新发展理念下中国区域经济高质量发展研究——水平测度、时空分异与动态演变

基于新发展理念,构建中国区域经济高质量发展评价指标体系,采用熵权Topsis法测算2007—2020年30个省区市经济高质量发展水平,综合运用Dagum基尼系数、Kernel密度估计和Markov转移概率矩阵从时间、空间多角度、多层次分析经济高质量发展水平的区域差异、演变趋势、空间分布特征与不同状态下的转移概率。研究发现：中国经济高质量发展水平整体呈上升趋势且存在较大提升空间,区域呈现由东部—中部—东北—西北地区降低的阶梯分布特征,存在空间集聚现象;经济发展差异主要来自区域间差异,且差异表现为缩小态势;区域经济高质量发展不存在极化现象,同时表现出较强的稳定性。     

中国农村劳动力流动空间分布特征的实证研究

城乡收入和区域间收入差距的存在,在促进农村非农产业发展的同时,必定推动和促进农村劳动力在产业间的转移和在区域间的流动。笔者根据农民阶层分化的理论,对20世纪90年代后期不同收入层和不同区域农村劳动力的流动进行了统计分析,对其空间分布特征和省际差异进行了描述和解释。     

我国城乡居民收入分布的正态估计

我国城乡居民收入分布均呈钟形分布特征。模拟估计结果显示,城乡居民收入分布均服从以家庭户数占比最高收入组中值为期望值的正态分布,且随着人均收入水平的提高,收入方差不断提高,收入分布曲线趋于平缓,但近年来城乡居民内部收入差距不断缩小,抑制了城乡居民收入方差扩大趋势和收入分布曲线的扁平化倾向。同时,城乡居民跨年度平均收入分布也服从家庭户数平均占比最高收入组中值为期望值的正态分布。     

浅析现阶段我国的收入差距

近年来我国的收入差距呈现扩大化的趋势,主要表现在城乡居民之间和城乡居民内部、地区之间、不同所有制及同一所有制内部和不同行业间等收入差距和不同阶层财富差距扩大。为了促进社会和谐发展,相应要从加大转移支付力度、完善税收、推进社会第三次分配促进区域经济协调发展、合理调整国有部门分配关系和扩大中等收入阶层比重等方面调节收入差距。     

中国农村居民收入区域类型的划分——基于聚类分析法的应用

本文基于区位理论,运用2006-2010年农村居民收入相关数据,构建了反映农村居民收入区域分类特征的综合指标体系,采用因子分析和聚类分析相结合的方法,对中国内地31个省(自治区、直辖市)农村居民收入区域类型进行了划分,为进一步研究农村居民收入区域间差异提供依据.研究结果表明:第一,农村居民收入区域类型适宜划分为四种,同一类型区域内差异较小,不同类型区域间差异较大;第二,农村居民收入是农村经济发展、农业经济结构和农业生产条件等因素综合作用的结果;第三,农村居民收入整体水平不高,且呈现国土空间梯度布局.     

浙江省经济发展的区域差异分析

改革开放以来浙江省11个地区之间的人均GDP基尼系数呈现逐步扩大的趋势;新世纪以来,主要城市之间的人均GDP基尼系数在缩小,11地区城镇居民可支配收入和农村居民纯收入的标准差继续扩大,但基尼系数有所缩小;浙江的经济发展呈现西南地区明显落后于东北地区和沿海地区的空间分布格局,杭州、宁渡的经济辐射作用高于温州;衢州市、丽水市是浙江省经济发展的洼地。     

要素跨区域流动对区域经济增长和波动的影响探讨

要素跨区域流动对区域经济增长和波动的影响应是多方面的.首先是区域间贸易和要素流动规模的扩大,提高了国内区域经济发展的一体化程度,分散了区域性供给或需求波动对区域经济发展的整体冲击力并进而进一步强化了区域经济波动周期延长与强度下降的趋势.其次是要素流动规模的扩大不仅进一步拓宽了经济波动的区域间的传导渠道,而且也提高了区域间经济增长与波动的相互解释力,增强了彼此间的因果关系和减弱了彼此间的同步性.     

