Lifecycle bias in estimates of intergenerational earnings persistence

This paper identifies a significant negative relationship between estimated intergenerational earnings persistence and the age at which fathers are observed. In total, the estimation methodology and the age of the father at observation account for 40 percent of the variation among existing studies. The paper explores two possible causes of this pattern: increasing attenuation bias resulting from growing transitory earnings variance and a lifecycle bias which follows from the rise in permanent earnings variance over the lifecycle. Evidence presented favors the latter explanation over the former. The paper also considers both formal and informal approaches to mitigating the lifecycle bias.     

Home Ownership and School Outcomes of Children: Evidence from the PSID Child Development Supplement

Using the PSID Child Development Supplement (CDS) and the corresponding PSID main data sets, we examine whether home ownership has positive effects on the academic achievement of children after correcting for selectivity bias and controlling for home environment, neighborhood quality, residential stability, and income. While we find no independent effects of home ownership, there are positive significant effects of home environment, neighborhood quality, and residential stability on the reading and math performance of children between the ages of three and twelve. The main policy implication of our study is that improvement of a child's home environment, residential stability, and the quality of the neighborhood is more important than ownership of a home to achieve better child outcomes. Subsidized home ownership can lead to better child outcomes to the extent that it places a child in a better home environment, in a more stable residence, and in a better neighborhood.     

Life-cycle variations in the association between current and lifetime earnings: Evidence for German natives and guest workers

In many economic models a central variable of interest is lifetime or permanent income which is not observed in survey data sets and typically proxied by annual income information. To assess the quality of such approximations, we use a unique source of lifetime earnings — the German pension system — and focus on two important issues that have been largely ignored in the existing literature. The first is how to deal with zero income observations in the analysis of women. The second is whether these approximations differ between natives and guest workers. For female earners, we find that estimates of the associations between current and lifetime income are highly sensitive to the treatment of zero earnings. The reason turns out to be the highly cyclical nature of the labor supply behavior of mothers. Furthermore, immigrants' income proxies are prone to significantly larger attenuation biases over the entire life-cycle. This result is explained by the larger share of annual income variance attributable to the transitory income component for immigrants. Averaging income over up to 15 years alleviates the attenuation bias as well as the difference in biases between natives and guest workers.     

Estimation of sons' intergenerational earnings mobility in the presence of censoring

Based on intergenerational data from the Panel Study of Income Dynamics, I provide estimates of income mobility across generations for men. Special attention is paid to issues of censoring caused by a son's unemployment. Employing non‐parametric bounds estimates, I illustrate that previous income mobility estimates rely heavily on (unjustified) assumptions of exogenous selection. Assuming a son's potential income is instead a function of his reason for unemployment and work history, I re‐estimate mobility. Allowing for sampling variability, the range of feasible slopes consistent with these modified bounds restrictions is 0.27 to 0.55. Copyright © 2002 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Profit efficiency and earnings quality: Evidence from the Spanish banking industry

Journal of Productivity Analysis - The analysis of efficiency and productivity in banking has received a great deal of attention for almost three decades now. However, most of the existing...     

The distribution of lifetime earnings: a problem of intertemporal aggregation

Summary The main reason to study lifetime earnings as opposed to annual earnings is that the former are purged of life cycle influences. If annual earnings are described by a random variable, it logically follows that lifetime earnings are also random. This paper examines the implications of this statement, starting from the basic assumption that annual earnings of a new entrant to the labor force are a drawing from a two parameter lognormal distribution. It is found that the probability distribution function of lifetime earnings can be derived explicitly if one is willing to define lifetime earnings as a geometric mean.     

Marketplace matching in Britain: Evidence from individual unemployment spells

This paper investigates job matching patterns in Great Britain. Evidence from individual transitions out of unemployment demonstrates that recently unemployed workers are likely to find jobs in the existing stock of vacancies. If, however, they are unlucky and fail to match early on, job seekers cease matching with existing vacancies. Workers with longer unemployment spells instead form matches with the flow of new vacancies. This pattern is more pronounced for workers who experienced only short spells of employment prior to their current job search. This evidence provides robust support for stock-flow matching but is difficult to reconcile with random matching.     

A change in the earnings penalty for British men with working wives: Evidence from the 1980's and 1990's

Using pooled cross-sectional data from 1984–1989 and 1990–1995, two-stage (Tobit/OLS) regressions show that the penalty on male earnings for working wives, found in earlier research for British males in the early 1980's in managerial and other occupations, is not present in the second half of the 1980's and is largely reversed by the 1990's; in most occupational clusters, managers most notably, it is replaced by an earnings premium. The results are consistent with a view that increases in married women's labor force participation in Britain, coupled with positive assortative mating, have overwhelmed any forces tending to reduce male salaries when their wives work.     

