Life cycle and bequest savings A study of Japanese and U.S. households based on data from the 1984 NSFIE and the 1983 survey of consumer finances

This paper investigates whether the elderly save or dissave in light of two newly available sets of cross-section micro data, the 1983 “Survey of Consumer Finance” for the United States and the 1984 “National Survey of Family Income and Expenditure” for Japan. Contrary to dominant earlier findings we find for the United States that families after retirement dissave on average about a third of their peak wealth by the time of death, leaving the rest (mostly their homes) as bequests. For Japan, special handling is made to eliminate possible sample selection bias due to the different economic characteristics of the elderly forming independent households and those living with children. We find that the elderly belonging to both groups continue to save, and moreover, there appear to be significant signs of ongoing wealth transfer between the generations. The data in both countries also show that the elasticity of saving with respect to a life time income measure is significantly greater than unity, and more strongly so within higher age groups. J. Japan. Int. Econ., December 1988, 2(4), pp. 450–491. Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania, Philadelphia, PA 19104-6297, and National Bureau of Economic Research.     

Retirement Saving in Japan: With Emphasis on the Impact of Social Security and Retirement Payments

In this paper, we apply Kazuo Sato's target wealth hypothesis to saving for life after retirement and analyze the impact of social security wealth, retirement payments, permanent income, and other factors on people's retirement saving using micro data from the Survey of Social Security and Self Help, which was conducted in 1996 by the Japan Institute of Life Insurance. Our findings provide strong confirmation of the target wealth hypothesis and of the life cycle model and imply that the Japanese take account of their future social security benefits and retirement payments, their permanent income, etc., when saving for life after retirement. J. Japan. Int. Econ., June 2001, 15(2), pp. 131–159. Graduate School of Economics, and Institute of Social and Economic Research, Osaka University, 6-1, Mihogaoka, Ibaraki, Osaka, 567-0047, Japan. Copyright 2001 Academic Press.Journal of Economic Literature Classification Numbers: D12, D91, E21, H55.     

日本储蓄率的变动及对中国的启示

日本曾经是世界储蓄率最高的国家之一,但从20世纪90年代开始,日本储蓄率发生了显著变化,呈下降趋势。日本储蓄率的变动不但会影响本国经济,还将影响世界经济。通过储蓄理论与最新经济数据分析得出日本储蓄率变动的最主要因素是:收入因素、人口因素及社会保障因素。研究日本储蓄率变动对中国调整高储蓄率有一些有益的启示。     

Consumption Behavior,Annuity Income and Mortality Risk of Retirees

Previous empirical studies have found that individuals do not draw down their assets after retirement which is at odds with the predictions of a simple life cycle model without uncertainty. Hurd (Econometrica 57(4):779–813, 1989; Mortality risk and consumption by couples, 1999) explains such saving behavior of retired singles and couples by adding lifetime uncertainty to the simple life cycle model. We tested whether predictions about consumption during retirement of this extended life cycle model hold for a sample of older Americans. We used data from the Health and Retirement Study supplemented with data from the Consumption and Activities Mail Survey. In line with theory we found that, on average, total consumption is greater than their annuity income after retirement and that this difference increases with the level of initial wealth. For older singles but not for couples our results suggest that, as predicted by the extended theoretical model of Hurd, the on average negative consumption growth decreases with higher mortality rates.     

A new anatomy of the retirement process in Japan

In Japan, retirement is a gradual process that transpires over a particularly long period of time. Using large scale micro-level datasets from the Survey of Employment of the Elderly compiled by the Japanese government, we provide some stylized facts on the development of retirement behavior since the 1980s and explore factors affecting the individual retirement decision. First, we observed a general declining trend in the proportion of retired individuals aged 55–59 (especially females) while the proportion of retired individuals aged 65–69 (especially males) increased. Second, the survival analysis on actual retirement age shows that those who are more educated are more likely to retire earlier and those who experienced mandatory retirement are less likely. Third, the survival analysis on the expected retirement age shows that individuals who are satisfied with their job in terms of nonmonetary rewards are less likely to retire earlier.     

Changes in Japanese household consumption and saving behavior before,during and after the Bubble era: empirical analysis using NSFIE micro-data sets

This paper seeks to clarify changes in the Japanese household behavior in the 1980s and 1990s through empirical investigation of available data on consumption and saving using the micro-data sets of the National Survey of Family Income and Expenditure. Our findings are as follows: First, household consumption was stable even during the Bubble period. Second, “bubbly” consumption in the Bubble era was due to consumption relying on corporate expense accounts. And, third, the saving behavior of households changed significantly after the Bubble burst and asset prices imploded. This is indicated by the change in the coefficient of assets in the saving function.     

Unemployment risk and buffer-stock saving: An empirical investigation in Japan

The purpose of this paper is to investigate, using micro data, the strength in Japan of the precautionary saving motive. While numerical simulations suggest the economic importance of precautionary saving, the empirical evidence is mixed. In this paper, we apply the buffer-stock saving model and focus on the effect of unemployment risk on wealth accumulation. We find that uncertainty has a positive and statistically significant effect on the wealth-to-income ratio, and that buffer-stock savings account for 6 or 15 percent of net financial assets. Housing loans and expenditures associated with children decrease this ratio.     

