Balance sheet expansion and economic growth in China: Crowd in or crowd out?

Balance sheet expansion is crucial to understand the historic path, current slowdown and future trend of economic growth in China. As the financial system transforms national savings into investment, balance sheet expands simultaneously. According to changing impacts of balance sheet expansion on real economy, economic growth in China from 1998 to 2016 can be divided into the crowd-in stage and the crowd-out stage. In the first stage (1998–2007), balance sheet expansion crowded China's real economy in, raised TFP dramatically and accelerated economic growth. In the second stage (2008–2016), balance sheet expansion crowded China's real economy out, with stagnant TFP and decelerated economic growth. Balance sheet expansion has slowed down since 2014, but it continues to exert crowding out effects on China's real economy. We argue that balance sheet expansion is crucial for China's future economic growth. In the long term, structural reforms, especially reforms in the financial system, could increase growth potential significantly. In the short term, financial system reforms should focus on generating sufficient cash flows to boost aggregate demand.     

从积极的资产负债表管理机制看次贷危机的去杠杆化

在积极资产负债表管理机制中,杠杆率的变化和资产负债表规模之间是正相关的。美国次级贷款演变为全面危机的根源在于,当金融中介机构的资产负债表普遍很强大时,为了利用剩余资产,放大的杠杆率,有限的次级贷款风险被积极的资产负债表管理机制放大了。正确认识资产负债表管理机制与杠杆率的关系,有助于说明次贷危机去杠杆化的原因、过程和去杠杆化的国际传导。     

Macroeconomic effects of financial stress and the role of monetary policy: a VAR analysis for the euro area

This paper analyses an otherwise standard macro-financial VAR model for the euro area that includes - apart from conventional measures of output, inflation and monetary policy - a composite indicator of systemic financial stress, namely the CISS index, and total assets of the ECB balance sheet capturing the stance of unconventional monetary policy. I find that the CISS contributes significantly to the dynamics of the macroeconomy and exerts a strong influence on monetary policy when looking at both policy rates and the ECB balance sheet. The significance of the CISS appears robust to the inclusion of a broad set of real and financial control variables. Based on tests of direct versus indirect (Granger-)causality patterns proposed in Hsiao (1982), I also find that unlike unconventional policy as measured by ECB balance sheet growth, the policy rate does not seem to react directly to variations in financial stress but rather indirectly through the impact of financial stress on macroeconomic conditions. These different patterns of reaction are broadly consistent with the ECB’s “separation principle”. The estimated effects of the ECB’s standard and non-standard policy measures on inflation and economic growth are moderate, although an easier stance in both policy tools helps calm down financial stress.     

Spillovers of the Conventional and Unconventional Monetary Policy from the US to South Africa

This paper assesses the effect of US monetary policy on South Africa during the period 1990–2018. We separately analyse and compare the effect of conventional monetary policy, before the Global Financial Crisis, and unconventional monetary policy, after the US monetary policy reached the zero-lower bound. Our impulse response function results indicate that monetary policy in South Africa responds mainly to local inflation, economic activity and financial conditions. While there is strong correlation between the global and South African financial cycle, the financial cycle is not transmitted to the real economy because of the sluggish response of industrial production and domestic credit, especially after the global financial crisis. We see this as an indication of the effects of structural issues to the real economy and constrained households’ balance sheet which has prevented the local economy to take advantage of low local interest rates and the global economic recovery after the crisis.     

产品负面报道的金融加速器效应实证分析——以三鹿毒奶粉事件溢出效应为例

使用12家乳制品类上市公司2005-2012年的季度动态面板数据,文章对"三鹿毒奶粉事件"这一产品负面报道的"小冲击,大波动"的金融加速器效应进行了检验,结果发现,在研究的样本范围内,存在金融加速器效应;但金融加速器效应的两个不对称特征与理论本身所揭示的相反,即受冲击时期的资产负债表状况对投资支出影响显著但敏感性弱于其他时期;大公司的资产负债表效应更显著且受冲击时这种效应也很显著。这可能源于产品负面报道的溢出效应不仅带来了传染,也带来了竞争,在危机时期,大公司更倾向于采用竞争策略,夺占问题企业的市场份额。     

PARTIAL DOLLARIZATION,EXCHANGE RATES,AND FIRM INVESTMENT IN PARAGUAY

Between 1989 and 1993 the government of Paraguay removed most restriction on financial transactions in domestic and foreign currency. The resulting financial deepening also involved partial dollarization. This investigation sought to determine whether partial dollarization led to negative balance sheet effects (in the form of reduced access to investment credit due to depreciation‐induced reduction in firms’ net worth as a result of currency mismatches on their balance sheets) and, therefore, to investment contractions, at the firm level, in the face of real currency depreciations. Support was found for that thesis. However, there was also evidence that banks expanded credit more rapidly in the face of currency depreciations. These apparent contradictory movements in credit and investment were shown to be a result of the absence of any clear causal link (in a Granger sense) between bank credit to the private sector and private investment in Paraguay.     

