A systemic comparative assessment of the multifunctional performance of alternative olive systems in Spain within an AHP-extended framework

The concept of sustainable agriculture is strongly related to the multifunctional role, either explicitly or implicitly, recognized to the primary sector. When assessing the performance and value to society of particular agricultural systems, the multifunctional nature of agriculture requires an approach based on multicriteria. Amongst others, these include economic, environmental, social, cultural and technical criteria. Like other complex multicriteria analyses, this evaluation of agricultural systems is characterized by the existence of not only many, but often conflicting criteria, multiple stakeholders and decision-makers who have competing interests, lack of information and a consideration of the high risks involved.The Analytic Hierarchy Process (AHP) is a methodology that deals with problems of this sort in a relatively easy, flexible and economical manner. Therefore it is a potentially useful tool for the practical resolution of complex problems, often an object of Ecological Economics. One such problem is the analysis of the sustainability of economic activities.This article has three aims. The first is to present AHP as a powerful methodology for assessing multifunctional performances of different agricultural systems in a comparative way. AHP can also be applied to other multifunctional economic activities. The second aim is to propose an extension of AHP for improving the decision-making processes when different groups of decision agents are involved. A final aim is to illustrate the AHP-extended methodology in a particular case study. This is done by using it to compare the multifunctional performance of alternative olive growing systems in Andalusia, a region located in the south of Spain, on the basis of the assessments of different groups of experts. This tests the hypothetically greater sustainability of organic and integrated farming over conventional farming systems in the medium/long term under average conditions for this region. Results for this case study show a greater global performance of organic and integrated agriculture despite differences in the ideological tendencies of the experts, thus providing a scientific basis for endorsing institutional and social support for the promotion and implementation of these farming techniques. Some conflictive issues, however, have been detected, especially in areas related to environmental performance. Further research on the controversial topics is desirable for clarification.     

Eliciting experts' knowledge: A comparison of two methods

This paper reports on a detailed comparison of the practical application of two well-known forecasting methods—a surprisingly rare exercise. Delphi and cross-impact analyses are among the best-known methods that apply quantitative approaches to derive forecasts from expert opinion. Despite their prominence, there is a marked shortage of clear guidance as to when and where–and how–particular methods can be useful, or as to what their costs and benefits are. This study applied the two methods to the same area, future European transport systems, using the same expert knowledge base. The results of the implementation of the two techniques were assessed and evaluated, in part through two evaluation questionnaires completed by the experts who participated in the study. This paper describes these encounters with methodology and evaluation, presents illustrative results of the forecasting study, and draws lessons as to good practice in use of these specific methods, as well as concerning methodological good practice in general—for example, stressing the need for systematic documentation, and the scope for debate about established practices.     

“德隆系”失败原因研究综述

在经济转型时期的中国,许多企业在成长的过程中,由于宏观层面上受到经济周期波动的影响,或者由于微观层面上自身不能适应经济发展对产业结构升级的要求,或者由于违规经营等原因而出现了财务危机,德隆系是其中最典型的案例。德隆系的成功曾经是学界津津乐道的奇迹,德隆系后来的失败又激起了学者的许多反思,许多学者对德隆系的成败进行了剖析。本文对德隆系成功与失败的原因研究进行了综述,并指出这些研究具有一定的合理性,具有一定的理论价值,但忽视了德隆系成败理论框架建立的基础——中国经济转型。     

An Encompassing Test of Real Interest Rate Equalization*

Much confusion about the real interest rate connection amongst different countries may result from a narrow approach to analyzing the data. Using an encompassing methodology that accommodates many different types of times‐series processes, we find that real interest rates are mean‐reverting long‐memory variables. We show that cointegration methodology can often fail in this environment. Using a more general approach, we detect a limited connection between real interest rates across countries. In particular, Germany is connected with several European countries, but the US is connected only with Canada and possibly the United Kingdom.     

