房地产价格与通货膨胀、产出的关系——理论分析与基于中国数据的实证检验

本文运用一个简单的数理模型与四象限模型分析了房地产价格影响通货膨胀与产出的机制,结论是:房地产价格通过影响总需求对物价水平产生压力,其中,房价对储蓄的边际影响十分重要。在此基础上,综合运用相关性分析、协整检验、脉冲响应函数与方差分解等方法实证检验我国房地产价格与通货膨胀、产出的关系,其结论是:短期内,房地产价格对通货膨胀与产出的影响十分有限,长期则对通货膨胀与产出产生重要的影响,并且,在房价与通货膨胀、产出之间存在正反馈作用机制。这意味着在一个平稳的宏观经济环境中,这种正反馈机制可能会引发经济过热和房价泡沫。     

THE LOCAL EFFECTS OF LARGE DAM RESERVOIRS: U.S. EXPERIENCE, 1975–1995

Dam construction has been an important component of economic development initiatives in the United States. However, few comprehensive empirical studies examine the effects of such projects on local employment and income. This paper employs quasi-experimental control group methods to examine the effects of large dam reservoirs on county income, earnings, population and employment growth for dams opened in the U.S. during the period 1975–1984. The paper shows that large dam reservoirs have some statistically significant positive effects and tend to stimulate growth. There is considerable variation, however, with dams constructed for flood control purposes and dams further away from markets and large cities having less of an effect.     

2011年北京商品房价格影响因素的方差分析

2011年,北京房价持续走高,不同城区的房价也都持续上涨。本文通过STATA软件对北京城八区和周边地区的商品房价格因素进行了描述统计分析、多因素方差分析和回归预测等,试图找出不同因素对于楼盘销售价格影响的显著性,并对差别进行估计和分析。     

2011年北京商品房价格影响因素的方差分析

2011年,北京房价持续走高,不同城区的房价也都持续上涨。本文通过STATA软件对北京城八区和周边地区的商品房价格因素进行了描述统计分析、多因素方差分析和回归预测等,试图找出不同因素对于楼盘销售价格影响的显著性,并对差别进行估计和分析。     

Measuring the Importance of Location in House Price Appreciation

This paper examines the variation in the rates of price appreciation within an individual metropolitan market. A methodology is developed to examine the locational variation in house price changes in Dade County (Miami) Florida, from 1971 to 1992. House price appreciation appears to be somewhat spatially related; that is, it varies by municipality, with distance from the CBD, with local changes in population and housing units, and by ethnic mix. However, these relationships have minimal explanatory power. Controlling for the census tract group location of each home explains only around 12% of the (residual) variation in the appreciation of individual homes that is not explained by metropolitan-wide changes in house prices. The effect of tract group location appears to be dominated by the idiosyncratic influences of individual homes and their immediate environments.     

我国通货膨胀与房地产价格的相关性研究

通货膨胀和房地产价格都是当前中国国民经济发展中遇到的热点问题,文章从探讨两者相关性出发,首先定性地讨论它们之间的有关理论和关系,然后通过实际数据,采用房地产价格、通货膨胀率、产出和利率等变量对其进行数据处理,再进行协整检验分析,由Granger因果检验得出我国房地产价格波动与通货膨胀率之间具有双向因果关系,最后给出了脉冲响应函数,得出结论：我国房地产价格波动与通货膨胀有一定的相关性。     

房价和地价相互关系的实证分析——基于上海等地数据的检验

房价与地价之间的关系问题一直是争议较大的热点,理论界有两种截然不同的观点：一种是成本论,从供给角度来看,地价决定房价;一种是需求论,从需求角度来看,地价上涨是由于房屋需求增加。本文基于长三角地区较有代表的四座城市数据对此问题进行分析。     

论房价在货币政策传导机制中的作用——基于VECM分析

本文在理论分析基础上,运用向量误差修正模型(VECM)实证检验房价在货币政策传导机制中的作用。分析结果表明,房价在货币传导机制中的作用较为显著,房价渠道的总体传导效率较高。因此,在我国房地产市场已成为货币政策传导的重要途径。最后本文提出了相关政策建议。     

House Prices and Housing Investment in Sweden and the UK: Econometric Analysis for the Period 1970–1998

We estimate quarterly dynamic housing demand and investment supply models for Sweden and the UK for the sample period 1970–1998, using an Error Correction Method (ECM). To facilitate comparisons of results between Sweden and the UK we model both countries identically with approximately almost the similar type of exogenous variables. The long–run income elasticities for Sweden and the UK are constrained to be 1.0, respectively. The long–run semi–elasticity for interest rates are 2.1 and 0.9 for Sweden and the UK. The speed of adjustment on the demand side is 0.12 and 0.23, while on the supply side it is 0.06 and 0.48 for Sweden and the UK, respectively. Granger causality tests indicate that income Granger causes house prices for Sweden, while for the UK there is also feedback from house prices to income. House prices Granger cause financial wealth for Sweden, while for the UK it is vice–versa. House prices cause household debt for Sweden, while for the UK there is a feedback from debt. Interest rates Granger cause house prices for the UK and Sweden. In both countries Tobin's q Granger cause housing investment. Generally, the diagnostic tests indicate that the model specifications were satisfactory to the unknown data generating process.     