地区性差异对电力设备企业资产负债结构的影响分析

资产负债表是企业财务报告三大主要财务报表之一,它是反映企业某一特定日期的财务状况的报表,分别列示资产、负债和所有者权益项目。本文通过研究我国东部地区、中部地区和西部地区上市电力设备公司的资产负债表结构,分析了我国东中西部地区资产负债表之间的差异,并得出了风险与收益之间关系的结论     

Is the US quantitative easing more effective than China's? A second thought

We study the balance sheet of the People's Bank of China and the Federal Reserve Bank in a historical context and analyze whether the recent round of global expansionary monetary policy has been effective in achieving its desired economic effects. In particular, we focus on the roles played by excess reserves, monetary aggregates and financing to the real economy and highlight the tension between a liquid financial sector and an illiquid real sector. We show that, while both China and the US have followed reserve-driven growth strategies, the compositions and relative sizes of these quantities are quite different. In relative terms, excess reserves and lackluster corporate lending constitute a big problem for the US, whereas for China the pertinent question is how to further mobilize funds tied up in the real estate and stock market. We provide some thoughts on possible solutions to the current policy dilemma at the end.     

International Financial Adjustment for China： A Financial Valuation Approach

International financial adjustment is the process whereby valuation shifts from asset price and currency changes result in relatively durable net wealth transfers across countries' international balance sheets. This paper applies a financial valuation approach to estimate the direction and the broad extent of recent international financial adjustments on China's international balance sheet. We estimate China's international balance sheet losses resulting from the valuation shifts over the period 2005–2010 and reveal that international currency shifts over the past decade have also generated a range of non‐balance sheet financial and monetary adjustment pressures for China. This paper also evaluates how China's evolving international financial policy arrangements could better mitigate China's exposure to international financial adjustments. These arrangements include a more effective currency mechanism and the mechanisms to internationalize the RMB to buffer international financial valuation shocks.     

BANKING SECTOR CONTROLS AND FINANCIAL DEEPENING: A STRUCTURAL ERROR CORRECTION MODEL FOR TUNISIA

The aim of this paper is to investigate empirically the effects of several types of banking sector controls on financial deepening in Tunisia. The hypotheses addressed in this study are discussed within the general framework of the McKinnon/Shaw approach and the monopoly bank model. A structural error correction model in Ericsson's (1995) sense has been specified and used to estimate the effects of financial repression in Tunisia over the period 1961–2000. The main empirical finding suggests that, in the long and short terms, financial repression has had significant and negative effects on financial development, independently of its well‐known influence via the level of the real interest rate. This finding shows a contrast with the prevalence of financial market imperfections, but it is consistent with traditional literature on financial liberalization. In addition, this paper shows that financial deepening and per capita income are jointly determined since they both appear not to be weakly exogenous with each other.     

全球经济复苏之路:艰难前行?

从2009年经济复苏以来,以美国为主的发达国家公共部门负债水平快速攀升;金融行业再注资,修复资产负债表;居民降低债务水平。在政府、金融、居民和企业四大资产负债表中,只有企业的资产负债表维持相对稳健,为经济持续复苏奠定了一定基础。基于分析四大资产负债表及政策取向,文章认为,全球通货膨胀上升、资金和其他成本上升、经济增速减缓但波动加大是必然结果,除非发达国家科技进步和结构改革、新兴国家结构转型及全球治理方面尽快取得重大进展。全球经济需要准备在复苏之路上艰难前行。     

Is Real Earnings Smoothing Harmful? Evidence from Firm‐Specific Stock Price Crash Risk

This study examines whether and when real earnings smoothing influences firm‐specific stock price crash risk. Using a sample of U.S. public firms for the years 1993 through 2014, we find real earnings smoothing to be positively associated with firm‐specific stock price crash risk. This finding is consistent with the view that real earnings smoothing helps managers withhold bad news, keep poor‐performing projects, conceal resource diversion, and engage in ineffective risk management, which increases crash risk. Further, we find a stronger relation between crash risk and real earnings smoothing when firm uncertainty is higher, product market competition is lower, and balance sheet constraint is higher. Overall, our study suggests that real earnings smoothing destroys shareholder value in that it increases stock price crash risk.     

Eskom,its finances and the national electrification programme

Eskom, the national electricity utility, is one of the key institutions involved in delivering the goals of the Reconstruction and Development Programme. From 1991 to 1994, Eskom electrified about 685 000 households, and it plans to make a total of 1,75 million new connections between 1994 and 1999. Notwithstanding real electricity price decreases of 24 per cent from 1987 to 1994 and the operating losses it has encountered to date on the electrification programme, Eskom has consolidated and strengthened its income statement and balance sheet significantly in recent years. The present analysis suggests that its capital expenditure on power stations is fundamental to the utility's financial health. In real terms investment in 1994 was considerably lower than at the peak of 1985, and since supply capacity exceeds current demand electrification can readily proceed. Eskom enjoys a sound financial position and, with rationalisation and restructuring of the electricity supply industry, the utility might play an even more significant role in the electrification programme. The trend, however, appears to be in the opposite direction.     

