Financial overconfidence over time: Foresight,hindsight, and insight of investors

Financial overconfidence leads to increased trading activity, higher risk taking, and less diversification. In a panel survey of online brokerage clients in the UK, we ask for stock market and portfolio expectations and derive several overconfidence measures from the responses. Overconfidence is identified in the sample in various forms. By matching survey data with participants’ transactions and portfolio holdings, we find an influence of overplacement on trading activity, of overprecision and overestimation on diversification, and of overprecision and overplacement on risk taking. We explore the evolution of overconfidence over time and identify a role of past success and hindsight on subsequent investor overconfidence in line with learning to be overconfident.     

Reference point formation by market investors

The disposition effect [Shefrin, H., Statman M., 1985, The disposition to sell winners too early and ride losers too long. Journal of Finance, 40, 777–790], investors’ tendency to sell gaining assets and hold on to loosing assets, relies on the notion of a reference point distinguishing between losses and gains. While literature using aggregated market data documented the existence of such a reference point affecting investors’ decisions, it had not pinpointed it. The main goal of our work is to shed light on the mechanism of reference point formation. We hypothesize that salient events taking place during a stock’s holding period influence investors’ perceptions and make them update the stock’s reference point. Using analysts’ earnings forecasts, stock price data, and firms’ quarterly earnings announcements, we document that company-specific events indeed affect the reference points. We discover that the earnings announcements played a role in reference point formation when they were not anticipated, i.e., when (i) analysts’ earnings forecasts failed to provide accurate predictions; and (ii) the earnings announcements were followed by market price reactions. Moreover, the reference points were affected more profoundly for low market capitalization, high beta firms, pointing that the reference point updating process is more reactive to events when information flow is low and prices are sensitive to market fluctuations. Our results also corroborate the attention hypothesis, i.e., the observation that agents facing numerous alternatives may consider primarily those that have caught their attention.     

Capital market equilibrium with heterogeneous investors

As a two-parameter model that satisfies stochastic dominance, the mean-extended Gini model is used to build efficient portfolios. The model quantifies risk aversion heterogeneity in capital markets. In a simple Edgeworth box framework, we show how capital market equilibrium is achieved for risky assets. This approach provides a richer basis for analysing the pricing of risky assets under heterogeneous preferences. Our main results are: (1) identical investors, who use the same statistic to represent risk, hold identical portfolios of risky assets equal to the market portfolio; and (2) heterogeneous investors as expressed by the variance or the extended Gini hold different risky assets in portfolios, and therefore no one holds the market portfolio.     

资本市场要保护投资人利益

全国政协委员、国家开发银行顾问刘克崮建议：完善和切实履行分红政策,综合运用税费手段,促进资本市场从投机市场向投资市场转变。全国政协委员、香港南华集团有限公司董事局主席张赛娥呼吁：改善证券市场的生存土壤,重建合理的市场利益分配,让各市场参与者能处身于公正、公平及公开的环境中     

Granular institutional investors and global market interdependence

We study the propagation of global investment risk across markets through the granular view of institutional investors. Applying the conditional value-at-risk estimation to micro-level weekly observations of international mutual funds between 2003 and 2011, we find that idiosyncratic shocks to large institutional investors explain both aggregate market risk and cross-market risk interdependence. Conditional on the US capital markets being in financial distress, idiosyncratic shocks to the top 10% largest funds investing in the US explain about 40% of the risk fluctuations in other non-US markets. The findings are also economically and statistically significant for the top largest funds investing in non-US markets, with the effects becoming especially large during the global financial crisis of 2007–09. These results are robust after controlling for common risk factors and applying alternative measures of idiosyncratic shocks.     

The intraday behavior of information misreaction across various categories of investors in the Taiwan options market

This study adopts a unique dataset that includes the complete history of transactions in the Taiwan options market to investigate the misreaction patterns for marketwise observations and the transactions of four different categories of investors in the high-frequency framework. Using the results from model-free tests as benchmarks, we find that model-based tests incorrectly indicate the existence of investor misreaction and show the differences of misreaction degree among investor categories. Our findings are robust to alternative observation frequencies and duration definitions.     

