基于相关性模型的鄱阳湖生态经济区物流产业发展分析

通过对鄱阳湖生态经济区物流产业发展、GDP与货运周转量和物流产业产值与GDP三个角度进行定量分析,实证了鄱阳湖生态经济区物流产业发展对区域经济主体的带动作用,对实现鄱阳湖生态经济区域物流、经济协调发展具有一定的指导价值。     

中国中西部农村电信发展水平分析——以河南省为例

本文对河南省109个县（市）农村电信发展指标以及当地相关经济指标进行了相关性分析、回归分析和弹性分析。研究表明，农村电信发展水平与GDP、人均纯收入、人口和非农业产值比例等指标存在正相关关系。影响农村电信业务总量的因素依次是人均纯收入、人口、GDP等，影响农村电话普及率的因素依次是人均纯收入、非农业产值比例等。中国电信市场发展不平衡，导致在城乡之间呈现二元结构的特征，农村电信市场发展对人均纯收入增长的依赖性较强。     

粮食流通与现代化物流

物流热的需求之源我国生产力发展水平的要求。美国商务部运输报告称:1990-1999年物流成本占GDP总值的比重由11%下降到10%,甚至9.9%;日本物流业产值占GDP的14%,英国占12%。有关调查报告指出:我国目前与物流相关的年总支出有19000亿元人民币,物流成本占GDP的比重为20%左右。我国目前每万元GDP产生的运输量为4972吨公里,而美国和日本的这一指标分别为870吨公里和700吨公里。以美国每年10万亿美元的经济规摸计算,相当于增加1000亿美元的经济效益。我国经济规模现在是1万亿美元,降低1%的物流成本意味着增长了100亿美元的经济效益。由上述对…     

“一带一路”背景下“河南造”农产品跨境电商物流发展现状及其优化

发挥河南省"一带一路"重要节点的区位优势,深入研究国际贸易新模式,探索出口新渠道,助推食品农产品出口,是在"一带一路"战略背景下河南省现代农业发展的重大现实需求。推动跨境电子商务物流体系建设,河南省具有相对明显的区位优势、制度优势和平台优势。结合"一带一路"战略对河南省发展农产品跨境电子商务的机遇和需求,河南省跨境电商物流应优化国际物流枢纽体系建设、优化冷链物流服务能力建设、优化海外仓储物流服务设施建设、优化跨境电商物流追溯体系建设、优化跨境电商物流企业发展环境。     

河南省农产品冷链物流发展现状分析

农产品在运输过程中的安全问题是物流运输中的关键环节,因此发展农产品冷链物流意义重大。首先分析了发展农产品冷链物流的重要意义,接着分析了河南省农产品冷链物流发展的现状、存在的问题及面临的形势,最后提出了河南省冷链物流发展的对策。     

“十四五”时期河南省粮食物流发展SWOT分析及展望

粮食物流体系的现代化建设是国家四化建设中的重要一环，对于新时代下保障粮食安全具有重大意义。河南省作为全国十三个粮食主产区之一，在保障粮食安全方面负有重要的责任，发展现代粮食物流迫在眉睫。本文通过SWOT分析，从优势、劣势、机遇和挑战四个方面对河南省“十三五”时期粮食物流发展的现状进行评价分析，在此基础上从粮食物流通道、粮食物流创新和粮食物流安全三个方面对“十四五”时期河南省粮食物流体系建设提出展望。     

河南省林业产业结构对林业产业发展的影响分析

利用灰色关联分析法,对河南省2010年-2014年间的林业三次产业产值与林业总产值及其林业三次产业内部各产业产值与林业三次产业产值进行关联度进行计算,以计算结果为依据分别对河南省林业三产及其内部产业进行了全面的分析,提出了河南省林业产业应通过提高林地利用效率发展林业第一产业、以科技全面带动林业第二产业、发挥林业景观资源特点促进林业第三产业等建议措施。     

东莞市第三产业对GDP增长贡献实证分析

根据2003～2013年东莞市第三产业对GDP增长贡献统计数据分析发现：第三产业已经成为东莞市国民经济的重要组成部分。通过OLS（最小二乘法）统计结果表明：东莞市第三产业每增加1元的产值,GDP增长平均增加1.962元的产值。东莞市第三产业每增长一个百分点,GDP增长率平均增加0.34个百分点。同时,通过对第三产业细分并进行行业分析,发现东莞市第三产业行业构成中租赁、商务服务业、批发零售业、房地产业、金融业具有重要的贡献,据此提出相应的行业发展和扶持政策建议。     

