption, whereas nonexporters downgrade their level of technology adoption. The degree to which firms adjust production technology depends on domestic market size, export destination market size, trade impediments, and export status. The conflicting empirical results of the impact of trade liberalization on exporters' productivity are rationalized by showing that changes in different trade costs (variable vs. fixed costs) affect firms' productivity differently. We calibrate the model's parameters to match firms' characteristics in the global economy. The results indicate that endogenous productivity increases the gains from trade liberalization.     

产品内贸易、市场结构与福利效应:跨国公司海外扩张模式的解读

本文旨在通过构建一个包含中间品市场和最终品市场在内的产品内贸易模型,考察差异化市场结构对跨国公司选择垂直FDI和外包两种海外扩张模式的影响。研究结果表明,在上、下游市场之间存在某种传导机制的情况下,一体式非完全专业化的生产方式与产品内分工贸易的规模负相关,不断增加的最终品市场的垄断强度,不仅会导致跨国公司内部所有生产要素的福利水平遭受不同程度的损失,还会进一步缩小产品内贸易的规模。     

The impact of trade liberalization on productivity: Evidence from India's formal and informal manufacturing sectors

Despite a large literature investigating the impacts of trade on firm productivity, there is almost no evidence on how small firms react to trade liberalization. Using a unique dataset of firm-level surveys that are representative of the entire Indian manufacturing industry, I show that India's unilateral reduction in final goods tariffs increased the average productivity of small, informal firms, which account for 80% of Indian manufacturing employment but have been excluded from previous studies. In contrast, the increase in productivity among larger, formal firms was driven primarily by the concurrent reduction in input tariffs. By examining the effect of the tariff liberalization on the distributions of productivity and firm size, I find evidence consistent with the exit of the smallest, least productive firms from the informal sector. In addition, I find that although the decline in final goods tariffs did not significantly impact average formal sector productivity, it did increase productivity among the top quantiles of the distribution.     

The impact of trade liberalization on productivity: Evidence from India's formal and informal manufacturing sectors

Despite a large literature investigating the impacts of trade on firm productivity, there is almost no evidence on how small firms react to trade liberalization. Using a unique dataset of firm-level surveys that are representative of the entire Indian manufacturing industry, I show that India's unilateral reduction in final goods tariffs increased the average productivity of small, informal firms, which account for 80% of Indian manufacturing employment but have been excluded from previous studies. In contrast, the increase in productivity among larger, formal firms was driven primarily by the concurrent reduction in input tariffs. By examining the effect of the tariff liberalization on the distributions of productivity and firm size, I find evidence consistent with the exit of the smallest, least productive firms from the informal sector. In addition, I find that although the decline in final goods tariffs did not significantly impact average formal sector productivity, it did increase productivity among the top quantiles of the distribution.     

The nature of trade,global production fragmentation and inflationary dynamics: Cross-country evidence

This study investigates under which circumstances trade has impact on inflation dynamics by examining the independent effects of trade intensity, intra-industry trade and trade on value added. Trade in goods is decomposed into consumption (final) goods and intermediate inputs to deepen the assessment of the role of the globalisation of production activities on inflation dynamics. Open-economy new Keynesian Phillips curve (NKPC) analyses suggest that inflation is sensitive to domestic factors and that the relevance of external factors changes with respect to the nature of trade, country groups and time. Vertical intra-industry trade in intermediate inputs and value-added trade play important role, whereas final goods trade has no statistically significant effect on inflation dynamics.     

Trade liberalization, outsourcing, and the hold-up problem

This paper shows that, in a bilateral relationship where a foreign supplier has to make a relationship-specific investment but cannot enforce a complete contract, the standard hold-up problem of underinvestment is aggravated when trade incurs a tariff. In this context, we identify two new channels through which trade liberalization enhances international trade. First, lower tariffs increase the incentives of foreign suppliers to undertake cost-reducing investments. Second, lower tariffs may prompt vertical multinational integration. These indirect effects imply that responses of trade volumes to trade liberalization are greater than standard trade models suggest and help explain current trends toward foreign outsourcing and intra-firm trade.     

The impacts of trade liberalization on informal labor markets: A theoretical and empirical evaluation of the Brazilian case

Following trade liberalization, several developing countries experienced a sharp increase in the share of informal manufacturing employment. In this paper, I examine the impacts of trade liberalization on the labor markets of a small open economy, in an environment in which tariffs affect firms' payroll tax compliance decisions. I demonstrate that a reduction in domestic import tariffs reduces the average formal wage and show that the direction of the effect on the share of informal employment depends on the initial labor market conditions. A cut in trading partner import tariffs decreases the share of domestic informal employment and increases the average formal wage. I confirm the model's principal findings empirically, using data from the 1989–2001 Brazilian trade liberalization episode. I find the results robust to endogeneity and self-selection concerns, which are addressed, respectively, using instrumental variable and switching regression approaches.     

UNIONIZATION AND STRATEGIC TRADE POLICY

This article examines the effect of unionization on welfare and trade policy using a model of duopolists competing in a third market. The traditional result that the presence of a union necessitates a stronger strategic trade policy to reach the optimal level of welfare hinges on the mode of competition. With Bertrand duopolists, a union can be welfare-improving; it can also lead to a weaker trade policy, or even reverse the direction of the optimal policy. Our results highlight the importance for trade policy of understanding the nature of firm behavior and the institutional features of the labor market.     

Markets for risk and openness to trade: how are they related?

If protectionist trade policies aim to insure domestic industries against swings in world market prices, the development of financial markets could lead to trade liberalization. Likewise, trade liberalization could lead to the development of financial markets that help agents diversify the added risks. In this paper, we empirically address the hypothesis that there is a positive interdependence between financial development and liberal trade policies. We find a positive and economically significant relationship between the two, with causation running in both directions. The results are, however, somewhat dependent on the measure of trade policy being used.     

Good jobs, bad jobs, and trade liberalization

How do labor markets adjust to trade liberalization? Leading models of intraindustry trade (Krugman (1981), Melitz (2003)) assume homogeneous workers and full employment, and thus predict that all workers win from trade liberalization, a conclusion at odds with the public debate. Our paper develops a new model that merges Melitz (2003) with Shapiro and Stiglitz (1984), so also links product market churning to labor market churning. Workers care about their jobs because the model features aggregate unemployment and jobs that pay different wages to identical workers. Simulations show that, for reasonable parameter values, as many as one-fourth of existing “good jobs” (those with above average wage) may be destroyed in a liberalization. This is true even as the model shows minimal impact on aggregate unemployment and quite substantial aggregate gains from trade.