Regional production networks,service offshoring,and productivity in East Asia

Using the Asian International Input–Output Table (1990, 1995, and 2000), this paper explores regional production networks and offshoring of material and service inputs in East Asia. In doing so, offshoring is measured directly from the Table, which has not been used in previous literature regarding this issue. It turns out that East Asian countries source significant shares of inputs within East Asia. In addition to material offshoring, service offshoring in East Asia has become increasingly common in the era of globalization. We also evaluate the effects of this fast growing offshoring on productivity. Our econometric results demonstrate that offshoring exerts a significant and positive impact on total factor productivity in East Asia. Service offshoring, in particular, performs a more significant role than material offshoring.     

Vertical intra-industry trade and foreign direct investment in East Asia

As economic integration in East Asia progresses, trade patterns within the region are displaying an ever-greater complexity: Though inter-industry trade still accounts for the majority, its share in overall trade is declining. Instead, intra-industry trade (IIT), which can be further divided into horizontal IIT (HIIT) and vertical IIT (VIIT), is growing in importance.In this paper, we set out to measure and examine vertical intra-industry trade patterns in the East Asian region and compare these with the results of previous studies focusing on the EU, to which such analyses so far have been confined. Based on the supposition that VIIT is closely related to offshore production by multinational enterprises, we then develop a model to capture the main determinants of VIIT that explicitly includes the role of FDI. The model is tested empirically using data from the electrical machinery industry. The findings support our hypothesis, showing that FDI plays a significant role in the rapid increase in VIIT in East Asia seen in recent years. J. Japanese Int. Economies 17 (4) (2003) 468–506.     

Global production networks and China's processing trade

This paper unveils a systematic pattern in China's processing trade. In a cross-section of Chinese provinces, the average distance traveled by processing imports (import distance) is negatively correlated to the average distance traveled by processing exports (export distance). To explain this pattern, we set up a three-country industry-equilibrium model in which heterogeneous firms from two advanced countries, East and West, sell their products in each other's markets. Each firm can use two modes to serve the foreign market. It can directly export its products from its home country. Alternatively, it can indirectly export to the foreign market by assembling its product in a third low-cost country, China, which is located in the vicinity of East. Our model establishes two theoretical predictions relating China's geographical location to its processing trade patterns. First, China's processing exports are negatively affected by both an increase in import distance and a rise in export distance. Second, China's processing exports to East Asian countries are more sensitive to export distance and less sensitive to import distance than its processing exports to non-Asian countries. We find empirical support for both predictions.     

东亚经济体的汇率稳定与出口结构因素

本文从理论视角描述了汇率对出口价格传递机制:在进口的投入品比例高时,或出口产品与外国产品相似、竞争激烈时,出口变化对汇率的变动不敏感。而东亚地区出口结构符合这一特性。对于不可避免地增加汇率弹性的中国,也只有使出口结构高级化,才是人民币升值坚实的基础。     

东亚国家钉住汇率制度的可持续性研究

本文运用生存分析法，对东亚9国近60年钉住汇率制度的可持续性进行了实证研究。结果表明，东亚国家维持稳定的钉住汇率制度的总“生存时间”至多为51年，其影响因素主要是国内经济变量，故一国若要实现钉住汇率制度的维持与存续，需要保持相对较低的物价和利率水平，以及相对较高的货币供给增长率和国内信贷水平。     

东亚地区自由贸易协定的发展现状及中国的对策

20世纪90年代以来,东亚区域内自由贸易协定和跨区域贸易协定蓬勃发展,东亚地区贸易政策走向多元化。本文首先分析了东亚自由贸易协定的发展现状和主要成员自由贸易协定的战略,接着总结了东亚地区自由贸易协定蓬勃发展的原因和特点,并提出了中国应对东亚地区自由贸易协定发展的建议。     

从国际生产网络视角考察东亚贸易模式转变

东亚的雁行国际分工与组织模式自上世纪90年代以来逐渐衰落,其带动东亚贸易发展的作用下降。但是一种新的分工与组织方式——国际生产网络——随即出现。本文从国际生产网络这一新的视角,考察了近年来在新的组织和分工方式下东亚贸易模式的转变,并对东亚未来贸易发展模式进行了展望。     

