Climate change and its marginalizing effect on agriculture

The agriculture of some areas considered marginal in the EU agricultural context is being questioned due to its low productivity and growing dependence on economic aid programs Common Agricultural Policy (CAP). This study shows that climate change increases these areas marginalisation of since worsens crop growth conditions. The influence of climate change on the agricultural sector is analyzed using the Multicriteria Decision Paradigm with information provided by the Erosion-Productivity Impact Calculator (EPIC) and a General Circulation Model (GCM) as inputs for multicriteria mathematical programming models. The results obtained show climate change effects on the crop portfolio. Further results suggest that climate change effects are not only economics and environmental, reducing the suitable area for crops, but also social as it causes loss of jobs in the agricultural sector.     

Climate change implications for the catastrophe bonds market: An empirical analysis

Since their introduction in the mid-1990s, the return per unit of risk or multiple on catastrophe (cat) bonds has steadily declined. This paper investigates whether this pattern is consistent with the historical evolution of natural disaster risk, using average multiple figures over the period 1997–2017. Assessing the accuracy of cat bond pricing is important, since about 50% of outstanding risk capital in the cat bonds market is currently exposed to Atlantic hurricanes -a risk that global warming, among other disruptions, is found to enhance- and pension and mutual funds in European and other OECD countries currently own about 30% of the market. In this respect, while our findings suggest that falling multiples are primarily related to the Fed's expansionary monetary stance and to portfolio shift effects, we do also find evidence of significant undervaluation of global warming risk in the cat bonds market. This finding, also in light of the unfailing appetite of institutional investors for such securities, casts doubts over the sanity of the market and over cat bonds as suitable investment products for risk averse investors. Sounder investment opportunities might be found in the green bonds market, which allows for the funding of immediate investment in climate change mitigation too.     

Climate change, irrigation, and Israeli agriculture: Will warming be harmful?

This paper utilizes a Ricardian model to test the relationship between annual net revenues and climate across Israeli farms. The study finds that it is important to include the amount of irrigation water available to each farm in order to measure the response of farms to climate. With irrigation water omitted, the model predicts climate change is strictly beneficial. However, with water included, the model predicts that only modest climate changes are beneficial while drastic climate change in the long run will be harmful. Using the AOGCM Scenarios we show that farm net revenue is expected to increase. Although Israel has a relatively warm climate a mild increase in temperature is beneficial due to the ability to supply international markets with farm product early in the season.     

Climate change damage and the trace gas index issue

Efficient policies to control trace gas emissions require estimation of an appropriate exchange rate among these gases; i.e. the relative value of reducing emissions of each gas. A dynamic stock pollutant model is developed that considers damages associated with both non-climatic and climatic effects of the gases, differing atmospheric lifetimes of the gases, the discount rate, and non-linear damages. The index value and shadow value of control are estimated for carbon dioxide, carbon monoxide, methane, nitrous oxide and the 4 major chlorofluorocarbons (CFCs). The value of control for short-lived relative to long-lives gases is lower for low discount rates and quadratic compared with linear damages. The relative value of control for all gases falls relative to carbon dioxide if one considers the direct beneficial effects of carbon dioxide on agriculture. The general approach developed in the paper may have application for other environmental problems where multiple substances pose individual risks but also jointly contribute to a single risk.The views expressed in this document are solely those of the authors and do not reflect the views of the U.S. Department of Agriculture or the United States government.We would like to acknowledge the helpful comments and suggestions of Bruce Larson, Dick Brazee, and Jae Edmonds while taking full responsibility for any remaining errors.     

