通货膨胀目标制在中国的适用性分析

近几年,国内学术界建议政府采纳通货膨胀目标制的呼声越来越高。由通货膨胀目标制的内涵出发,客观地阐述通货膨胀目标制的优越性,根据中国当前的具体国情及其适用条件,通货膨胀目标制在中国暂时尚缺乏可行性。     

A Note on Inflation Targeting

The authors present a pedagogical graphical exposition to illustrate the stabilizing effect of price target zones. Based on a textbook AD-AS apparatus, they find that authorities' commitment to defend a price target zone will affect the public's inflation expectations and, in turn, reduce actual inflation. They also find that, when the economy experiences supply shocks, the announcement that the monetary authorities intend to defend a price target zone will reduce the variability of domestic prices but raise the variability of domestic output relative to a free-price regime. However, when the economy experiences demand shocks, a price target zone tends to lower the variability of both domestic prices and out-put relative to a free-price regime.     

Selecting Your Inflation Targeters: Background and Performance of Monetary Policy Committee Members

Abstract. This paper starts by describing the composition of monetary policy committees (MPCs) in inflation‐targeting and non‐targeting countries. The experience of MPC members on their inflation performance is then compared, opposing inflation targeters with non‐targeters. Our sample covers the major Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development countries, in the period 1999–2008. Our results first show that MPCs are different in inflation‐targeting (versus non‐targeting) countries. They also reveal that policy‐makers' backgrounds influence inflation, and that the influence of MPCs' experience is much greater in inflation‐targeting countries, while size effects are more important for committees that do not target inflation.     

通货膨胀目标制的模式及作用机制浅探

通货膨胀目标制是20世纪90年代兴起的一种新的货币政策框架,目前已经在不同地区、不同类型的国家中得到了广泛的应用,并取得良好的效果。通货膨胀这一经济现象是无法完全消灭的,而其失控会不可避免的对经济各方面造成不良的影响。通胀目标制不同于其他货币制度之处就在于它是在通货膨胀失控之前就采取有效措施来预防,而不是每次都等到损害已经造成后再补救。因此,对通货膨胀目标制的定义、模式、作用机制及政策效果进行分析就很有必要,它为中国的货币政策改革提供了一种选择。     

通货膨胀目标制实践经验的国际考察

作为一种新型的货币政策制度框架,标准型通货膨胀目标制在全球的中央银行中已经获得了一定的认同.然而迄今为止,我们还缺乏一个对目前大量的通货膨胀目标制实践经验进行简洁而全面的概括,借以对货币政策的实践和通货膨胀目标钉住者的前景展望提供相应指南.而这种指南之所以必要,是因为队伍不断庞大的发展中国家和新兴市场经济体正在考虑是否采纳通货膨胀目标制.借鉴标准型通货膨胀目标制国家在控制通货膨胀过程中所积累的经验,探讨通货膨胀目标制国家面临的主要问题、发展趋势、政策实践,其目的是为了从国家的角度来思考是否应该采纳通货膨胀目标制;而对于已经实施通货膨胀目标制的国家,则要考虑如何健全这一制度框架.     

我国应放弃汇率名义锚

尽管我国宣布将货币供应量作为货币政策调控目标,但是,货币供应量近年来却高速增长,造成我国物价水平不断攀升。本文通过对近年我国货币政策实际操作考察发现,我国货币政策名义锚并非货币供应量而是汇率,其他货币政策工具均受制于此。汇率名义锚使我国货币政策走入困境,央行面临着物价稳定和经济紧缩的重大取舍。历史经验告诉我们,在巨大贸易不平衡下,汇率名义锚具有不可持续性。参照国际成功经验,本文建议我国应逐步放弃汇率名义锚,渐进迈向物价名义锚,实现货币政策独立和经济良性发展。     

