Recent advances in financial networks and agent-based model validation

We introduce the papers appearing in the special issue of this journal associated with the WEHIA 2015. The papers in issue deal with two growing fields in the in the literature inspired by the complexity-based approach to economic analysis. The first group of contributions develops network models of financial systems and show how these models can shed light on relevant issues that emerged in the aftermath of the last financial crisis. The second group of contributions deals with the issue of validation of agent-based model. Agent-based models have proven extremely useful to account for key features economic dynamics that are usually neglected by more standard models. At the same time, agent-based models have been criticized for the lack of an adequate validation against empirical data. The works in this issue propose useful techniques to validate agent-based models, thus contributing to the wider diffusion of these models in the economic discipline.     

Global imbalances and dynamics of international financial markets

We provide an overview of the special issue “Global Imbalances and dynamics of international financial markets”. This special issue, which is associated with the 7th International Finance Conference, features research papers dealing with the impact of global imbalances, market complexity, and the impact of the recent global financial crisis on the conduct of monetary policies, financial market dynamics, financial stability, and risk management models.     

Undecidability, Computation Universality and Minimality in Economic Dynamics*

An attempt is made, in this paper, to pose questions about economic dynamics in the broad areas of microeconomics, behavioural economics and macroeconomics from the point of view of classical recursion theory. This viewpoint makes it imperative that the fundamental economic entities in question are given an algorithmic formulation. Algorithms, in turn, are intrinsically dynamic objects which, if they are nontrivial, encapsulate nonlinear dynamics in novel ways such that it is possible to ask decidability questions and obtain effective answers about the economic entities.
It is shown, formally, that rational economic behaviour is comfortably consistent with nonmaximum, disequilibrium and unstable economic dynamics in core areas of microeconomics, behavioural economics and macroeconomics.     

Estimating the elasticity of intertemporal substitution with leverage

Following the recent literature on intermediary asset pricing models, this paper argues that the marginal utility of wealth of financial intermediaries can be used to generate enough volatility and counter-cyclicality on the recursive preference-based stochastic discount factor. Hence, a dynamic econometric strategy of an asset pricing model with the market portfolio return and the leverage growth of financial intermediaries allows for a sensible economic estimate of the elasticity of intertemporal substitution. On the contrary, the same framework with alternative measures of consumption produces extremely poor economic results.     

Impact of Islamic banking development and major macroeconomic variables on economic growth for Islamic countries: Evidence from panel smooth transition models

This study examines the nonlinear relationship between Islamic banking development, major macroeconomic variables and economic growth in Islamic countries. Using the panel smooth transition model, the results show a positive nonlinear relationship between Islamic banking development and economic growth. Moreover, the relationship between the macroeconomic variables and economic growth is asymmetric and regime-dependent. Further, by using the dynamic panel quantile model, we show that for many cases the Islamic banking variables lead economic growth across the quantiles. More specifically, foreign direct investment, oil production and inflation have a positive impact on economic growth during the normal financial development state, while government consumption, one-lag economic growth, terms of trade and financial development have a negative impact on economic growth for this state. The human capital index, education and the rule of law have an insignificant impact, regardless of the prevailing regime. The results for the separated oil-importing and oil-exporting economies are generally consistent with the combined sample regarding the Islamic banking development variables. As for the macro variables, they have a positive and significant (insignificant) effect on EG for the oil-importing (oil-exporting) economies for almost all models.     

MACRO‐FINANCE LINKAGES

In this survey, I review the academic and policy‐oriented literature on the linkages between financial markets and the rest of the economy. First, I summarize the leading economic theories for why the financial sector can influence the macroeconomy. Second, I consider empirical research on spillovers from the financial sector to the rest of the economy, as well as across financial markets in different countries. Third, I discuss key monetary policy debates regarding the appropriate response of central banks to financial conditions. Finally, I conclude with an overview of the major gaps in the existing literature.     

FROM INSTITUTIONS TO FINANCIAL DEVELOPMENT AND GROWTH: WHAT ARE THE LINKS?

