Individual characteristics and the demand for reciprocity in trade liberalization: Evidence from a survey in Japan

Reciprocity is an important concept in international trade negotiations. However, we know little about who demands reciprocity in trade liberalization. This paper characterizes reciprocitarians based on a survey of 10,816 individuals in Japan. Workers in protected sectors tend to demand reciprocity in import liberalization, but oppose the demand for foreign countries to open their markets. In contrast, individuals in managerial occupations tend to demand foreign market opening, but reject the idea of no import liberalization without reciprocity. We also examine the effects of education, nationalism, and risk aversion.     

Supply-induced demand for medical services under price regulation: Evidence from hospital expansion in China

In 2009, China launched a nationwide reform to overhaul its enormous healthcare system. Subsequently, government spending on healthcare increased significantly. Simultaneously, public hospitals experienced rapid expansion. This study empirically examines whether supply-induced demand existed for public hospitals during the expansion process, based on hospital longitudinal data from 2007 to 2016, which is matched with individual patient data. We found that medical expenditure increased rapidly, while the quality of medical services did not change significantly during the hospital expansion. In addition, due to the price regulation of medical services, public hospitals mainly passed on the costs of expansion by inducing hospitalization and diagnostic over-testing. Furthermore, supply-induced demand was more obvious in diseases for which doctors had more asymmetric information. Based on the evidence provided in this study, the expansion of public hospitals has resulted in a waste of healthcare resources and a rise in the healthcare burden on patients. This has certain implications for further deepening the reform of public hospitals.     

CEO experience and corporate financing decisions: Evidence from a natural experiment in China

Using the unique setting in China's economic transition and market reform, we investigate whether CEOs' experience regarding an economic boom affect corporate financing decisions. Economic booming, as a result of China's reform and open policy since 1978, affects individual risk preferences and decision behavior for those who grew up during the reform process. We find that Reform-and-Opening CEOs, who experience the reform and open-up era early in life, implement more aggressive capital structure policies and maintain higher leverage compared to Planned Economy CEOs. Furthermore, we determine that Reform-and-Opening CEOs tend to conduct debt issuance more frequently to cover financing needs as they can better deal with the liquidity risk of debt financing and confront the pressures arising from frequent monitoring by the debt markets. Using the stagewise regression, we find a cumulative effect of early growth experience. We also use the common trend test and placebo tests to deal with the concern that Reform-and-Opening CEOs pursue significantly more aggressive financial policies relevant to the systematic differences. Additional tests rule out the possibility that our results are driven by industry competition, state ownership, and educational ideology.     

Corporate governance and the cost of public debt financing: Evidence from Japan

This paper explores the relationship between corporate governance mechanisms and the cost of public debt financing in Japan. Using a sample of corporate bonds newly issued in Japan during the period 2005–2008, I find that CEO ownership is associated with higher yield spreads after controlling for other governance, bond, and firm characteristics. Founding family ownership is also positively related to yield spreads. In contrast, firms with large corporate shareholders enjoy lower yield spreads. These results are robust to various alternative specifications. Overall, my results indicate the importance of corporate governance mechanisms in Japanese corporate bond markets.     

Environmental (de)centralization and local environmental governance: Evidence from a natural experiment in China

It is of great importance for government to design effective incentive mechanisms in environmental governance. This paper investigates the causal effects of environmental (de)centralization on local governments' environmental governance. Based on stragged establishments timing of regional Supervision Centers for Environmental Protection (SCEPs) in China, we introduce a unique government administrative dataset on firm pollution in order to conduct gradual intensity difference-in-differences estimations. We present strong evidence that establishing the SCEPs significantly prompt firms to reduce emission pollution. Since the establishment of the SCEPs brings more effective information collection and supervision, promoting local firms reduce pollutant generation and increase investment in pollution control. Moreover, the SCEPs could coordinate adjacent provinces' incentives on reducing firms' emissions around provincial boundaries. Besides, this study provides clear policy implications that when fiscal decentralization carries the risk of aggravating environmental pollution, vertical management structures in environmental governance could effectively strengthen incentives and coordination.     

Upward mobility and the demand for children: Evidence from China

This paper aims to investigate a new determinant of the demand for children: upward mobility. Upward mobility can affect the demand for children in two opposite directions: upward mobility means more resources to spend on childbearing and increases the demand for children; it also lowers the need to rely on children for old-age support and this leads to lower demand for children. In this paper, we use the difference between the subject's self-evaluations of the future and current social class as the measure of upward mobility, and fertility desire to represent the demand for children. Using the Chinese General Social Survey (CGSS) data, we find that upward mobility significantly increases the demand for children, and the results are robust across various model specifications (pooled data regression, Poisson regression, and IV regression). The effect is concentrated among affluent and/or urban households, suggesting that those from more advantaged social-economic backgrounds appear to have a higher elasticity of fertility in response to upward mobility. Our results imply that improving upward mobility and public services such as education, health care, and social security would be effective to boost fertility in China.     