2004年云南地区经济发展分析

2004年云南省各州市经济普遍有较快增长，地区产业结构总体上趋于合理，但区域经济基本格局未变，昆明、曲靖、玉溪、红河、大理、楚雄6州市仍是经济发展的主要推动者。工业和第三产业的空间分布很不均衡，区域发展不平衡，省内区域间经济差距有所扩大，城乡差距较大且呈继续扩大趋势。     

浅议“十一五”期间宁波农民收入区域差异

近年来,宁波不同县(市)的农村居民收入差距在逐步缩小,农民收入的增幅大都超过了城镇居民.本文对”十一五”期间宁波不同区域农民收入的变动规律和特征进行实证分析,发现其收入差距呈现逐渐扩大趋势,主要是由于工资性收入、家庭经营收入差异造成的,并据此提出进一步增加农民收入、缩小区域差异的对策措施.     

河南省A级旅游景区空间分布特征分析

利用地统计分析方法和GIS空间分析工具,从定量和定性两方面探讨了河南省175个A级旅游景区的空间分布结构,分析了河南省A级旅游景区的空间分布规律.结果表明:①河南省A级旅游景区的空间分布类型属于凝聚型,区域分布均衡性很低,区域间差异较大,高密度区域为开封、洛阳地区;②河南省A级旅游景区分布呈现空间不平衡的特征,符合河南省旅游资源“弓箭式”的战略发展布局;③河南省A级旅游景区分布受其地理位置、交通条件、景区地域组合条件和经济发展水平的影响.     

Income distribution dynamics across European regions: Re-examining the role of space

This paper is aimed at exploring the role played by space on the dynamics of regional per capita income disparities in Europe between 1980 and 2005. To do that, an analysis based on the so-called distribution dynamics approach is used as benchmark. Therefore, the external shape of the per capita income distribution and movements within it are examined using both continuous and discrete techniques. This first approach reveals that regional disparities across European regions have decreased over time and, based on the computation of a mobility index, also highlights the existence of a medium mobility degree within the distribution. Subsequently, a spatially conditioned distribution dynamics approach is developed to adequately assess the spatial dimension of the convergence process. In this new approach per capita income of each region is doubly conditioned on its per capita income and the per capita income of its neighbours, both in a previous period. Additionally, a novel mobility index on the basis of a spatial Markov chains approach is devised. The results illustrate the importance of geography in explaining regional per capita income evolution; in particular it is shown that poor regions surrounded by rich regions have a much higher probability of escaping the poverty trap than other poor regions.     

Exploratory spatial data analysis of the distribution of regional per capita GDP in Yangtze Delta, China: 1994-2004

Based on the spatial economy theory and the exploratory spatial data analysis (ESDA) technology, this paper studies the space-time dynamics of regional per capita GDP in the Yangtze Delta. A sample of 74 regions in the Yangtze Delta over the period of 1994 to 2004 provides clear evidence of global and local spatial autocorrelation as well as spatial heterogeneity in the distribution of regional per capita GDP The dynamism of regions is investigated by exploring the spatial pattern of regional growth, compared with that before 1997, the economic growth disparities among Shanghai, Zhejiang and Jiangsu provinces have decreased, so have the inside regions of Zhejiang Province, while it is opposite to the inside regions of Jiangsu Province.     

农民收入结构比较研究——基于中部六省数据的分析

随着中部崛起战略的实施,中部六省成为我国区域经济中的重要板块,"弯道超车"战略取得了明显的成效,经济总量逐步提高。但是农民人均纯收入的水平相对较低,影响了中部战略崛起的整体实施效果。分析了中部六省农民人均纯收入的结构,认为政府应当出台有针对性的政策,加快提升农民收入,促进中部六省整体和谐发展。     

近20年来中国区域经济发展差异的测定与评价

选取人均GDP、人均社会消费零售总额社会经济指标,通过计算其变异系数、加权变异系数、威廉森系数、最大与最小系数,对中国1978-2002年的经济发展不平衡性进行了动态时序分析,定量评价,了近20年来中国区域社会经济发展的差异程度;采用经济区位酶指标分析了中国经济发展空间格局的动态演化过程。结果表明,1990年以前中国经济区域差异程度在减小,1990年以后经济区域差异程度扩大,社会消费水平总体上呈扩大趋势。在空间格局上,经济发达区由过去的东北地区扩展到东部沿海地区,1970-1980年代区域差异表现为经济发达区、经济发展区、经济落后区之间的差异,而到1990年代主要表现为经济发达区和经济落后区之间的差异,两极化趋势明显,区域差异程度加大。     

NEOCLASSICAL GROWTH AND THE DISTRIBUTION OF CONSUMPTION

Abstract.  The neoclassical growth model is used to compare an economy with growing per capita income with an economy with stationary per capita income, in terms of equity in distribution of consumption. The economies have the same initial conditions including the same initial wealth distribution. The outcome of the comparison depends on the nature of structural differences between the economies. Even with convergence in wealth distribution in the growing economy, the consumption distribution there may be less equitable and dynasties with least initial levels of wealth may be worse off than dynasties with same initial wealth levels in the stationary economy.     

