Food aid and household food security in a conflict situation: Empirical evidence from Northern Uganda

It is well-established that armed political conflict has a detrimental effect on food security and household welfare: conflict induces food insecurity by reducing own food production, access to food through the market, and various other resources to sustain healthy and productive lives. One way of mitigating these adverse effects is to provide food aid. In this study we evaluate the impact of a World Food Programme intervention on household food security and asset protection among conflict-affected households in Northern Uganda. We employ propensity score matching to estimate the average treatment effect on food expenditure, food consumption and preservation of assets using a sample of 1265 observations from a 2008 survey. Our results reveal that the operation’s system of targeting beneficiaries was effective and in accordance with programme objectives. Food aid considerably reduced food expenditure of households, suggesting that recipients were net buyers of food, and that the food aid received was effectively consumed within the household. A corresponding positive effect on non-food expenditure was not found. Our results also indicate that food aid was effective in increasing meals consumed and in avoiding distress destocking of low value assets, but, surprisingly, only for male headed households.     

Adoption of improved wheat varieties and impacts on household food security in Ethiopia

This article evaluates the impact of the adoption of improved wheat varieties on food security using a recent nationally-representative dataset of over 2000 farm households in Ethiopia. We adopted endogenous switching regression treatment effects complemented with a binary propensity score matching methodology to test robustness and reduced selection bias stemming from both observed and unobserved characteristics. We expand this further with the generalized propensity score (GPS) approach to evaluate the effects of continuous treatment on the response of the outcome variables. We find a consistent result across models indicating that adoption increases food security and farm households that did adopt would also have benefited significantly had they adopted new varieties. This study supports the need for vital investments in agricultural research for major food staples widely consumed by the poor, and efforts to improve access to modern varieties and services. Policies that enhance diffusion and adoption of modern wheat varieties should be central to food security strategies in Ethiopia.     

The effect of prime age adult mortality on household composition and consumption in rural Ethiopia

Using panel data from Ethiopia covering 1994–1997, we estimate the impact of prime age adult mortality on household composition, household expenditures and dietary diversity. We employed propensity score matching with a difference-in-difference estimator to control for endogeneity of mortality to the outcomes of interest. Households losing a productive adult did not replenish the lost labor, regardless of economic status, sex or status of the deceased adult. With the exception of non-poor households, adult mortality resulted in increased dependency ratios, but did not adversely affect households’ expenditure patterns (total, food and non-food expenditures) regardless of the sex and position of the deceased and the economic status of the households. Although food expenditures were protected, a decline in dietary diversity, especially among the poorest households, reflected increased nutrition insecurity associated with adult mortality.     

The impact of maize price shocks on household food security: Panel evidence from Tanzania

Using three waves (2008/09, 2010/11, 2012/13) of the Tanzanian National Panel Survey, this study investigates the impact of maize price shocks on household food security. Between 2008/09 and 2012/13, calorie intake stagnated for urban households, yet sharply deteriorated for rural households. The latter was driven by a significant decline in the consumption of the major staple maize which showed strongest price hikes among all major food items. Fixed-effects regressions indicate a clear negative relationship between maize prices and average household energy intake. Almost all population groups were found to be negatively affected by maize price shocks, with rural landless households being the most vulnerable group. In particular, a 50 percent rise in maize prices decreases caloric intake for rural (urban) households on average by 4.4 (5.4) percent, and for rural landless households by 12.6 percent. Results further indicate that subsistence agriculture can act as an effective strategy to insure against food price volatility.     

The impact of the Social Cash Transfer Scheme on food security in Malawi

The Malawi Social Cash Transfer Scheme (SCTS) was launched in 2006 to improve food security by directly providing cash transfers to the country’s most destitute households. Although government-implemented cash transfer schemes have gained popularity throughout Latin America, these schemes are just emerging in Africa. While where there is evidence of the beneficial impact of cash transfers on food security from Latin American countries, there is a dearth of evidence from resource poor countries in Africa.     

The impact of high value markets on smallholder productivity in the Ecuadorean Sierra: A Stochastic Production Frontier approach correcting for selectivity bias

This paper uses data from small-scale potato farmers in Ecuador to examine the impact of the program Plataformas de Concertación on productivity growth. Using propensity score matching combined with a Stochastic Production Frontier model that corrects for sample selection bias, we disaggregate the yield growth attributable to the program into technological change (TC) and technical efficiency (TE). While the results do not exhibit a clear indication of selection bias, the analysis does show that on average beneficiaries exhibit higher yields than control farmers given the same input levels, but lower TE with respect to their own frontiers. These results suggest that while the program raised the technology gap in favor of beneficiaries, it had a negative effect on TE in the short run. The latter finding is consistent with the notion that beneficiaries enjoyed a significant change in production techniques, but it is very likely that they were still in the “learning by doing” stages at the time the data was collected. In fact, the results suggest a fast recovery in TE levels on the part of beneficiaries as time with project increased.     

