Duration dependence of the business cycle in Japan: A Bayesian analysis of extended Markov switching model

For the purpose of analyzing cyclical stochastic processes in business cycles, we propose a regime-switching model with duration dependence that makes use of the Weibull model. The advantage of this model is that it relaxes a constraint of the Markov-switching model in favor of time-varying transition probabilities, and investigates the property of duration dependence in business states. We employ Bayesian inference via MCMC to overcome the drawbacks of maximum likelihood estimation. Estimation using the composite index of coincident indicator shows that both the contractions and the expansions of the Japanese business cycle exhibited positive duration dependence during the last two decades.     

Bayesian analysis of a Markov switching temporal cointegration model

This paper introduces a Bayesian approach to a Markov switching cointegration model that allows the cointegration relationships to be switched on and off depending on the regime. Unlike a classical method for nonlinear cointegration model that uses the cointegrating vector based on a linear cointegration model, the proposed Bayesian method allows for estimation of the cointegrating vector within a nonlinear framework conditional on the regime variables through the Gibbs sampling so that it generates more reliable estimation. The Bayes factors are applied to test for Markov switching and model specifications. The purchasing power parity (PPP) relationship between UK and US is investigated using the proposed model for illustration.     

Capital controls and covered interest parity in the EU: Evidence from a panel-data unit root test

Capital Controls and Covered Interest Parity in the EU: Evidence from a Panel-Data Unit Root Test. - This paper examines whether the abolition of the remaining capital controls in the EU during 1990 has facilitated the achievement of onshore covered interest parity with respect to Germany. We test for unit roots in covered interest differentials. However, we employ the new methodology of pooling our data and performing a unit root test based on a panel data set. Our results suggest that the period characterized by the absence of capital controls has not facilitated the achievement of covered interest parity. Indeed, evidence in favour of covered interest parity is strongest for the period preceding 1990.     

The political economy of US policy on LDC debt relief: Executive-legislative relations, 1977–1980

This paper studies the evolution of US policy on LDC dept relief in the context of Executive-Legislative branch relations in the US government. After introducing the political economy of the dept relief issue in general terms of the North-South dialogue, the author traces the origins and the progress of an amendment intended to provide for Retroactive Terms Adjustment (RTA) as a part of the US aid package for the ‘relatively least developed countries’ (RLDCS). He studies the evolution of US policy in the Treasury and State Departments and in the various Congressional committees which are responsible for formulating the final legislation. The author analyses the bureaucratic and political/economic interactions which affected the outcome and concludes that no single paradigm appears relevant to the full range of US international economic policy-making. He indicates that further study is required to fully understand the policy-making process.     

Uncertainty in foreign policy making: A Bayesian game analysis of Korea

Bayesian games are used to analyze situations where at least one player is uncertain about the other's preferences. For the past decade or so, the Bayesian models have been rigorously applied to various aspects of international relations involving uncertainty. These models have contributed to our understanding of international relations by uncovering complicated strategic interactions through deductive reasoning and by generating many empirically testable hypotheses. Apart from these efforts for general theory developments, however, scholars rarely applied Bayesian models to analyze real‐world international events, although many of them involve situations where one or more players are uncertain about the other's preferences. Some of these events are interesting and important in their own right, given their potential impact on regional security and the amount of attention paid by scholars and politicians alike. Therefore, these cases warrant independent studies utilizing Bayesian models. In this paper, we have developed two Bayesian models for the changing relationships North Korea has with South Korea and the United States. We also discuss another interesting aspect of North‐South Korea‐United States relations where North Korea is simultaneously playing similar, but separate, games with South Korea and the United States.     

The macroeconomic impacts of government debt: An empirical analysis of the 1980s and 1990s

This study examines the macroeconomic impacts of government debt. Unlike previous studies, the current study restricts the estimation period to the 1980s and 1990s. The analysis is conducted using variance decompositions and impulse response functions derived from a vector autoregressive model. The results presented here support an extreme form of the Ricardian equivalence hypothesis. In this view, wealth falls as government debt rises. Because wealth falls as government debt rises, an increase in government debt leads to decreases in interest rates, output, and the price level.This work was supported by a grant from the Faculty Research and Creative Activities Support Fund of Western Michigan University. The author wishes to thank Nancy S. Barrett, James S. Fackler, W. Douglas McMillin, Susan Pozo, and Paul D. Thistle for comments and suggestions.     

Duplication without constraints: Álvarez‐Nogal and Chamley's analysis of debt policy under Philip II

Carlos Álvarez‐Nogal and Christophe Chamley recently published an article in the Economic History Review on ‘Debt policy under constraints: Philip II, the Cortes, and Genoese bankers’. In this note, we show that several claims in their article are very similar to earlier research results, published or circulated long before Álvarez‐Nogal and Chamley's original submission, by ourselves and other scholars (section I). These results are repeated without attribution or even mention of the earlier work. In addition, we show that what Álvarez‐Nogal and Chamley present as new quantitative insights are actually replications of earlier results of ours (section II). Finally, Álvarez‐Nogal and Chamley misrepresent our contributions, as well as those of several other scholars (section III).     

'Don't owe,won't pay!': A critical analysis of the Jubilee SA position on South African government debt

Jubilee 2000 (SA) supports the cancellation of South African national government (and other) debt on the grounds that it is odious debt from the apartheid years. The organisation has called for foreign creditors to cancel the debt voluntarily and has threatened to call for debt repudiation if such cancellation is not forthcoming. However, unlike voluntary debt cancellation, debt repudiation would probably have serious consequences for investment and growth. Furthermore, as most government debt has accumulated after the end of apartheid, and as most is domestic and marketable, the moral argument for repudiation is problematic. Jubilee 2000 (SA) is also calling for the government pension scheme (which owns a large proportion of the domestic government debt) to be restructured. Contributions to the pension fund may be excessive (as argued by Jubilee 2000), but the case is not clear. South Africa should publish a dual set of accounts in line with how other countries report their liabilities so as not to overstate the deficit in the eyes of investors.     

