A strategic analysis of the war against transnational terrorism

We study a two stage game in which a transnational terrorist organization interacts with an arbitrary number of countries that may differ in their political or economic power, their military effectiveness, the benefit from cooperating against terrorism and the value they assign to damage. Only a subset of countries that emerges endogenously takes proactive measures to fight the terrorist, while all countries incur defensive expenditures to protect their soil. We characterize analytically the pure strategy subgame perfect equilibrium of the game and show how the equilibrium strategies depend on the key model parameters. We provide an algorithm to find the endogenous set of cooperating countries based on their benefit from cooperation and their political/economic power.     

战争与生态经济建设

本文从战争与生态经济相互关系的角度,论述了三个问题:21世纪是生态经济建设时代,战争是生态经济建设的致命问题,9·11恐怖战争、反恐怖战争是对生态经济建设的严重破坏。     

Linkages between inflation,economic growth and terrorism in Pakistan

This paper investigates the linkages between inflation, economic growth and terrorism using annual frequency data over the period of 1971–2010, the maximum time period for which consistent data is available for Pakistan. The ARDL bounds testing approach to cointegration has been applied while robustness of long run relationship is established by using rolling window approach. The empirical evidence confirms the cointegration between inflation, economic growth and terrorism in Pakistan. An increase in inflation raises terrorist attacks while economic growth is also a major contributor to terrorism. Moreover, bidirectional causality is found between inflation and terrorism as investigated by the VECM Granger-causality approach while variance decomposition approach also supports the findings by the VECM Granger causality analysis. Our results therefore points to benefits of pursuing sustainability of low inflation in reducing terrorism. However, it also implies some difficulties for policy-makers in Pakistan in their pursuit for economic growth as latter would result in an increase in terrorism activities crowding out some of the benefits of economic growth.     

Pluralism and heterodoxy in economic methodology

Economists work within models that are simplified depictions of reality. An argument for a pluralistic understanding of economics is that different approaches lend insight by looking at different phenomena from different viewpoints. While all economists can benefit from taking a pluralistic approach to understanding economics, Austrian school economists must be more pluralistic in their understanding and presentation of ideas than mainstream economists if they want their ideas to have an impact on mainstream economics. Despite the argument for a pluralistic understanding of economics, in research, as in other activities, specialization increases productivity. While Austrian school economists can benefit from taking a pluralistic approach to understanding economics, they are likely to be most productive in their research by specializing in the development of Austrian school methods and ideas.     

Applying conjoint analysis in economic evaluations: an application to menorrhagia

The increased demand for health care, coupled with limited resources, means that decisions have to be made concerning the allocation of scarce health care resources. This paper considers how conjoint analysis (CA) can be used to aid this decision making process. It is shown how the technique can be used to estimate marginal rates of substitution between attributes, willingness to pay (WTP) if cost is included as an attribute and overall utility scores for different ways of providing a service. The technique is applied to consider women's preferences for two surgical procedures in the treatment of menorrhagia: hysterectomy and conservative surgery. The results suggest conservative surgery is preferred to hysterectomy, as indicated by higher utility scores for the former and a marginal WTP of 7593 to have conservative surgery rather than hysterectomy. The internal validity of CA was also shown. It is concluded that CA is a potentially useful instrument for policy makers. However, numerous methodological issues need addressing before the technique becomes an established instrument within economic evaluations.     

'Let your science be human': Hume's economic methodology

This essay examines David Hume's economic methodology. The authorcharacterises Hume's understanding of human actions as interactionism.Its key point is that interactions generate the disinterestedview of ‘the spectator’ in the human mind. Humeapplies this idea of the disinterested spectator to the positionof social scientists in understanding social phenomena. ThusHume's approach to social science can be regarded as interpretive.The author also points out the difference between Hume's methodin social science and historical study. Considering this difference,the author argues that we should refer to Hume's social theoryrather than historical works in order to understand his economicmethodology.     

Adolphe Quetelet,the average man and the development of economic methodology *

Abstract

Quetelet's contribution to statistics has received adequate attention in Stigler (1986 Stigler, S. M. 1986. The History of Statistics. The Measurement of Uncertainty before 1900, Cambridge & London, MA: Belknap Press of Harvard University Press.  [Google Scholar], 1999 Stigler, S. M. 1999. Statistics on the Table. The History of Statistical Concepts and Methods, Cambridge & London, MA: Harvard University Press.  [Google Scholar]) and Porter's (1986) seminal works on the history of that scientific discipline. 24 24 See also Westergaard (1932 Westergaard, H. 1932. Contributions to the History of Statistics, London: King & Son.  [Google Scholar]: 167–70), Klein (1997 Klein, J. 1997. Statistical Visions in Time. A History of Time Series Analysis 1662–1938, Cambridge: Cambridge University Press.  [Google Scholar]: 122–31). Our contribution investigates Quetelet's influence on economic methodology. Other scholars have already investigated his influence on econometrics and empirical economics (Morgan 1990 Morgan, M. S. 1995. The History of Econometric Ideas, Cambridge: Cambridge University Press. [1990] [Google Scholar], Stigler 1999 Stigler, S. M. 1999. Statistics on the Table. The History of Statistical Concepts and Methods, Cambridge & London, MA: Harvard University Press.  [Google Scholar]), but we argue that his influence on theoretical economics should be considered significant as well. We devote attention to Quetelet's concept of the ‘average man’. For this purpose we briefly summarize Quetelet's methodology and examine the evolution of his ideas as expressed in his published works. We then investigate his influence on Jevons's ‘calculus of pleasures and pains’ and on the statistical investigations of the German historical school. We argue that the history of statistics, and especially Quetelet's contribution, should not be neglected by historians of economic thought as it provides important insights into the development of economic methodology.     