Qualitative valuation of environmental criteria through a group consensus based on stochastic dominance

This paper introduces a qualitative valuation method to elicit stakeholders' intensities of preferences for a complex environmental issue and multiple social groups. Environmental valuation studies have shown that in any complex environment with a diversity of environmental services, stakeholders have difficulties using a monetary valuation to make trade-offs between different environmental services. Stated preference methods such as the Contingent Valuation Method (CVM) have been criticised for their individualistic format and assumptions of commensurability between environmental criteria. To alleviate both of these criticisms, we propose a qualitative valuation method. The method contains a discursive step to allow stakeholders to discuss and construct a list of environmental criteria and alternative plans. The list of criteria and plans is subsequently used by a group of experts to formulate an Impact Matrix (IM), which is to be used in the succeeding individualistic steps of the methodology. The first individualistic step consists of asking the stakeholders to rank Alternative Impacts (AIs) in the IM for each single criterion. The stakeholders are then asked to express intensities of their preferences through pairwise comparisons between the AIs of the constructed rank order on each single criterion. These intensities are expressed on a qualitative scale. Subsequently, to provide social intensities of preferences, a social preference (social rank order) is first determined for each single criterion. We propose to use the median value among the intensities of preferences as the social intensity of preference by assuming interpersonal comparability and taking into account stochastic monotonocity. This is a pre-processing step, which allows us to reach social intensities of preferences in the Lar rangeland (Iran), where several social groups have conflicting interests on rangeland services, leading to conflicting preferences on environmental criteria.     

Aggregation and consumer behaviour: some recent results

The availability of household-level data covering long periods of time makes it relatively easy to assess likely sources of aggregation bias. In this paper, we illustrate a promising methodology, which requires computing aggregation factors across households. If these factors are stable over time, aggregate data can be used to estimate micro-parameters.Our application covers consumer demand equations, and dynamic consumption relations, but the methodology could be applied in a variety of different contexts.     

Perceptions of domain experts on impact of foresight on policy making: The case of Japan

In this study, the perceptions of domain experts who participated in foresight activities on the impact on policy making are examined by conducting interviews and surveys on five previous foresights in Japan between 1996 and 2007. The purpose of the study is to examine how domain experts look at the practice of foresight in general, and perceive its overall impact on policy making in particular, in the setting of Japanese foresight conducted in the past 15 years. There are two tasks for doing that in this study: to know the views of scientists and engineers who participated in foresights on the impact of foresights they participated; and to know the effect of respondent's characteristics on their perceptions on impact.There are two main findings of this study. First, the impact on policy making perceived by domain experts who participated in foresight activities in Japan is not very high. Second, there are different patterns of perception on the size of the impact on policy making depending on ages, organizations, member status during foresight, and science and technology areas, and habit of following the situation in general looking for any impacts after the foresight.     

Economic evolution and the science of synergetics

This paper deals with synergetic methods, which have developed as a sub-field of the self-organisation approach in the natural sciences. Such methods have been used successfully to model structural transitions in physio-chemical contexts. The synergetic approach is explained in a non-technical way and the main elements of the synergetic methodology are introduced. The extent to which such methods can be applied in the presence of historical time series data, which are subject to underlying processes of evolutionary economic change, is assessed. Proposals, concerning more appropriate synergetic methods for evolutionary economic application, are considered.The research from which this paper is derived was supported by an Australian Research Council Large Grant. We would like to thank University of Queensland Emergent Complexity and Organisation in Economics [(ECO)²] Research Group participants-David Anthony, Bryan Morgan and Pradeep Philip-for their comments and criticisms on an earlier draft of this paper (Foster and Wild 1994). We are also grateful to Ulrich Witt for his detailed comments and Gerard Milburn (UQ Physics) for helping us to understand how synergetics is applied in physics. Three anonymous referees also provided invaluable comments on the journal submission. However, the usualcaveat applies.     

深圳东部工业组团可持续发展规划研究

本文以深圳市东部工业组团为案例,提出可持续发展规划的基本思路,即通过环境容量、资源容量分析,确定出区域适宜的开发规模,使经济规模、人口规模与环境容量、资源容量之间相互协调,保证区域可持续发展。     

A revisit on real interest rate parity hypothesis – simulation evidence from efficient unit root tests

A set of unit root tests are applied to test the existence of long-run real interest rate parity among the G-10 countries over the period 1971M1 to 2007M2. Rather than trusting the asymptotic distributions, this article uses simulation techniques to establish the small sample distributions of these tests, conditional on the stationary and nonstationary processes. The empirical results indicate that the tests have stable finite-sample sizes and higher size-adjusted powers such that the two estimated processes can be distinguished from each other. Thus, for six of the nine countries, their series are more likely to come from the estimated Autoregressive (AR) stationary process than from the nonstationary process. Noticeably, the testing results are rather different from those using the asymptotic distributions, in which only three countries support the real interest rate parity.     

