浅析人民币升值对中国经济的影响

截至2007年12月28日,人民币对美元汇率中间价已升至1美元兑换7.3046元人民币,比年初升值超过6%,2005年7月汇改以来已累计升值约10%.人民币升值对中国经济究竟会产生怎样的影响?本文通过人民币汇率改革对经济影响的分析,提出了应对策略,并认为人民币大幅升值将不利于我国经济的长期发展.     

人民币升值，地产商喜忧参半

作为人民币升值的配套措施,政府极有可能投注更多的精力落实和巩固房地产新政7月22日,中坤集团董事长黄怒波定了回北京的最早一班飞机,“赶回去和集团高层开会,商量一下人民币升值后集团的策略要怎么调整。”严阵以待的肯定不只是黄怒波一人,在7月22日,人民币升值2%的第二天, 万科等房地产公司“人民币升值的媒体答复”已经发送到记者的信箱, 海通证券、平安证券的相关研究报告已经传播在业内人士手中。从理论上讲,一国货币的升值一     

人民币升值影响FDI流入的实证分析

2005年7月21日,中国人民银行发布人民币汇率形成机制改革公告:调整人民币汇率水平,人民币对美元升值2%。那么此次央行公开发布人民币升值会如何影响我国的外商直接投资呢?本文先讨论我国汇率制度和外商投资企业在我国的生产经营特点,然后构建计量经济学模型分析人民币升值会给我国外资企业的利润以至我国FDI流入带来哪些方面的影响及影响的程度。     

加息! 加息？

通胀、经济过热以及人民币升值等因素叠加,在4月数据CPI接近年度3%底线之后,加息与否再次成为议论的焦点。     

投资美元资产看上去挺美

4月14日,美元兑人民币即期汇率收盘报6.2191,和去年底605的水平相比,人民币贬值幅度为2．8％,接近2013年全年的升值水平。这一阶段的贬值,让一些使用高杠杆压注人民币升值的外汇投资者遭遇了滑铁卢,也打破了长时间以来人民币“单边升值”的预期。与此同时。原本少人问津的美元理财热度悄然攀升。不少投资者想知道：人民币贬值之后,手中的人民币资产可能面临价值“缩水”,是否应该买入一些美元资产以分散风险？     

浅析目前我国人民币汇率升值对外贸的影响

自2005年7月21日起,我国开始实行浮动汇率制度,并且小幅升值2%。人民币升值对中国各行各业都产生深远的影响。本文首先分析了人民币汇率形成机制改革的原因,然后分别从进口和出口方面深入分析人民币升值对我国外贸的影响,最后从政府和企业两个层面提出了几点对策,以缓解人民币升值所带来的负面影响。     

人民币升值趋势缘何放缓

自2005年7月人民币汇率制度改革以来,人民币开始了持续的升值进程,在3年多的时间里,人民币升值幅度达19％左右,呈现出一种一发不可收拾的趋势。但是自2008年7月16日以来,人民币对美元汇率的升值趋势发生明显的变化（见图1）,至8月18日以前的交易日,竞出现罕见的连续下行,人民币对美元中间价从7月16日的681．28：100贬至8月18日的686．65：100,     

汇改面临新窗口

2012年11月至今年5月,人民币累计升值7.8%,这对出口企业形成了巨大的压力。可期的是6月以来升值预期骤降今年上半年,人民币是全球表现最强劲的货币之一。截至6月底,人民币对美元升值1.5%,而同期其它大部分货币对美元均出现贬值。从宏观经济表现看,这一轮人民币升值并不具备基本面的支持。中国经济同比增速在一季度回落到7.7%,而按季环比增速仅为1.6%,是2009年以来的新低。与汇率更为相关的外贸表现也不容乐观。更可能的一个解释是,最近人民币     

关于人民币升值与物价上涨联动效应的思考

美国政府为了让人民币升值采取各种措施，在各种场合向中国施压。而人民币与美元的汇率也在不断提高，从2005的100美元兑换800多元人民币提高到近期的100美元兑换人民币700多元。这样看来，人民币确实是升值了，我们腰包里的钱应该可以购买更多的商品了。可是事实却恰恰相反。2005年7月21日，中国人民银行发布公告，自2005年7月21日起，我国开始实行以市场供求为基础、参考一篮币进行调节、有管理的浮动汇率制度。人民币汇率不再盯住单一美元，形成更富弹性的人民币汇率机制。2005年7月22日。人民币对美元汇率中间价就由827．56升值到811。至此人民币开始了持续的升值进程。截至2008年3月28日，人民币对美元汇率中间价为701．37，不到3年的时间。人民币升值幅度在18％左右。而在人民币升值的同时。我国的物价也在持续地上涨。     

