MEN, MONEY, AND MEDALS: AN ECONOMETRIC ANALYSIS OF THE OLYMPIC GAMES

Abstract.  Population size and the level of income per capita are major determinants of the number of medals won by a country in the 1952–2004 Olympic Games. A parsimonious count (Poisson) model fits the data very well: the squared correlation between the predicted value of the number of medals won and the observed value is about 56%. There exist strong country-specific effects in Olympic medals results. While the USA and China tend to outperform other countries relative to their size and income, the Asian dragons tend to under-perform in the Games.     

中国对外贸易和FDI相互关系的研究

本文基于1980—2001全国的时间序列数据,对中国对外贸易与FDI 之间的关系进行了格兰杰因果关系检验,并以各省及东中西部三大区域数据作统计描述辅证之。文章得到以下结果:中国对外贸易与 FDI 之间的互补作用远大于替代作用,各省市 FDI 与贸易之间的关系存在着惊人的一致性;FDI与制成品的出口具有双向的因果关系;虽然长期中 FDI 对制成品的进口具有促进作用,但短期中 FDI 对制成品的进口具有替代效应;FDI 对贸易的短期影响具有滞后性,滞后三期的效果最为显著。     

ROADS AND POVERTY IN RURAL LAOS: AN ECONOMETRIC ANALYSIS

The relationship between poverty incidence and road development is analyzed econometrically in this paper, in the context of rural Laos. Between 1997–1998 and 2002–2003, rural poverty incidence in Laos declined by 9.5% of the rural population. Approximately 13% of this decline can be attributed to improved road access. There is now a high return to providing dry weather access to the most isolated households of Laos, those with no road access at all. They constitute 31.6% of all rural households in Laos and are being left behind by the development of the market economy.     

AN ANALYSIS OF TRANSBOUNDARY POLLUTION AND THE GAINS FROM TRADE: RECONSIDERATION

Abstract.  This paper investigates the effects of transboundary pollution on trade and welfare in a two-country, two-good, one-factor model in which pollution is treated as a negative cross-industry externality. It is shown that trade may improve countries' natural environment and consequently raises the countries' welfare if a comparative advantage in a pollution-producing good is held by a country that greatly surpasses the other in pollution abatement technology. This result has not been obtained from existing models of this type.     

扩大农业对外开放:现状、趋势及建议

本文首先全面系统地总结了"十五"时期以来我国农业对外开放的基本情况,在阐述农业对外开放取得主要成效及存在问题的基础上,深入剖析"十二五"时期扩大农业对外开放面临的新情况和新问题,最后结合我国实际情况,提出了扩大农业对外开放的总体思路、原则及政策建议。     

THE IMPACT OF CHANGES IN TERMS OF TRADE ON A SYSTEM OF NATIONAL ACCOUNTS: AN ATTEMPTED SYNTHESIS*

The objective of this paper is to reformulate the terms of trade effect within a framework of national accounts in constant prices. The issue has been discussed by Professor R. C. Geary, Dr. G. Stuvel and others. In what follows the author proposes a new formula for deflating the net factor income from abroad and the net lending to the rest of the world. It is shown that the terms of trade effect which follows from the formula be expressed as a synthesis of Geary's and Stuvel's approaches. The author also shows that a similar approach be applied to the construction of the sector production account in constant prices. By formulating an appropriate deflator which is right for deflating factor incomes he concludes that the terms of trade arising from changes in inputs prices relative to output price be closely associated with the term which expresses the effect of productivity changes.     

对世界农产品贸易中的比较优势的检验

该文在利莫尔、皮特森检验的基础上,利用61个国家的截面数据,对主要农产品谷物、棉花、油料、肉类、糖以及全部农产品的国际贸易是否符合比较优势原理进行了计量检验.该文的结论是:资源禀赋仍是解释农产品贸易格局的主要因素,各国市场经济的成熟程度对农产品比较优势的发挥具有显著影响.     

TRENDS IN HOUSEHOLD WEALTH IN THE UNITED STATES, 1962–83 AND 1983–89

Using the 1983 and 1989 Surveys of Consumer Finances, I find evidence of sharply increasing house-hold wealth inequality over this period. Whereas mean wealth increased by 23 percent in real terms, median wealth grew by only 8 percent. The share of the top one-half percentile rose by five percentage points, while the wealth of the bottom two quintiles showed an absolute decline. The Gini coefficient increased from 0.80 to 0.84. Almost all the growth in real wealth accrued to the top 20 percent of wealthholders. In contrast, the degree of wealth inequality was almost identical in 1983 as in 1962, and real wealth growth was more evenly distributed across the wealth distribution. There is also evidence that the sharp increase in wealth inequality from 1983 to 1989 was due to a correspondingly sharp rise in income inequality, the increase of stock prices relative to housing prices, and relatively slow inflation.     

对偶性一般均衡分析与国际贸易理论的深化-基于迪克西特与诺曼著《国际贸易理论》的分析

本文以迪克西特与诺曼合著的《国际贸易理论》一书为参照,分析了现代贸易理论所面临的三种挑战,探讨了对偶性一般均衡分析方法在应对这些实践挑战与深化国际贸易理论的比较优势,并且揭示了对偶性一般均衡分析方法由一种特殊的分析技术成长为国际贸易研究中的主流分析范式的过程与原因。     

对偶性一般均衡分析与国际贸易理论的深化-基于迪克西特与诺曼著《国际贸易理论》的分析

该文以迪克西特与诺曼合著的《国际贸易理论》一书为参照,分析了现代贸易理论所面临的三种挑战,探讨了对偶性一般均衡分析方法在应对这些实践挑战与深化国际贸易理论的比较优势,并且揭示了对偶性一般均衡分析方法由一种特殊的分析技术成长为国际贸易研究中的主流分析范式的过程与原因.     

FACTOR ACCUMULATION AND THE TERMS OF TRADE: APPLICATIONS TO THE ASIAN FINANCIAL CRISIS

Abstract.  This paper investigates the effects of population growth and capital accumulation on trade and welfare. In the absence of a terms of trade effect, an population increase reduces the standard of living and causes a reduction in welfare. An increase in population causes deterioration in the terms of trade of a labour abundant country, whereas capital accumulation improves them, regardless of the source of growth. Moreover, an increase in the South's population is immiserizing.