THE ANALYTICS OF TAX EFFECTS IN DISCOUNT BOND VALUATION

This paper discusses the analytics of tax effects in discount bond valuation. The author illustrates that bond value is a simple linear function of the tax rate on interest income, whereas bond value is concave to the capital gains tax rate. The author also analyzes how changes in tax rates interact with yield changes to affect bond valuation and how tax rates interact with maturity to determine the depth of bond discount.     

¿Influyen las Normas Internacionales de Información Financiera en el riesgo de las acciones?

The present research has two objectives. First, we study the determinants of stock risk. Second, we analyze whether International Financial Reporting Standard (IFRS) implemented in the Spanish market in 2005 has affected these determinants. It is quite important for both entrepreneurs and management professionals to understand the accounting information and macroeconomic factors that explain stock risk, since it suggests which factors can be used to estimate this risk, and hence, to analyze the evolution of cost of capital or discount rate. The discount rate plays an important role in wide range of financial decisions; whose value depends on the risk among other factors. Therefore, it is significant to obtain an objective estimation of discount rate, which is difficult to handle specifically in the context of small and medium sized enterprises (SMEs). Effective management involves the ability to forecast future changes, capture positive effects, and minimize negative ones. Once we find out the variables that can be utilized to explain the risk, we can observe and analyze their evolution to anticipate future changes in the discount rate.     

Discount rate changes and the foreign exchange market

Changes in the discount rate can have associated announcement effects on the foreign exchange value of the dollar only if these changes are not anticipated by the market. This paper provides evidence to support this contention. Specifically, discount rate changes made for reasons other than technical adjustments have not been anticipated fully and, consequently, their announcements have had a significant impact on the dollar's exchange rate. Furthermore, results are obtained that support the hypothesis that unanticipated discount rate changes alter inflationary expectations.     

Currency crisis and the forward discount bias: Evidence from emerging economies under breaks

This paper investigates the effects of two financial crises (the 1997 Asian currency crisis and the 2000 Turkish financial crisis) on the forward discount bias in 14 emerging-market economies using a robust two-stage procedure. This unique sample of less researched currencies displays: (i) high persistence in forward discount equations; and (ii) varying variance ratios between changes in exchange rates and the forward premium. The findings provide new insights into the forward discount puzzle: financial crises exert considerable power on the forward discount bias and uphold the forward rate unbiasedness hypothesis (FRUH) by reverting the negative sign into positive.     

Explaining the variance of price-dividend ratios

I report a bound on the variance of the-dividend ratios anda decomposition of their variance into terms that reflect changesin dividend growth and discount rates. The specification isnot restrictive. The test statistics do not require constructionof ex post present values; instead, they are restrictions onmeans, variances and covariances of price-dividend ratios, dividendgrowth, and discount rates. I consider implications for themean price-dividend ratio, and I evaluate whether a low meandiscount rate can rationalize the mean and variance of price-dividendratios. The results do not indicate any striking rejectionsof present value models. However, the bulk of the variance ofprice-dividend ratios must be accounted for by changing forecastsof discount rates, and discount rates must possess some unusualcharacteristics.     

The consequences of discount rate selection for defined benefit liabilities

This paper provides evidence on the use of discount rates for calculating defined benefit liabilities (DBL), and their impact on value relevance and audit fees for Australian listed companies between 2011 and 2016. We document that the average discount rate is 3.96% but the yearly range across companies is 4.03% (2.76% excluding multinationals with multiple plans), despite the fact that AASB 119 provides guidance to use the yield of high quality corporate bonds or, if there is not a deep market, government bonds. We then find that the DBL or unfunded component (DBL less the fair value of the plan’s assets) is value relevant, but is less so when a higher discount rate is used. Furthermore, we document that audit fees are higher when the DBL is larger, or the discount rate is higher, consistent with greater audit effort and risk. Overall, this paper contributes to the accounting literature by documenting both the discretion available in discount rate selection and its consequences.     

SOME FORMAL CONNECTIONS BETWEEN ECONOMIC VALUES AND YIELDS AND ACCOUNTING NUMBERS

This paper reports a number of results concerning the relationship between accounting numbers and economic values and yields. Some of the results have appeared previously in the literature and some are new. They have been collected together in a common analytical framework in order to demonstrate their formal, mathematical character. It is shown that present value can be obtained by discounting almost any profit numbers; that accounting rates of return define a discount function directly analagous to the term structure and the internal rate of return; and that the internal rate of return can be expressed as a linear weighted sum of accounting rates of return.     