Determinants of technical change: Empirical evidence from Switzerland

The purpose of this paper is to analyse both theoretically and empirically those factors which underlay the—empirically observable—inter-industry differences in technical progress. At the theoretical level economists agree more and more that technical progress can be explained at the industry level ey the following three factors: 1. the technological opportunities, 2. the appropriability conditions, meaning the ability to capture and protect the results of technical innovations, and 3. the market demand conditions.The basic theoretical model was tested with the help of two sets of Swiss data. One set was made available by Swiss Federal Office of Statistics and consists of quantitative information on R&D expenditures, R&D personnel, total employment and sales figures for 124 (4-digit SIC) industries for the year 1986. The second set was derived from a survey I carried out in the summer of 1988. 940 industry experts were approached: 358 of them, or 38 percent, covering 127 industries, completed the questionnaire. The items on the questionnaire were related to the two supply-side determinants of technical progress—items 1. and 2. above. For the empirical specification of the theoretical model, technical progress (as the dependent variable) was measured by three indicators: an output indicator, representing the introduction rate of innovations since 1970; two input indicators, share of R&D expenditures in sales and share of R&D personnel in total employment. All data were aggregated at the industry level (4-digit SIC). Three equations were estimated individually, using the OLS, GLS and Tobit methods.     

Pricing beliefs: Empirical evidence from the implied cost of deposit insurance for Islamic banks

Using a large international sample of 348,899 year-firm observations covering 352 Islamic banks and 30,572 conventional banks in 213 countries over the 1999–2013 period, we estimate the deposit insurance premiums of Islamic banks and conventional banks. We find that the premiums for publicly listed Islamic banks are 28% lower than those for publicly listed conventional banks. Moreover, we show that the premiums of privately held banks are significantly higher than those of publicly listed banks. Finally, we show that publicly listed Islamic banks did not record an increase in the level of deposit insurance premiums during the 2007–2009 financial crisis.     

Potential socio-economic implications of future climate change and variability for Nigerien agriculture: A countrywide dynamic CGE-Microsimulation analysis

This study explores the potential economic and social effects induced by a possible future deterioration of weather conditions on Niger's agriculture. Our scenarios over a 25 year period rely on both long term climate change deterministic features and climate variability stochastic features which take into account a higher than normal frequency of severe droughts. Using a microsimulated Dynamic Recursive Computable General Equilibrium model, we show how a long run mean decrease in main crop yields could adversely affect growth, poverty and food security in the country and how more severe drought would worsen these negative effects. However, we also show that there would appear to be some room for manœuvre for coping strategies for Niger such as improving the rural road network, adopting modern crop varieties or, to a lesser extent, extending irrigation capacity.     

Total factor productivity and the propagation of shocks: Empirical evidence and implications for the business cycle

Using a robust sign restrictions approach, we study the response of total factor productivity (TFP) to structural shocks in a VAR framework. We find that TFP increases in response to adverse supply, demand, and wage mark-up shocks. Results for monetary policy shocks are insignificant. Following an adverse technology shock and reductions in government spending, TFP declines. Overall, we conclude that TFP fluctuates endogenously over the business cycle, a feature of the data that is not present in standard DSGE models.     

Empirical and public choice evidence for hyperbolic social discount rates and the implications for intergenerational discounting

The derivation of the correct discount rate for intergenerational projects in Cost Benefit Analysis is particularly contentious. Public choice has resulted in lower discretionary exponential discount rates for many intergenerational projects in Britain and the USA. This is shown to be strong indirect evidence that the true social discount rate may be a hyperbolic (rather than an exponential) function. There is also empirical evidence for this hypothesis. The hyperbolic nature of discounting is also a standard finding in the behavioural sciences. For intergenerational time frames hyperbolic discount rates should be employed together with exponential discount rates in cost-benefit sensitivity analyses.Sincere thanks to Maureen Cropper and Paul Portney for supplying their survey results and to Elaine Barrow and Phillip Judge for graphics assistance. Two anonymous referees also provided valuable comments.     

Climate reversals and the transition to agriculture

The transition to agriculture is generally acknowledged to be the economic foundation for population growth over the last 10,000 years and for modern civilization itself. Dates for pristine transitions to agriculture have become a key input into empirical work on economic growth over the very long run. We propose a model of the transition in which population and technology respond endogenously to climate. The available data on the southwest Asian case, other cases of pristine transition, and cases of non-transition are consistent with our model, but often inconsistent with rival explanations. In addition, our theory of the origins of agriculture has implications for instrumental variable strategies that can be used in empirical research on long run economic growth and development.      