The impact of computer use on earnings in a developing country: Evidence from Ecuador

This paper examines the earnings premium to computer use in a developing country: Ecuador. We use different approaches to examine whether the premium is causal. Controlling for an extensive set of observables, we find an earnings difference between users and non-users of around 20%. Using first differences, the premium drops and is no longer significant in a specification that includes proxies for workers' computer experience and knowledge. Estimates of the impact of the intensity of computer use are also small and in most cases insignificant. Estimates of the pencil premium are substantial in level specifications, but become insignificant in fixed effect specifications. Taken together, also in the setting of a developing country we do not find evidence in favour of the computer premium reflecting a causal impact.     

Evidence on the motivation for management forecasts of corporate earnings

A multivariate model of the process by which managers decide to release public forecasts of their firms' earnings is developed, based on factors that are hypothesized to affect the demand for and the willingness to supply such forecasts. We test the model on data from a comprehensive sample of earnings forecasts, and find support for our hypotheses about the likely joint influence of those factors. Larger firm size, greater leverage, higher and more stable earnings rates and less rapid growth rates are found to be associated with an increased propensity for management to provide earnings forecasts for their firms.     

Risk management in life insurance companies: Evidence from Taiwan

The solvency issue of life insurance companies has become more important in recent years as business risks turn increasingly greater. This study examines the relationship among investing risk, underwriting risk, and the capital ratio during the post risk-based capital regulation period of 2004–2009 in Taiwan. In addition to the two-stage least square regression (2SLS), we also adopt the two-stage quantile regression (2SQR) to capture the effects of low capital (or risk) levels and high capital (or risk) levels. 2SLS do not fully explain the capital-risk relation. Contrary to previous evidence reported in the U.S., our findings in 2SQR model indicate that the relationship between capital and underwriting risk is positive, while the relationship between investing risk and capital shows a reverse pattern. Overall, the 2SQR provides stronger evidence than the 2SLS.     

Productive behavior through the life course: An essay on the quality of life

Present patterns of productive activity are neither well recognized, optimal for society, nor in accordance with individual prefence. Although a great deal of attention has been given to meeting people's needs for income, medical care, and other services, the quality of their lives must also be defined by what they do for themselves and for others. In discovering present patterns of productive activity throughout the life course and optimizing those patterns, we will raise the quality of American life. To accomplish this task, two great changes are needed: we must recognize the full range of productive activities throughout the life course and give people the opportunity to modify the allocation of paid employment.     

Short sale constraints,dispersion of opinion,and stock overvaluation: Evidence from earnings announcements in China

Using a clean setting in China, we test the Miller (1977) hypothesis that stocks are overvalued in the presence of short sale constraints and dispersion of opinion as an extension of Berkman et al. (2009). We find that stocks with short sale constraints have significantly negative abnormal returns during earnings announcement periods, especially when investors have diverse opinions. These results are robust to alternative measures of abnormal returns and endogeneity concern. The findings help to explain the impact of short sale constraints on pricing efficiency and have important policy implications for relaxing restrictions on short selling and improving regular information disclosure in emerging markets.     

The dynamic effects of an earnings subsidy for long-term welfare recipients: Evidence from the self sufficiency project applicant experiment

In the Self Sufficiency Project Applicant Experiment, new welfare entrants were informed that if they remained on public assistance for a year they would become eligible to receive a generous earnings subsidy offer. Those who satisfied the waiting period, and then left welfare and began working full time within the following year, were entitled to receive payments for up to 36 months whenever they were off welfare and working full time. A simple optimizing model suggests that the program rules created an unusual sequence of incentives: (1) to prolong the initial spell on welfare for at least 12 months to become eligible for the subsidy offer; (2) to lock in subsidy entitlement by finding full time work and leaving welfare in the 12–24 month period after initial entry; and (3) to choose work over welfare during the three years that subsidies were available. Consistent with these implications, comparisons between the experimental treatment group and a randomly assigned control group show that the program increased welfare participation in the first year after initial entry and lowered it over the following 5 years. We develop an econometric model of welfare participation and program eligibility status that allows us to separately identify the behavioral effects associated with the program rules. We find important responses to all three incentives, and that the program impact persisted after subsidy payments ended, although the effect decayed over time.     