Pension plan solvency and extreme market movements: a regime switching approach

We develop and test a new approach to assess defined benefit (DB) pension plan solvency risk in the presence of extreme market movements. Our method captures both the ‘fat-tailed’ nature of asset returns and their correlation with discount rate changes. We show that the standard assumption of constant discount rates leads to dramatic underestimation of future projections of pension plan solvency risk. Failing to incorporate leptokurtosis into asset returns also leads to downward biased estimates of risk, but this is less pronounced than the time-varying discount rate effect. Further modifying the model to capture the correlation between asset returns and the discount rate provides additional improvements in the projection of future pension plan solvency. This reduces the perceived future risk of underfunding because of the negative correlation between interest rate changes and asset returns. These results have important implications for those with responsibility for balancing risk against expected return when seeking to improve the current poor funding positions of DB pension schemes.     

Risk-adjusted discount rates and capital budgeting under uncertainty

This paper is concerned with the valuation of multiperiod cash flows in a world where prices are determined according to the Sharpe-Lintner-Black model of capital market equilibrium. We find that the current market value of any future net cash flow is the current expected value of the flow discounted at risk-adjusted discount rates for each of the periods until the flow is realized. The discount rates are known and non-stochastic, but the rates for the different periods preceding the realization of a cash flow need not to be the same, and the rates relevant for a given period can differ across cash flows. The risk adjustments in the discount rates arise because of uncertainties about reassessments through time of the expected value of a flow and the relationships between these reassessments and the corresponding reassessments of the expected cash flows of all firms.     

The stochastic properties of term structure movements

The aim of this paper is to identify a stationary statistical model for Treasury bill discount changes. We find that the sample variance of discount changes are non-stationary over short differencing intervals but stabilize as the intervals increase to quarterly or semi-annual periods. This result has important implications for pricing options and for analyzing the predictive properties of forward rates. We show that the stochastic process structure leads to a downward revision in estimates of forward rate predictive power.     

The impact of duration on management's discount rate choice

Previous research finds that firms increase their assumed discount rates to minimize their reported pension benefit obligation. This paper demonstrates that firms whose pension plans have short durations lower their discount rates (rather than increase them), since a lower discount rate decreases their pension expense. These results are especially relevant in the present climate of low interest rates and more firms freezing their defined benefit pension plans, thereby shortening the duration of their obligations. Given its importance in shaping management motivation we believe that firms should be required to disclose the duration of their future obligations.     

Bundesbank intervention effects through interest rate policy

This paper investigates the effects of the changes in the Bundesbank's discount and Lombard interest rates on the volatility of European Union country exchange rates relative to the German mark during 1987–93. The first year of the sample period contains the last major realignment in the ERM before its ‘breakdown’ in 1993. Using a parsimonious EGARCH model, we find that the conditional volatility of these exchange rates increased in response to interest rate changes, regardless of the rate change direction. This finding is in direct conflict with Bundesbank's public statements that indicate that its interest rate policy was designed to calm its foreign exchange markets.     

Understanding Stock Price Volatility: The Role of Earnings

In an efficient capital market, asset prices vary when investors change their expectations about cash flows, discount rates, or both. Using dividends to measure cash flows, previous research shows that the aggregate dividend‐price ratio varies due to changes in expected discount rates (returns) rather than expected cash flows. In contrast, using accounting earnings instead of dividends as a measure of cash flows, this paper shows that as much as 70% of the variation in the dividend‐price ratio can be explained by changes in expected earnings. Moreover, the paper documents a significant negative correlation between expected returns and expected earnings, suggesting that variations in a common factor to both may generate significant price volatility. The results are consistent with the dividend‐policy irrelevance hypothesis.     

Discount rate changes,stock market returns,volatility, and trading volume: Evidence from intraday data and implications for market efficiency

We examine the effect of discount rate changes on stock market returns, volatility, and trading volume using intraday data. Equity returns generally respond negatively and significantly to the unexpected announcements; however, the effect of expected changes on equity returns is insignificant. Furthermore, our results indicate that equity prices respond to announcements within the trading period/hour after the information release. An indication of a return reversal is too small to cover the full transaction costs. Unexpected discount rate changes also contribute to higher market volatility although the volatility is short-lived. Similarly, unexpected changes in discount rates induce larger trading volume while expected changes do not. Abnormal trading volume occurs only in period t. Our results also support the notion that unexpected changes in the discount rates impact market returns irrespective of the Federal Reserve operating procedures.     