The Role of Current Account Balance in Forecasting the US Equity Premium: Evidence From a Quantile Predictive Regression Approach

The purpose of this paper is to investigate whether the current account balance can help in forecasting the quarterly S&P500-based equity premium out-of-sample. We consider an out-of-sample period of 1970:Q3 to 2014:Q4, with a corresponding in-sample period of 1947:Q2 to 1970:Q2. We employ a quantile predictive regression model. The quantile-based approach is more informative relative to any linear model, as it investigates the ability of the current account to forecast the entire conditional distribution of the equity premium, rather than being restricted to just the conditional-mean. In addition, we employ a recursive estimation of both the conditional-mean and quantile predictive regression models over the out-of-sample period which allows for time-varying parameters in the forecast evaluation part of the sample for both of these models. Our results indicate that unlike as suggested by the linear (mean-based) predictive regression model, the quantile regression model shows that the (changes in the) real current account balance contains significant out-of-sample information when the stock market is performing poorly (below the quantile value of 0.3), but not when the market is in normal to bullish modes (quantile value above 0.3). This result seems to be intuitive in the sense that, when the markets are performing average to well, that is performing around the median and above of the conditional distribution of the equity premium, the excess return is inherently a random-walk and hence, no information, from a predictor (changes in the real current account balance) is able to predict the equity premium.     

基于实物期权的表外项目计量初探

表外项目由于本身的不确定性,未能形成会计计量意义上的自然形态,相应在财务信息中也就得不到准确披露,以致成为企业财务反映的真空.实物期权是金融期权理论对实物(非金融)资产期权的延伸.实物期权理论的出现为表外项目计量提供了有力工具.文章通过实物期权理论对通常表外项目计量的思路进行了说明.     

Real interest rates and the cost of capital

The real interest rate and the equity risk premium are criticaleconomic parameters that influence a wide range of economicdecisions. This paper considers the problems involved in estimatingexpected real interest rates and the equity risk premium, andhence the overall cost of capital. Using UK data, it suggestsreasons why estimates based on historical returns may be misleading,and discusses alternative approaches to estimating the costof capital.     

Rational bubbles and non-risk neutral investors in Japan

This paper presents a sufficient condition for not observing rational bubbles in real stock prices when investors are not risk neutral and both the real interest rate and the risk premium are time varying. If the risk premium and the real interest rate are stationary, the stationarity of the first differences of real stock prices is a sufficient condition for the absence of rational bubbles. Testing this condition with data on Japanese stock prices, we find that the hypothesis that rational bubbles existed is rejected.     

Earnings Announcement Disclosures and Changes in Analysts' Information

This study examines how financial disclosures with earnings announcements affect sell‐side analysts' information about future earnings, focusing on disclosures of financial statements and management earnings forecasts. We find that disclosures of balance sheets and segment data are associated with an increase in the degree to which analysts' forecasts of upcoming quarterly earnings are based on private information. Further analyses show that balance sheet disclosures are associated with an increase in the precision of both analysts' common and private information, segment disclosures are associated with an increase in analysts' private information, and management earnings forecast disclosures are associated with an increase in analysts' common information. These results are consistent with analysts processing balance sheet and segment disclosures into new private information regarding near‐term earnings. Additional analysis of conference calls shows that balance sheet, segment, and management earnings forecast disclosures are all associated with more discussion related to these items in the questions‐and‐answers section of conference calls, consistent with analysts playing an information interpretation role with respect to these disclosures.     

中小企业融资与中小银行发展——由中国现实问题引发的理论与实证分析

长久以来困扰我国经济发展的一个突出问题是中小企业融资难、融资贵.本文首先梳理了中小企业融资的理论基础,即基于"软信息"的关系型贷款.在理论分析之后,我们继之以中小企业贷款实证分析的综述,将理论与实证进行了交叉印证.接下来,我们使用中国商业银行资产负债表微观数据,分析了中国中小银行服务中小企业的成功与不足之处.研究发现众...     

Central Bank Balance Sheet Policies and Inflation Expectations

We analyse the empirical effects of credit easing and quantitative easing on inflation expectations and exchange rates. Both monetary policy strategies are summarised in measures for composition and size of the central bank balance sheet and are included in a VAR model. The results show that changes in balance sheet size had positive, albeit weak effects on inflation expectations in Japan, while the effects were negligible in the euro area. By contrast, an increasing balance sheet size is associated with reduced short-term inflation expectations in the US and UK, pointing at negative signalling effects. Shocks to balance sheet size or composition have no substantial effects on long-term inflation expectations in the euro area, US and UK. An expanding balance sheet size is associated with a depreciation of the euro, pound sterling and Japanese yen.