Stability of production networks in East Asia: Duration and survival of trade

This paper sheds light on the stability of international production networks in East Asia from the perspective of the duration and survival of bilateral trade relationships at the product-line level. Using highly disaggregated data for intra-East Asian machinery trade, survival analysis is conducted as well as the examinations of the duration and volatility of trade relationships. The product-level analyses reveal that, compared to machinery finished products, machinery parts & components are traded through longer-lived and more stable relationships among East Asian countries. Once transactions are started, trade relationships of machinery parts & components are more likely to be maintained between countries even at a long distance, regardless of the exchange-rate fluctuations. The probability of discontinuing trade relationships of machinery finished products, on the other hand, are more likely to be sensitive to the level of trading cost as well as the exchange-rate fluctuations.     

全球经济失衡下东亚区域政策选择

全球经济失衡是当前令人瞩目的现象,国际机构、政界和学界都给予高度重视。本文认为世界经济格局的变化是全球经济失衡的最直接原因。源于各国比较优势的国际化分工,按照传统的统计规则测算出来的全球经济失衡不仅可以维持,而且为世界经济带来了新的增长点,促进世界经济持续快速增长。然而,全球化收益分配不平衡应引起重视,美国凭借其知识优势和美元霸主地位,获取了较大收益,而发展中国家收益相对较少。为了扭转全球化收益分配的失衡,获得更多收益,东亚区域应积极行动起来。     

东亚区域经济合作的回顾与展望

区域经济合作与全球化已经成为当前世界经济发展的两大趋势.世界上绝大多数国家和地区都参加了不同形式的区域经济合作,签订了为数众多的区域贸易协定.由于种种原因,东亚地区的区域经济合作与其它地区相比,进程缓慢了一些,显得相对落后.但是进入新世纪以来,东亚区域经济合作的步子明显加快,参与的国家越来越多,合作的范围越来越广,可以说,东亚区域经济合作是当今世界上充满希望和最具活力的区域经济合作地区之一.     

Understanding India's Regional Initiatives with East and Southeast Asia

In recent years, India has concluded several bilateral and regional agreements with countries in East and Southeast Asia. This paper discusses four motivating factors underlying these initiatives: (i) the recognition by other Asian countries of India's growing importance as an investment and export market, as a supplier of manpower, and as a counterbalance to China's growing regional dominance; (ii) India's recognition of Asia's growing importance in the world economy; (iii) India's desire to prevent its marginalisation and to create a sphere of political and economic influence within East and Southeast Asia; and (iv) geo-political considerations such as securing energy interests, and addressing transport and connectivity concerns and long-term political and sub-regional stability objectives. India's approach to these integration efforts has been largely defensive and its future integration initiatives are likely to be more geo-political and strategic in nature.     

垂直分工、技术转移与东亚区域生产整合:中国视角

本文利用高度细分的贸易数据,在合理分类的基础上分析了中国在东亚区域生产中整合过程的国际分工地位和特点,以及中国高技术产品贸易对外资的高度依赖性,进而总结了东亚生产和贸易模式的变化和中国在新三角贸易中的主导作用。     

深化区域合作促进东亚经济协调发展

从深化合作的意义看,中日韩自由贸易区的建成和相对稳定,将可能使“10 3”自由贸易区成为未来东亚经济共同体的“主板模块”;在协调东亚经济共同整合方面,实现贸易自由化与产品标准化的紧密结合,变革生产组织方式等,亦是需探讨的课题。     

东亚区域性内需的潜力分析

国际金融危机之后,东亚经济体普遍面临着从出口主导向内需主导的发展方式转变的压力。然而,目前各经济体单独扩大内需存在困难,本文试图将东亚内需整合起来,探讨在东亚构建区域性内需。通过进一步提升消费水平、调整投资结构、扩大区域内贸易和完善产品结构,东亚内需的潜力将会被极大地开发出来,成为东亚持续发展新的推动力。     

浅层次易一体化:东亚区域经济合作新模式

以东亚为代表的异质结构成员间的区域一体化进程,不仅表现出制度协调的特征,同时体现出一段较长时期的基于垂直专业化分工的浅层次贸易一体化的阶段.贸易一体化是异质结构成员间区域经济合作的初级阶段,浅层次贸易一体化是贸易一体化的阶段之一,是东亚区域经济合作新的模式,建立区域生产网络是目前东亚进行浅层次贸易一体化,从而推进区域经济合作的主要形式.     