中国股市散户生存哲学

火狐清澈:摘自SOHU财经论坛我从不对大盘的高度做无谓的预测。因为,正如业内人士所说的那样:大多数投资者总是“赚了指数赔了钱”。的确,我们的市况已经发展到了这样的一种境地:即便大盘指数上涨,我们的股票完全可能原地踏步或朝反方向运动,这让我们如何欢呼起来呢?在股票市场徜徉了几年后,毫不客气地说,我早已看透了其中的道道,并且在这个与     

Stock market expectations and risk aversion of individual investors

We study the relationship between stock market return expectations and risk aversion of individuals and test whether the joint effects arising from the interaction of these two variables affect investment decisions. Using data from the Dutch National Bank Household Survey, we find that higher risk aversion is associated with lower stock market expectations. We identify significant and negative effects on the probability that individuals invest in stocks arising from the interaction between stock market expectations and risk aversion. These effects are in addition to a significant and positive impact from stock market return expectations as well as a significant and negative effect from risk aversion separately. However, once individuals participate in the stock market, their stock market expectations alone remain significant in determining their portfolio allocation decisions.     

积极培育中国股市的机构投资者

上市公司和机构投资者是证券市场的两大主体。培育机构投资者,加大机构投资者比重对改善投资主体结构和运行环境,提高市场的整个质量和长期可持续发展能力,加快证券市场的市场化进程有着深远意义。     

Individual investors repurchasing behaviour: evidence from the Portuguese stock market

We study the repurchasing behaviour of individual investors and identify-related stock- and investor-specific attributes that affect the preference to repurchase stocks previously owned. Using a unique database of Portuguese individual investors, we find that investors prefer to repurchase stocks that were associated with a gain during their previous roundtrip (i.e. prior winners) and have suffered price declines subsequent to their last sale. Consistent with the extant literature based on the US market, our results suggest that different market characteristics do not seem to affect investors’ preference regarding stock repurchases. Moreover, we find that this preference increases with the magnitude of the prior gain or the decline in price following the last sale. We also demonstrate that larger and more visible domestic stocks are more likely to be repurchased and that less active, under-diversified and home-biased investors are more likely to engage in such behaviour. Finally, we find that repurchased stocks yield poor post-performance – approximately 267 basis points less than newly purchased stocks. Our main conclusion is that repurchases are essentially emotionally driven and penalize investor’s performance.     

The demand effect of yield-chasing retail investors: Evidence from the Chinese enterprise bond market

Enterprise bonds with higher demand of retail investors are traded at significantly higher prices in the exchange market than the same bonds traded by institutional investors in the interbank market in China. The price difference is higher for bonds with higher yield to maturity, lower supply, and higher demand exposure to retail investors. Our results suggest that risky bonds can be priced significantly higher due to the demand of yield-chasing investors and a sudden negative demand shock can generate a sharp decrease in bond values. The demand and supply effects are stronger for bonds with higher duration due to the limited risk-sharing capacity of risk-averse arbitrageurs.     

Inter-temporal examination of the trading activities of foreign investors in the Korean stock market

In the full market-opening period of the Korean stock market (1999–2006), when foreign equity ownership reached as high as 40% of the total stock market capitalization, foreign net flows move in the same direction contemporaneously with the domestic market return, while lagged foreign flows are not followed by any significant changes in the domestic market return. On the other hand, an increase (decrease) in foreign net buy is followed by Won appreciation (depreciation) relative to the US dollar; however, the reverse relation does not hold. Throughout the entire sample period (1995–2006), foreign flows are not significantly related to stock market return volatility.     

Flight-to-liquidity,market uncertainty,and the actions of mutual fund investors

We explore the trading decisions of equity mutual funds during ten periods of extreme market uncertainty. We find that mutual funds reduced their aggregate holdings of illiquid stocks. Exploring the drivers behind this result reveals that this is mainly driven by larger withdrawals from funds that hold less liquid stocks. We further find that the sell-off of illiquid stocks occurred only after initial deterioration in market conditions, consistent with retail investors’ response to bad performance. At a broader level, this shows that mutual funds consumed liquidity during periods where liquidity was most valuable. Moreover, the fact that fund managers traded in response to these withdrawals suggests a potentially magnifying channel for the drop in illiquid stock prices, also known as flight-to-liquidity.     

