The Development and Empirical Testing of Extended Input-Output Price Models

The focus in this paper is on the input-output price model as initially developed by Leontief nearly 60 years ago. A number of methodological refinements are proposed, including the formulation, for the first time, of an extended price model, with a disaggregated household sector. This model is presented in both static and dynamic versions. The effects of these refinements are investigated empirically by reference to an example of policy analysis. This relates to a hypothetical proposal to remove energy subsidies at the national level in Iran. The paper reports on the different results produced by each form of price model and also provides evidence on the sensitivity of individual parameter values. The paper concludes by considering the feasibility of constructing more comprehensive versions of the price model and identifying those elements of the model for which data are likely to be more difficult to obtain at national and regional levels.     

资产重组、股价波动与内幕交易——来自中国A股市场重大资产重组的证据

运用事件分析法构建了基于窗口期的内幕交易研究模型,以中国A股市场2008-2012年度重大资产重组事件为样本,研究了资产重组、股价波动和内幕交易的关系。研究发现,我国资本市场重大资产重组中显著存在内幕交易行为,加强关联交易和非国有控股上市公司资产重组监管有助于遏制内幕信息散布,2008年加强重大资产重组信息管理的政策取得了明显效果。     

On the Competitive Land Market: Evidence from Hong Kong

This paper examines both theory and empirical evidence on the relationship between market concentration and profitability in Hong Kong's land market. Such a relationship has been the subject of substantial debate among academics and practitioners. The study highlights several distinctive characteristics of property development in Hong Kong, and particularly various competitive strategies. In Hong Kong, land can be acquired through public auction, redevelopment and lease modifications. Thus, those developers without a sufficient land bank tend to be very aggressive in land auction. However, in the land auction market, competition is keen and the land acquired expensive. This study found that the leading property developers do not take the largest share in the land auction market. We argue that the developers tend to locate themselves in a suitable market position or strategic domain, within which they sustain competitiveness by increasing their market share. We also found that the property developers undertaking a relatively high proportion of large-scale projects tend to have a higher proportion of profits from such projects.     

Segmented Labour Markets: Theory and Evidence

This paper examines the possibility of accepting the labour market segmentation approach as a valid alternative to the classical and neo-classical analysis of labour markets. It consists of three main parts. The first part contains a historical analysis of both the distant and recent origins of the labour market segmentation hypothesis. Part two outlines the central ideas of both segmentationalists and radical theorists who attempted to explain the fragmented nature of labour markets and the importance of institutional and social influences upon pay, employment and mobility of individual workers between different labour market sectors. The third part examines the case for labour market segmentation using four alternative techniques and discusses the issue of mobility among different labour market segments. It is thereby concluded that the lack of agreement among the segmented labour market theorists on both theoretical and methodological issues has prevented them from developing a consistent and convincing argument based on verifiable empirical evidence to validate their thesis.     

RESIDENTIAL MOBILITY AND HOUSING TAX REFORMS: Some Empirical Evidence*

The efficiency and equity implications of mortgage interest deductibility have been studied by a number of authors using models of housing demand that do not account for barriers to residential mobility. This paper examines how one's assessment of that proposed tax reform may differ based on models that do allow for such barriers, using data from Toronto, Canada. We find that earlier works tend to overstate the deadweight loss attributable to the introduction of mortgage interest deductibility, particularly in the short run.     

Efficiency in Banking: Empirical Evidence from the Czech Republic

The paper examines the cost efficiency of the Czech-banking system in the 1990s by applying the distribution free approach model. Reported results indicate that foreign banks were on average more efficient than the other banks, although their efficiency was comparable with the ‘good’ small banks’ efficiency in early years of their operation. Based on the estimated results it is argued that early privatisation of state-owned commercial banks and more liberal policy towards foreign banks in the early stage of transition would have enhanced the efficiency in the banking system. Anita Taci - The views and opinions are those of the author and not necessarily those of the EBRD.     

Internal Control and Stock Price Crash Risk: Evidence from China

This paper examines the role played by internal control and its five components (i.e. control environment, risk assessment, control activities, information and communication, and monitoring) in alleviating future stock price crash risk. Using a unique dataset from China, we find evidence that internal control is negatively associated with future stock price crash risk. Specifically, control environment, information and communication, and monitoring are significantly and negatively associated with future stock price crash risk. Moreover, the negative association between internal control and crash risk is significantly more pronounced in firms with weak internal and external governance (i.e. audited by non-Big 4 auditors, located in provinces with low market development, and less conservative in accounting) and with poor ability to mitigate impacts of extreme negative events (i.e. non-state-owned enterprises). Our study highlights the delicate role of internal control as a mechanism in preventing crash of stock price.     

Finance and Growth: Evidence from Some Arab Countries

Abstract

Some analysts contend that the ‘size effect’ -the higher returns associated with small-capitalization companies over those with large-capitalization, are a myth. Most empirical studies to date relate to U.S. stock exchanges. Since the Tel-Aviv Stock Exchange is considered an ‘emerging market,’ it is valuable to explore this phenomenon in this market.

This empirical study considers the performance of individual stocks and two alternative portfolios. The results show that the ‘size effect’ does not exist on the TASE, and that the large-capitalization stocks and portfolios generated higher returns versus their small-capitalization counterparts. Thus, the ‘size effect’ may only be a myth.     

