Firm exit after distress: differentiating between bankruptcy, voluntary liquidation and M&A

This paper examines firm-level determinants of mature firm exits after economic distress. Using nested logit models and a sample of 6,118 distress-related exits in Belgium, we analyze the type of exit that distressed firms experience. We show that 41% of the firms in our sample exit through a court driven exit procedure (mainly bankruptcy), 44% are voluntarily liquidated and 14% are acquired, merged or split (hereafter M&A). Distressed firm exit follows two distinct stages. First, a firm either decides to exit voluntarily or is forced into bankruptcy, which is the least efficient exit strategy. Compared to bankruptcy, the probability of a voluntary exit increases with higher levels of cash, lower leverage, holding no secured debt and being embedded in a group. If a firm exits voluntarily, it enters a second stage and decides either to exit through voluntary liquidation or through a M&A. Conditional on not going bankrupt, the likelihood of voluntary liquidation compared to M&A increases with higher levels of cash or secured debt, with smaller size and with an absence of group relations. We contribute to the firm exit literature by jointly analyzing three exit types and showing that bankruptcy and voluntary liquidation are fundamentally different exit routes. While voluntary liquidation is an important exit route for distressed firms, most previous studies have failed to distinguish between bankruptcy and liquidation. We hence contribute to the exit literature by showing that bankruptcy, voluntary liquidation and M&A are fundamentally distinct exit routes for distressed firms, driven by different firm level characteristics and following a two-stage process.     

The Bankruptcy Prediction Power of New Entrants

Abstract

This study aims to determine if the number of new entrants provides a useful tool for forecasting the probability of a firm’s liquidation. We assess how the formation of new firms in a firm’s geographical location influences the likelihood of liquidation. Using a sample of 825 non-listed French industrial firms located in small cities, our estimates show that an increase in the number of new industrial firms in a firm’s location has a positive and significant impact on the probability of a firm being liquidated. The emergence of new firms seems to have stronger power in predicting bankruptcy than other financial variables such as leverage or the rate of exports.     

Institutions and corporate capital structure in the MENA region

This paper provides novel evidence on firm- and country-level determinants of firm capital structure decisions in the MENA region. Using a sample of 444 listed firms from ten countries, over the 2003–2011 period, we find that MENA firms have target leverage ratios towards which they adjust over time. Yet, the speed of adjustment varies from one country to another. Our findings also suggest that some firm-level factors are associated with leverage consistent with the trade-off and pecking order theories of capital structure. We further find robust evidence that better institutional quality leads firms to use more debt.     

Firm-Level Determinants of the Financing Decisions of Small and Medium Enterprises: Evidence from Argentina

This article studies the determinants of the financing decisions of small and medium enterprises (SMEs), which we characterize through three cases: trade-off behavior, pecking order, and extreme aversion to debt. We test our hypotheses using a dataset of firms from Bahía Blanca (Argentina) for two years: 2006 and 2010. We find that firm characteristics related to information asymmetries, such as firm age, size, and legal form; and personal factors, such as owner’s age and education; and perception of emotional bankruptcy costs, are relevant variables in SME financing behavior. The recognition of extreme aversion to debt motivates reconsideration of the underleverage problem of SMEs.     

Capital structure of Chinese listed SMEs: an agency theory perspective

Prior work examining the antecedents of capital structure for small and medium-sized enterprises in emerging markets is limited. This paper sheds light on how the corporate governance mechanisms adopted by firms on the newly established Growth Enterprise Market (GEM) in China influence their use of debt. We find that the financial leverage of GEM firms is positively influenced by executives’ shareholding and their excess cash compensation. Ownership concentration appears to reduce leverage, whereas the percentage of tradable shares increases leverage. In contrast, institutional investors’ shareholding does not influence the level of debt. Traditional factors such as tax and operating cash flow are insignificant in explaining the debt levels among GEM firms.     

Internal Restructuring and Firm Survival

We examine the impact of two common methods of internal restructuring, layoffs and divestitures on the survival of a sample of UK firms. Using a Poisson regression model, we find that divestitures improve survival likelihood by reducing the probability and speed of market exit via takeover or bankruptcy, whereas layoffs increase the probability and speed of market exit via bankruptcy. Surprisingly, classifying firms into financially distressed and healthy groups, we find that distressed firms are less likely to restructure. Furthermore, while divestitures improve survival likelihood in both groups, layoff firms are less likely to survive, irrespective of whether they are distressed or healthy. Our findings are consistent with event studies that examine the market reaction to layoffs and divestiture decisions, and so provide some support for the view that the market correctly values the consequences of these restructuring actions on firm survival. The results are robust to several econometric and modeling issues, including controlling for potential self‐selection bias.     