VALUING REAL OPTIONS: CAN RISK‐ADJUSTED DISCOUNTING BE MADE TO WORK?

This paper examines three alternative approaches to valuing real options: (1) the standard option pricing technique using "risk-neutral" probabilities; (2) the use of risk-adjusted discount rates; and (3) discounting certainty-equivalent values with a riskless discount rate. As suggested by the title, a question of particular interest is whether an approach based on risk-adjusted discount rates can be "made to work" for valuing options. The answer is yes. Indeed, the authors show that any of the three approaches will provide a correct valuation if properly employed.
Nevertheless, there are important differences in the information requirements associated with each of the three methods. Another important issue is the relative degree of difficulty in calculating the correct option value. When these two considerations are taken into account, the risk-neutral option pricing procedure generally proves to be the preferred method. It tends to be computationally more convenient—often much more convenient—and to require less information than either the risk-adjusted discounting or certainty-equivalent procedures.     

Firm-Theoretic Limitations on Proposition III

This paper builds on work by Thomadakis [1976] and Peyser [1981] who demonstrated that a disparity normally exists between the "capitalization" rate and the "cutoff" rate. Modigliani and Miller [1958] maintained that the two rates are equal in the absence of capital structure changes and corporate taxation. However, they neglected to analyze the effects of the firm's demand and production functions on the comparative risks embedded in average and marginal returns. This paper used a certainty-equivalence approach to show that the difference in these risks is the source of the disparity and that the firm's demand and production characteristics magnify or attenuate it. Although knowledge of the cutoff rate is necessary for determining the optimal scale of investment, it is not directly observable. However, the cutoff rate turns out to be imputable from an algebraic function of the capitalization rate and either the Lerner Index or Tobin's q ratio. Because common measures of the Lerner Index implicitly assume away the conditions that are necessary to produce disparate discount rates, the q ratio appears to be the preferred alternative for the purpose at hand.     

Detecting news in aggregate accounting earnings: implications for stock market valuation

How much news is there in aggregate accounting earnings? I provide evidence that earnings changes at the stock market level are correlated with new information about not only expected future cash flows but also discount rates. A comprehensive investigation of the link to discount rates reveals that aggregate earnings changes are tied to news about all components of the expected future stock market return, i.e., the real riskless rate, expected inflation, and the expected equity risk premium. Over the sample period studied, cash flow news and discount rate news in aggregate earnings changes covary positively and have offsetting impacts on stock market prices. As a result, stock market prices appear to be insensitive to aggregate earnings changes. The findings highlight the importance of separating cash flow news from discount rate news when evaluating the information content of accounting earnings at the stock market level. Overall, my study sheds new light on the informativeness and relevance of accounting earnings for valuation at the stock market level.     

The Impact of Taxes on Discount Bond Valuation and Risk

If the effective tax rates on ordinary income and capital gains are identical, the assumption of independence or dependence between ordinary income and capital gains tax rates is shown to have no impact on discount bond valuation or risk. However, even if the effective tax rates are identical, the shape and the sensitivity of the bond valuation and risk functions with respect to taxes are not identical under the alternative assumptions. A mathematical and numerical analysis of the sensitivity of changes in the discount bond valuation and risk functions with respect to income tax rates is provided. Comparisons between the sensitivities of changes in the discount bond valuation and risk functions and taxes under conditions of dependence or independence between ordinary income and capital gains tax rates are made.     

Banks refinancing with the central bank: Re-examination of its interest rate elasticities for Belgium 1960–1973

This paper reports evidence that bank refinancing with the central bank is highly interest elastic, particularly with respect to the discount rate. It shows that banks fully adjust actual to desired refinancing within three months and that the apparent negative association of refinancing with a need variable is a spurious one. Discount rate changes are found to be largely effective as a policy instrument.     

The Effect of Interest Rates on the Value of Corporate Assets and the Risk Premia of Corporate Debt

A growing number of papers have applied option pricing techniques to the valuation of risky debt. This paper deals directly with how a firm's relationship to interest rates affects its debt. A sequential binomial model is used to price the zero-coupon bonds of a firm whose value is related to interest rate changes.The results show that the strength of the relationship between firm value and interest rates (interest-rate risk) can have a significant impact on the value of a firm's debt. The model produces its most powerful results when the volatility of firm value is high and the term structure has a steep (negative or positive) slope; there is no impact when the term structure is flat. Our results indicate that empirical studies of yield spreads may have severe shortcomings if the relationship of firm value to interest rate changes is ignored.