Liquidity risk and bank portfolio management in a financial system without deposit insurance: Empirical evidence from prewar Japan

Using data from prewar Japan, this paper investigates the impact of a liquidity shock induced by depositors' behavior on bank portfolio management during financial crises in a system lacking deposit insurance. It is found that banks reacted to the liquidity shock sensitively through an increase in their cash holdings not by liquidating bank loans but by selling securities in the financial market. Moreover, banks exposed to local financial contagion adjusted the liquidity of their portfolio mainly by actively selling and buying their securities in the financial market. Finally, there is no evidence to conclude that the existence of the lender of last resort mitigated the liquidity constraints in bank portfolio adjustments.     

The impacts of energy insecurity on household welfare in Cambodia: Empirical evidence and policy implications

This study investigates the impacts of energy insecurity on household welfare in Cambodia. The notion of energy insecurity is not well understood in the literature as well as in local contexts. This study defines household energy insecurity as the status quo derived from the interplay of inadequate and insufficient energy consumption that prevents households from meeting basic energy needs. The notion of energy insecurity can only be well understood by investigation in the local context as it varies from place to place. Households facing insufficient energy consumption may forgo many other opportunities. Once energy security has been defined in the Cambodian context, the study employs multiple regression models using the Cambodia Socio-Economic Survey Data (2015) to investigate the impacts of household energy insecurity. The study confirmed that energy insecurity has enormous negative impact on welfare of the households, with a further negative impact on the human capital formation of the children. The findings will lead to policy implications to improve household energy security, and thus impact economic, social, and environmental development.     

Functions of innovation systems as a framework to understand sustainable technological change: Empirical evidence for earlier claims

Understanding the emergence of innovation systems is recently put central in research analysing the process of technological change. Especially the key activities that are important for the build up of an innovation system receive much attention. These are labelled ‘functions of innovation systems’. This paper builds on five empirical studies, related to renewable energy technologies, to test whether the functions of innovation systems framework is a valid framework to analyse processes of technological change. We test the claim that a specific set of functions is suitable. We also test the claim made in previous publications that the interactions between system functions accelerate innovation system emergence and growth. Both claims are confirmed.     

Instrument choice : Empirical implications and analysis

A neglected consequence of instrument choice is that standard regression approaches are invalid in macroeconomic research. Analysis accommodating policy objective and reaction functions yields non-technical solutions to this problem. Exploratory empirical analysis undertaken has implications for monetary targetting strategies.     

The newer antipsychotics: evidence for cost-effectiveness and policy implications

SUMMARY

The current reluctance in some health authorities to provide full funding for the use of the new generation of antipsychotics is not in the best interests of patients or the National Health Service. Schizophrenia is a complex and costly disease, which relies too much on hospital care because of funding shortages elsewhere.

New research attitudes are required to assist health policy decisions. Economic evaluations using evidence solely from randomised controlled trials (RCTs) are insufficient and give a partial and potentially misleading picture. The complexity of the illness and its outcomes in schizophrenia as well as the social influences on hospital admission and discharge exaggerate methodological difficulties arising from the nature of RCTs. The long-term, relapsing nature of the disease in many patients means that long-term evidence must be considered from non-randomised observational studies.

This paper discusses recent reviews and major publications in order to examine the economic arguments for newer atypicals as a class. The economic data published to date consistently suggest that these newer agents should not increase the direct costs of treating schizophrenia and may in fact reduce them. As there are undoubted patient benefits, not least a reduction in side effects, especially extrapyramidal symptoms (EPS) with the potential to improve compliance and reduce relapse, the range of atypicals might be made available and the clinician allowed to make a choice based on clinical not economic grounds.

The funding of these newer agents, although they are ultimately of benefit to patients and to the NHS, stretches already sparse resources. The likely freeing up of beds previously blocked by patients on older 'conventional' treatments will allow them to be used by those patients who currently escape the net. This will further increase funding requirements as more patients present for treatment. There are ethical, clinical and political grounds for increasing funding for the treatment of schizophrenia to take advantage of the biggest revolution in antipsychotic therapy since the launch of the first neuroleptics.     

