Some labor market effects of labor supply responses to transfer programs

This paper utilizes a large-scale micro-simulation computer model to examine whether adverse effects on work effort initially resulting from implementation of a new income transfer plan might be partially offset through “second-round” responses by employers and by unemployed transfer recipients. The findings suggest that employer responses to shifts in labor supply curves that follow introduction of a transfer program have little potential for offsetting reductions in hours worked. Under certain circumstances, however, responses by the unemployed do offer a potential offset, particularly if in the absence of the program there would have been considerable excess supply of labor within the economy.     

Differential effects of active labour market programs for the unemployed

The differential performance of six Swedish active labour market programs for the unemployed is investigated in terms of short- and long-term employment probability and un-employment-benefit dependency. Both relative to one another and compared to more intense job search, the central finding is that the more similar to a regular job, the more effective a program is for its participants. Employment subsidies perform best by far, followed by trainee replacement and, by a long stretch, labour market training. Relief work and two types of work practice schemes appear by contrast to be mainly used to re-qualify for unemployment benefits.     

The national internal labor market encounters the local labor market: Effects on employee retention

Formal salary systems are commonplace among medium to large-sized firms and within the United States government. However, there is little evidence regarding the costs, if any, of such systems. This study analyzes the effects on retention within the United States Air Force from an inflexible wage system failing to adequately compensate personnel for local compensating wage differentials. Using location-specific Air Force personnel records, I compare the differences between military and civilian wages, by occupation, across locations to determine if local labor markets play a significant role in the stay or leave decisions for personnel. Results show that rigid wage constraints do in fact impose costs on the firm through increased turnover in locations that fail to adequately adjust wages for the cost of living and amenities.     

The labor market effects of non-wage compensations

Contrary to the argument that non-wage compensation is a tax on labor reducing employment, we find that employment may increase in response to an increased demand for benefits (a decreased cost of providing benefits or increased government-mandated benefit levels), under the assumption of strong cross-economies of scale. When there are strong cross-diseconomies of scale, employment and hours both decrease. The secular increase in employer-provided insurance and the growth in U.S. employment may well reflect the role of cross-economies of scale, which seems to exist in larger firms with lower marginal non-wage benefit costs.     

The early inception of labor market gender differences

This paper analyzes gender differences in jobs while in school using school-class-based samples, a setting in which education differences, “glass ceilings”, and career interruptions due to parenthood are irrelevant. I find that in this early stage of life boys already earn substantially more than girls. The earnings gap cannot be explained by differences in participation rates and hours of work, nor by gender wage gaps within job types. It is entirely due to the fact that girls work more in job types with relatively low wages, in particular babysitting. During the period considered, 1984–2001, the gender patterns of jobs while in school largely remained unchanged.     

The labor market consequences of experience in self-employment

Many public policies are designed to encourage self-employment. However, because self-employment experiences are typically brief, it becomes important to understand the long-term consequences of entering and then leaving self-employment. Using the Panel Study of Income Dynamics (PSID), we examine the effects of brief self-employment experience on subsequent labor market outcomes. We find that, relative to continued wage employment, brief spells in self-employment do not increase—and probably actually reduce—average hourly earnings upon return to wage employment. We also find that those who experience self-employment have difficulty returning to the wage sector. However, these consequences are small compared to similar experiences in unemployment.     

Uncertainty-driven labor market fluctuations

This paper explores uncertainty shocks as a driving force in a search and matching model of the labor market. Uncertainty takes the form of a noisy component in a firm׳s initial signal about job productivity. Greater uncertainty dampens job creation by increasing the risk of making the costly mistake of investing in jobs that will turn out to be unprofitable. Thus, uncertainty shocks can cause labor market downturns: lower vacancy rates, lower job-finding rates, and higher unemployment. Numerical simulations examine the level of volatility and the cross-correlations and autocorrelations of key U.S. labor market indicators that result from fluctuations driven by changes in uncertainty.     

Credit market constraints and labor market decisions

In this paper, we examine whether imperfections in credit markets spill over to other markets, particularly the labor market. We take the case of Italy, a country that experienced changes in the mortgage market brought about by the 1992 European unification and other institutional shifts. These events make Italy a good laboratory to study the effects of financial markets on the labor market. Using household data from the Bank of Italy between 1989 and 1993, we estimate the relationship between female participation and mortgage use. We find a significant impact of mortgages on women's participation in the labor market.     

Outsourcing, labor market pooling, and labor contracts

This paper considers the interaction between input sharing and labor market pooling in urban areas. In particular, it examines the impact of the size of a city and business risks on the organizational structures of firms located in urban agglomerations, and it also discusses the impact of organizational structure on incentives to insure workers against income risks. It is shown that manufacturing firms suffer from a coordination game in their decision to outsource production. The existence of idiosyncratic risks causes manufacturers to refrain from outsourcing. The incentives to offer wage and employment protection to workers are more pronounced when manufacturers outsource the production of their inputs to a local market, which mitigates the impact of labor market pooling.     

The part-time pay penalty in a segmented labor market

This paper is the first to examine the implications of switching to PT work for women's subsequent earnings trajectories, distinguishing by their type of contract: permanent or fixed-term. Using a rich longitudinal Spanish data set from Social Security records of over 76,000 prime-aged women strongly attached to the Spanish labor market, we find that the PT/FT hourly wage differential is larger and more persistent among fixed-term contract workers, strengthening the existent evidence that these workers can be classified as secondary. The paper discusses problems arising in empirical estimation (including a problem not discussed in the literature up to now: the differential measurement error of the LHS variable by PT status), and how to address them. It concludes with policy implications relevant for Continental Europe and its dual structure of employment protection.     