Volatility persistence,long memory and time-varying unconditional mean: Evidence from 10 equity indices

This paper re-examines evidence of volatility persistence and long memory in the light of potential time-variation in the unconditional mean of the volatility series. Daily equity volatility is generally regarded as exhibiting long memory, however, recent evidence has suggested that long memory may be a spurious finding arising from neglected breaks or time-variation in unconditional variance. The results presented here suggested that long memory is apparent when analysed on the assumption that unconditional variance is constant. However, both breakpoint tests and a moving average application suggest that unconditional variance exhibits substantial, although slow moving, time-variation. The apparent long-memory property largely disappears when this time-variation is taken into account. A modification of the GARCH model to allow for mean variation generates improved volatility forecasting performance, but only over long horizon. At the daily level the assumption of a constant unconditional variance does not seem to affect forecasts.     

Varying biases in matching estimates: Evidence from two randomised job search training experiments

We compare various matching estimators with the results from two randomised field experiments that evaluate the employment effects of job search training programmes. We find that commonly used non-experimental matching estimators tend to overestimate the programme effects, especially in the first experiment in which participation in the programme is voluntary. In the second experiment, where caseworkers assign unemployed persons to the training programme, the matching methods produce estimates that are close to the experimental results.     

Interest rate derivatives and risk exposure: Evidence from the life insurance industry

Our primary aim in this study is to determine the relation that exists between the use of interest rate derivatives by public-traded life insurance firms and their exposure to interest rate risk. Based upon the annual reports and 10-K filings of US life insurers, covering the years 2000–2016, we find that those insurers with greater inherent exposure to interest rate risk also have a propensity for extensive engagement in the use of interest rate derivatives. We further reveal that life insurers with a propensity for the extensive use of such instruments during the 2000–2009 sub-period tend to have greater observable exposure to interest rate risk. However, during the 2010–2016 sub-period life insurers that use more interest rate derivatives tend to have smaller interest rate exposure. Since restructuring the balance sheet of a life insurer is costly, our results suggest that managers probably use derivatives as a means of modifying their risk tolerance to achieve the same results of direct duration matching.     

Is there a managerial life cycle? Evidence from the NFL

We use data from the NFL over 1920–2004 to examine the relationship between age and managerial performance controlling for other relevant influences. Our results indicate that age enhances performance up to a point at which increasing age predicts diminished performance—a managerial life cycle. Moreover, rates of change in the life cycle are relatively gradual, which is consistent with gradual changes in the marginal product of human capital and depreciation rates for human capital rather than levels that are fixed for long periods. With a lag of about 7–10 years, the effects are very similar to those found between age and athletic performance in previous studies by Fair. Copyright © 2006 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Language usage,participation, employment and earnings: Evidence for foreigners in West Germany with multiple sources of selection

Language proficiency may not only affect the earnings of the individual, but the probability to participate in the labor market or becoming employed as well. It may also affect selection of people into economic sector and occupation. In this paper, the effects of language proficiency on earnings are analyzed for foreigners in Germany with joint consideration of up to four types of selection. The results show that language proficiency significantly increases participation and employment probability and affects occupational choice. When selection into economic sector and occupation is regarded, we do not find an impact of language ability on earnings thereby implying an indirect effect.     

Capital market reactions to earnings announcements: empirical evidence on the difference in the information content of IAS-based earnings and EC-Directives-based earnings

Listing on a foreign stock exchange and the aim to attract international investors usually forces European quoted companies to adapt information supplied in financial statements to different information needs of international investors. Because of the dominance of the American stock market, this adaptation raises especially the question whether Anglo-American-oriented accounting standards (for instance IAS — International Accounting Standards) convey a higher information content for investors than continental-Europe-oriented accounting standards (for instance EC-Directives). The study examines the information content of earnings announcements, i.e. abnormal returns resulting from un-expected earnings, for a sample of Swiss quoted companies which have changed the accounting standard used for presenting Swiss GAAP consolidated financial statements to either EC-Directives or IAS and can therefore contribute to this discussion. The results of the study suggest that IAS-based earnings announce-ments convey a statistically significant higher information content than earnings announcements based on the Swiss GAAP if a variance-approach is used. For investors in the Swiss capital market, the switch from Swiss GAAP to IAS has therefore increased the information content of financial statements. But comparing IAS-based and EC-Directives-based earnings announcements, the results suggest that for investors IAS-based earnings do not possess a statistically significant higher information content than EC-Directives-based earnings. This result has been achieved despite the fact that for Swiss financial analysts financial statements based on IAS convey a significant higher information content than financial statements based on EC-Directives. Avoiding problems in specifying a model for unexpected earnings by standardizing the mean of the abnormal returns of each event window to a positive value does not lead to a different conclusion if the variance approach is used.