The effect of exchange rate volatility on international trade in East Asia

In this paper, we empirically investigate the relationship between exchange rate volatility and international trade, focusing on East Asia. Our findings are summarized as follows: first, intra-East Asian trade is discouraged by exchange rate volatility more seriously than trade in other regions. Second, one important source of the discouragement is that intermediate goods trade in international production networks, which is quite sensitive to exchange rate volatility compared with other types of trade, occupies a significant fraction of East Asian trade. Third, the negative effect of the volatility is greater than that of tariffs and smaller than that of distance-related costs in East Asia.     

"东亚的外国直接投资:经验与启示"国际研讨会综述

由世界银行研究所和中国社会科学院世界经济与政治研究所共同主办的“东亚的外国直接投资--经验与启示”国际学术研讨会近期在北京召开。来自日本、中国香港、中国、新加坡、马来西亚、菲律宾、越南等10多个国家和地区该领域的资深专家学者与会。研讨会的议题包括三个部分:一、东亚FDI的总体情况;二、东亚FDI来源国的案例分析;三、东亚FDI接受国的案例分析。来自新加坡国际问题研究所的谢陈秀瑜博士做了《外国直接投资与经济发展:东亚的经验与启示》的主题报告。投资来源地选取了日本(世界银行顾问TsutomuShibata做报告,评论人为国务院发展研究中心对外经济部部长赵晋平)和中国香港(香港岭南大学的陈坤耀博士,评论人为中山大学岭南学院院长许罗丹)作为案例;投资接受国的案例为中国(中国社科院世界经济与政治研究所所长余永定博士,评论人为南开大学泰达学院院长冼国明)、菲律宾(菲律宾的MyrnaS.Austria博士,评论人为南京大学的沈坤荣教授)和越南(日本早稻田大学的陈文寿教授,评论人为北京师范大学的贺立平教授)。这里刊登部分与会中国学者对主要报告的观点介绍及其评论。     

东亚自由贸易区：从东亚走廓起步

20世纪遗留给东亚诸国的经济课题之一是,在大竞争的时代里,如何继续保持曾为东亚经济发展带来过大红大紫辉煌的“东亚奇迹”时的经济增长势头,面对欧洲共同休(EU),北美经济共同体(NAFTA)的强大竞争和挑战时,东亚各国能拧成一股劲,以立于不败之地。……     

The role of production fragmentation in international business cycle synchronization in East Asia

This paper analyzes factors contributing to the observed increase in international business cycle synchronization between eight East Asian developing countries and the major developed economies of Japan and the United States. To this end, a two-country dynamic general equilibrium (DGE) model is proposed which focuses on the role of production fragmentation among these countries. A key feature of the model is that it includes the trade in differentiated capital goods, which are added to the capital stock for production, and the technology embodied in these capital goods. The parameters of the model are calibrated using actual data of the countries included. Model simulations are conducted for two periods (1993–1997 and 1999–2005), before and after the Asian financial crisis, showing that the increase in business cycle synchronization can be attributed mainly to the growing fragmentation of production activities.     

东亚区域经济整合的机遇与挑战——第九届“东亚经济合作论坛”综述

2005年11月24～25日,第九届“东亚经济合作论坛”在广西南宁市举办。本次论坛由综合开发研究院(中国·深圳)和日本综合研究开发机构共同主办,并得到了广西壮族自治区政府的大力支持。本次论坛的主题是“东亚区域经济整合:地区发展的新机遇”。来自日本、泰国、越南、菲律宾、新     

Patterns and determinants of intra-industry trade in Asia

Intra-industry trade (IIT) has gained in importance across Asia as a result of the rapid growth of Asian economies and their key role in the international fragmentation of production. This paper examines the level of IIT for 22 countries in East, Southeast, South, and Central Asia in 2003. IIT is measured as a multilateral trade-weighted index and is reported for ten different categories of goods in the primary and secondary sectors. In addition, the determinants of IIT are investigated using a Tobit regression model. The results indicate that ASEAN and the high-income countries in East Asia exhibit the highest levels of IIT, followed closely by China and India. R&D spending, openness, and a higher share of manufactured exports were found to promote IIT, while geographical distance and the difference in economic size had an adverse effect, especially for manufactured goods. The ASEAN free trade area was most prominently associated with IIT across all SITC categories. Central and South Asian regional trade agreements had a positive influence on IIT in primary products.     