区域贸易协定的非传统收益:理论、评述及其在东亚的应用

区域贸易协定(RTAs)在数量、范围以及深度上的迅速发展是当今国际经济领域中的一个重要现象。对于RTAs大量涌现的原因,传统的国际经济一体化理论已不能很好地做出解释了。本文介绍了区域贸易协定的非传统收益理论,即区域贸易协定在保持政策的连贯性、发信号、提供保险、增强讨价还价能力、协调一致机制等方面为成员国带来的新的收益,并对该理论进行了简单评述。笔者认为,对于用传统国际经济理论所不能解释的现象,这种理论提供了新的视角,具有很强的解释力,但也存在着一些不足。另外,本文还运用区域贸易协定的非传统收益理论对东亚自由贸易区进行了分析。     

加强东亚区域合作 促进中日经济发展

中国、日本作为东亚的经济大国,应该在东亚经济发展的进程中起推动作用,并通过加强与东亚各国的合作促进中国经济的发展。在东亚经济区域合作的进程中,中国首先与日本的合作,这是东亚区域经济合作能否成功的关键。     

跨境生产分享与东亚地区一体化:中国的作用

本文考察了跨境生产分享对官方一体化的影响,结论是它促进了单一市场政策的实施,而不利于自由贸易区和关税同盟的建立。此外,市场导向的一体化降低了贸易对汇率变动的敏感度,对各国的汇率政策产生影响。文章还考察了中国在建立包含生产分享的地区一体化中的作用。     

Regional integration in East Asia. From market-driven regionalisation to institutionalised regionalism?

Conclusions The analyses have shown that ESACs unprecedented emergence in world trade and capital transactions has been accompanied by a growing share of intra-area transactions. At least for the goods sector, the evidence is clear. Intra-area transactions grew faster than those to the rest of world, and the latter rose faster than world trade. Given this “double growth” performance, there was no trade diversion in the static zero sum meaning. Driving forces of fast growing intra-area transactions were basically internal conditions, such as “natural” trading partnership (geographical and cultural proximity, size, and complementarity in resource endowment and production structure), rising income levels fostering intra-industry trade, the economic opening of China, and unilateral liberalisation of trade and capital transactions on a non-discriminatory basis. It cannot be denied that external factors as protectionism and recession in non-Asian OECD countries have also contributed to this performance. Yet, it seems safe to assume that even without the US and European recession in the early eighties and early nineties and without the spread on non-tariff barriers, intraarea transactions would have received sufficient fuels from the internal factors to grow more rapidly than transactions with the rest of the world.¹⁷ Furthermore, a base effect of a low initial level of intra-area trade cannot be neglected.     

区域性公共产品与东亚的功能性合作——日本的实践及其启示

区域性公共产品的供给和消费是分析东亚区域合作的一个理论新视角。自第二次世界大战结束以来,日本在不同阶段提供了各具形态的区域性公共产品,这成为日本促进东亚经济一体化和实现自身大国外交战略的核心途径之一。在日本国内,功能性合作被普遍视为构建东亚共同体的基本路径和关键内容,而区域性公共产品的供给则是开展功能性合作的重要方式。在东亚的区域合作中,亚洲各国既要珍惜传统友谊、政策宣示的积极作用,也要通过制度性建设和功能性的外溢、通过公共产品的供给和消费以及相互利益的交换和妥协等方式给予刚性支撑。在当下的东亚国际政治经济格局中,联合供给区域性公共产品和开展功能性合作是一种较为现实的政策选择。积极扮演区域性公共产品提供者的角色,有效促进东亚的区域经济合作成为二战后日本亚洲外交战略的重要组成部分。中国应该积极借鉴日本的成功经验,以共同供给区域性公共产品的形式进一步推进东亚区域合作。     