The opening of the North–South divide: Cumulative causation,household income disparity and the regional bonus in Taiwan 1976–2005

During the last decades regional income divergence seems to have reappeared in both developed and developing countries. In Taiwan – a renowned case of growth with equity – regional per capita income was converging until the early 1990s after which it began to diverge. With the help of modeled annual household survey data from 1976 to 2005 we indicate the magnitude of a regional bonus and discuss reasons behind the re-opening of the North–South income divide in Taiwan. Our analysis suggests that this process is a consequence of cumulative causation connected to the advent of the rise of ICT industry in conjunction with changes in Taiwan's political economy which provided relatively more advantageous economic opportunities for the industrial structure of the leading region.     

结构负利：流通业比重与地区经济增长*

作为国民经济中的基础性和先导性产业,流通业在国民经济中的比重呈现先下降后上升的U型演变趋势。本文利用扩展的索罗模型和中国省际地区面板数据探讨流通业比重变化对地区总体生产率和经济增长的影响。研究结果表明,首先,地区总体生产率与流通业比重呈显著的负相关关系。其次,地区人均产出增长率与当期流通业比重呈负相关关系,而与上期流通业比重呈正相关关系。流通业比重对地区人均产出增长率的净效应既受到地区总体生产率与流通业比重之间负向关系的影响,也受到地区经济增长收敛性的影响。根据模拟实验,2009-2014年中国流通业比重上升导致人均产出增长率约下降136个百分点。最后,地区流通效率在“流通业比重-总体生产率-经济增长”关系中发挥着明显的调节作用。在流通效率越高的地区,流通业比重上升对地区总体生产率和地区人均产出增长率的负向作用越弱。因此,地方政府可以通过提高本地区流通效率来缓解流通业比重上升带来的“结构负利”。     

贸易开放、人力资本与 中国区域收入空间效应* ——基于地级及以上行政区域经验数据分析

本文基于中国326个地级及以上行政区域2010-2012年的数据,利用空间杜宾增长模型（SDM）来测算贸易开放对中国区域人均收入的影响。本文测算了各个区域贸易开放和人力资本对人均收入水平的直接、间接和总影响。结果表明：一个区域的贸易开放程度越高越能促进当地经济的发展,对相邻区域的人均收入也会产生正的影响。同时笔者也发现,人力资本对中国各个区域的经济增长会产生正的直接和间接影响。     

Disparities in Australian Regional Incomes: Are They Widening or Narrowing?

In this study we examine Australian census data on regional incomes for the period 1976–91. Following a discussion of theories and empirical evidence regarding regional income adjustment, the regional dispersion of per capita income is analysed for the six Australian states and at the sub-state level (statistical divisions, SDs). The coefficient of variation is used as the measure of dispersion, and Gini coefficients are also calculated to analyse income equality within regions. For Australia, the cross-state dispersion of per capita incomes increased over the period, whereas there was neither convergence nor divergence of incomes among Australia's 57 SDs. In addition, the intrastate dispersion of per capita incomes across SDs remained largely unaltered over the period. Gini coefficients indicated that across income strata, the distribution of incomes both within states and within SDs has become more equal.     

Regional mobility in the European Union

Regional mobility in the spatial distribution of per capita income in the European Union is examined over the period 1977 to 1999. The methodology used to investigate this issue combines a series of measures taken from the literature devoted to the dynamic study of personal income distribution with a non-parametric analysis. The results show limited mobility in the distribution considered, and a decline in mobility over time. The empirical evidence presented indicates, moreover, that mobility patterns vary as a function of regional development levels. Additionally, the analysis carried out investigates the role played in explaining intra-distribution mobility by variables such as per capita income, population density, per capita expenditure in investment, market potential, and the share in total employment of agriculture, advanced services and non-market services.