Economic Development,International Trade,and Income Distribution

This paper applies the inframarginal analysis, which is a combination of marginal and total cost-benefit analysis, to investigate the relationship between division of labor, the extent of the market, productivity and inequality of income distribution. The model with transaction costs and exogenous and endogenous comparative advantages shows that as trading efficiency is improved the general equilibrium discontinuously jumps from autarky to partial division of labor with a dual structure, then to the complete division of labor where dual structure disappears. In this process different groups of individuals with different trading efficiency become involved in a certain level of division of labor at different stages of development. As the leading group becomes involved in a higher level of division of labor leaving others behind, a dual structure emerges and inequality increases. As latecomers catch up dual structure disappears and inequality declines. When the leader goes to an even higher level of specialization, dual structure occurs and inequality increases again. Inequality decreases again as the latecomers catch up. Hence, the equilibrium degree of inequality fluctuates in this development process. The relationship between inequality and productivity is neither monotonically positive nor monotonically negative. It might not be an inverted U-curve. The key driving force of economic development and trade is improvement in trading efficiency. Received January 8, 2002; revised version May 2, 2002 Published online: December 5, 2002     

Can Bitcoin become money? The monetary rule problem

The growing literature on Bitcoin can be divided into two groups. One performs an economic analysis of Bitcoin focusing on its monetary characteristics. The other one takes a financial look at the price of Bitcoin. Interestingly, both of these groups have not given much more than passing comments to the problem of whether or not Bitcoin has the right monetary rule in order to become a well‐established currency. This paper argues that Bitcoin in particular, and cryptocurrencies in general, do not have a good monetary rule and that this shortcoming seriously limits its prospect of becoming widely used money.     

货币政策、外部冲击与通货膨胀

利用2001年1月—2013年6月的月度数据,构建DCC-MVGARCH模型分析用货币供应量表征的我国内部因素和用汇率和国际原油价格表征的外部因素对我国通货膨胀率的动态影响。研究结果表明:我国通货膨胀既源于内部调整,也受到外部冲击的影响;内部因素中的货币供应量增长率是影响我国通货膨胀水平的主要决定因素;相对而言,外部因素对通货膨胀水平的影响不大。     

中央银行独立性、责任性与通货膨胀目标制

近年来不少学者提出,我国货币政策应转向通货膨胀目标制。我国现行的政策实际上正是一种隐性的通货膨胀目标制,20世纪90年代以来所发生的几次通货膨胀偏倚很大程度上是由于央行的独立性不够。鉴于通货膨胀目标制并不能解决当前我国货币政策调控中的问题并可能带来更多的问题,今后货币政策改革应坚持由直接调控向间接调控、由数量型调控向价格型调控的转变思路,在提高央行独立性的同时,增强其责任性并提高货币政策的透明度。     

Inflation surprises and inflation expectations in the Euro area

In the second half of 2012, euro area inflation started declining and reached historical lows at the end of 2014. Market-based measures of inflation expectations also declined to unprecedented levels. During this disinflationary period, inflation releases have often surprised analysts on the downside. We provide evidence that inflation ‘surprises’ have significant effects on inflation expectations. The sensitivity of inflation expectations to the surprises, which has varied over time, disappeared after the introduction of the Asset Purchase Programme by the European Central Bank.     

通货膨胀对我国信贷渠道有效性的影响

学术界一般认为,由金融市场信息不对称所产生的逆向选择、道德风险和监控成本是信贷渠道存在的主要前提条件。在我国当前经济背景下,研究通货膨胀是否影响了我国货币政策信贷渠道的传导效率。结果表明,通货膨胀导致了我国货币政策信贷渠道效率的下降。     

Specific versus ad valorem Taxation and Externalities

Received December 15, 2000; revised version received September 10, 2001     

Patent Policy in an Endogenous Growth Model

We investigate how the patent policy affects economic growth and social welfare based on an endogenous growth model with R&D activities. We show that the patent length that maximizes the social welfare is finite. Moreover, by introducing compulsory licensing, we also show that the patent length that maximizes the social welfare is not infinite even if the royalty rate can be controlled. Received June 29, 2001; revised version received February 5, 2002 Published online: February 17, 2003 We wish to thank two anonymous referees for their constructive comments. We also thank Akira Yakita for his helpful comments.     

