Protestantism, Labor Force Participation, and Employment Across Countries

A bstract .   Using data from 80 countries, this article analyzes whether Protestant religion affects labor market outcomes. Controlling for the impact of labor market regulations, business regulations, the tax burden, the business cycle, the level of economic development, demographic and geographical conditions, wars, and the transition from planned to market economy as well as unobserved country and year effects, we find that countries in which the largest portion of the population practices Protestant religion have substantially higher labor force participation and employment rates, particularly among women. We obtain the same result for a subgroup of 19 industrial countries for which we have better data to control for the impact of labor market institutions and business cycle fluctuations.     

Predicting benchmarked US state employment data in real time

US payroll employment data come from a survey and are subject to revisions. While revisions are generally small at the national level, they can be large enough at the state level to alter assessments of current economic conditions. Users must therefore exercise caution in interpreting state employment data until they are “benchmarked” against administrative data 5–16 months after the reference period. This article develops a state-space model that predicts benchmarked state employment data in real time. The model has two distinct features: (1) an explicit model of the data revision process and (2) a dynamic factor model that incorporates real-time information from other state-level labor market indicators. We find that the model reduces the average size of benchmark revisions by about 11 percent. When we optimally average the model’s predictions with those of existing models, the model reduces the average size of the revisions by about 14 percent.     

地区间生产率差异与收敛——基于中国各产业的分析

本文主要分析了中国各产业的省际间劳动生产率差异与收敛问题.实证结果表明,改革开放以来,中国各产业地区间劳动生产率存在明显的差异.从20世纪90年代开始,产业间生产率差异随时间呈现出扩大趋势.各产业不存在地区间劳动生产率的绝对收敛,却存在条件收敛,而且收敛的速度较快.实证也发现,各产业地区间的劳动生产率差异是地区间人均收入差异的直接原因,各产业地区间生产率差异和经济增长的快慢统计上并没有必然的联系.     

Endogenous labor force participation and firing costs

I construct a matching model to explain the labor market transition between employment, unemployment and nonparticipation, and evaluate the quantitative effects of firing costs. The model has several features that are distinguished from previous studies: endogenous labor force participation, different job-search decisions and imperfect insurance markets. I find that the model is able to account for the U.S. labor market, especially the gross labor-force transition rates. I also find that firing costs as a type of firing tax have a negative effect on the layoff rate, the job-finding probability and the participation rate. In particular, the effect of a decrease in the job-finding probability is greater than the effect of a decrease in the layoff rate, and this results in an increase in the unemployment-to-population ratio. Finally, firing costs make individuals' job tenures longer and skew the asset distribution to the right.     

Labor supply and the optimality of Social Security

Traditional economic theory predicts that an unfunded public pension system can be justified on the basis of its ability to provide intergenerational transfers, and also for its ability to provide partial insurance against mortality and labor income risks. In this paper, I demonstrate that the quantitative importance of these traditional roles depends on how the pension system distorts households' labor supply decisions. Using a general-equilibrium life-cycle consumption model calibrated to the U.S. economy, I show that these distortions can be large enough to erase much of the traditional welfare gains from Social Security. I also find that this fact is robust within the range of labor supply elasticities usually encountered in the macroeconomic literature.     

促进科技中介市场发展与大学生就业的地方立法问题研究

本文针对经济危机冲击下的我国地方政府,如何可持续地发展经济,促进科技中介市场的形成,有效安置大学生就业这一问题,从法学视角出发,结合科技中介市场情况的调研,客观地分析了一些地方政府在启动科技中介市场上存在的弊端,在结合我国国情和借鉴国外相关立法经验的基础上,对我国地方政府促进科技中介市场的发展与有效安置大学生就业相衔接的措施,作出了法律制度上的设计。     

落实科学发展观 以先进为榜样

四年前,我参加了人事部、中国物流与采购联合会召开的首届全国物流行业先进集体、劳动模范和先进工作者表彰大会。今天,我又很高兴来参加人社部、中国物流与采购联合会召开的第二届全国物流行业先进集体、劳动模范和先进工作者表彰大会。在此,我向全国物流行业先进集体、劳动模范和先进工作者表示热烈的祝贺!向全国物流行业的广大干部职工,表示亲切的慰问!     