This paper presents an integrated overview of the literature linking institutions, financial development, and economic growth. From the large body of research on institutional development, the paper first selects those contributions that make it possible to study the role of institutional arrangements in ameliorating/worsening the information frictions and transaction costs that characterize the development of financial markets. The paper then investigates the theoretical mechanisms by which these specific frictions affect economic growth and presents the stock of empirical evidence quantifying the impact of institutions on growth through financial development.     

金融渗透理论与企业理财

随着市场经济的发展和经济全球化的深入,企业理财理论有必要从开放、动态的视角来分析和透视企业的理财活动。文章应用金融渗透理论重新审视了企业价值的创造过程。企业的历史沿革反映了金融渗透的互动过程。在某一特定时空条件下,金融渗透处于动态的均衡状态。金融市场的流动性创造、风险规避、资金融通、控制权市场等四项基本功能的发挥直接影响到金融渗透的程度和速度。文章进一步分析得出,宏观经济部门和市场微观组织的金融渗透与金融市场的结构密不可分。     

THE FINANCIAL REPRESSION‐LIBERALIZATION DEBATE: TAKING STOCK,LOOKING FOR A SYNTHESIS

Financial repression and liberalization became the object of fierce debates between academics and policy makers since the early 1970s. As of the late 1980s, financial liberalization became also part of the ‘Structural Adjustment Programs’ sponsored by the International Monetary Fund and the World Bank. However, the literature on financial repression and liberalization remains controversial on its theoretical conclusions and policy implications. Given its importance for both the theory and policy of economic development and growth, this paper looks for a possible synthesis. After reviewing the theoretical contributions and empirical studies under the headings of the McKinnon–Shaw and new structuralists models, the survey concludes that a new synthesis might be found in the Post‐Keynesian attempt to take an institutional perspective within a globalised financial and economic environment.     

New methods for analyzing structural models of labor force dynamics

The economic theory of decision-making under uncertainty is used to produce three econometric models of dynamic discrete choice: (1) for a single spell of unemployment; (2) for an equilibrium two-state model of employment and non-employment; (3) for a general three-state model with a non-market sector. The paper provides a structural economic motivation for the continuous time Markov (or more generally ‘competing risks’) model widely used in longitudinal analysis in biostatistics and sociology, and it extends previous work on dynamic discrete choice to a continuous time setting. An important feature of identification analysis is separation of economic parameters that can only be identified by assuming arbitrary functional forms from economic parameters that can be identified by non-parametric procedures. The paper demonstrates that most econometric models for the analysis of truncated data are non-parametrically under-identified. It also demonstrates that structural estimators frequently violate standard regularity conditions. The standard asymptotic theory is modified to account for this essential feature of many structural models of labor force dynamics. Empirical estimates of an equilibrium two-state model of employment and non-employment are presented.     

CO‐INTEGRATING VAR MODELS AND ECONOMIC POLICY

This paper surveys some relevant contributions to the economic literature on co‐integrating vector autoregressive (VAR) models [vector error correction mechanisms (VECMs)], emphasizing their usefulness for economic policy. It further discusses some theoretical aspects that are necessary for a complete understanding of their potential. The theoretical introduction of the co‐integrating VAR model is followed by an illustration of its applications to monetary policy, fiscal policy and exchanges rates as well as in establishing the effects of structural bilateral shocks between countries (the so‐called global VAR, or GVAR, models). Special attention is paid to the VECM capacities of being used in conjunction with dynamic stochastic general equilibrium models and of jointly specifying the short‐ and long‐run dynamics, thus representing the steady‐state of economic systems (by means of the co‐integration relations) and the short‐run dynamics around it.     

Interactions between financial constraints and economic growth

The financial economy and the real economy are interconnected through various, complex, and evolving transmission mechanisms, whose literary coverage is far from comprehensive. In this context, we wish to contribute to the literature on the interactions between financial constraints and economic growth. We introduce financial dynamics in the R&D-based growth literature, by bringing Bernanke, Gertler and Gilchrist’s (1999) informational asymmetries into Romer’s (1990) growth model. With the developed framework, our main goal is to examine if and how such asymmetries impact economic growth. We find that the overall impact of this form of financial constraints on long-term growth is negative.     