Foreign Investment in East Asia: A Survey

This article updates the May 1989 literature survey on foreign direct investment (FDI) in the East Asian region published in this journal. Following an overview of trends of FDI in the 1990s, it focuses on three key issues: the impact of the recent Asian economic crisis on FDI inflow relative to other forms of capital inflows; the link between FDI and trade; and technology transfer and adaptation. It is too early to discern the implications of the crisis for host-country policies and investment decisions of multinational corporations, but the indications are that FDI will continue to play a pivotal role in economic transformation, and in regional and global economic integration.     

Macroeconomic interdependence in East Asia

This paper analyzes macroeconomic interdependence among 10 Asian economies. In this connection, we decompose their macroeconomic activities (real GDP) into common and country-specific components using the Bai–Ng method (2004). Our results suggest first that both components are non-stationary and have permanent effects on their overall economy. Second, we find the relative importance of common factors in all countries in terms of their contribution to variations in real GDP. But evidence is also obtained for country-specific effects becoming increasingly important in countries like China in recent years. Therefore, if, for example, China is expected to grow at a fast pace in future, our findings imply that creation of a regional monetary union of these 10 countries needs to be held back until the Chinese economy has become more dominant in the region.     

从中国-东盟自由贸易区构想看东亚经济合作

从2001年11月朱镕基总理倡议建立中国-东盟自由贸易区以来,东亚经济合作陡然升温.其实中国从提出东亚高峰会,到推动<清迈倡议>,再到中国-东盟自由贸易区框架,已隐现东亚合作带有以中国崛起为背景的现实需求.东亚正在努力探寻一条纽带,一条能将东亚散落的珍珠串起来的纽带.     

Intra-regional trade and business cycles in Southeast Asia

Conclusion In this note we considered the relationship between trade integration and the cross-country correlation of business cycle activity in southeast Asia. We found a positive and significant relationship between the degree of bilateral trade intensity and the cross-country bilateral correlation of business activity over the period 1986–1996, a period when trade integration was proceeding rapidly. Thus, the Frankel and Rose (1997) finding that more trade integration between industrialized countries tends to result in more highly synchronized business cycles, appears to be robust to a sample of countries which have diverse income levels and economic structures and are likely to have less bilateral intraindustry trade.     

Industry Policy in East Asia

This survey examines the role of industry policy in the industrialisation of East Asian economies since the early 1980s. The first section outlines the neoclassical' model and the interventionist literature that has arisen to challenge it. It distinguishes three strands in this literature: the 'structuralist' and the 'strategic' trade models and the 'fair trade' argument. The following sections evaluate the empirical evidence for Northeast and Southeast Asian economies, discuss the analytical and empirical validity of the interventionist literature and in conclusion draw attention to the diminished relevance of industry policy, given the rapid market-driven integration taking place in the Asian-Pacific region.     

东亚货币合作的阶段确定与形态选择

东亚金融危机表明东亚进行货和由合作迫在眉睫,而欧洲货币一体化的成功为东亚货币合作提供了范例。在东亚货币合作的诸多问题中,关键的问题是确定目前货币合作的阶段和形态。本文就若干货币合作的条件指标,对东来地区目前的水平与西欧国家1979年的水平进行了比较,结论是,东亚货币合作目前只能在第一个阶段－准备阶段运作,建立真正的、有制度框架保障的、以汇率目标区为主体的货币合作体系的基本条件尚不具备。然后,文章就当前阶段货币合作的形态选择进行了深入的研究,指出,在货币合作初期,对称性的贷币合作比较合适。