基于多元线性回归的云南省经济发展影响因素分析

以2007—2016年云南省经济发展基本数据为基础,根据云南省经济发展的实际情况,对促进其经济增长的各因素进行多元线性回归分析。回归分析结果显示,第一产业产值、第三产业产值和财政支出占GDP的比重等3个因素,对云南省人均GDP和经济总量增长有很大影响。根据分析结果,提出了云南省经济发展对策,以供参考。     

河南省农产品冷链物流发展对策研究

随着人民消费水平的提高,河南省作为农业大省,农产品冷链物流的重要性日益凸显。本文阐述了农产品冷链物流涵义,对河南省农产品冷链物流现状进行分析,发现发展中存在的问题,进而提出对策建议。     

Price transmission between products at different stages of manufacturing in forest industries

The theory of demand and supply implies a positive relationship, or “price transmission” between the prices of products at different stages of manufacturing. This relationship was investigated with quarterly prices of softwood stumpage in the US South, and national prices of forest products, from 1977 to 2002. All prices, net of inflation, were found to be nonstationary and there was no evidence of co-integration between prices. Vector autogressive models, augmented by Granger causality tests and multiplier analysis showed that there was a one-to-one permanent positive response of the southern sawtimber stumpage price to a permanent change in the national lumber price. There was also a one-third permanent positive response of the national paper price to a permanent change in the national pulp price. There was no relation between regional pulpwood prices and national pulp or paper prices. When price transmission was significant, the full adjustment took about 2 years.     

Application of an ecosystem function framework to perceptions of community woodlands

Owners, local residents, government, and conservation organisations can express divergent preferences in the development and management of local woodlands. The perceptions of these four groups were examined, in the context of three community woodlands in Eastern England, using an ecosystem function framework. In a pilot study, residents were able to allocate a relative importance to woodland ecosystem services which were then related to “regulation”, “habitat”, and “production” or “information” functions. However residents also placed importance on negative services or “dis-services” associated with the woodland ecosystem. Therefore a fifth category of “dis-services” was included in the main survey which included 84 local residents, three woodland owners, three government institutions, and six representatives from conservation groups. Each of the four groups placed greatest importance on services associated with habitat (16–39% of the total importance) and information (30–50%) functions suggesting, in this example, mutual interest in the use of woodlands as a habitat or recreational resource. By contrast a potential area of difference was the particularly high importance placed by one owner on dis-services such as fly tipping. In addition the woodland owners placed higher importance (10–20%), than local residents and conservation groups (7–9%), on the productive services of the wood. This suggests a need for communication when production-related operations affect recreation. The ecosystem function framework appears to be a useful approach for highlighting potential tensions and areas of mutual interest in the management of semi-natural ecosystems.     

In Vino ‘No’ Veritas: impacts of fraud on wine imports in China

China is one of the largest wine importing countries in the world and is poised for continued import growth in the future. Increased wine purchases throughout China have given rise to persistent fraud where fake wines are packaged and sold with counterfeit contents and labels. For exporting countries like France, counterfeit wines displace market share, damage foreign brand reputation, and cause distrust in consumers who are aware of counterfeiting problems throughout the country. We examine the impact of fraudulent wine events (as measured by negative media reports) on Chinese wine demand differentiated by supplying country. We employ the Rotterdam demand system and a switching regression procedure to estimate import demand and compare results across different media variable specifications. Results consistently show that negative reports disproportionately affect French wine regardless of how the media variable is specified. This is not surprising because most fraudulent events involve French wine counterfeits.     

An evaluation framework for earthquake-responsive land administration

In recent years earthquakes and their secondary hazards have claimed the largest number of lives of all large natural disasters. Some of the world’s most earthquake-prone zones are also areas of high population density. The impact is magnified by vulnerability factors including non-enforcement of building codes, knowledge gaps, urban poverty and poor governance capacity to manage and reduce earthquake risks. Poor security of land tenure and property rights increases the vulnerability of people and affects their ability to respond to natural disasters.Earthquake recovery and reconstruction provides very significant challenges for land agencies, with these challenges differing from one country to the next due to differences in the local context. Drawing on contrasting case studies in Haiti, Nepal and New Zealand this paper identifies the common post-earthquake land administration functions and challenges that may apply to many contexts. These lessons provide land agencies and other key stakeholders with a summary of the challenges an earthquake poses for land administration at different post-disaster stages. We also discuss the policy and regulatory, institutional, operational and preparedness lessons for land administration. From these lessons we propose a framework for evaluating the earthquake-responsiveness of a land administration system. This framework can be used by a land agency in an earthquake prone region, or where an earthquake has recently occurred, to assess what challenges to land administration might occur in the event of an earthquake, and the preparedness of their land administration system.     