Local poverty reduction in Chile and Mexico: The role of food manufacturing growth

This paper analyzes the relationship between local poverty and food manufacturing growth in Chile and Mexico using propensity score matching, differences in differences and spatial econometrics methods. We focus on food manufacturing as a sector with a number of characteristics that make it potentially pro-poor, and whose incentives for spatial distribution may either strengthen or dampen its poverty reduction potential. The overall results indicate growth in food manufacturing employment contributes to local poverty reduction.     

Assessing the contribution of artisanal fisheries to food security: A bio-economic modeling approach

Artisanal fisheries are an important food source in many developing regions. Quantitative bio-economic models are needed that comprehensively assess artisanal fisheries’ contribution to food security. Our model combines standard resource economics theory with the literature on food systems. It explains impacts of environmental variations and market development on output, prices and ultimately food security. The application to the Senegalese purse-seine fishery reveals that total sector rents account for 2% of per capita yearly food expenditures for the coastal inhabitants. We examine the relative importance of main drivers and the vulnerability of different regions. Market development plays a crucial role: The resource is of far greater relevance for remote regions.     

The impact of migration on food consumption patterns: The case of Vietnam

This paper explores the relationship between migration and consumption patterns using panel data from the 2004 and 2006 Vietnam Household Living Standards Surveys. Employing an instrumental variable approach to control for the endogeneity of migration, our results indicate that short-term migration has a positive effect on overall per capita food expenditures, per capita calorie consumption and food diversity. Long-term migration also appears to be positively related to consumption, but impacts are often insignificant and of a lesser magnitude than short-term migration. The results provide no evidence of negative effects of migration, and support the view that short-term migration is a mechanism by which households maintain food security. The results suggest that to improve food security the Vietnamese government should enact policies that facilitate short-term migration flows as well as the transferring of remittances.     

Impact of tissue culture banana technology on farm household income and food security in Kenya

While tissue culture (TC) technology for vegetative plant propagation is gradually gaining in importance in Africa, rigorous assessment of broader welfare effects for adopting smallholder farm households is lacking. Using survey data and accounting for selection bias in technology adoption, we analyze the impact of TC banana technology on household income and food security in Kenya. To assess food security outcomes, we employ the Household Food Insecurity Access Scale (HFIAS) – a tool that has not been used for impact assessment before. Estimates of treatment-effects models show that TC banana adoption, combined with improved crop management, causes considerable increases in farm and household income. Technology adoption also reduces relative food insecurity in a significant way. These results indicate that TC technology can be welfare enhancing for adopting farm households. Adoption should be further promoted through upscaling appropriate technology delivery systems.     

Evaluating the impact of reforming the food subsidy program in Egypt: A Mixed Demand approach

Food subsidy is one of the policies considered to protect consumer welfare against food price increases, in particular when the insufficient local production has to be complemented by food imports with volatile prices. Egypt has experienced several “food crises” (the latest in 2008), which put an halt to attempts to reform in depth the system of food subsidies because of social unrest. In this paper, we use a Mixed Demand approach to analyze the consumption structure of Egyptian households. Our model specification takes into consideration the characteristics of the Egyptian food subsidy system, where some food items have predetermined quotas while others are associated with predetermined (subsidized) prices. Price, income and quota elasticities are estimated from the Egyptian family expenditure survey, and welfare change measures are derived by income class. Simulations of various options to eliminate subsidies on selected food items are conducted. We estimate the negative welfare impact of the reforms, especially in the context of increasing food prices, by comparing welfare effects of policy options by income quartiles and by household category (rural, urban).     

The impact of market liberalisation on food security in Zambia

The main elements in agricultural market liberalisation have been the dismantling of the state institutions for marketing and distribution of agricultural produce, the abolition of subsidies, the liberalisation of import and export trade, and the market determination of input and output prices. Economic policy reforms on the monetary, fiscal and other fronts also impinged on the variables influencing production, trade and consumption. This paper highlights some of the undesirable offshoots of the previous policy regime and enumerates the specific policies that have been introduced since 1992. It describes the positive and negative outcomes witnessed so far. Finally, it suggests what needs to be done to eliminate the prevailing major constraints to growth in food production and consumption.     