渐进性通货膨胀与我国货币政策失灵——以区域金融差异为视角

作为应对通货膨胀的主要宏观调控措施,货币政策历来都受到各国中央银行的重视.但是,从2006年开始的本轮通货膨胀中,中国政府屡次动用紧缩性货币政策的结果是消费物价指教的渐进攀升.本文从中国区域金融差异的角度分析了渐进性通货膨胀的原因,并在分析全国统一货币政策失灵机制的基础上为将来可能的区域性货币政策的实施提出了相关建议.     

通货膨胀影响因素的实证研究

从贷款利率、存款准备金率、原油期货和大豆期货的价格出发,运用向量误差修正模型,对2000～2011年我国通货膨胀的原因展开实证分析。分析结果显示,贷款利率、存款准备金率、原油期货和大豆期货的价格都与CPI之间存在长期均衡关系;通过脉冲响应函数和方差分解方法,得出贷款利率、存款准备金率、原油期货和大豆期货价格对CPI的动态影响关系。     

通货膨胀目标区与非线性泰勒法则

本文采用STR、TV-STR模型,利用1991年1月至2010年3月的月度数据分析了我国货币政策反应函数,与现有中国货币政策反应函数的文献相比主要有以下几个结论:第一,我国货币政策反应函数存在着结构变化,先是在1997年11月突变,然后存在一个渐变过程.第二,1997年11月前后相应存在着两个通货膨胀目标区,分别为[14.109,16.123]和[0.985,2.902],且后一通货膨胀目标区要比前一通货膨胀目标区合理.第三,随着时间推移,我国货币政策反应函数的产出缺口反应系数,逐渐由负转正,利率平滑系数则逐渐变小,这反应了随着我国利率市场化的推进,我国的货币政策操作开始越来越多的使用利率这一价格工具.     

通货膨胀冲击的财产再分配效应——基于中美两国的比较研究

本文利用微观调查数据研究了中美两国通胀冲击的财产再分配效应。本文的定量研究结果表明,通胀冲击将侵蚀中国家庭部门的财产,并进一步恶化家庭间的财产分布;而美国的情况却截然相反。从通胀再分配效应的视角出发,本文建议我国在制定货币政策时应当更加重视民生目标,逐步建立起多种形式的通胀补贴制度,以增强社会底层的通胀承受能力。     

Causes of Inflation in Europe, the United States and Japan: Some Lessons for Maintaining Price Stability in the EMU from a Structural VAR Approach

Price stability being among the primary goals of EMU monetary policy,it should be interesting to analyse thefactors that led to the disinflationarydevelopments of the last years. Using a structural VAR approach withlong-run identifying restrictions derived from an open-economy macromodel, various factors of inflation for Austria, Germany, Italy, the UnitedKingdom, the United States and Japan and the extent to which they havecontributed to inflation are analysed. These factors are energy price shocks, supply shocks, wage setting influences, demand and exchange rate disturbances and money supply surprises. The latter three are also used to calculate core inflation. Within a smaller model for aggregate EMU data, supply and demand influences are analysed. While supply and demand factors have generally contributed to the inflation decline, monetary policy, enhanced competition, low energy prices and moderate wage setting are featuring most prominent in the recent disinflation process.     

A common trends model of UK core inflation

In this paper the long-run trend in RPI inflation (core inflation) for the UK over the 1961–1997 period is estimated within the framework of a multivariate common trends model which extends the bivariate VAR approach of Quah and Vahey (1995). In this context core inflation is directly linked to money and wage growth and interpreted as the long-run forecast of inflation from a small-scale, cointegrated macroeconomic system. First version received: September 1999/Final version received: October 2001 RID="*" ID="*"  We thank two anonymous referees for many helpful comments and suggestions. Work on this paper was partially conducted when C. Morana was at Heriot-Watt University.