Crises and structural change in Australian agriculture

We present a model of structural change in the farming sector in which natural and economic crises decrease farmers’ work satisfaction, farm profitability, and the decision to stay in farming. Using data from the Australian Regional Well-being survey, activity choice modeling, and a structural equation approach, we test the hypothesis that these crises-induced effects then cause structural change in Australian agriculture. We find that external shocks, such as drought or economic downturn, negatively affect farmers’ welfare, which in turn causes structural change through revised activity choices. Our empirical findings also indicate that specific adjustment strategies such as buying additional water titles or reducing input use are insufficient to mitigate adverse crises effects.     

Average-cost pricing: Some evidence and implications

We present new survey evidence on pricing behavior for more than 14,000 European firms, and study its macroeconomic implications. Among firms that are price setters, roughly 75% respond that their prices are set as a markup on total costs, a business practice termed “full cost pricing”. Only 25% set prices as markups over variable or marginal costs. Moreover, using industry data for the U.S., we find that the correlation between changes in output prices and changes in variable input prices is significantly lower when fixed costs are likely to be more important.Since our results are similar to the findings in the classic and controversial paper of Hall and Hitch (1939) and subsequent survey evidence, we believe it worth studying the implications of full cost pricing for macroeconomics. We first propose a problem for the firm where full cost pricing can arise as optimizing behavior. We embed this problem, featuring an occasionally binding constraint, into a simple general equilibrium model. We show that when the model is hit by a shock that makes the constraint binding, the response of endogenous variables is amplified significantly more than it would be under the unconstrained regime.     

Climate change mitigation options and directed technical change: A decentralized equilibrium analysis

The paper considers an endogenous growth model with climate change as well as three R&D sectors dedicated to energy, CCS (Carbon Capture and Storage) and backstop efficiency. First, we characterize the set of decentralized equilibria: a particular equilibrium is associated with any vector of policy instruments including a carbon tax and a subsidy to each R&D sector. Second, we show that it is possible to express any equilibrium as the solution of a maximization program. Third, we solve the first-best optimum problem and thereby deriving the optimal instruments. Finally, we illustrate the theoretical model using calibrated functional specifications. In particular, we investigate the effects of various combinations of policy instruments (including the optimal ones) by determining the deviation of each corresponding equilibrium from the “laisser-faire” benchmark. We find notably that introducing an R&D subsidy hardly affects emissions when a carbon tax is already implemented, thus revealing a complementary effect between these two policy instruments.     

Climate change and economic growth: An intertemporal general equilibrium analysis for Egypt

This study advances the state of the art in country-level computable general equilibrium analysis for climate change impact and adaptation analysis by incorporating forward-looking expectations. The analytic framework is used to explore the long-run growth prospects for Egypt in a changing climate. Based on a review of existing estimates of climate change impacts on agricultural productivity, labour productivity and the potential losses due to sea-level rise for the country, the model is used to simulate the effects of climate change on aggregate consumption, investment and income up to 2050. Available cost estimates for adaptation investments are employed to explore adaptation strategies.The simulation analysis suggests that in the absence of policy-led adaptation investments, real GDP towards the middle of the century will be 6.5% lower than in a hypothetical baseline without climate change. A combination of adaptation measures, that include coastal protection investments for vulnerable sections along the low-lying Nile delta, support for changes in crop management practices and investments to raise irrigation efficiency, could reduce the GDP loss in 2050 to around 2.6%.Further work along these lines for developing countries in climate change hotspot regions deserves a high priority on the research agenda in economic modelling.     

Culture and the demand for non-life insurance: Empirical evidences from middle-income and high-income economies*

This paper investigates the impact of culture on non-life insurance expenditure using a panel dataset covering 27 middle-income countries and 40 high-income countries in the period 1980–2014. Based on the two-step system GMM estimator, it is found that several cultural dimensions such as masculinity, uncertainty avoidance and power distance significantly explain the spending on non-life insurance in middle-income countries, while masculinity is the only cultural factor that significantly explains spending on non-life insurance in high-income countries. Traditional drivers of the demand for non-life insurance, such as per capita income, economic freedom and urbanization, also behave differently comparing between the two income-based groups of countries. These findings provide useful recommendations for business firms and policymakers around the world, especially transitional economies, to promote and sustain the development of the non-life insurance sector, which is an important engine for growth and prosperity.