An Exegesis on Currency and Banking Crises

Abstract.  This paper reviews the literature on currency and banking crises. Currency and banking crises are characterized according to some standards in the literature and their historical record summarized. The development of the literature from first through fourth‐generation, or so‐called 'institutional' models is reviewed. A digression on institutions is provided along with some sidebars on the development of the literature on institutions as it relates to economic growth. The empirical research on third‐generation (or twin crises) models and on institutional models of currency and banking crises, which are so far scarce, is covered too. A summary of the main policy issues for dealing with financial crises is presented. The paper closes with an emphasis on institutions and a call for more research directed at institutions and their role in the financial system.     

A General Approach to Testing Volatility Models in Time Series

Volatility models have been playing important roles in economics and finance. Using a generalized spectral second order derivative approach, we propose a new class of generally applicable omnibus tests for the adequacy of linear and nonlinear volatility models. Our tests have a convenient asymptotic null N(0,1) distribution, and can detect a wide range of misspecifications for volatility dynamics, including both neglected linear and nonlinear volatility dynamics. Distinct from the existing diagnostic tests for volatility models, our tests are robust to time-varying higher order moments of unknown form (e.g., time-varying skewness and kurtosis). They check a large number of lags and are therefore expected to be powerful against neglected volatility dynamics that occurs at higher order lags or display long memory properties. Despite using a large number of lags, our tests do not suffer much from the loss of a large number of degrees of freedom, because our approach naturally discounts higher order lags, which is consistent with the stylized fact that economic or financial markets are affected more by the recent past events than by the remote past events. No specific estimation method is required, and parameter estimation uncertainty has no impact on the convenient limit N(0,1) distribution of the test statistics. Moreover, there is no need to formulate an alternative volatility model, and only estimated standardized residuals are needed to implement our tests. We do not have to calculate tedious and model-specific score functions or derivatives of volatility models with respect to estimated parameters, which are required in some existing popular diagnostic tests for volatility models. We examine the finite sample performance of the proposed tests. It is documented that the new tests are rather powerful in detecting neglected nonlinear volatility dynamics which the existing tests can easily miss. They are useful diagnostic tools for practitioners when modelling volatility dynamics.     

Recent developments in financial economics and econometrics: An overview

Research papers in empirical finance and financial econometrics are among the most widely cited, downloaded and viewed articles in the discipline of Finance. The special issue presents several papers by leading scholars in the field on “Recent Developments in Financial Economics and Econometrics”. The breadth of coverage is substantial, and includes original research and comprehensive review papers on theoretical, empirical and numerical topics in Financial Economics and Econometrics by leading researchers in finance, financial economics, financial econometrics and financial statistics. The purpose of this special issue on “Recent Developments in Financial Economics and Econometrics” is to highlight several novel and significant developments in financial economics and financial econometrics, specifically dynamic price integration in the global gold market, a conditional single index model with local covariates for detecting and evaluating active management, whether the Basel Accord has improved risk management during the global financial crisis, the role of banking regulation in an economy under credit risk and liquidity shock, separating information maximum likelihood estimation of the integrated volatility and covariance with micro-market noise, stress testing correlation matrices for risk management, whether bank relationship matters for corporate risk taking, with evidence from listed firms in Taiwan, pricing options on stocks denominated in different currencies, with theory and illustrations, EVT and tail-risk modelling, with evidence from market indices and volatility series, the economics of data using simple model free volatility in a high frequency world, arbitrage-free implied volatility surfaces for options on single stock futures, the non-uniform pricing effect of employee stock options using quantile regression, nonlinear dynamics and recurrence plots for detecting financial crisis, how news sentiment impacts asset volatility, with evidence from long memory and regime-switching approaches, quantitative evaluation of contingent capital and its applications, high quantiles estimation with Quasi-PORT and DPOT, with an application to value-at-risk for financial variables, evaluating inflation targeting based on the distribution of inflation and inflation volatility, the size effects of volatility spillovers for firm performance and exchange rates in tourism, forecasting volatility with the realized range in the presence of noise and non-trading, using CARRX models to study factors affecting the volatilities of Asian equity markets, deciphering the Libor and Euribor spreads during the subprime crisis, information transmission between sovereign debt CDS and other financial factors for Latin America, time-varying mixture GARCH models and asymmetric volatility, and diagnostic checking for non-stationary ARMA models with an application to financial data.     

