Women's employment transitions around child bearing

Women's increasing participation in the labor force since the 1950s demands that knowledge about their labor supply needs to keep pace with the changing world. One important change has occurred among mothers of small children, they are increasingly working for pay in successive generations, as the break in their employment has become increasingly shorter. Legislation was enacted in the UK to outlaw unequal pay and discrimination in employment on the basis of gender, while statutory maternity leave was introduced in 1976 and extended in 1986. The proportion of mothers taking maternity leave has since increased, as has full-time employment among mothers. The authors examine the transitions into and out of paid work which women make after childbirth, helping to determine whether recent generations of mothers have benefitted from the policy changes, whether all have benefitted equally, and whether any effects persist beyond the period around the first childbirth. Study data are drawn from the fifth sweep of the National Child Development Study (NCDS) 1958 birth cohort at age 33. The experiences of mothers in the 1958 generation suggests that women have begun to benefit from the equal opportunities provisions enacted in Britain during the 1970s. The age of the youngest child is the most important determinant of women's participation over the preschool years, and relatively better educated women have the highest degree of continuity in employment across childbirth.     

Is it a Timing or a Probability Effect? Four Simulations and an Application of Transition Rate Models to the Analysis of Unemployment Exit

Among the applications of event history analysis, in the last 10 years the lion's share has been played by proportional transition rate model. This type of models suffers from a major draw-back: it does not allow us to distinguish whether a covariate affects the event timing (the event occurs sooner/later) or the overall probability of the ultimate event occurrence (the chances of occurrence are constantly higher/lower). Thus, a positive/negative effect of a covariate found using a proportional transition rate model might reflect an acceleration/deceleration in the timing of the event and/or a high/low probability of the ultimate event occurrence (Yamaguchi, 1992). This paper shows how this problem can be reformulated in terms of the proportionality/non proportionality of the covariate effects. A twofold solution to disentangle the timing/probability problem is presented: this solution consists of a test of the proportionality of the covariate effects and a computation of the survival function at the end of the time interval studied. Two applications are discussed. The first one is based on four simulated processes. The second is based on an analysis of unemployment exit in Italy, with particular attention being paid to the effects of unemployment benefits. In the conclusion, implications for future applications of event history analysis are discussed.     

Effects of Care Leave and Family Social Policy: Spotlight on the United States

Consistent with Pope Francis's efforts to eradicate social exclusion, most countries in the world have already adopted care leave policies in an effort to reduce the conflict between being an employee and being a caregiver. Care leave policies allow workers time off for family or for self‐care. Historically, care leave policies such as maternity leave are viewed as an employee benefit akin to short‐term disability leave, providing job‐protected time off for new mothers. This study reviews the literature of the short‐ and long‐run economic and societal effects of care leave policies globally, with a specific focus on care leave policies in the United States. Care leave produces positive labor market and health outcomes, including increases in leave taking, improvement in replacement wages, improvements to profitability and employee morale, increases in female workforce participation and continuity, increases in birth weight, and decreases in infant mortality. Despite positive effects, labor market inequalities such as decreases in female labor market participation rates, gender wage gaps, and occupational segregation are often promoted by care leave policies. The conflicted findings in care leave research muddle the anticipated effects of paid care leave but allow room for alternative policy recommendations.     

The Sorting of Female Careers after First Birth: A Competing Risks Analysis of Maternity Leave Duration

A number of contributions have found evidence that motherhood is a critical life event for women's employment careers. This study presents a detailed analysis for the duration of maternity leave in which young mothers can make a transition into different types of employment, unemployment as well as the next birth. We provide a comprehensive picture of the sorting mechanisms that lead to the differentiation of women's employment careers after birth. Our empirical evidence is derived from large‐linked administrative individual labour market data from Germany for a period of three decades. We obtain unprecedented insights into how women's skills, the quality of the previous job match, firm level characteristics, labour market conditions and leave legislation are related to the length of maternity duration. Expansionary leave policies, e.g. are found to be a key factor for the rising share of women who have their second child out of inactivity.     

The effect of state maternity leave legislation and the 1993 Family and Medical Leave Act on employment and wages

In 1993, President Clinton signed the Family and Medical Leave Act (FMLA). Similar to the 12 states that already had maternity leave mandates, the FMLA guarantees 12 weeks of unpaid leave for eligible mothers. I evaluate the effects of maternity leave legislation on employment and wages, taking advantage of variation created by state legislation and the FMLA. My results show that maternity leave legislation has small and statistically insignificant effects on employment and wages. Maternity leave legislation may have little effect because the mandated leave is short and unpaid and many employers provided maternity leave benefits prior to the statutes.     