The impact of survey characteristics on the measurement of food consumption

Survey characteristics affect the quality of the measurement of food consumption within households; thus, it is important to identify best practices for designing surveys that collect food data. This paper analyses the impact of survey characteristics on the measurement of food consumption from a sample of 81 national surveys. Results highlight regularities that can inform best practices in designing surveys and promoting the use of the data for multiple purposes. Surveys focused on food acquisition collect higher food quantities compared to those that target food consumption. Surveys based on recall interviews collect higher food quantities compared to those based on diaries, but the difference decreases with long reference periods. The use of standard units of measurement as well as the consideration of partakers in meals and of seasonality generates significant differences in the survey results. The impact of the different survey characteristics carries substantive implications when food consumption data are employed for assessing food security conditions. The results are part of a wider work program aimed at improving the quality of household survey data. More evidence is needed, ideally through coordinated sets of analyses and experiments in different contexts. Additionally, survey characteristics must be complemented by effective field work in order to generate high quality data. Towards this end, statistical capacity development is crucial to promote better data and more evidence-based decision making.     

Farming fish for profits: A small step towards food security in sub-Saharan Africa

In addition to volatile fluctuations due to seasonal or regional factors, food security has two main components; access and availability. This paper presents a diagrammatical model to indicate how aquaculture, particularly private sector aquaculture, can contribute to these components of food security in sub-Sahara Africa. Food accessibility is increased when commercial aquaculture generates employment. Without such employment the poor might never translate their need for food into effective demand. Food availability is increased, either immediately when aquaculture output is sold in the domestic market, or later when the foreign exchange earned from aquaculture exports is used to import food.     

Experimenting in the cloud: The digital divide's impact on innovation

This paper builds on a recent National Science Foundation working paper that identified a strong association between cloud use and various types of innovation but did not consider whether 1) cloud adoption is a reliable indicator of the innovation orientation of a firm, or 2) cloud adoption enables various types of innovation. We estimate propensity score matching and endogenous treatment effect models to control for innovation orientation, producing evidence to test the second explanation. Findings support an enabling effect of the cloud on innovation providing concrete evidence of the adverse impact of the digital divide.     

Impact of rainfall pattern on cereal market and food security in Sudan: Stochastic approach and CGE model

The paper aims at analysing the impact of the likely change in rainfall on food availability and access to food in Sudan. The empirical investigation is based on an integrated approach consisting of a stochastic method and CGE model. The former, related to the Monte Carlo analysis, provides the likely changes in rainfall patterns and their probability of occurrence based on historical data. These results are at the basis of the scenarios simulated in a standard CGE model augmented with a stochastic component. Achievements underline the negative impact on the two dimensions of food security taken into consideration, mainly due to a reduction in cereal supply, a marked cereal inflation pressure and income contraction; the greater negative effect on the poorest households; and a deterioration of the economic performance of the country. In this context, the paper stresses a strong interconnection among climate change and variability, poverty and food insecurity and thus the need for an integrated policy-making approach.     

Food security and nutrition challenges in Tajikistan: Opportunities for a systems approach

Despite progress in poverty reduction achieved over the last two decades, Tajikistan’s food security situation remains challenging. Recent studies and analyses have highlighted progress as well as areas that require increased attention from the Government of the Republic of Tajikistan and international development partners. The paper argues that a systems approach that takes into consideration policy interventions by different sectors is required to more effectively improve access and affordability of healthy diets, contributing to a better food security and nutrition situation of the population.     

Does food aid have disincentive effects on local production? A general equilibrium perspective on food aid in Ethiopia

This paper examined impacts of food aid on domestic food production employing a computable general equilibrium modelling technique and using data from Ethiopia. The simulation experiments have shown that food aid has unambiguous disincentive effects on domestic food production. The removal of food aid caused a modest increase in food prices but this stimulated food production. Employment and income generation effects of the latter outweighed the adverse effect of the former. Consequently, the removal of food aid led to improvements in aggregate household welfare. Contrary to some concerns in the food aid literature that any reduction in food aid would hurt the poor, the simulation experiments suggested that actually poor rural households and urban wage earners are the ones who benefit most in absence of food aid but entrepreneurs are more likely to encounter a marginal welfare decline. We have distinguished between in-kind food aid and cash equivalent transfers in order to isolate the disincentives that in-kind transfers would make to domestic production from those that are related to household purchasing power problem. The expansionary effect of removing food aid becomes significantly larger when it is accompanied by cash equivalent payments because the latter would provide demand side stimulus to agriculture while the removal of in-kind transfers would stimulate supply side, with the supply and demand side effects reinforcing each other. In our modelling framework, the only adverse effect would be a modest deterioration in the external current account, because the expansionary effects of food aid would cause imports to rise but exports to fall.     

Postmodern conceptualizations,modernist applications: Rethinking the role of society in food security

Food security studies, while giving ever more attention to issues of perception and local knowledge in food outcomes, have yet to engage in a systematic discussion of the role played by society in food outcomes. While contemporary studies of food outcomes address issues of the social, especially as social structures relate to access to and production of food, this literature lacks an accompanying theory of the social that might lend it broad, cross-contextual coherence.