人民币贬值之惑

在升值8年后突然贬值,人民币出现了什么新状况?从2005年开始,人民币兑美元汇率累计上升了30%。当人们已经将"人民币升值"这一趋势认定为常态之时,今年5月,故事突然改变戏路,阔别已久的"人民币贬值"粉墨登场。对于人民币的贬值,究竟是日波幅调整后的滞后反应,还是人民币存在高估的情况而进行的自我修正?人民币的未来将如何前进?市场各方对此看法显现强烈分歧。     

人民币实际有效汇率的分解和马歇尔—勒纳条件的修正

马歇尔-勒纳条件是探讨货币贬值改善贸易收支的规律,本文根据人民币实际有效汇率的特点,把它分解为美元有效汇率和人民币对美元汇率之积形式,在此基础之上,本文重新考察货币贬值改善贸易收支的条件,对传统的马歇尔-勒纳条件进行修正。从我们研究中可以看出美元实际有效汇率变化对马歇尔-勒纳条件修正的重要作用,这包括美元有效汇率对人民币汇率弹性和人民币在美元有效汇率中的权重的两种影响。另一方面,即使人民币实际有效汇率贬值存在“J”曲线效应,人民币对美元实际汇率贬值,“J”曲线是否存在还要依赖一定的条件。本文实证研究结果显示出口（或进口）与人民币对美元实际汇率、美元实际有效汇率指数和外国收入（或国内收入）之间存在着显著的协整关系,美元实际有效汇率和人民币对美元实际汇率也存在显著的协整关系。从弹性的变化来看,修正的马歇尔-勒纳条件成立,同时人民币对美元实际汇率贬值有利于改善贸易收支,美元实际有效汇率贬值会恶化中国贸易收支。而对“J”曲线效应的实证研究显示无论是人民币实际有效汇率,还是人民币对美元实际汇率贬值和美元实际有效汇率贬值,我国“J”曲线效应均不显著。     

Co-movement between RMB and New Taiwan Dollars: Evidences from NDF markets

This paper investigates the comovement and tail dependence between Chinese Yuan and New Taiwan Dollar non-delivery forward (NDF) rates against the U.S. dollar. We adopt the copula modeling approach to capture dynamics of correlation and tail dependence between two NDF rates. It is shown that the interdependence between two NDF rates strengthens as time elapses. In particular, the degree of correlation surges sharply after April 9, 2008 while the degree of tail dependence increases significantly after February 10, 2009. Each time point of change is shown to be close to economic and political events that are supposed to have a large impact on the relationship between Chinese Yuan and New Taiwan Dollar.     

人民币汇率:缓解升值压力,加快制度改革

近一段时间人民币汇率在内外因的共同作用下升值压力巨大,盯住美元的固定汇率制度已经不符合当前中国的经济形势,但是完全放开人民币汇率让其自由浮动在现有条件下也是行不通的,以市场供求为基础的有管理的浮动汇率制度才是目前的最佳选择。     

Forecasting risk in the US Dollar exchange rate under volatility shifts

Recent evidence suggests that volatility shifts (i.e. structural breaks in volatility) in returns increases kurtosis which significantly contributes to the observed non-normality in market returns. In this paper, we endogenously detect significant shifts in the volatility of US Dollar exchange rate and incorporate this information to estimate Value-at-Risk (VaR) to forecast large declines in the US Dollar exchange rate. Our out-of-sample performance results indicate that a GARCH model with volatility shifts produces the most accurate VaR forecast relative to several benchmark methods. Our contribution is important as changes in US Dollar exchange rate have a substantial impact on the global economy and financial markets.     