Identity and group conflict

We experimentally investigate the effects of real and minimal identities on group conflict. In turn we provide a direct empirical test of the hypotheses coined by Amartya Sen that the salience of a real identity escalates conflict but that of a mere classification would not do so. In a baseline treatment, two groups – East Asians and Caucasians – engage in a group contest, but information on the racial composition of the groups is not revealed. In the minimal identity treatment each group is arbitrarily given a different color code, whereas in the real identity treatment the race information is revealed. Supporting Sen׳s hypotheses, we find that compared to the baseline, free-riding declines and conflict effort increases in the real identity treatment but not in the minimal identity treatment. Moreover, this occurs due to an increase in efforts in the real identity treatment by females in both racial groups.     

Optimizing Environmental Product Life Cycles

In this paper, we propose a methodology, based on materials accounting and operational research techniques, to assess different industry configurations according to their life cycle environmental impacts. Rather than evaluating a specific technology, our methodology searches for the feasible configuration with the minimum impact. This approach allows us to address some basic policy-relevant questions regarding technology choice, investment priorities, industrial structures, and international trade patterns. We demonstrate the methodology in the context of the European pulp and paper industry. We are able to show that current environmental policy's focus on maximizing recycling is optimal now, but that modest improvements in primary pulping technology may shift the optimal industry configuration away from recycling toward more primary pulping with incineration. We show that this will have significant implications for the amount and type of environmental damage, for the location of different stages in the production chain, and for trade between European member states. We caution policy makers that their single-minded focus on recycling may foreclose investment in technologies that could prove environmentally superior. Finally, we hint that member state governments may be fashioning their environmental policy positions at least in part on some of the trade and industrial implications we find.     

TAR Panel Unit Root Tests and Real Convergence

The authors propose a new panel data methodology to test real convergence in a non-linear framework. This extends the existing methods by combining three approaches: the threshold model, the panel data unit root tests, and the computation of critical values by bootstrap simulation. The authors apply their methodology to the per capita outputs of a total of 15 European countries, including some of the East European countries that have recently joined the EU.     

Social capital, capabilities, and entrepreneurial strategies: a study of Taiwanese high-tech new ventures

This paper examines the effects of social capital, entrepreneurs' capabilities and entrepreneurial strategies on the performance of technology-based new ventures. Using concepts derived from the entrepreneurship and strategy management literatures, we identify three categories of factors and develop corresponding hypotheses. Using a sample of 125 Taiwanese high-tech new ventures to test these hypotheses, we find that entrepreneurs' management experience may not be an advantage for high-tech new ventures. The six Stevenson entrepreneurial strategies can have different effects on the performance of new ventures, whereas social capital actually moderates the effects of entrepreneurial strategies and resources on the performance. High-tech entrepreneurship is a complex phenomenon with a wide range of factors, including societal contexts, entrepreneurial strategies and entrepreneurs' capabilities; and these factors interact with each other. There is no single route to entrepreneurial success or failure: successful entrepreneurs are those who can adjust their entrepreneurial strategies according to their social capital and capabilities.     

Learning before the storm: Modeling multiple stakeholder activities in support of crisis management,a practical case

The severe consequences of a Critical Infrastructure (CI) crisis demand continued research directed toward proactive and reactive management strategies. Despite the best efforts of governments and communities, the diversity of stakeholders, conflicting demands for resources, and a lack of trust among organizations create complexities that limit the effectiveness of the response. This paper identifies four specific problems that appear to reoccur when CIs are challenged: heterogeneity, multiple and inconsistent boundaries, resilience building and knowledge transfer and sharing. A combination of collaborative modeling and software simulation methodologies is proposed in order to identify the interrelationships among diverse stakeholders when managing the preparation for and reaction to a CI crisis. This approach allows experts to work together and share experiences through the modeling process which can lead them to a better understanding of how other organizations work and integrate different perspectives. In addition, simulation models enable domain experts to understand the consequences of certain policies in the short and long terms, thus improving the crisis managers' knowledge for future crisis situations. This paper presents a practical case of a hypothetical crisis in the CI sector and the approach used in order to deal with the four problems identified above.     

