经济走势决定写字楼复苏——京沪深甲级写字楼上半年回顾及下半年预测

与上半年如火如茶的住宅市场相比,写字楼市场要逊色得多。从目前的市场表现来看,主要一线城市写字楼租金下降明显,上半年北京、上海、广州、深圳甲级写字楼租金与2008年底相比分别下滑10．82％、9．74％、9．04％、1．26％。空置率上升,客户纷纷搬离高档办公场所;金融危机尤其对外资客户影响巨大,相对应的甲级（顶级）写字楼市场表现尤为乏力,而准甲级、乙级写字楼相对抗跌。     

THE BRITISH ECONOMY SINCE 1945

Book reviewed in this article:
Nicholas C. R. Crafts and Nicholas Woodward (eds.) (1991), The British Economy Since 1945.
Alec Cairncross (1992) The British Economy Since 1945.
G. C. Peden (1991) British Economic and Social Policy: Lloyd George to Margaret Thatcher.
Terry Gourvish and Alan O'Day (eds.) (1991) Britain Since 1945.
Sidney Pollard (1992) The Development of the British Economy 1914–1990.     

HOUSE PRICES AND THE ECONOMY

UK house prices more than doubled from 1985 until 1989, with house price inflation over the previous year peaking at 34 per cent in the fourth quarter of 1988. The ratio of house prices to average incomes reached levels which surpassed even those experienced during the 1972-73 house price boom. This sharp increase in housing wealth has been a major factor in the fall in the savings ratio over the past three years. This forecast release examines the prospects for future house price movements, discusses the sources of the recent house price boom and finally considers the possible impact on consumer expenditure.     

POPULATION AND THE ECONOMY DURING THE DEMOGRAPHIC TRANSITION

The changes in population structure currently taking place in both developed and less‐developed nations are part of a very long‐term trend of demographic change that has yet to run its full course. The starting point of this trend is the complete rearrangement of demographic regimes characterised by significant declines in mortality coupled with widespread fertility control. This process started in a small group of European and non‐European societies during the nineteenth century and by the second half of the twentieth century had spread to much of the world. It has brought with it significant economic and social implications for societies affected which have differed by the timing of the transition but not in their basic thrust. Eventually the demographic transition promises to bring with it very rapid and widespread ageing and, within a few decades, world population decline. Some of the long‐term economic implications of this entire process are discussed in this article.     

ELECTION MANIFESTO POLICIES COMPARED

In this Forecast Release we compare the likely outcomes of the economic policies proposed by the three main contenders in the General Election. The results of some Dolicies. such as Labour's import controh and exchannge controls and the Allianie incomes policy, aie particularly dificult to evaluate using a conventional model; even for Conservative policies which are similar to those pursued so far, there remains considerable uncertainty about their consequences in future years. We have therefore prepared two forecasts for each of the three parties. One of these forecasts assumes that their policies are broadly successful, the other assumes they are unsuccessful.     

THE ECONOMY AT A TURNING POINT

In this Forecast Release we assess the evidence from the economic indicators and the latest official statistics for the view that the economy is at a turning point. We conclude that, while last year's rapid decline in UK output is coming to an end, a broadly-based recovery of the UK economy is unlikely until the world economy starts to grow again. The business surveys suggest that the upturn in European economy is less well established than the UK recovery. It may also be delayed further by high interest rates. The world turning point is thus likely to be some months later than die UK turning point, despite the strong upswing in the US. This implies that the UK recovery could be somewhat hesitant in the coming months.     

THE ECONIMY AFTER THE NOVEMBER MEASURES

The policy measures of November 24 were announced against a background of deepening recession. The purpose of this Forecast Release is to analyse the causes of the worsening economic outlook and the reasons for the policy adjustments announced last month. In the light of this analysis we assess the effect of the policy adjustments on the economic prospects for 1981 and beyond.     

THE MARKET ECONOMY AND THE TEACHINGS OF THE CHRISTIAN GOSPEL

The reality of the market economy is not an economy in which Christian values are generally evident. Although there are many prominent Christian capitalist writers, the real world is a world of rather more materialistic values. It does not have to be like that. It is possible for people to take Christian values out into the world of business and prosper.     

A NEW VISION OF THE KNOWLEDGE ECONOMY

Abstract.  To date, more than half of the output in the major OECD countries has been knowledge based. This paper argues, however, that the current growth-oriented exposition of the knowledge economy rooted in the conventional concept of free competition is insufficient for promoting the long-term development of human societies. Although we now live in a knowledge economy, most countries have been concurrently characterized by serious phenomena such as environmental degradation and growing economic inequality. The prospect of meeting global commitments, for instance, to reducing inequality, as outlined in the 1995 World Summit for Social Development in Copenhagen and endorsed in the United Nations Millennium Declaration, is bleak and the global society as a whole has become less and less sustainable. Indeed, the world is better seen as composed of numerous (but finite) knowledge economies. To take up the challenge of sustainable development of human societies, we have to develop a pluralistic perspective of the knowledge economy and fully acknowledge the characteristics of each unique knowledge system (such as indigenous knowledge possessed by a small tribe). Once we can help each individual knowledge system develop into a specific set of economic institutions that freely exchange concepts and beliefs with each other in a global environment, we will be able to develop a global economy that embodies a value-committed basis that assures a sustainable path of development on earth.     

LOWER OIL PRICES AND THE UK ECONOMY

Demand for oil remains weak, and OPEC production is running ahead of quota in most member countries, so the possibility that oil prices could fall in the near future has increased. In this Forecast Release we examine the medium-term impact on the UK economy of lower oil prices. We find that, if the government does not intervene to protect the exchange rate, there is an immediate stimulus to output growth. The inflation rate, though, is 1–2 percentage points higher after three years.     

ON REGIONAL SHOCKS IN THE SPANISH ECONOMY

It is well known that the nature of potential shocks impinging on a set of countries or regions may have important implications for relevant aspects of economic policy. This paper addresses the shocks issue empirically by applying the State Space methodology and the Kalman Filter to the case of the Spanish regions. The main conclusions are as follows: (i) it seems that the shocks affecting the Spanish regions have been mostly symmetric; (ii) their effects have been persistent rather than transitory; and (iii) supply shocks have been slightly more frequent than demand shocks.     

MAJORITY RULE AND ELECTION MODELS

Abstract. This paper surveys the theoretical work that has been done on majority rule and economic models of elections. Section I provides an overview of the topic. Section 2 reviews the most important results that have been obtained about majority rule as an abstract collective choice rule. Section 3 identifies some alternative inferences that can be made from those results. Section 4 covers some models that include additional features that are present in political institutions where majority rule is used. Section 5 concentrates on some alternative election models and equilibrium concepts. Section 6 focuses on election models with abstentions and/or candidate uncertainty about voter behaviour. Section 7 compares and contrasts models where candidates are certain about what the voters'choices will be (contingent upon about the choices made by the candidates) and models where they are uncertain about those choices. Section 8 closes the survey by identifying some emerging areas of research.     

CHRISTIANITY, THE MARKET ECONOMY AND THE LIMITS TO HUMAN KNOWLEDGE

At one time, the prevailing view amongst Christian clergy in Britain would have been sympathetic towards the spontaneous order of the market economy and not sympathetic towards socialism. The spontaneous order, would, of course, have included the rich tapestry of philanthropic organisations and mutual societies that used to provide welfare for the poor. The clergy today are not generally sympathetic towards the market order. An understanding of Austrian ideas takes us to the view that, at the very least, socialist rationalism is the common enemy of Christians and those who support a free market order.