基于适度缴费的企业年金保障水平实证研究

依据各行业的盈利能力分别测算各行业的年金适度企业缴费率;根据OLG两期模型测算个人最优年金缴费率;构建年金替代率模型,测算企业年金适度保障水平。研究表明：全行业有支付能力的企业年金缴费率约为6．36％;最优年金个人缴费率为5．94％;适度缴费率下企业年金的替代率为25．17％,优化年金缴费结构可以提高年金的养老保障程度;提高个人年金缴费税惠额度,可以鼓励和加快年金发展。     

日韩养老金制度改革比较与借鉴

人口与劳动力市场变化是日本和韩国养老金改革的共因,但日本改革略显亡羊补牢,韩国则属未雨绸缪;从改革措施来看,两国都采取提高缴费率、降低替代率等方法缓解养老金财政困境,区别在于日本政府养老金财政的作用更突出,且属于缴费模式,韩国则属于税收模式;从成效来看,改革缓解了但并未根除两国养老金财政压力,两国当前养老金待遇在发达国家中较低,但韩国养老金再分配功能强于日本.鉴于中国耒富先老的典型特征,应该建设生产主义模式的养老保险制度,通过构建基础层次的城乡二元国民年金制度快速提高养老保险覆盖面,同时,尽快建立长期的社会养老政策战略计划,并建立中央政府直接监管养老金基金管理机构.     

The differences in the economic effects between the DB plan and the DC plan

This paper investigates the differences between the defined benefit plans (DB) and the defined contribution plans (DC) in the enterprise pension programs in Japan. Attention is paid not only to the effect of labor turnover but also to the difference in various categories of workers, which are classified by gender, education, timing of labor turnover, etc. Also, we take into consideration the effect of interest rates. One important conclusion of this paper is that the DC plan is superior to the DB plan, in contrast to the common belief. J. Japanese Int. Economies 18 (4) (2004) 551–564.     

我国事业单位养老金替代率测算及改革思路探讨

事业单位养老保险制度改革的核心是建立与企业养老保险框架相互衔接的制度,养老金替代率水平是决定改革成败的关键。论文通过构建保险精算模型,在给定条件下,模拟测算了视同缴费水平、过渡性养老金调节系数和退休年龄等对基本养老保险替代率的影响。结果表明,在现有政策框架下,高收入人群的养老金替代率明显偏低,而低收入者的养老金替代率又过高,其中代表性参保人的养老金替代率仅为73%,而低收入者的替代率可能高达156%。因此,适当提高视同缴费水平,合理设定过渡性养老金,适当延长退休年龄和建立多渠道的养老保险补充渠道,是我国事业单位养老社会化的关键。     

新疆新型农村社会养老保险综合评价研究

在某一地区设计和实施了养老保险制度后,必须对其现状和未来发展趋势进行综合评价和政策模拟,以便了解和掌握制度运行过程中出现的问题并及时进行调整。本文根据社会保障相关理论,建立新型农村社会养老保险综合评价指标体系及评价标准,运用粗糙集理论对相关指标进行属性约简,用模糊评价等方法对新疆新型农村社会养老保险的保障水平、养老金替代率、参保率、农民个人负担系数及综合发展水平进行实证分析及综合评价,并结合新疆的具体实际提出针对性的政策建议,以期为完善新疆新型农村养老保险制度提供参考和决策依据。     

中国人口年龄结构与养老保险制度的福利效应

预测表明,中国人口老龄化程度则在2005年以后不断增加;与此同时,在2030年以前城镇有效劳动力数量不断增加,随后会下降。在此背景下中国的养老保险制度应该在多大程度上发挥再分配的功能是养老保险制度改革需要确定的一个原则。采用中国的参数．评价养老保险制度的福利效应是本文的主要目的。养老保险的福利效应对不同时期出生的人有所差异,如果政府的目标函数兼顾效率和公平。可以得到一个对于社会总福利而言最优的养老保险规模。我们的模拟表明一个合适的现收现付制的养老保险制度在中国可以改进社会总福利。     

Designing an Alternative Public Pension Scheme: A Korean Case Study

The trends of ageing population and slow economic growth have become a major concern for public pension schemes with the defined benefit (DB) type. To mitigate the impact of this trend and secure long-term financial sustainability, several countries have recently adopted notional defined contribution (NDC) schemes. In this paper, we show how to apply an NDC scheme to the public pension system of Korea, arguably the fastest ageing country. In particular, we create a new pension system by combining the current Korean pension scheme and an NDC. Through simulations it is shown that the proposed scheme can reduce the financial instability caused by the changes in demographic and economic factors, while retaining the income redistribution component. We further consider applying a German-type automatic balancing mechanism to the proposed scheme, by using the average income to determine the return rate of the fund, to make it sustainable in the long term.     