Factors influencing women's decision to leave an organization following childbirth

The purpose of this study was to understand the reasons why college-educated women leave organizations after childbirth. Results from 228 women who participated in a study of intention to work following childbirth indicated specific work and family factors that differentiated mothers who returned to work from mothers who stayed home after childbirth. Comparisons were also made between women who had a child and those who anticipated having a child. The findings are discussed in terms of their implications for organizational policy makers.     

CONDITIONAL DURATION MODELS FOR HIGH‐FREQUENCY DATA: A REVIEW ON RECENT DEVELOPMENTS

This paper reviews the recent literature on conditional duration modeling in high‐frequency finance. These conditional duration models are associated with the time interval between trades, price, and volume changes of stocks, traded in a financial market. An earlier review by Pacurar provides an exhaustive survey of the first and some of the second generation conditional duration models. We consider almost all of the third‐generation and some of the second‐generation conditional duration models. Notable applications of these models and related empirical studies are discussed. The paper may be seen as an extension to Pacurar.     

The effect of pregnancy Pilates-assisted childbirth preparation training on childbirth fear and neonatal outcomes: a quasi-experimental/quantitative research

This research aims to determine the effect pregnancy Pilates-assisted childbirth preparation training for primiparous women has on the fear of childbirth and neonatal outcomes. Fear of childbirth is very common among women and has negative effects on the birth process and neonatal outcomes. The study was designed as quasi-experimental/non-randomised/quantitative and prospective. Primiparous women presenting to the antenatal clinic of a hospital between 27.2.2015 and 01.03.2016 constituted the study population (reached 149 women). The study sample included 108 women, 54 of whom were in the experimental group and 54 of whom were in the control group. The sample had agreed to participate in the study and had met the sample criteria. In collecting the data, the Wijma Delivery Expectancy/Experience Questionnaire Version A, the birth outcomes data collection form were used. The data were analyzed using means calculation, Fisher’s Exact Test, Pearson’s Chi Square Test and T Test. The study found that the experimental group had a moderate level of childbirth fear prior to the training and a low level of childbirth fear following the training (p < 0.05). The study was determined that the experimental group, as compared to the control group, was positively affected by the training, in terms of childbirth fear, mode of the birth, planned or unplanned cesarean birth, the Apgar score and body weight of the newborn, and problems in the development of the newborn, the first contact time with newborn, and the first time breastfeeding (p < 0.05). The childbirth preparation program had a positive effect on fear of childbirth and neonatal outcomes.     

The Extended Generalized Gamma Model and its Special Cases: Applications to Modeling Marriage Durations

The paper demonstrates how various parametric models for duration data such as the exponential, Weibull, and log-normal may be embedded in a single framework, and how such competing models may be assessed relative to a more comprehensive one. To illustrate the issues addressed, the survival patterns of marriages among 1203 Swedish men born 1936–1964 are studied by parametric and non-parametric survival methods. In particular, we study the sensitivity of model-choice with respect to level of aggregation of the time variable; and of covariate-effects with respect to the model chosen. In accordance with previous works our empirical results indicate that the choice of a parametric model for the duration variable is affected by the level of time aggregation. In contrast to previous results, however, our analysis shows that estimates of covariate effects are not always robust to distributional assumptions for the duration variable.     

Health effects on labour market exits and entries

This paper analyses the role of health on exits out of and entries into employment using data from the first twelve waves of the British Household Panel Survey (1991–2002). We use discrete-time duration models to estimate the effect of health on the hazard of becoming non-employed and on the hazard of becoming employed. The results show that general health, measured by a variable that captures health limitations and by a constructed latent health index, affects entries into and exits out of employment; the effects being higher for men than for women. The results are robust to different definitions of employment, and to the exclusion of older workers from the analysis.     

Some cumulative logit models for panel-data analysis: an application to a dynamic analysis of personal efficacy

This paper introduces novel cumulative logit models for the panel-data analysis of transitions among ordered states of a polytomous dependent variable. The models differ from conventional cumulative logit models in that they can distinguish between covariate effects on the odds of having an upward transition and covariate effects on the odds of having a downward transition in the ordered states of the dependent variable. The new models are applied to panel data on personal efficacy and are used to identify asymmetric patterns in the effects of divorce and unemployment on changes in the level of personal efficacy. The effects of the two events on increasing the odds of having a downward transition are shown to be greater than their effects on decreasing the odds of having an upward transition. Some distinct characteristics of the effects of each event are also reported.     

Work and family practices in Japanese firms: their scope,nature and impact on employee turnover

Using firm-level data from Japan, this study examines the effects of four commonly used work and family practices on employee turnover: flextime, maternity leave, child care leave, and nursing care leave. Overall, we find statistically significant associations between work and family practices and female employee turnover in Japan. In stark contrast, we do not find such a statistically significant linkage between work and family practices and male employee turnover. As such, this study highlights the potential moderating effect of individual characteristics such as gender on the relationship between work and family practices and employee attitudes and behaviours.     