Agrarian Poverty,Nutrition and Economic Class – A Study of Gujarat,India

This paper analyses poverty and calorific undernourishment in the Indian state of Gujarat, where high and market‐led industrial growth has resulted in rapid economic improvement. The study is carried out through a combination of secondary and survey‐based data. We conclude that the neoliberal agenda of uncontrolled, outward‐looking growth has not resulted in significant reduction of poverty or malnourishment in rural areas. Furthermore, while land ownership is officially used as a proxy for wealth distribution, class position appears a better predictor of poverty status in the rural areas than landownership per se. At the policy level, there is a need to revive the agrarian economy and create new non‐agricultural assets, and the primary focus in the state must shift to the distribution of created assets rather than a single‐minded focus on growth.     

Does sustainable agricultural growth require a system of innovation? Evidence from Ghana and Burkina Faso

This paper tests the ‘systems of innovation’ hypothesis for a selection of crops in Ghana and Burkina Faso that have shown significant growth in production over an approximately 20-year period. The question is whether such growth can only occur if supported by a system of innovation. Using two indicators (a common understanding on objectives and priorities, and a high level of interactivity), we find little evidence for the existence of anything that might be considered a high functioning system of innovation.     

Local impacts of industrial tree plantations: An empirical analysis in Indonesia across plantation types

The values ascribed to industrial tree plantations are often controversial. Hence knowledge of their perceived impacts is important for improving their integration in rural landscapes. In 2016 we conducted household surveys with 606 respondents living in villages adjacent to acacia, teak and pine plantations across three islands in Indonesia (Java, Borneo, Sumatra). Results show that perceptions toward pine and teak plantations tend to differ from those toward acacia pulpwood plantations in several ways. Pine and teak plantations are perceived to have a higher number and variety of benefits and services, a higher number of positive impacts, a better environmental record, and to present more opportunities to local people for use of plantation land and products for improving rural livelihoods. In addition, we find that villagers around acacia pulpwood plantations tend to seek economic development and infrastructure to open up remote areas, yet their expectations were often only partially met. Recommendations from our analysis include: the role of the State in plantations must be clarified and potentially reinforced; the role of institutions as intermediaries is fundamental; and contributions by communities to design of management plans should be accommodated.     

土地学科的建设和发展——"土地学科发展规划研讨会"综述

中国土地科学学科发展已取得很大成就,表现为专业教育和人才培养成绩突出、初步形成学科体系、取得大批研究成果.而存在的问题主要是基础理论研究欠缺、独特的土地科学研究方法体系尚未形成、研究角度单一、学术交流质量不高和学科带头人的影响力不足.土地科学学科发展目前面临着巨大的机遇和挑战,应明确土地科学学科发展的基本思路、发展目标及2010-2020年的主要建设任务和保障措施.     

Upstream demand for water use by new tree plantations imposes externalities on downstream irrigated agriculture and wetlands*

Large‐scale tree plantations in high rainfall upstream areas can reduce fresh water inflows to river systems, thereby imposing external costs on downstream irrigation, stock and domestic water users and wetland interests. We take the novel approach of expressing all benefits and costs of establishing plantations in terms of $ per gigalitre (GL) of water removed annually from river flows, setting upstream demands on the same basis as downstream demands. For the Macquarie Valley, a New South Wales sub‐catchment of Australia’s Murray‐Darling Basin, we project changes in land and water use and changes in economic surpluses under two policy settings: without and with a policy requiring permanent water entitlements to be purchased from downstream parties, before plantation establishment. Without the policy, and given a high stumpage value for trees ($70/m³), upstream gains in economic surplus projected from expanding plantations are $639 million; balanced against $233 million in economic losses by downstream irrigators and stock and domestic water users for a net gain of $406 million, but 345 GL lower mean annual environmental flows. With the policy, smaller gains in upstream economic surplus from trees ($192 million), added to net downstream gains ($138 million) from sale of water, result in gains of $330 million with no reduction in environmental flows. Sustaining the 345 GL flow for a $76 million (406–330) reduction in gains to economic surplus may be seen to cost only $0.22 million/GL; but this is much lower than the market value of the first units of that water to agriculture and forestry.     

Underpayment of Small Producers of Coffee and Cocoa in Sierra Leone

Fieldwork shows that many Sierra Leonean producers do not receive the official producer price for their coffee and cocoa, due to the concentration of buying stations, credit relations, the small quantities offered for sale, and the lack of marketing knowledge of the numerous and unorganized farmers. To the traders underpayment may seem economically justifiable to a certain extent, but to the farmers it means poverty and debt. A new village marketing centre project aims at remedying this situation and has already led to higher prices. Although no longer allowed to take their "just" share from the producers, traders are still willing to deal with the new centres.