Underwriter reputation and IPO underpricing: The role of institutional investors in the Chinese growth enterprise market

This paper investigates the effects of underwriter reputation on initial public offering (IPO) underpricing in the Chinese Growth Enterprise Market, in light of the conflicting evidence in the literature on IPO underpricing. Using data during the post global financial crisis period, we find that IPO firms with prestigious underwriters have lower market-adjusted initial returns on average. We further find that prestigious underwriters reduce IPO underpricing by minimizing the time gap between the offering and listing, choosing high-quality firms to underwrite, and reducing information asymmetry between issuers and investors. In the presence of institutional investors, however, we find that more underpricing occurs, as these investors tend to obtain access to IPO shares at a higher price discount via private placements. This new finding suggests that the institutional investors have a role to play in the case of high under-pricing, which partly gets corrected via underwriter reputation.     

Local investors,price discovery,and market efficiency

This study examines the effect of locally informed investors on market efficiency and stock prices using large power outages, which are exogenous events that constrain trading. Turnover in stocks headquartered in an outage area with 0.5% of U.S. electrical customers drops by 3–7% on the first full day of the outage, and bid–ask spreads narrow by 2.5%. Firm-specific price volatility is 2.3% lower on blackout dates. This effect is larger for smaller, lesser-known stocks and in higher income areas. Consistent with a valuation discount and higher expected returns for stocks with more informed traders, firms with a one-standard-deviation higher local trading propensity have market-to-book values that are 5% lower, Tobin's Q that is 6% lower, annualized four-factor alphas that are 1.2% higher, and average spreads that are 6.5% higher. Together, the evidence suggests that informed investors contribute disproportionately to both liquidity and price discovery, and that these contributions are reflected in valuations and expected returns.     

The cost of overconfidence in public information

We investigate the effects of investor overconfidence in public information on cross-sectional asset returns. The results show that investors in the US equity market are overconfident about public signals for mature firms that are relatively easy to price—old, large, and dividend-paying firms, value firms, and firms with a higher proportion of tangible assets, little external financing, and low sales growth. However, the effects of the overconfidence on cross-sectional stock returns are reversed quickly and comprise more than half of the short-term return reversals. The risk-adjusted cost of being overconfident about the noisy public signals, measured by return reversals of hedge portfolios formed on unexpected responses, is over 1.1% per month in the first month after portfolio formation, and is still significant despite the active arbitrage trading in the 2000s.     

Loss sensitive investors and positively biased analysts in Hong Kong stock market

Review of Quantitative Finance and Accounting - The Hong Kong stock market is known to be highly volatile. Professional investors have a strong demand for timely information because of the...     

Behavioral spillover between firms with shared auditors: The monitoring role of capital market investors

This paper examines the monitoring role of investors in the behavioral spillover between firms with shared auditors. Our context involves firms receiving U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission comment letters on issues relating to the recognition of revenue, gains, or losses (RRGL) in their 10-K filings and subsequently engaging in a higher degree of accounting conservatism. Investors of firms who did not receive a comment letter but share auditors with RRGL comment letter recipients react adversely to the release of these comment letters. Through the threat of downward stock price pressure on the value of Chief Financial Officers' equity compensation, investors induce the nonrecipients to also engage in a higher degree of accounting conservatism. When exposed to higher reputation and litigation risks, the shared auditors further contribute to the behavioral spillover between their clients by acting as informational intermediaries.     

Overreaction to stock market news and misevaluation of stock prices by unsophisticated investors: Evidence from the option market

This paper examines investors' option activity on value and growth stocks before earnings announcements. The main finding is that unsophisticated investors enter option positions that load up on growth stocks relative to value stocks in the days leading up to earnings announcements. This occurs despite the fact that at earnings announcements value stocks outperform growth stocks by a wide margin. The paper's results provide evidence that unsophisticated option market investors (1) overreact to past news on underlying stocks and (2) mistakenly believe that mispriced stocks will move even further away from fundamentals at impending scheduled news releases.     

The effect of overconfidence on insurance demand

The Geneva Risk and Insurance Review - Sandroni and Squintani (Am Econ Rev 97(5):1994–2004, 2007) argue that in the presence of overconfident agents, the findings of Rothschild and Stiglitz...