The dynamics of Central European equity market comovements

This paper examines short-term and long-term comovements between developed European Union (EU) stock markets and those of three Central European (CE) countries which recently joined the EU. Dynamic cointegration and principal components methods are applied, in addition to static tests. While we find no evidence of cointegration for the period July 1995–February 2005 as a whole, dynamic tests reveal alternating period of cointegration disrupted by episodes dominated by short-term domestic factors. Principal components analysis reveals that a stable factor explains a large proportion of return variances. Ultimately, despite the decade-long process of alignment by CE countries with the EU, evidence of steadily increasing convergence of equity markets is lacking.     

Social networks and labor market transitions

We study the influence of social networks on labor market transitions. We develop the first model where social ties and job status coevolve through time. Our key assumption is that the probability of formation of a new tie is greater between two employed individuals than between an employed and an unemployed individual. We show that this assumption generally generates negative duration dependence of exit rates from unemployment. Our model has a number of novel testable implications. For instance, we show that a higher connectivity among unemployed individuals reduces duration dependence and that exit rates depend positively on the duration of the last job held by the unemployed worker.     

Informal care and labor market participation

Understanding the effect of informal care for an elderly or disabled person on labor market outcomes is important for developing policies targeted towards caregivers. However, because of omitted variables bias, simple cross-sectional relationships may provide a misleading picture of the causal impact of informal care provision on labor force status. To address this, I use panel data for the period 2001–2007, which make it possible to track the same individuals over time, and observe how their outcomes alter as their care arrangements change. While caregiving does appear to have a modest negative impact on labor force participation, this impact is only one-quarter to one-sixth as large in the panel as in the cross-section. Taking account of individual heterogeneity, the impact of caregiving on other labor force outcomes (and on life satisfaction) seems to be small or non-existent. Large estimated effects from cross-sectional regressions are most likely driven by individual heterogeneity. One possible interpretation of this result is that the impact of caregiving on labor market outcomes and life satisfaction takes several years to manifest itself. Another is that the causal effect of caregiving on labor force outcomes and life satisfaction is quite small.     

Household debt and labor market fluctuations

The co-movements of labor productivity with output, total hours, vacancies and unemployment have changed since the mid 1980s. This paper offers an explanation for the sharp break in the fluctuations of labor market variables based on endogenous labor supply decisions following the mortgage market deregulation. We set up a search model with efficient bargaining and financial frictions, in which impatient borrowers can take an amount of credit that cannot exceed a proportion of the expected value of their real estate holdings. When borrowers' equity requirements are low, the impact of a positive technology shock on the marginal utility of consumption is strengthened, which in turn results in lower hours per worker and higher wages in the bargaining process. This shift in labor supply discourages firms from opening vacancies, reducing the impact of the shock on employment. We simulate the effects of an increase in both the loan-to-value ratio and the share of borrowers in total population. Our exercise shows that the response of labor market variables might have been substantially affected by the increase in household leverage in the US in the last twenty years.     

Women of color in the labor market

While the labor force participation rates of women have increased, and women work in a wider range of occupations than they did two decades ago, there remain gaps between the status of women and men, as well as between white women and women of color. Additionally, as the female labor force becomes more diverse, there are also differences among women of color in labor force participation, unemployment, and occupational status. Based on projections regarding the future structure of the labor force, it is likely that even as the status of some women of color improves, many will remain stuck in low-wage service and clerical jobs.     

Housing tenure and labor market impacts: The search goes on

We develop two search-theoretic models emphasizing firm entry to examine the Oswald hypothesis, the idea that homeownership is linked to inferior labor market outcomes, and compare their predictions to three extant theories. The five models have surprisingly different predictions about the labor market at both the aggregate and micro levels. Using a suitable instrumental variable strategy, we estimate both micro and aggregate level regression models of wages and unemployment and compare the estimates to those predictions. We find that while homeowners are less likely to be unemployed, they also have lower wages, all else equal, compared to renters. In addition, higher regional homeownership rates are associated with a greater probability of individual worker unemployment and higher wages. The outcome of a horserace between our new search-theoretic models is mixed—the wage-posting model predicts observed unemployment impacts while a bargaining variant does a better job explaining observed wages and aggregate labor market outcomes. Overall, we conclude that firm behavior is important for understanding the labor market impacts of homeownership. Because this is the case, regional homeownership rates are not good instruments for individual tenure choice in empirical work. And while individual homeowners may have inferior labor market outcomes as compared to renters, from the viewpoint of society, higher homeownership rates may result in greater job creation and overall production, among other benefits.     

Instability in the labor market for researchers

R&D is both an activity which involves team effort, and with many of the features of a zero-sum game. This paper shows that these characteristics make the labor market for researchers unstable in the sense that firms have incentives to continuously change the composition of their research teams. Related results concerning the core of several cooperative games in characteristic form are also proved.     

The financing of apprenticeship training in the light of labor market regulations

In this paper we analyze the training behavior of firms in Germany and Switzerland — two countries with a comparable apprenticeship system but strong differences in the regulation of their respective labor markets. We make use of two representative firm-level surveys on the provision of apprenticeship training to analyze differences in the costs and benefits of training and the firm's training decision. Our results suggest that firms are more likely to make a substantial (short-term) net investment in apprenticeship training in the presence of strong employment protection laws.     

Structural change accounting with labor market distortions

This paper quantifies the relative importance of sectoral productivity and labor market distortions for structural change in the U.S., India, Mexico and Brazil between 1960 and 2005. I use census data to compute human capital by sector and infer labor market distortions as sectoral gaps in wage per unit of human capital. I incorporate these distortions into a model of structural change, and calibrate the model to reproduce the time paths of sectoral shares of labor and value added for each country. Counterfactuals reveal that (1) TFP growth in agriculture drives most of the decline in its share of labor; (2) the role of labor market distortions is limited.