Peer effects in rural housing demand: Evidence from China

This paper utilizes data from the China Household Finance Survey 2011 to study peer effects in housing demand in rural China. We find that focal households' housing consumption is heavily influenced by peer households' housing consumption. Evidence from placebo tests, IV estimates and robust tests suggests that the relationship is causal. In addition, we show that status seeking and social learning play important roles in determining peer effects in the demand for rural houses. Finally, we explore the heterogeneity in peer effects and determine that the leading mechanism is status seeking.     

Liberalization for services FDI and export quality: Evidence from China

By employing firm-level export data in China, this paper empirically examines the effect of liberalization of services foreign direct investment (FDI) on exporting firms’ quality upgrading. To evaluate its relative effectiveness, we also examine other kinds of trade policies, including tariffs in export destination countries and input and output tariffs in China. With China's accession to the World Trade Organization in December 2001, these trade policies changed substantially during our sample period of 2000–06. Empirical results showed that easing the restrictiveness of services FDI resulted in raising export product quality, mainly for foreign-owned enterprises. More than any other trade policy, we found that reduced input tariffs contributed to raising export product quality.     

Tax enforcement and corporate employment: Evidence from a quasi-natural experiment in China

This study investigates how tax enforcement affects corporate employment in China. We utilize the merger of the State Tax Bureau and Local Tax Bureaus as a quasi-natural experiment and adopt a difference-in-differences framework to identify causality. The results show that tougher tax enforcement has a significant and negative effect on corporate employment and that this effect is more pronounced for firms with higher labor intensity, greater financial constraints, more severe labor market frictions, a lower initial tax rate, lower tax transfer ability, and greater credit market imperfections. Further, the mechanism tests demonstrate that tougher tax enforcement leads to increases in the effective income tax rate, cash holdings, and the cash flow sensitivity of real investment but decreases in accounts receivable and dividend payments. These results are consistent with the liquidity constraints channel. In addition, we exclude several alternative explanations and conduct a series of robustness checks. Overall, our findings indicate that corporate tax enforcement has large effects on the local labor demand, which provides some useful insights for local governments to stabilize employment during the COVID-19 pandemic.     

Reputational Penalties in Japan: Evidence from Corporate Scandals

We examine incidents in which Japanese businesses are implicated in corporate scandals. Such firms suffer statistically significant losses in their market values. Given the negligible legal and regulatory penalties for Japanese companies, we interpret the results as convincing evidence on the magnitude of reputational losses. We also compare our results to those found in US studies. The average negative abnormal stock price reaction is larger in Japan than in the USA. Moreover, they are negative and statistically significant even when it is not obvious that the firm violated an implicit or explicit contract with the damaged party.     

The impact of banking services on poverty: Evidence from sub-district level for Bangladesh

The extent to which banking services can reduce poverty is under question as recent experimental evidence has suggested that there is no impact. Our findings, based on survey and administrative data, are to the contrary. We compile a unique dataset of banking measures and poverty indicators at the level of Bangladesh’s 544 administrative sub-districts. We find a relationship between banking services and poverty reduction, and show that the relationship works through the deposit channel rather than the credit channel. We exploit variation in branch placement by sub-district between 2010 and 2015 to implement a difference-in-difference estimation approach. We also estimate ordinary least squares and fixed effects models to explore the role of factors other than banking services in poverty incidence. Broad findings supporting a role for the deposit channel, but not the credit channel, are confirmed. These results have significant policy implications as governments in developing countries are actively involved in promoting financial inclusion through the banking sector.     

Firm-level impacts of natural disasters on production networks: Evidence from a flood in Thailand

This paper explores the firm-level impact of the 2011 flooding in Thailand, specifically, the impact on procurement patterns at Japanese affiliates in Thailand. We find that, first, small firms are more likely to lower their local procurement share, especially their share of procurement from other Japanese-owned firms in Thailand. Second, young firms are more likely to increase their share of imports from Japan, whereas old firms are more likely to look to China. Third, there is no impact on imports from ASEAN and other countries. These findings are useful for uncovering how multinationals adjust their production networks before and after natural disasters.     

Permissible collateral and access to finance: Evidence from a quasi-natural experiment

By allowing large classes of movable assets to be used as collateral, the Property Law reform transformed the secured transactions in China. Difference-in-differences tests show firms operating with ex-ante more movable assets expand access to bank credit and prolong debt maturity. However, the reform does not seem to improve the efficiency of credit allocation, as debt capacity of ex-ante low quality firms expands the most following the reform. Credit expansion also does not lead to better firm performance. These findings are not driven by confounding factors such as improvements in creditor and property rights protection. Our results also cannot be explained by other important reforms which were introduced around the same time as the introduction of the Property Law. These include anti-tunneling and split-share reforms and amendments to the corporate tax structure in China. We conduct explicit robustness tests for these other reforms and hence contribute to the empirical literature on the reform process in China with new findings.     