Autoverkopen en autopark in Nederland, 1950–1970

Summary  This is a study of the demand for the ownership of new or firsthand cars, i.e. the demand of 'first owners' who habitually buy new cars which are then traded in long before they are obsolescent. Upon combining the evidence of various surveys with time-series for 1950-64 it is found that this ownership has an income elasticity of 2 and a price elasticity of – 1.25 in respect of the constant-quality index of new car prices earlier provided. On the average new cars are traded in after three years so that roughly one third of the existing stock is replaced every year. These values together determine an equation for purchases of new cars which accurately predicts new registrations in 1965 and 1966. Projections for the years 1967-70 are provided.
In the model employed the total number of cars (including used cars) is determined by the active demand exerted by 'first owners' on one hand and by the hitherto fairly constant scrappage rates on the other. Projections of the overall ownership rate can therefore be derived from the forecasts of new registrations. The ownership rate will approach 80% around 1970, and it is likely that at that stage the current scrappage rates will cease to apply in view of the greater predilection for comparatively younger cars.     

Interpolation of Air Quality Measures in Hedonic House Price Models: Spatial Aspects

Abstract

This paper investigates the sensitivity of hedonic models of house prices to the spatial interpolation of measures of air quality. We consider three aspects of this question: the interpolation technique used, the inclusion of air quality as a continuous vs discrete variable in the model, and the estimation method. Using a sample of 115,732 individual house sales for 1999 in the South Coast Air Quality Management District of Southern California, we compare Thiessen polygons, inverse distance weighting, Kriging and splines to carry out spatial interpolation of point measures of ozone obtained at 27 air quality monitoring stations to the locations of the houses. We take a spatial econometric perspective and employ both maximum-likelihood and general method of moments techniques in the estimation of the hedonic. A high degree of residual spatial autocorrelation warrants the inclusion of a spatially lagged dependent variable in the regression model. We find significant differences across interpolators in the coefficients of ozone, as well as in the estimates of willingness to pay. Overall, the Kriging technique provides the best results in terms of estimates (signs), model fit and interpretation. There is some indication that the use of a categorical measure for ozone is superior to a continuous one.

RÉSUMÉ

Interpolation des Mesures de la Qualité de l'Air dans les Modèles Hédoniste de l'Estimation Immobilière: Aspects Spatiaux

Cet article examine la sensibilité de l’évaluation hédoniste des prix de l'immobilier à l'interpolation spatiale des mesures de la qualité de l'air. Nous avons envisagé la question sous trois aspects: la technique d'interpolation utilisée, l'introduction de la qualité de l'air comme variable continue ou discrète dans le modèle et la méthode d'estimation. Nous avons utilisé un échantillon de 115 732 ventes de maisons individuelles, en 1999, dans le district Côte Sud de la gestion de la Qualité de l'Air en Californie du Sud. Nous avons comparé les polygônes de Thiessen, la pondération inversement proportionnelle à la distance, le krigeage et les courbes splines pour mener l'interpolation des mesures ponctuelles de l'ozone, obtenues dans 27 stations de suivi de la qualité de l'air en fonction des lieux où étaient situées les maisons. Nous avons pris une perspective spatiale économétrique et employé aussi bien la probabilité maximale que la méthode générale des moments techniques dans l’évaluation de l'hédonique. Un degré élevé d'auto corrélation spatiale résiduelle garantie l'inclusion d'une variable dépendante spatialement décalée dans le modèle de régression. Nous avons trouvé des différences importantes parmi les interpolateurs dans les coefficients d'ozone, ainsi que parmi les indicateurs de la volonté de payer. Surtout, la technique de krigeage donne les meilleurs résultats pour les estimations (signes), l'ajustement du modèle et l'interprétation. L'utilisation d'une mesure nominale pour l'ozone est supérieure à une mesure continue, semble-t-il.

RESUMEN

Interpolación de las medidas de la calidad del aire en los modelos de los precios hedónicos de la vivienda: aspectos espaciales

En este ensayo investigamos la sensibilidad de los modelos de lo precios hedónicos de la vivienda para la interpolación espacial de medidas de la calidad del aire. Tenemos en cuenta tres aspectos al respecto: la técnica de interpolación utilizada, la inclusión de la calidad del aire como variable continua, en vez de discreta, en el modelo, y el método de cálculo. Con una muestra de 115.732 ventas de viviendas individuales durante 1999 en el Distrito de Gestión de Calidad del Aire de la Costa Sur en California, comparamos los polígonos de Thiessen, la ponderación de la distancia inversa, métodos geoestadísticos o Kriging y métodos basados en splines para llevar a cabo la interpolación espacial de las mediciones puntuales de ozono obtenidas en 27 estaciones de control de calidad del aire en los lugares donde están situadas las viviendas. Desde la perspectiva econométrica espacial empleamos las técnicas de la probabilidad máxima del método general de momentos en el cálculo de precios hedónicos. Debido a un alto grado de autocorrelación espacial residual debemos incluir una variable dependiente espacialmente rezagada en el modelo de regresión. Se observan diferencias importantes entre los interpoladores en los coeficientes del ozono y en los cálculos de la disposición a pagar. En general, la técnica Kriging da los mejores resultados en cuanto a los cálculos (señales), la idoneidad del modelo y la interpretación. Hay indicios de que es mejor usar una medida categórica para el ozono en vez de una continua.     

R&D, Investment, and Industry Dynamics

We present a model of industry evolution where the dynamics are driven by a process of endogenous innovations followed by subsequent embodiments in physical capital. Traditionally, the only distinction between R&D and physical investment was one of labeling: the first process accumulates an intangible stock, knowledge, while the second accumulates physical capital. Both stocks affect output in a symmetric fashion. We argue that the story is not that simple, and that there is more to it than differences in the object of accumulation. Our model stresses the causal relationship between past R&D expenditures and current investments in machinery and equipment. This causality pattern, which is supported by the data, also explains the observed higher volatility of physical investment relative to that of R&D expenditures.