中小企业融资探索——基于金融创新角度

中小企业是国民经济中一支重要的力量。融资难的问题一直是制约我国中小企业发展的障碍。解决这个问题需要从社会经济各个方面着手。从金融创新的角度出发,分析中小企业的资源、信用和风险状况,得出融资难的深层原因。根据金融创新的原理,针对不同类型的中小企业,分别设计了创新的金融工具,来拓展融资渠道。     

Evaluating factor forecasts for the UK: The role of asset prices

This paper applies a large data set, consisting of 167 monthly time series for the UK, both economic and financial, to simulate out-of-sample predictions of industrial production, inflation, 3-month Treasury Bills, and other variables. Fifteen dynamic factor models that allow forecasting based on large panels of time series are considered. The performances of these factor models are then compared to the following competing models: a simple univariate autoregressive, a vector autoregressive, a leading indicator, and a Phillips curve models. The results show that the best dynamic factor models outperform the competing models in forecasting at 6-, 12-, and 24-month horizons. Thus, the financial markets may have predictive power for the economic activity. This can be a useful tool for central banks and financial institutions, which may use the factor models to construct leading indicators of the economic conditions. In addition, researchers can see a strategic application of factor models.     

The dynamics of business service exchanges: Insights from logistics outsourcing

This paper offers insights about the dynamics of business service exchanges. We draw on the interaction approach, contracting theory and the notion of qualification from economic sociology to develop an analysis frame for such dynamics. We then apply this frame to a single, longitudinal case study. Contrary to the extant service supply literature assuming that service definitions remain (or should remain) fixed throughout the purchasing process, our findings suggest that, under high uncertainty conditions, the service exchange object is (re)shaped through iterative cycles of stabilisation and destabilisation. This study also reveals a connection between service definition and relationship governance dynamics—uncertainty and opportunism risks related to service destabilisation can be managed through dynamic deployment of relational, contractual and economic mechanisms. This paper also contributes to our understanding of the contract as basis for interaction and openness and offers an extension of qualification theory to complex business-to-business (B2B) service settings.     

Robustness and the general dynamic factor model with infinite-dimensional space: Identification,estimation, and forecasting

General dynamic factor models have demonstrated their capacity to circumvent the curse of dimensionality in the analysis of high-dimensional time series and have been successfully considered in many economic and financial applications. As second-order models, however, they are sensitive to the presence of outliers—an issue that has not been analyzed so far in the general case of dynamic factors with possibly infinite-dimensional factor spaces (Forni et al. 2000, 2015, 2017). In this paper, we consider this robustness issue and study the impact of additive outliers on the identification, estimation, and forecasting performance of general dynamic factor models. Based on our findings, we propose robust versions of identification, estimation, and forecasting procedures. The finite-sample performance of our methods is evaluated via Monte Carlo experiments and successfully applied to a classical data set of 115 US macroeconomic and financial time series.     

The behavior of speculative prices and the consistency of economic models

Modern financial economic theory suggest that changes in speculative prices should follow simple ‘fair game’ processes in an informationally efficient capital market. The observation that changes in speculative prices follow simple time series processes both supports this theoretical proposition and suggest restrictions on the transfer functions of structural econometric models in which speculative prices appear as output variables. The simplicity of the time series processes for observed changes in speculative prices are shown to impose strong restrictions on potential equilibrium models of asset pricing, informational disequilibrium models of financial markets, and many monetary and macroeconomic models as well.