产品市场竞争与资本结构的战略决策

“有限负债效应”理论指出,企业提高财务杠杆导致了产出的增加,但很多实证研究却难以支持这一结论。本文分析了在上游企业外部规模效应较强的情况下,企业债务融资战略效应为负的理由,证明了不存在外部规模效应是债务融资战略的重要条件。企业的融资行为深受财务危机的影响,其中企业规模、产业集中度、产品专用性、R&D支出和行业前景是决定财务危机成本大小的关键变量,因此,以财务危机成本为依据进行决策,企业会自我限制债务水平。由此,企业资本结构的决策应从产品市场竞争状况去考虑,这对我国企业融资决策有重要意义。     

Ownership and capital structure in Latin America

This study evaluates the capital-structure determinants of Latin American firms using a comprehensive sample covering seven countries. Firms in the region have debt levels similar to those of U.S. firms, which is puzzling, given that Latin American firms experience relatively lower tax benefits and higher bankruptcy costs. This study argues that ownership-concentrated firms avoid issuing equity because they do not want to share control rights. Latin American firms have high ownership concentration, which creates an ideal setting to study how ownership concentration explains firms' capital structure. Consistent with the control argument, this study finds a positive relation between leverage and ownership concentration, when losing control becomes an issue. Also, the study shows a positive relation between leverage and growth. In addition, the study reports that other determinants that do not proxy for control rights are consistent with previous findings. Firms that are larger, have more tangible assets, and are less profitable are also more leveraged.     

On the simultaneity of real and financial policies

This study investigates the interdependencies between a firm's real and financial decisions. One cause of this interdependence is, as with several previous studies, the real costs associated with bankruptcy. A classical multiperiod model is developed which allows for the endogeneity of debt issues, interest rates, the probability of firm default, and dividends. The modeling suggests an explanation for dividend determination which differs from traditional views. The resulting explanation is that funds are always channelled into the most profitable use. Thus, the model generates an optimal quantity of dividends which cannot be altered without decreasing the expected return to equity.     

Variance of Firm Performance and Leverage of Small Businesses

We investigate the relationship between leverage and firm performance using small business data from Japan by estimating the effects of leverage on both average firm performance and the variance of firm performance. We find that leverage has a negative effect on average firm performance and a positive effect on the variance of firm performance. This suggests that the problem of moral hazard is severe for highly leveraged firms. However, when highly leveraged firms have sufficient collateral assets, the effects of leverage are positive for average performance, but negative for the variance of performance. This implies that when small firms have sufficient collateral assets, highly leveraged businesses are better performers.     

Do Leveraged Firms Underinvest in Corporate Social Responsibility? Evidence from Health and Safety Programs in U.S. Firms

The explosion of health-related costs in U.S. firms over more than a decade is a huge concern for managers. The initiation of Health and Safety (H&;S) programs at the firm level is an adequate Corporate Social Responsibility (CSR) initiative to contain this evolution. However, in spite of their documented efficiency, firms underinvest in those programs. This appears as a puzzle for health economists. In this paper, we uncover a strong negative relation of financial leverage to the implementation of H&;S programs. The negative impact of debt on investment and CSR activities is generally interpreted as an efficient disciplinary effect of debt on managers. H&;S are particularly well suited to revisit this evidence, given their strong profitability and homogeneity across firms. Very interestingly, the negative effect is stronger for firms with high free cash flows, for which debt is used to prevent overinvestment. This strongly suggests that debt, while disciplining managers, also discourages investments which are valuable both for firms and society.     

Product market competition and access to credit

In this paper, we unveil a disregarded benefit of product market competition for firms. We introduce the probability of bankruptcy in a simple model where firms compete à la Cournot and apply for collateralized bank loans to undertake productive investments. We show that the number of competitors and the existence of outsiders willing to acquire the productive assets of distressed incumbents affect the equilibrium share of investment financed by bank credit. Using a sample of Italian manufacturing firms, mostly small- and medium-sized enterprises (SMEs), we found evidence showing that the degree of product market competition is positively correlated with the share of investment financed by bank credit only when outsiders are absent.     