Kriging methodology for regional economic analysis: Estimating the housing price in Albacete

Because of the socioeconomic importance of the housing subsector in the local, regional, and national economy and its implications for housing policy, this paper attempts to analyze the spatial behavior of the free housing price in the city of Albacete. To achieve this aim, the authors have used the models and estimators imported from geology called kriging. To do this, it is necessary to know the spatial dependence structure of the process, which is shown in the variogram.     

Civil war and economic growth: the case for a closer look at forms of mobilization

This paper explores the idea that the lack of robust evidence on the growth impact of civil war could partially be a consequence of considering civil war as a unified conceptual category, regardless of the ordinate of group identity invoked in mobilizing for war. To do so, we distinguish explicitly between episodes of internal conflict where contestants mobilized along the lines of ethnicity and ones where mobilization occurred along other markers of group identity. Using alternative definitions of civil war and System GMM estimation to address the endogeneity of conflict and per capita income, we obtain a negative contemporaneous impact of non-ethnic civil war on economic growth over the period 1975–2005. By contrast, the impact of ethnic war is statistically insignificant.     

从“倒萨”战及其影响看中国经贸的安全与发展

自去年2月，美国总统布什在其国情咨文中提出了所谓的“邪恶轴心”国家以来，美国和世界民众的目光就从阿富汗被引到对伊拉克战争的关注中来了。经过十个月来的理论修补和备战运作，以美国为首的个别国家已经基本上完成了对伊战争的战略和战术的部署。去年11月8日，联合国安理会一致通过了有关伊拉克问题的1441号新决议，表明美国已基本上达到了建立“倒萨”国际联盟避免采取单边行动武力打击伊拉克的目的；11月在布拉格召开的北约高峰会中，美国进一步抹平了盟国之间的分歧和不同意见，落实了各项分工和任务，包括建立一支2.1万人的快速反…     

Over the ROC methodology: Productivity,economic size and firms’ export thresholds

We identify the minimum combinations of productivity and “economic size” that Italian manufacturing firms need to achieve in order to access international markets. These “export thresholds” are estimated by applying, for the first time in economics, the ROC (receiver operating characteristics) methodology. In this way, we detect a model‐based (rather than a subjectively determined) cut‐off that allows to identify exporters and nonexporters and provides a measure of each firm’s distance from the export threshold. This methodology also paves the way to investigate other determinants of thresholds, thus helping to design more effective policy interventions to reduce barriers to trade.     

From Malthusian war to Solovian peace

We present a two-country version of Hansen and Prescott's two-sector long-run growth model, introducing war by letting the countries take land from each other, at the cost of destroying capital and killing people. Because land is an input only in the Malthus sector the transition to a Solow economy brings a decline in warfare, broadly consistent with an observed 19th-century decrease in Great Power wars. We also find, inter alia, that if governments are Malthus-biased (care less about Solow output), the transition can lead temporarily to more war.     

Islamist terrorism and the status of women

We investigate the effect of Islamist terrorist activity on women's legal position in society, using data for 171 countries between 1970 and 2016. To identify causal effects, we exploit the prevalence of Islamist terrorism in neighboring countries as an exogenous source of variation, arguing that regional terrorism affects local terrorism through contagion effects. We show that increased activity by Islamist terrorist groups is linked to lower legal status of women. By contrast, we find that neither Islam per se nor other types of terrorism have comparable effects. This reinforces the notion that Islamist terrorism is singularly interested and effective in weakening women's rights. Our results are consistent with a rational-economic model of terrorism, where Islamist terrorists purposefully use violence to maximize political utility, while governments make concessions that constrain the role of women because the costs of compliance are lower than the harm from continued Islamist terrorism.     

Rhetoric vs realism in economic methodology: a critical assessment of recent contributions

This paper reviews the relatively new debate on rhetoric andrealism in economic methodology, concentrating on its main exponents:Deirdre McCloskey on the side of rhetoric, Tony Lawson as theadvocate of critical realism, and Uskali Mäki, arguingfor a combination of rhetoric and realism. The review highlightsa blind spot in the debate, namely the opportunity to rethinkcritically the project of epistemology.