The dynamic relationship between stock,bond and foreign exchange markets

This paper investigates whether the deviation of a currency from its fundamentally determined rate of return affects the relationship between interest rates and stock market yields. A time-varying transition probability, the Markov-switching vector autoregressive (MS-VAR) model, is utilized for this purpose. Wald and likelihood ratio tests are computed and used as model adequacy measures. In order to analyze the link between the variables, impulse–response functions are employed. A sticky price exchange rate model is used to show the fundamentally determined rate of return of currencies. States are defined as either overvalued or undervalued, depending on the position of the observed exchange rate compared to its fundamentally determined rate. The model is applied to four major currencies: the Australian Dollar, the Canadian Dollar, the Japanese Yen, and the British Pound. Transition between the states is linked to the risk-adjusted excess return (the Sharpe ratio) of the debt and equity markets of the respective currencies in order to understand whether over- and undervaluation is connected to the returns in these markets. The results provide evidence that the relationship between economic fundamentals and nominal exchange rates are subject to change depending on the over- or undervaluation of the currencies relative to their fundamentally determined rate of return. An extension of this result shows that the Sharpe ratios of debt and equity investments in the currencies influence the evolution of the transitional dynamics of the exchange rates’ deviation from their fundamental values.     

人民币汇率增加弹性和参考一篮子货币汇率形成机制研究

在央行货币政策目标下,可以确定最优汇率水平及汇率水平的调整。我国外汇体制改革要建立以市场供求为基础的,参考一篮子货币的有管理的浮动汇率制度,央行的汇率目标应由人民币对美元稳定转变为参考人民币有效汇率目标,确保人民币币值的总体水平稳定。实际上,参考篮子货币,人民币对美元汇率的弹性将显著增加。央行应逐步放宽人民币对美元和非美元货币的波动幅度,人民币汇率最终将由市场供求来决定,发挥汇率配置资源的基础作用。     

Crucial exchange rate parity. Evidence for Mexico

Through a structural vector error correction model, one restricted cointegrating relationship for monthly data (1999.01–2012.04) was found between three exchange parities of great relevance for the Mexican economy: US Dollar–Euro, Mexican Peso–US Dollar, and Mexican Peso–Euro. The data's structure revealed endogeneity of the last one, but the first is the one that adjusts the long run (cointegrating) relation. A unitary elasticity of MxP–Euro parity to the other two parities was found, which validates PPP condition in absolute terms. These results are crucial to analyze the possible long run exchange effects on the Mexican real and financial variables because of the possible intensification of the Euro crisis and the currency war.     

分形市场中的汇率协整关系

本文将混沌与分形运用到汇率研究中,运用R/S方法研究了外汇收益率的长记忆性,并将传统的协整理论推广到广义的分数维协整,研究了时间序列之间的长期均衡关系,并以外汇市场中的欧元和新加坡元兑美元的汇率为例进行了实证分析,指出这两种货币收益率服从分形分布,具有相同的分整阶数且二者存在分数维协整关系。     

What is the Chance of Yuan Revaluation?

From a Chinese perspective, chances of any change in the Yuan exchange rate look pretty slim. If you were an official in Beijing, would you stick your neck out even recommending this idea? If the status quo looks fairly acceptable, and it is ‘stability oriented’ (a very Chinese preference), why go rocking the boat? You certainly do not make any changes just because Japan or the US tell you to. And financial markets are not that persuasive – after all they wanted a devaluation only a short while ago. In this article, Vanessa Rossi and Simon Knapp assess the likelihood of a Yuan revaluation and its implications for the economic outlook.     

A fractional cointegration var analysis of exchange rate dynamics

In their seminal work, Baillie and Bollerslev (1994) carried out an analysis of deviations from the cointegrating relationship of seven important exchange rates. They suggested that the exchange rate series possess long memory and therefore such processes could be well described as fractionally integrated processes. Hence, the influence of shocks to the equilibrium exchange rates may only vanish at very long horizons. In this work we analyze the cointegrating structure of five exchange rates to the US dollar, namely the British pound, the Euro, the Swedish Krona, the Canadian Dollar and the Swiss Franc. The series possess long memory and we show that they can be modeled through fractional integration. In fact, standard cointegration is rejected with the more traditional Johansen CVAR methodology. By using the recently introduced Fractionally Cointegrated VAR by Johansen and Nielsen (2012) we provide a cointegrating relationship taking into account fractional integration.