空气污染感知与退休后再就业意愿——来自CLDS2016的证据

具有再就业能力和意愿的退休群体是有待激活和妥善配置的潜在人力资源,对于实现积极老龄化、缓解社会养老负担均有重要意义,而对于空气污染的感知和担忧可能是阻止该群体重返劳动力市场的重要致因。基于CLDS2016调查数据,研究证实了空气污染感知对退休群体再就业意愿的抑制作用,而城市层面的空气质量降级现象佐证了这一结论。此外,具有较高物质资本和人力资本存量的退休群体的主客观空气污染偏离度较低,即更易低估环境污染现状并保持乐观。然而,互联网的使用将导致对空气污染现状的普遍高估,并使偏离程度加重。本研究着重探讨了空气污染在感知端对于劳动供给行为的重要影响,为洞悉阻碍退休群体再就业因素提供了来自环境质量方面的证据。     

The contribution of increased life expectancy to economic development in twentieth century Japan

This paper estimates the value of improved health in Japan over the twentieth century. By valuing the decline in the death rate and appending this to existing measures of GDP per capita it is possible to calculate health augmented GDP per capita growth and generate original results about the monetary value of improved life expectancy over the twentieth century in Japan. The findings of the paper indicate that this is a pertinent exercise because GDP per capita growth approximately doubles when it is extended to include increases in the life expectancy of the population of Japan. These results also provide a justification for the increase in health care service spending that was evident at the close of the twentieth century.     

The effects of Japanese social security retirement benefits on personal saving and elderly labor force behavior

Japanese annual time-series data covering the period 1951 to 1982 reveals that changes in the program of social security retirement benefits have substantial influence on personal saving and retirement behavior. The empirical results show that social security retirement benefits depress personal saving by approximately 13,500 yen per capita in real terms from 1951 to 1982. However, declining labor force participation of the elderly (i.e., earlier retirement) stimulates personal saving by an estimate 500 yen over the same period. The study finds that the benefit effect dominates the retirement effect. The net effect is consequently a downward impact on personal saving. The parameter estimates indicate that the retirement behavior induced by social security retirement benefits tends to become more sensitive and responsive to a rise in the benefits. In addition, this study has identified a negative interdependency between the personal saving and labor retirement behaviors; that is, an individual saves more before retirement if he expects to stay a shorter time in the labor market, and vice versa. Moreover, personal saving influenced by retirement behavior tends to become less and less responsive, though the results indicate a relatively large response, and although very small, the retirement behavior gradually becomes more responsive to changes in personal saving.     

Saving,productivity and national income: a discrete-time geometric framework

This paper proposes an alternative geometric framework for analysing the inter-relationship between domestic saving, productivity and income determination in discrete time. The framework provides a means of understanding how low saving economies like the United States sustained high growth rates in the 1990s whereas high saving Japan did not. It also illustrates how the causality between saving and economic activity runs both ways and that discrete changes in national output and income depend on both current and previous accumulation behaviour. The open economy analogue reveals how international capital movements can create external account imbalances that enhance income growth for both borrower and lender economies.     

The relationship between saving and investment for Japan

In this paper, we revisit the saving and investment nexus as postulated by Feldstein and Horioka (FH) [Econ. J. 90 (1980) 314]. We test for cointegration between saving and investment using the recently developed bounds testing approach to cointegration and derive the long-run elasticities using the autoregressive distributed lag modeling approach for Japan over the period 1960–1999. We establish the unit root properties of the data in the presence of structural break(s) using the Zivot and Andrews (ZA) [J. Business Econ. Stat. 10 (1992) 251] and the Lumsdaine and Papell (LP) [Rev. Econ. Stat. 79 (1997) 212] tests. Finally, we ascertain the direction of causation between saving and investment by using the bootstrap approach. Amongst our key results we find that saving and investment are cointegrated for Japan; investment causes saving and saving causes investment; shocks to saving and investment have a permanent effect; and the long-run coefficient on saving is 0.68, implying a moderate rate of correlation. From the latter finding, we believe that there is no puzzle between saving and investment in the case of Japan, a result contrary to FH (1980).     

Revaluation of the Chinese Yuan and triad trade: A gravity assessment

The literature had paid little attention to the endogenous nexus between exchange rates and bilateral trade. In this paper, I use a gravity model to investigate the two-way causality between exchange rates and bilateral trade with data from China, Japan, and the United States during the 2002–2007 period. After controlling for the simultaneous bias between exchange rates and bilateral trade, the extensive empirical evidence shows that the revaluation of the Chinese Yuan against the dollar significantly reduced China's exports to the United States but had no significant effects on China's exports to Japan. These findings are robust to different measures, econometric methods, and period coverage.     

Stock repurchases in Japan: A solution to excessive corporate saving?