China's anti-corruption campaign and firm productivity: Evidence from a quasi-natural experiment

We investigate the causal effects of the anti-corruption campaign on firm-level total factor productivity (TFP) in China. We employ a difference-in-differences estimation to show the following results. (1) The anti-corruption campaign substantially improves TFP by 1.7%. (2) Our findings are particularly pronounced in non-state-owned enterprises, in firms without political connections, and in regions with weak legal environment. (3) We find that the anti-corruption campaign increases the sensitivity of firm investment to investment opportunities and generates more patents, which reveals the importance of investment efficiency channel and innovation channel. This study provides clear policy implication to regulators by identifying firm-level evidence for rent-seeking theory.     

Spillovers from foreign direct investment in services: Evidence at sub-sectoral level for the Asia-Pacific

We take a sectoral level approach to analyzing the effects of foreign direct investment (FDI) inflows. We disaggregate FDI first by manufacturing versus services, then within services by financial services, trade services, and business services. We consider the effects of FDI inflows on growth of GDP per capita, then distinguish between growth in manufacturing and services value added per capita. Our data sample comprises 14 Asia Pacific economies for the period 1985–2012 to which we apply a dynamic panel generalized method of moments estimation technique. Services FDI as a whole is found to have a significantly positive impact on GDP growth while manufacturing FDI is found to have no effect. The impetus for growth from services FDI traces to financial services in particular, acting not only directly on service sector output but through manufacturing sector output as well. By contrast, trade services FDI is found to have a significantly negative effect on manufacturing output with no significant effect on services output. Foreign participation in trade services may act to expose domestic manufacturers to international competition and may also lead to domestic consolidation to take advantage of economies of scale.     

Corruption as a natural resource curse: Evidence from the Chinese coal mining

Research on the natural resource curse has been extended to the impact of natural resource abundance/dependence on institutional or governance quality, which includes corruption. This study investigates the impact of coal mining on local corruption in China. The findings show a positive association between coal output and corruption at the prefectural Party Secretary's level. Using the spatial band of 200 km radius and 100 km radius of individual coalmines aggregated at prefecture level as an instrumental variable, we establish the causality running from coal output to local corruption. A robustness check using court verdicts of all bribery cases in China indicate the same result, i.e., coal mining is conducive to local corruption at all levels. Furthermore, we show that the mechanism is not through demand side, i.e., corruption is not a consequence of economic boom around the coalmines but directly linked to the coal mining itself.     

Macroeconomic implications of population aging: Evidence from Japan

Population aging is an important feature of Japan’s economy, which since 2006 has become a super-aged society. Changes in the age distribution of the population have important macroeconomic implications. Using annual data for 1960–2015, this study tests whether population age shares have long run influences on domestic saving, domestic investment, real GDP, inflation, the fiscal balance, and the current account balance. Cointegration is found between each macroeconomic variable and the demographic variables, which is a key finding of the analysis. The main empirical findings from the long-run cointegrating equations are that the effects of demographic change on the macroeconomic variables are statistically significant and quite strong. Alternative variants of the United Nation’s population projections provide further evidence of the importance of the demographic changes for Japan’s macroeconomic future. This study finds that future trends of key macroeconomic variables are not monotonic, but rather that long swings in the demographic factors produce a mixture of moderate growth periods and episodes of GDP stagnation.     

Who has benefited from the health services system for the elderly in Japan?

This paper examines the demand and supply of medical services for the elderly in the health services system characterized by per-month fixed copayment and selective capitation fee scheme for outpatients with chronic diseases. The results indicate that the beneficiary, in particular the household dependent, visits a physician more frequently because the actual copayment decreases for the household dependent, but is nearly the same for the head of the household. Physicians, however, provide more services to the beneficiary partly because of the lowered copayment and partly because of the capitation fee scheme, which they will select instead of the fee-for-service scheme only when capitation is more profitable than Fee-for-Service. As a result, physicians as well as the insured benefit from the health services system.     

Sources of successful cost recovery for water: Evidence from a national survey of South African municipalities

This article analyses variation in municipal cost recovery for water services in South Africa. It uses original data from a national survey of municipalities, conducted in late 2000. A multivariate causal model is estimated to measure the effects of social and institutional context, service infrastructure, and billing and payment practices. The analysis shows that cost-recovery outcomes vary widely and are quite sensitive to factors that can be influenced by municipal decision-makers. Substantive implications for a typical South African municipality are clarified through simulations of the effects of upgrading infrastructure, introducing various cost-recovery measures, and extending basic services to poor households. As profound changes in the institutional and policy environment--including municipal restructuring (demarcation) and the 'free basic water' policy--force municipalities to review their cost-recovery strategies, the article offers insights into how to achieve the best possible outcomes.