A SIMPLIFIED MODEL FOR SOCIAL WELFARE ANALYSIS: AN APPLICATION TO SPAIN, 1973–74 TO 1980–81

Most of the literature on income distribution has concentrated on inequality. In this paper we introduce a concern for efficiency in a social welfare model. We propose a simple but useful specification which combines three features: (i) the selection of measurement instruments in the relative and the absolute case on the grounds of their properties for applied work; (ii) a procedure to make welfare comparisons across households with different needs, in a model in which equivalence scales depend only on house-hold size; and (iii) the use of household specific statistical price indices to make intertemporal comparisons in real terms. The methodology is applied to the study of the role of prices and demographic effects in the evolution of the standard of living in Spain from 1973–74 to 1980–81.     

对投资膨胀要警钟常鸣

指导思想上的急于求成使改革前的投资膨胀具有了可能性，投资主体三种职能──筹资、决策、承担盈亏、──被肢解于不同的部门把这种可能性变成了现实性，属于二类膨胀；改革后的投资膨胀仍是因为承担投资活动的单位──中央政府、地方政府、国有企业──并非真正的投资主体，仍属二类膨胀，因此是旧病复发；考虑到把国有企业改造成为投资主体尚待时日，预计今后我国投资波动的方向仍会以膨胀为主；治理投资膨胀，应首先通过把企业改造成’集等资、决策、承担盈亏三种职能于一身的投资主体，进一步实现投资主体的多元化、分散化、把二类膨胀转化为一类膨胀，同时加强和完善政府的宏观调控和信息指导减弱类膨胀。     

The over-optimism among experts in assessment and foresight

It is still disputed whether foresight exercises should be based on top-expert assessments or on a broader base of less specialised experts, and whether the self-rating of experts is an acceptable method. Using the German 1993 and the Austrian 1998 Technology Delphis, this study addresses both questions. Self-rating is, in fact, an appropriate method for selecting experts. But the assessment of self-rated top experts tend to suffer from an optimism bias due to the experts' involvement and their underestimation of realisation and diffusion problems. The degree of optimism is positively correlated with the degree of self-rated knowledge, and it is more pronounced for the least pioneering and for organizational innovations. Experts with top self-ratings working in business have a stronger optimism bias than those working in the academia or in the administration: Consistent with the insider hypothesis, they are most optimistic with regard to realisation, innovativeness, and potential leadership in economic exploitation. Given the optimism bias, foresight exercises should base their panels on a fair mixture of experts of different grades, with different types of knowledge and affiliation, and not only on top specialists of the respective field. Delphi-type exercises, therefore, offer an advantage relative to forum groups or small panels of specialists.     

银行集团的并表监管:国际经验与中国实践

并表监管是对银行集团特殊复杂的风险暴露进行监管的一种重要的方法.无论采取何种监管理念、监管模式,并表监管的技术性要素都是实施银行集团有效监管的最基本和最重要的内容.巴塞尔委员会、三大国际监管机构的联合论坛以及欧盟是推动并表监管发展的重要力量.本文主要对这些国际机构在并表监管具体框架和技术方面的经验进行了总结分析,研究了影响我国银行集团并表监管有效性的制约因素,并结合我国监管实践提出了完善我国并表监管的建议.     

Models to date the business cycle: The Italian case

The problem of dating the business cycle has recently received many contributions, with a lot of proposed statistical methodologies, parametric and non-parametric. In general, these methods are not used in official dating, which is carried out by experts, who use their subjective evaluations of the state of economy. In this work we try to apply some statistical procedures to obtain an automatic dating of the Italian business cycle in the last 30 years, checking differences among various methodologies and with the ISAE chronology. The purpose of this exercise is to verify if purely statistical methods can reproduce the turning points detection proposed by economists, so that they could be fruitfully used in official dating. To this end parametric as well as non-parametric methods are employed. The analysis is carried out both aggregating results from single time series and directly in a multivariate framework. The different methods are also evaluated with respect to their ability to timely track (ex post) turning points.