The Effect of Pension Plan Type on Retirement Age: Distinguishing Plan Incentives from Career Length Preferences

This study uses the Retirement Confidence Survey of College and University Faculty, 2005,to examine the impact of pension plan incentives on retirement age and to understand how the widespread transition from defined benefit (DB) to defined contribution (DC) plans has affected workers. Incentives stemming from differences in pension wealth accrual patterns between DB and DC plans directly induce up to a one‐year difference in expected retirement age and are indirectly responsible for up to a two‐year difference due to workers sorting into plans based on preferences over career length. The results imply that failing to account for worker sorting leads to an overestimation of the transition's effect on the average retirement age of Americans. In addition, the findings suggest that individuals choose retirement plans to diversify retirement income, which has implications for Social Security reform.     

Is there any gain from social security privatization?

Increasing calls for a social security reform of switching from the pay-as-you-go (PAYG) system to a funded system has been seen in recent decades. This paper examines the effect of this reform on capital accumulation and the welfare of each generation. Three methods are used to finance the pension debt, government debt financing, tax financing, and government asset financing. With government debt or tax financing, the market equilibrium remains unchanged and all generations are as well off in the new system as in the PAYG system. Thus, switching from the PAYG system to a funded system is neutral. With government asset financing, the interest rate will decrease, private capital will increase, but the total output may either increase or decrease. The welfare effect is also ambiguous in general, depending on the rate of return of government assets. With plausible parameters, our simulation shows that the reform will lower the interest rate, increase private capital, and lower government capital in the short run, but raise government capital and increase output in the long run.     

Market Valuation,Pension Fund Policy and Contribution Volatility

Summary Market valuation is becoming more and more popular, both in accounting and regulation, as well as in academic circles. For pension funds and their participants, the knowledge that market-valued pension liabilities can indeed be transferred to a third party, if necessary, is a great virtue. Using a simulation model, this paper demonstrates the implicit costs and benefits of using market valuation for a typical Dutch pension fund, which offers a guaranteed average pay nominal pension with conditional indexation. The impact turns out to be fairly small, if fixed discount rates are still used for conditional rights. However, if market valuation is used for both unconditional and conditional rights, contribution volatility increases significantly. A remedy is to increase the duration of assets considerably. It is not clear, though, whether this option is available for large pension funds given the limited supply of long-term bonds. This paper benefited from discussions at seminars at DNB, PVK, ABP and CPB. We are grateful to Jan-Marc Berk, Dirk Broeders, and Peter van Els for useful suggestions and comments on a previous version of the paper. Views expressed are those of the authors and do not necessarily reflect official positions of De Nederlandsche Bank.     

新疆被征地农民养老保险替代率的实证研究

保障农民基本生活是被征地农民养老保险的出发点和归宿点,其中,养老保险替代率是衡量被征地养老保险水平的重要指标及关键因素,体现了政府对养老保险的制度安排和政策取向。本文根据社会保险精算学相关理论,构建了被征地农民养老保险替代率的精算模型,并结合新疆具体实际,对被征地农民的设计替代率、合意替代率及基于调整指数的替代率进行分析,以期为完善新疆被征地农民养老保险制度提供参考和借鉴。     

Pooling my personal account: Income responses to the payroll tax in China

Developing countries collect not only a far lower share of GDP in taxes, but also less payroll taxes than rich countries. This paper explores income responses to the payroll tax by evaluating the 2006 pension reform that subtracted 3 percentage points of employees' Defined Contribution account in China. First, our estimate of total income elasticity with respect to the pension rate is larger than 2, implying a lower optimal payroll tax rate than in rich countries. Second, we separate total income into labor and non-labor income, and show significant income shifting from labor to non-labor income. Third, we provide suggestive evidence that income responses to the pension reform are from evasion rather than real responses. We emphasize the necessity of administrative capacity for developing countries to extend the pension system. Remarkably, sharing the employer payroll tax with employees may be a self-enforcement mechanism, similar to the value-added tax, of the payroll tax.     

Fiscal and Welfare Effects of Balanced-budget Reforms of Korea’s National Pension System

This paper evaluates the fiscal sustainability of the benchmark pension system in Korea, which will come into effect in 2028 following the 2007 pension reforms, and the welfare effects of pension reforms aimed at a balanced budget over the life cycle. To this end, we measure the lifetime pension deficit, i.e. the difference between total pension benefits and total pension contributions in an individual’s lifetime. We find that the benchmark pension system is expected to run an average lifetime deficit of 22.36 million won (approximately $22,360), and the current pension fund is unlikely to finance the sum of future deficits. The optimal pension reform for the zero average lifetime deficit reduces social welfare by as much as a 2.06% fall in consumption and is characterised with the contribution rate of 20.3% and an average replacement rate of 66.4%. These values are much higher than the respective benchmark values, 9% and 40%, because the increase in pension benefits, combined with the increase in pension contributions, can reduce the income inequality due to the progressivity of pension benefits and the proportionality of pension contributions.     