Since the 1990 s profitable Japanese companies have faced lower domestic growth opportunities; they have invested less, yet most have not increased their payout. This has resulted in a substantial deleveraging of their balance sheets. The popular term for this phenomenon is “corporate saving.” Corporate saving by Japanese companies is now at the highest level in history. Dividends and stock repurchases are two potential ways to resolve excessive corporate saving. Stock repurchases in particular offer a fast, flexible and very public method to solve the problem of excessive corporate savings. This research is an investigation of stock repurchases by Japanese companies from 2000 to 2009. Companies repurchase their stock to return excess cash to investors, resolve governance issues, adjust capital structure and send signals. This paper uses accounting and stock market information to explain this behavior. Contrary to recent research on American firms, we find that replacement of dividends does not appear to explain stock repurchase behavior in Japan. We find evidence that repurchase behavior in Japan is linked to excessive corporate savings. However, repurchases are also closely linked to the ownership structure of the firm. Firms whose dominant owners are other members of the firm's industrial group are less likely to repurchase. Bank ownership has mixed implications for repurchases. Firms having foreign and individual ownership are more likely to repurchase stock. Foreign and individual ownership appears to improve governance and thus may be a partial solution to excessive corporate savings.     

A cohort analysis of male labor supply in Japan

This study uses repeated cross-sectional data from 1982 to 2007 to understand labor force behavior of men in Japan, focusing on the increase in non-regular employment. I find that regular employment fell significantly for recent cohorts of less-educated men. Regular employment of single men and less-educated married men responded more to the business cycle than did regular employment of highly educated married men. Cohorts who finished their schooling in the late 1990s and early 2000s experienced a severe decline in regular employment at young ages, although this phenomenon was mainly observed among single men and not among married men.     

Smoking and wage rates – Evidence from Japanese panel data

This paper analyzes smoking behavior and its effects on wage rate. It is widely known that smoking has negative health effects and to discourage the practice, governments frequently implement policies such as tax increases and restrictions on public smoking. To evaluate these policies, it is necessary to understand the economic benefits and costs of reducing the number of smokers. We conduct a panel data analysis while controlling for unobserved heterogeneity and show that smoking is not the main factor causing observed wage differentials between smokers and non-smokers in Japan.As for the relationship between smoking and wages, we find that male smokers receive lower hourly wages than male nonsmokers. Smoking behavior generally depends on environmental, congenital, or social factors. These factors, however, do not only affect smoking behavior but also the wages of these individuals. To isolate the effect of smoking on wages, we control for individual heterogeneity using panel data to verify the existence of such an effect.Using tax change as an instrumental variable in the fixed effects model and several robustness checks, the results show that smoking has no statistically significant effect on wage rate. This suggests that smoking does not directly affect wages; rather, unobserved individual heterogeneity (other factors influencing both smoking and wages) leads to wage differences between smokers and nonsmokers. Nevertheless, smoking can affect wages in the long run through health problems. The nine-year panel data used in this research, however, is insufficient to capture the long-term indirect health effects. Thus, future research should consider analyzing indirect health effects using panel data spread across a wider time frame.     

中日合作发展低碳经济的双赢效果分析

以"节能环保"为特征的"低碳经济"领域是中日经济关系中最能体现互利和互补性的领域之一.中方拥有广阔的市场资源,日方拥有资金、技术和管理优势.双方合作将发挥要素禀赋的互补优势,增加企业利润,提高社会整体福利水平,进而增进地区收益.低碳产品的外部性,要求在中日合作过程中,协调两国经贸政策,实施政策激励,促进低碳产品的生产、...     

Epidemic and Economic Consequences of Voluntary and Request-based Lockdowns in Japan

I examine the epidemiological and economic effects of two types of lockdowns during the COVID-19 pandemic in Japan: a voluntary lockdown by which people voluntarily stayed at home in response to the risk of infection, and a request-based lockdown by which the government requested people to stay at home without legal enforcements. I use empirical evidence on these two types of lockdowns to extend an epidemiological and economic model: the SIR-Macro model. I calibrate this extended model to Japanese data and conduct some numerical experiments. The results show that the interaction of these two types of lockdowns plays an important role in the low proportion of infectious individuals and the large decrease in consumption in Japan.     

Saving for retirement: The U.S. case

This paper discusses the personal saving behavior and the retirement behavior of households in the United States. It shows that a typical U.S. household owns virtually no financial savings even at ages approaching retirement. Most personal saving is in the form of housing equity, which, however, is not decumulated during retirement and thus cannot be counted on as retirement wealth. Saving for retirement is largely conducted by corporations and government through pension plans and Social Security. It also presents evidence indicating a relatively large impact on the Individual Retirement Account program on personal savings. The paper casts doubts on the applicability of the pure life-cycle saving hypothesis for the U.S. households. J. Japan. Int. Econ., December 1988, 2(4), pp. 385–416. Kennedy School of Government, Harvard University, Cambridge, Massachusetts 02138; and National Bureau of Economic Research, Cambridge, Massachusetts 02138.