东亚金融体系变革与区域金融合作的深化

本文首先分析和评述了亚洲金融危机后东亚国家和地区的金融体系变革及其存在问题,在此基础上指出进一步深化东亚区域金融合作的必要性,并提出决定东亚区域金融合作深化的重要因素。     

Exchange rates,global imbalances,and interdependence in East Asia

The paper analyzes East Asian interdependence in the face of global imbalances. A macro-econometric multinational model is used, describing Korea, Japan, China and the rest of East Asia in their respective relations with the United States as well as with the rest of the world. US imbalances and their expected consequences, notably a depreciation of the dollar and the slowdown of US demand, have rather contrasted effects on East Asian economies, depending on relative magnitudes of the two components. Korea is more affected by the dollar depreciation while China is more exposed to the US slowdown. Japan, less open and less dependent on the US market, is less touched. The correction of East Asian exchange-rate misalignments, which have prevailed since the beginning of the 2000s, would badly affect East Asian economies if undertaken too abruptly. Lastly, the perspective of creating an area of stabilised exchange rates between won, yen and other currencies, organized either as a common currencies basket system or in a regime based on the ACU, is explored preliminarily. Sets of simulations comparing adjustment mechanisms between East Asian countries, with or without the possibility of monetary adjustment, illustrate the cost of precluding exchange-rate adjustments in the case of asymmetric demand shocks.     

The role of production fragmentation in international business cycle synchronization in East Asia

This paper analyzes factors contributing to the observed increase in international business cycle synchronization between eight East Asian developing countries and the major developed economies of Japan and the United States. To this end, a two-country dynamic general equilibrium (DGE) model is proposed which focuses on the role of production fragmentation among these countries. A key feature of the model is that it includes the trade in differentiated capital goods, which are added to the capital stock for production, and the technology embodied in these capital goods. The parameters of the model are calibrated using actual data of the countries included. Model simulations are conducted for two periods (1993–1997 and 1999–2005), before and after the Asian financial crisis, showing that the increase in business cycle synchronization can be attributed mainly to the growing fragmentation of production activities.     

Saving,investment and international capital mobility in East Asia

This paper estimates the degree of international capital mobility in East Asia using the saving–investment correlation originated in Feldstein and Horioka [Feldstein, M., Horioka, C., 1980. Domestic saving and international capital flows. Economic Journal 90, 314–329]. We apply the empirical method used in Kim [Kim, S.H., 2001. The saving–investment correlation puzzle is still a puzzle. Journal of International Money and Finance 20, 1017–1034] to control for cyclical effects in estimating a time-series saving–investment correlation of 10 Asian countries from 1980 to 2002. Our conclusion is that the saving–investment correlation in East Asia steadily decreases over time but is still higher than that of the OECD countries over all studied periods. These results are consistent with the fact that capital mobility in East Asia is lower than that in the OECD countries. In addition, regional saving and investment data demonstrate that investment in East Asia is largely financed by regional savings.     

Macroeconomic interdependence in East Asia

This paper analyzes macroeconomic interdependence among 10 Asian economies. In this connection, we decompose their macroeconomic activities (real GDP) into common and country-specific components using the Bai–Ng method (2004). Our results suggest first that both components are non-stationary and have permanent effects on their overall economy. Second, we find the relative importance of common factors in all countries in terms of their contribution to variations in real GDP. But evidence is also obtained for country-specific effects becoming increasingly important in countries like China in recent years. Therefore, if, for example, China is expected to grow at a fast pace in future, our findings imply that creation of a regional monetary union of these 10 countries needs to be held back until the Chinese economy has become more dominant in the region.