Banking sector reforms and corporate leverage in emerging markets

Using a large panel of non-financial firms in emerging markets, we study the relation between detailed measures of banking sector reforms and corporate leverage. We find that banking sector reforms are associated with lower corporate debt in emerging market firms, consistent with the notion that these reforms improve banks' risk management and result in tighter lending standards, leading firms to use less bank debt in their capital structure. These effects are less pronounced for financially constrained firms, suggesting a relative increase in the supply of bank credit to firms which were rationed prior to the banking sector reforms.     

International Debt Shifting: The Value-Maximizing Mix of Internal and External Debt

Abstract

We study the capital structure of multinationals and expand previous theory by incorporating international debt tax shield effects from both internal and external capital markets. We show that: (i) multinationals’ firm value is maximized if both internal and external debt are used to save tax; (ii) the use of internal and external debt is independent of each other; and (iii) multinationals have a tax advantage over domestic firms, which cannot shift debt across international borders. We test our model using a large panel of German multinationals and find that internal and external debt shifting are of about equal importance.     

Housing boom,real estate diversification,and capital structure: Evidence from China

By exploiting the unique situation in China that numbers of listed firms diversified into the real estate industry during the recent housing boom period, we find that firms' real estate diversification positively influences their subsequent leverage ratios. Further investigations suggest that such an increase in leverage mainly comes from short-term debt instead of long-term debt. We also find that housing price growth and state ownership are underlying mechanisms through which real estate diversification stimulates leverage. Last, we find that firms with real estate diversification enjoy less financing cost deterioration and less market value deterioration when they raise more debt.     

中国上市公司控股结构与债务融资关系的实证研究

论文以中国五个行业上市公司2005年的横截面数据为样本,通过分析第一大股东终极现金流量权与债务融资比例的经验关系,考察了负债的股权非稀释性和破产机制的治理作用.研究发现,非国有上市公司大股东的终极现金流量权比例与公司债务水平呈一种非线性的倒"U"型关系;而国有上市公司大股东的终极现金流量权比例与公司的债务融资水平则呈一种非线性的"U"型关系.此外,论文并没有发现股权制衡结构能够对大股东控制下的债务融资决策产生影响.     

How federally insured reverse mortgages affect the credit outcomes of older adults

This study examines how the extraction of home equity through the federally insured Home Equity Conversion Mortgage (HECM) affects the credit outcomes of older adults. We use data from the Federal Reserve Bank of New York/Equifax Consumer Credit Panel, supplemented with a unique credit panel data set of reverse mortgage borrowers. Using matched sample difference-in-differences with individual fixed effects, we estimate credit outcomes for older adults who borrowed through a HECM between 2008 and 2011, relative to older homeowners not borrowing from home equity. Our results indicate that the HECM is associated with a short-term reduction in revolving credit card debt, as well as a reduction in the probability of bankruptcy. We find some evidence of heterogeneous treatment effects, where older adults with higher levels of consumer debt prior to originating a HECM experience larger subsequent declines in debt, increases in credit score, and steeper reductions in bankruptcy rates.     

The Financial Structure of Private Held Belgian Firms

We examine the determinants of the debt-equity choice and the debt maturity choice for a sample of small, privately held firms in a creditor oriented environment. Our results, which are based on 4,706 firm-year observations for 1132 Belgian firms in the period 1996–2000, generally confirm the role of asymmetric information and agency costs of debt as major determinants of the financial structure of privately held firms. High growth firms and firms with less tangible assets have a lower debt ratio. We also find that more profitable firms have less debt. Firms tend to match the maturity of debt with the maturity of their assets. Growth options do not seem to influence debt maturity, which would suggest that the underinvestment problem is resolved by lowering leverage and by bank monitoring, not by reducing debt maturity. Credit risk is also an important determinant of debt maturity: firms with higher credit risk borrow more on the short term. Finally, in contrast to most studies on the financial structure of companies, we find that larger firms tend to have a higher debt ratio and a shorter debt maturity.      

Determinants of corporate hedging and derivatives: A revisit

Although the primary purpose of hedging is to reduce earnings volatility, corporate hedging may also increase firm value. Using publicly-available data, we found that hedging reduces the probability of financial distress, reduces the agency costs of debt, and reduces some agency costs of equity. However, we found no support for the hypothesis that hedging increases firm value by reducing expected tax liability. In addition, we suggest that corporate ownership structure may affect the desirability of hedging. We also found that large firms have a stronger tendency to hedge, firms with a larger percentage of value derived from growth opportunities are more likely to hedge, and convertible debt serves as a substitute for corporate hedging. With a dummy variable for multinational corporations as a proxy for operational hedging, we found that operational hedging and derivative hedging are complements rather than substitutes.