Discrete time duration models with group-level heterogeneity

Dynamic discrete choice panel data models have received a great deal of attention. In those models, the dynamics is usually handled by including the lagged outcome as an explanatory variable. In this paper we consider an alternative model in which the dynamics is handled by using the duration in the current state as a covariate. We propose estimators that allow for group-specific effect in parametric and semiparametric versions of the model. The proposed method is illustrated by an empirical analysis of job durations allowing for firm-level effects.     

Additive cubic spline regression with Dirichlet process mixture errors

The goal of this article is to develop a flexible Bayesian analysis of regression models for continuous and categorical outcomes. In the models we study, covariate (or regression) effects are modeled additively by cubic splines, and the error distribution (that of the latent outcomes in the case of categorical data) is modeled as a Dirichlet process mixture. We employ a relatively unexplored but attractive basis in which the spline coefficients are the unknown function ordinates at the knots. We exploit this feature to develop a proper prior distribution on the coefficients that involves the first and second differences of the ordinates, quantities about which one may have prior knowledge. We also discuss the problem of comparing models with different numbers of knots or different error distributions through marginal likelihoods and Bayes factors which are computed within the framework of Chib (1995) as extended to DPM models by Basu and Chib (2003). The techniques are illustrated with simulated and real data.     

Earnings dynamics in Canada: an econometric analysis

This paper reports the results of an empirical analysis of earnings dynamics in the Canadian labour market based on earnings data based drawn from tax returns between 1982 and 1994. Individuals' movements up and down quintiles of the earnings distribution are analysed using a hazard model approach. This represents one of the first studies for any country which models mobility across the entire distribution of earnings, including the middle and upper ranges as well as the lower ranges. The effects on transitions between quintiles are analyzed for the following variables: elapsed time spent in a given quintile (i.e., duration dependence effects), age, sex, geographical region, area size of residence, family status, language and overall macroeconomic conditions. One principal finding is that the conditional probability of transiting up or down the earnings distribution depends negatively on the elapsed time that an individual has spent in a given quintile. The earnings mobility patterns appear to be cyclical and exhibit some tendency of reversion to the mean, whereby the conditional probability of upward (downward) mobility is higher for those individuals presently situated in the lower (higher) quintiles.     

Analysis of Survival Data with Multiple Causes of Failure

The purpose of the paper is to compare results of estimation and inference concerning covariate effects as obtained from two approaches to the analysis of survival data with multiple causes of failure. The first approach involves a dynamic model for the cause-specific hazard rate. The second is based on a static logistic regression model for the conditional probability of having had an event of interest. The influence of sociodemographic characteristics on the rate of family initiation and, more importantly, on the choice between marriage and cohabitation as a first union, is examined. We found that results, generally, are similar across the methods considered. Some issues in relation to censoring mechanisms and independence among causes of failure are discussed.     

The Effects of UI Benefits on Unemployment and Subsequent Outcomes: Evidence from a Kinked Benefit Rule

This paper analyses the effects of unemployment insurance benefits on unemployment exits and subsequent labour market outcomes. We exploit a piecewise linear relationship between the previous wage and benefits in Finland to identify the causal effects of the benefit level by using a regression kink design. Although we only find weak evidence of an effect on the time to the next job, higher benefits decrease the time spent in part-time unemployment and thus result in more full-time unemployment. The re-employment probability and post-unemployment wage are also negatively affected. The results for the duration of the first post-unemployment job are not conclusive, but in total both employment and earnings in the two years following the beginning of the unemployment spell decrease with higher benefits.     

A production function analysis of English maternity hospitals.

In recent years, a number of attempts have been made to explain the output of hospitals by means of production function analysis and, in this particular study, the authors estimate Cobb-Douglas and log-quadratic functions from data for the 193 English maternity hospitals. Of the various inputs into maternity care, the numbers of beds and nurses appear as the most significant determinants of throughput, although the relative quantities actually employed differ from the “technical” optimum. Returns to scale in the maternity service appear to be, at best, constant. The effects of hospital location and type are also analysed and they suggest the existence of significant disparities in levels of efficiency between different hospitals.     

The decision to ‘bid for business’: Municipal behavior in granting property tax abatements

We investigate the timing of local economic development incentive offers by estimating duration models of the time to adoption of the first manufacturing property tax abatement offered by a municipal government. The effects of municipal characteristics, incentive prevalence measures, and fiscal stress indicators on the duration of non-abatement regimes are investigated using data for 112 municipalities in metropolitan Detroit during 1974–1992. Median household income and the local property tax price of local public services are found to affect the hazard rates. Most importantly, there is evidence of positive duration dependence, or an emulation effect, with first-time abatement offers.