The importance of employer contacts: Evidence based on selection on observables and internal replication

I estimate effects of the labor market training program “Swit” on employment using both register and survey data. Swit was initiated in an attempt to increase the supply of qualified personnel in the IT sector. Based on the register data I find a large positive effect from the Swit on employment as compared to conventional programs directed towards IT. By also using survey information I conclude that the effect was due to increased employer contacts. The result is of interest because of the relatively large effect especially for individuals with traditionally weak positions on the labor market. Furthermore, I methodologically demonstrate how information about the contents of the programs may corroborate findings based on conditional independence assumptions.     

Stochastic convergence analysis of US state economic freedom sub-components: Evidence from unit root tests for bounded processes

This study tests for convergence of the three main sub-components of economic freedom (government spending, taxation, and labor market freedom) for the 50 US states from 1981 to 2019. In particular, we test for stochastic convergence using unit root tests that account for structural breaks and bounded processes. By controlling for these sources of parameter instability, we find limited evidence in favor of stochastic convergence across the three sub-components of economic freedom. However, we find more evidence of stochastic convergence with respect to the sub-components than in the case of the overall economic freedom at the US state level. Our results highlight the distinct nature of the institutional quality across states as represented by government spending, taxation, and labor market freedom.     

Urban Wages and Labor Market Agglomeration

Using the 5% public use micro sample of the 1990 U.S. census, we find that observationally equivalent workers in the manufacturing sector earn higher wages when they are in urban labor markets that have a larger share of national or metropolitan employment in their same occupation and industry groups. Quantitatively, the effect is large, with an elasticity (measured at the means) of between 1.2 and 3.6 for these effects. We interpret the willingness of firms to pay more for equivalent workers in dense markets as evidence of an agglomeration economy in urban labor.     

Teacher quality and dropout outcomes in a large,urban school district

Recent research shows that variation in teacher quality has large effects on student performance. However, this research is based entirely on student test scores. Focusing on high-school math teachers, this paper evaluates teacher quality in terms of another educational outcome of great interest—graduation. I use a unique instrumental variables approach to identify teacher effects and find that differences in teacher quality have large effects on graduation outcomes. Because teacher effects on graduation outcomes will be more pronounced for students who are on the graduation margin, the results imply an avenue through which high-quality teachers are more productive with disadvantaged students.     

Are specific skills an obstacle to labor market adjustment?

This paper shows that specialized education reduces workers’ mobility and hence their ability to cope with economic changes. We illustrate this point using labor force data from two countries having experienced important macroeconomic turbulence; a large economy with rigid labor markets, Poland, and a small open economy with increased flexibility, Estonia. We find that holding a vocational degree is associated with much longer unemployment duration spells and higher likelihood of leaving activity for older workers. We then build a theoretical framework in which young agents’ careers are heavily determined by the type of initial education, and analyze the transition to a new steady-state after a sectoral demand shift. Quantitative exercises suggest that the over-specialization of the labor force in Poland led to much higher and persistent unemployment compared to Estonia during the period of EU enlargement. Traditional labor market institutions (wage rigidity and employment protection) lead to an increase of the unemployment gap, but to a lesser extent.     

Teacher quality and dropout outcomes in a large, urban school district

Recent research shows that variation in teacher quality has large effects on student performance. However, this research is based entirely on student test scores. Focusing on high-school math teachers, this paper evaluates teacher quality in terms of another educational outcome of great interest—graduation. I use a unique instrumental variables approach to identify teacher effects and find that differences in teacher quality have large effects on graduation outcomes. Because teacher effects on graduation outcomes will be more pronounced for students who are on the graduation margin, the results imply an avenue through which high-quality teachers are more productive with disadvantaged students.     

Deunionization and job polarization – a macroeconomic model analysis for a small open economy

Declining unionization rates and job polarization are two important labor market developments of recent decades. A large body of literature has analyzed these phenomena separately, but little has been done to see whether there is a link between them. We employ a macroeconomic model for a small open economy with a large input–output core to analyze how deunionization may cause job polarization. Our analysis shows that medium-skilled workers are negatively affected by deunionization, mainly as a result of the heterogeneity of the elasticities of substitution between different types of labor. While the elasticities of substitution between high- and medium-skilled labor are relatively low, the elasticities of substitution between medium- and low-skilled are relatively high. As a result, when deunionization leads to increased wage dispersion, we find that demand for low-skilled increases at the expense of medium-skilled labor, thus yielding a more polarized labor market.     