Replacement rate of the lost wages by pension: Its economic meaning and problems of application in Russia

This article examines the nature and purpose of the replacement rate as a key indicator of the effectiveness of the insurance pension system, which allows one to estimate the level of pension payments for the lost earnings of an employee. It analyzes the standard requirements to a typical recipient of a retirement pension for calculating the replacement rate and touches upon the problems of the adequate application of this index as a landmark for the implementation of the pension system in the Russian Federation.     

State Pension Accounting Estimates and Strong Public Unions

Concerns are commonly raised that strong public unions extract generous pension benefits from state governments and are the cause of states' burdensome pension obligations. Prior research (Anzia and Moe 2015) finds evidence supporting such concerns. Consistent with incentives to minimize such perceptions, our findings suggest that state pension plans with stronger public unions select higher discount rates to improve reported funding levels. While riskier asset allocations are used to support the higher discount rates (which equal the expected return on the plan assets), most of the higher rates appear opportunistic. In addition, consistent with a desire to avoid drawing attention to persistent plan underfunding, our evidence indicates that stronger union plans are less likely to select longer amortization periods to recognize pension deficits when underfunding is larger. We do not, however, find evidence for asset smoothing periods being used to delay the recognition of investment losses on plan assets. Together, our findings suggest that stronger union plans take steps to make their pension obligations look less burdensome to the public.     

目标替代率下企业年金缴费率测算——基于个人、企业负担能力的实证分析

企业和个人是否有能力负担企业年金缴费是年金制度得以推广的关键所在。首先在前人定性研究的基础上,结合我国居民2003-2012年收入支出数据和企业1995-2012年投入产出数据,运用回归分析的方法,构建回归模型对职工个人和企业的经济能力进行测算,结果显示个人可负担的平均缴费率上限为26.95%,企业可负担8.19%,即个人和企业均有负担年金缴费的经济能力。然后运用精算平衡的方法,通过模型构建和参数设定,计算在20%的目标替代率下职工的年金缴费率,其中男职工为3.68%,女职工为4.09%。结果表明,企业和个人能够在可承受范围内参与年金计划,实现年金目标替代率,缓解基本养老金支付压力。最后为企业年金制度的逐步推行提出可行建议。     

河南省中小板上市公司的盈利能力实证研究

净资产收益率、主营业务利润率、总资产利润率、资产负债率、主营业务收入增长率、净利润增长率、总资产周转率等因素对中小板上市公司的盈利能力都有不同程度的影响。通过建立多因素灰关联模型,分析影响因素与河南省中小板上市公司盈利能力的相关程度。研究发现河南省中小板上市公司的盈利能力与主营业务利润率和净资产收益率等指标有显著的相关性。     

Crisis and Pension System Design in the EU: International Spillover Effects Via Factor Mobility and Trade

Many European Union states have adjusted pension benefits or reformed the pension system in reaction to the recent economic crisis, while other member states have postponed this type of adjustments. In this paper we study to what extent countries that responded quickly to the crisis are harmed by the lingering in other member states via international spillover effects caused by factor mobility and trade. We show that this depends crucially on the degree of labour mobility in the short run. In fact, countries with more flexible pensions can benefit from the inflexibility of pensions in other countries if they can temporarily limit immigration.     

The Effects of the Tax Cuts and Jobs Act of 2017 on Defined Benefit Pension Contributions*

This study examines the effect of the Tax Cuts and Jobs Act of 2017 (TCJA) on corporate defined benefit pension contributions. The TCJA decreases the corporate tax rate from 35 percent in 2017 to 21 percent in 2018 and thereafter. This change incentivizes firms to increase 2017 pension contributions to take advantage of tax deductions at a higher rate. Consistent with this incentive, we find firms increase defined benefit pension contributions by an average of 25 to 31 percent in 2017 compared with earlier years. We also find that taxpaying firms are the primary contributors. Further, taxpaying firms with high levels of pension-related deferred tax assets contribute over three times as much as taxpaying firms with low levels of pension-related deferred tax assets. We also find firms that increase pension contributions in 2017 reduce 2018 contributions, consistent with intertemporal income shifting rather than a permanent change in pension funding strategy.     

Impact of the National Pension Fund on the Suitability of Elderly Pensions in Thailand*

This study combines a traditional hypothetical worker approach with the techniques of stochastic forecasting to provide a better sense about the suitability of the pension system for formal sector private workers in Thailand. With regard to the proposed defined‐contribution pension, we find that workers with a 40‐year career can only expect a median replacement rate of approximately 13–14 percent of their final 5 years of income. Most of the pension benefits will still likely come from the unsustainable defined‐benefit pension system and further reforms will be needed to maintain suitable pensions.