An investigation of the possible effects of nonsampling error on inference in auditing: A Bayesian analysis*

Abstract. A Bayesian model for nonsampling errors made by the auditor is investigated to determine the effects of such errors on audit inferences. Predictive distributions are used to illustrate that for “realistic” audit situations, Type II errors will have little effect on inferences for a given level of Type I error. Type I errors are shown to play a more critical role in determining the acceptability of an internal control. Résumé. Un modèle Bayesien relatif aux erreurs, de nature autre qu'échantillonnale, commises par le vérificateur est étudié afin de déterminer les effets de telles erreurs sur les inférences en vérification. Des distributions de prédiction sont employées pour illustrer le fait qu'en situation de vérification «réaliste», les erreurs de deuxième espèce auront peu d'effet sur les inférences pour un niveau donné d'erreur de première espèce. Il est montré que les erreurs de première espèce jouent un rôle plus critique en ce qui a trait à la détermination du caractère acceptable d'un procédé de contrôle interne.     

The determinants of export subsidiary formation by US transnationals in developing countries: An inter-industry analysis

This paper examines the inter-industry variation in US transnationals' propensity to invest in export-orientated manufacturing subsidiaries in less developed countries. The results obtained from the empirical analysis indicate that a significant proportion of the variation can be explained by industry characteristics, such as factor-intensity, research and development expenditure, and marketing requirements. This study draws attention to a number of data limitations, and suggests that further progress in this area of investigation will depend on the assembly of a more refined data base.     

Turnover tax and trading volume: Panel analysis of stocks traded in the Japanese and US markets

Japan eliminated turnover tax on stock trading through the end of the 1990’s to revitalize its ailing stock market by reducing the overall transaction cost for stock trading. This paper empirically examines the effect of this exogenous, institutional change in tax policy on stock trading volume in the Japanese market. To do so, we use panel data of stocks traded in both the Japanese and United States markets and compare changes in their trading volumes at the times of the tax changes. We use a well-established V-shape relationship between turnover and price change, with three different assumptions as regards how the price change relates to turnover across stocks and markets. Although a model allowing for both slope and intercept shifts does not offer any indications one way or the other, a more restricted model allowing only for an intercept shift clearly suggests a statistically significant increase in trading volume in the Japanese market but not in the United States markets for April 1999. However, such a result was not obtained for April 1996. These results indicate that the abolition of turnover tax in 1999, but not the rate reduction in 1996, contributed to the trading volume increase.     

The economic effects of the fair tax: analysis of results of a dynamic CGE model of the US economy

By replacing the current income tax with a national sales tax, the FairTax proposal would end the double taxation of saving inherent in the existing tax code and, by doing so, raise output, employment, investment and capital stock relative to the benchmark economy. While these positive effects would be felt almost immediately, the FairTax is very much an investment in the future. Its full benefits would be realized only after the economy achieved a new “steady state,” some 20–25 years into implementation. Only by that point, will the effects on growth have been fully absorbed into the economy and the wellbeing of most households across most income groups improved. The policy choice, then, is between the status quo, and a new policy that would inflict some short-run pain as the price of a permanently expanded economy.     

On the validity of the quadratic utility approach in mean-variance portfolio analysis: An empirical test

Summary This paper empirically compares the quadratic utility approach and the negative exponential utility approach within the framework of portfolio analysis. Estimates for the subjective variance-covariance matrix are obtained using the two models under consideration. The two approaches have been compared through these estimates and also by their forecasting ability. The quadratic utility approach appears to be inferior. This paper relies heavily on parts of my University of Essex Ph.D. thesis (Bhattacharyya, 1975). I am grateful to Professors Bergstrom and Parkin for their help, comments and encouragement. Mr. R. E. Bailey's help and advice is also gratefully acknowledged. In addition, the comments of the referee of this journal helped me to improve on my earlier draft. Any error remaining is mine.     

The effects of external trade,foreign resources,and domestic Policies on Domestic Savings in some developing Countries: a regression analysis

Summary This paper examines the impacts of some external and domestic factors on two measures of domestic savings (DS) in a sample of developing countries over the period 1980-82. No strong statistical evidence is found to support the hypothesis that external resources (i.e., official aid and borrowed capital) inhibit DS by substituting for them. On the other hand, favorable trade conditions (as represented by the rate of growth of the external terms of trade) are consistently found to be positively and significantly correlated with DS. These results are suggested to support the old slogan trade not aid, if it is interpreted to mean that aid should not be considered as an alternative to profitable trade opportunities.     

An empirical analysis of the gender earnings gap between the public and private sectors in Korea: A comparative study with the US

This paper conducts an empirical analysis of the gender earnings gap in the public and private sectors by comparing the cases in Korea with those in the US. Using comparable data sets by the Panel Study of Income Dynamics for the US and the Korean Income Panel Study for Korea, this study decomposes the gender earnings gap in order to identify the causal factors. One of the main factors attributable to a much lower gender earnings gap found in the Korean public sector is the self-selection by female workers with high levels of human capital who decide to enter the public sector. Another factor is the differing levels of efforts made by institutions, in areas such as wage structure, the enforcement of gender equality related laws, and the provision of paid family leave, which may affect differently the gender earnings gap in the public and private sector jobs. The empirical results of this study suggest that the differing levels of institutional efforts lower the gender earnings gap within the Korean public sector.