The Long-Run Effect of Economic Development Policy on Resident Welfare in a Perfectly Competitive Urban Economy

This paper argues that evaluations of economic development policy must consider the long-run effect on resident welfare. The paper uses comparative static analysis of a closed, urban economy with an explicit labor market, to investigate the effect of policies that stimulate economic activity. The paper finds that such policies do not necessarily raise resident welfare, because of the competition for land between firms and households. On the other hand, the paper does find that income transfers increase resident welfare. This model assumes, however, that the land, capital, and labor markets are perfectly competitive. Therefore, these results are based on the assumption that an urban economy is efficient.     

State and local fiscal policy and growth at the border

The paper studies the connection between state and local fiscal policy, as measured by the share of government spending and revenues in personal income, and the economic activity of counties that share a state border. I construct a panel of pairs of US counties that share a state border from the 1970s to 2012. Economic activity is measured by county employment, wages and business establishments. The state and local government spending and revenue shares are aggregates for the states on the respective sides of the border. I estimate distributed lag regressions of changes in economic activity on changes in state and local government budgets in two ways. The first (double difference) utilizes change in the difference between border counties. This suggests a quite modest relocation of economic activity away from states with fiscal expansion. I then look at activity on each side of the border separately and find more substantial and consistently negative effects of fiscal expansion on both sides of the border. A border county shares the negative consequences for its neighbor of growth in the size of that neighbor's state and local governments. This negative fiscal externality is roughly half the size of the direct negative effects from similar own-state spending increases, and the sum of the two is substantial economically.     

The effect of match quality and specific experience on career decisions and wage growth

This paper constructs and estimates a career decision model where individuals search for both careers and firms that are a good match for their idiosyncratic skills using the NLSY79. It departs from previous papers in that career mobility decisions and participation decisions are explicitly modeled. I find substantial returns to career-specific experience. However, college graduates' wage grows little through career-match upgrading, which results in a lower incidence of career changes than high school graduates. The finding suggests that college graduates learn about their suitable careers before they enter a labor market.     

Market reforms in the time of imbalance

We study the consequences of product and labor market reforms in a two-country model with endogenous producer entry and labor market frictions. We focus on the role of business cycle conditions and external constraints at the time of reform implementation (or of a credible commitment to it) in shaping the dynamic effects of such policies. Product market reform is modeled as a reduction in entry costs and takes place in a non-traded sector that produces services used as input in manufacturing production. Labor market reform is modeled as a reduction in firing costs and/or unemployment benefits. We find that business cycle conditions at the time of deregulation significantly affect adjustment. A reduction of firing costs entails larger and more persistent adverse short-run effects on employment and output when implemented in a recession. By contrast, a reduction in unemployment benefits boosts employment and output by more in a recession compared to normal times. The impact of product market reforms is less sensitive to business cycle conditions. Credible announcements about future reforms induce sizable short-run dynamics, regardless of whether the announcement takes place in normal times or during an economic downturn. Whether the immediate effect is expansionary or contractionary varies across reforms. Finally, lack of access to international lending in the wake of reform can amplify the costs of adjustment.     

What are the macroeconomic effects of high‐frequency uncertainty shocks?

This paper evaluates the effects of high‐frequency uncertainty shocks on a set of low‐frequency macroeconomic variables representative of the US economy. Rather than estimating models at the same common low frequency, we use recently developed econometric models, which allow us to deal with data of different sampling frequencies. We find that credit and labor market variables react the most to uncertainty shocks in that they exhibit a prolonged negative response to such shocks. When looking at detailed investment subcategories, our estimates suggest that the most irreversible investment projects are the most affected by uncertainty shocks. We also find that the responses of macroeconomic variables to uncertainty shocks are relatively similar across single‐frequency and mixed‐frequency data models, suggesting that the temporal aggregation bias is not acute in this context.