股票价格低于每股净资产的影响因素分析——来自中国A股上市公司的经验证据

破净指股票价格跌破每股净资产,是股票价格与每股净资产关系的一种极端表现。本文以1 059家A股上市公司为样本,采用修正的Ohlson模型,分组对股价破净的影响因素进行研究。结果发现:对于业绩为正的非ST企业而言,公司规模大、上市时间早、机构投资者持股比例低的国有企业容易破净;ST企业的股票价格虽下跌,但其重组捷径和壳资源改变了投资者的预期,使ST企业不破净或较少破净。     

我国通货膨胀成因解释的理论模型选择与实证研究

本文从若干通货膨胀理论模型出发,研究了1985年以来中国通货膨胀的成因.论文从不同的角度,采用不同的计量经济方法,利用1985～2007年中国宏观经济统计数据,对通货膨胀若干理论模型进行实证与比较分析,结果发现能较好地解释中国通货膨胀成因的模型是政策失误假设理论模型.通过对不同的计量经济方法进行比较,我们认为间接统计推断方法更具一般性.     

中国机电产品出口增长波动研究——基于六大出口市场的研究

随着传统竞争优势弱化以及国际产业的调整,中国机电行业的确面临较大的压力,将进入转弯期。为了积极扩大中国机电产品对主要市场机电产品的出口,有必要对机电产品出口的六大主要市场的依赖性进行分析,并解释中国机电产品对六大市场出口增长的路径实现以及影响因素。研究结果表明,所选影响因素对集约边际和扩展边际的影响有所不同,因此制定机电产品出口政策对不同出口市场应有所区别。     

价格波动性与股票预期回报——基于中国市场的初步证据

基于国际资本市场数据的研究发现,股票价格的波动率和股票未来的回报率负相关,而且风险差异不能解释这个现象,文章使用中国股票市场的数据发现了相同的结论。在1998年1月到2003年12月期间内,基于过去一个月内股价波动率的对冲组合在未来六个月内能够取得0.32%的月风险调整超额回报率。M iller(1977)认为股价波动性代表了投资者对股票价值评估的不确定性和异质性,因为卖空限制的存在,波动性高的股票的价格更多地反映了乐观投资者的看法,因而出现高估价值的错误定价。文章分析认为M iller的错误定价理论能够解释股价波动率与未来回报率之间的负相关关系。     

Market Orientation and Performance: Objective and Subjective Empirical Evidence from UK Companies

The link between market orientation and performance has been claimed largely on the basis of the analysis of subjective measures of performance. Consequently, the aim of this study is to examine the links between market orientation and objectively measured financial performance. The paper begins with a brief examination of the definition and components of market orientation. Thereafter, extant research into the consequences of developing market orientation is reviewed critically, leading to the development of a number of research hypotheses. After detailing the research design and methodology adopted in this study, the findings of a survey of UK industry are presented. Briefly, the results indicate that when subjective measures of performance are adopted, market orientation is associated with company performance in certain environmental conditions. However, when objective measures of performance are adopted, we see a narrower range of environmental conditions where market orientation is positively associated with performance. The paper concludes with a series of implications for both theorists and practitioners.     

主要股票市场指数与我国股票市场指数间的协整分析

本文应用协整分析和误差修正模型(ECM),对沪、深股市指数和主要股票市场(美国、英国、香港和日本)之间的关系进行了实证分析。通过建立误差修正模型(ECM),发现指数之间收益率序列具有相异的短期波动,而对沪、深股市指数和主要股票市场指数进行协整分析,我们发现国内市场与国际市场不存在协整关系,即没有长期共同趋势,得出我国股票市场与国际市场相分离的结论。     

中国的房价与地价:理论、实证和政策分析

本文采用四象限模型、格兰杰因果检验和误差修正模型等分析方法,从理论、实证和政策等方面对中国房价与地价关系以及市场结构和政府供地方式的转变对二者关系的影响进行系统、深入地研究,并对进一步规范房地产市场秩序,理顺地价和房价形成机制等提出政策建议。研究结果表明,短期内房价决定地价,长期内二者相互影响。与协议出让方式相比,土地招拍挂出让通过促进土地市场的买方竞争、降低房地产增量市场的垄断性,在显化土地价格的同时,降低了地价对房价的影响程度。     

公司制衡机制与财务舞弊:来自我国证券市场的经验证据

本文采用Logistic模型对我国2002~2004年A股财务舞弊公司的内部制衡、独立审计与政府监管制衡机制进行了研究。结果发现:公司股东大会出席率与财务舞弊负相关,董事会规模与财务舞弊负相关;独立董事比例、监事会规模、董事长与总经理两职合一对财务舞弊并无显著影响;资产审计费用率与财务舞弊正相关;上年度财务报告审计意见差、上年度股票被特别处理的公司财务舞弊可能性较大。     

农地承包经营权市场流转与行政性调整:理论与实证分析--基于农户层面和江西省实证研究

目前，学术界对我国农地市场流转率偏低的原因，以及农地行政性调整是否阻碍了市场流转尚未达成一致观点。本文提出假说认为，农地供求状况主要取决于农户对非农收益期望值的预期；市场发育、交易量的大小主要取决于农户之间非农收益期望值的预期差异；在开放与二元经济条件下，市场流转对行政性调整具有某种替代性。并通过构建农地供求理论决策模型，运用统计和经验数据对上述假说进行了验证。