ExpertLens: A system for eliciting opinions from a large pool of non-collocated experts with diverse knowledge

The complexity of policy decision-making raises the need to elicit opinions from large and heterogeneous groups of stakeholders with broad and diverse sets of expertise. Existing options for elicitation include small face-to-face panels of experts by using the Nominal Group Technique (NGT), large Delphi panels whose members do not interact with each other face-to-face, and crowdsourcing, which involves an open call for input issued to a large community of people. In an attempt to close the gap between the practical needs of policy makers and the methodological challenges associated with eliciting opinions of large, diverse, and distributed groups, we have developed a new online elicitation system and methodology called ExpertLens. By optimizing the direct interactions of NGT with the larger number of Delphi participants and the wisdom of “selected crowds,” our approach is designed to save on the costs associated with traditional expert panels, while increasing accuracy in elicitation by reducing the potential for group process losses that can occur in large, diverse, and non-collocated panels whose members interact via asynchronous online discussion boards. The ExpertLens approach is iterative, does not require participants to develop consensus, and determines what the group “thinks” by statistically analyzing data collected in all rounds of the elicitation. This paper describes the ExpertLens system and methodology, briefly discusses recent ExpertLens trials, provides conceptual arguments for why it is an appropriate model for eliciting expert opinions, illustrates its main components and analytics by using an infrastructure investment example, and discusses a research agenda for testing the underlying tenets of the ExpertLens approach.     

The use of Delphi methodology in agrifood policy development: Some lessons learned

Developing policy in the agrifood area is an inexact process, usually relying upon effective integration of opinions from multiple experts from different disciplines, organisational types, and regions/countries. Delphi would appear to have the potential to overcome some of the typical limitations related to soliciting expert opinion and identifying consensus on future activities or options, particularly where relevant experts are dispersed geographically, and international consensus is required, as is the case in this domain. Three case studies, focused on the application of Delphi to emerging policy needs in international or European agrifood policy, are presented here to exemplify the utility of the technique. A number of practical recommendations are drawn from these case studies that may be applicable to other major policy making arenas. Among these recommendations are; that an exploratory workshop to refine round one Delphi questions is essential; that the implementation of “cascade” methodology (utilizing the personal contacts of researchers or members of existing policy networks) appears to increase response rates in subsequent Delphi rounds; and that the policy issue under discussion should be particularly relevant to stakeholders in order to increase participation rates. Further research might usefully focus on developing ways to incorporate measurements of uncertainty associated with stakeholder judgement into quantitative responses, and on establishing how best to utilise such information in feedback in subsequent Delphi rounds. Ensuring how best to inform policy uptake of the outputs of Delphi merits further research in particular.     

Opinion convergence in location: A spatial version of the Delphi method

This paper proposes a modified version of the Delphi method, starting from the assumption that in many situations the convergence of opinions can be considered in a spatial context. The Spatial Delphi we suggest is based, like the classical Delphi, on the judgments of experts, and it is useful in the consultations for decision and/or forecast purposes, provided that they concern matters of spatial location. The basis for the questionnaire is a map, on which each expert provides, as answer(s), one or more opinion-points, i.e., locations that, according to their opinion, are best for a specific purpose. We propose a method for narrowing the area of convergence along a multi-step procedure so that the final result of the consultation is a small portion of the initial territory with respect to the initial area considered. Besides a simulation study, we report also a prototype application with a panel of twelve experts.     

Foresight tools for participative policy-making in inter-governmental processes in developing countries: Lessons learned from the eLAC Policy Priorities Delphi

The paper shows how international foresight exercises, through online and offline tools, can make policy-making in developing countries more participatory, fostering transparency and accountability of public decision-making. A five-round Delphi exercise (with 1454 contributions), based on the priorities of the 2005-2007 Latin American and Caribbean Action Plan for the Information Society (eLAC2007), was implemented. This exercise aimed at identifying future priorities that offered input into the inter-governmental negotiation of a 2008-2010 Action Plan (eLAC2010). It is believed to be the most extensive online participatory policy-making foresight exercise in the history of intergovernmental processes in the developing world to date. In addition to the specific policy guidance provided, the major lessons learned include (1) the potential of Policy Delphi methods to introduce transparency and accountability into public decision-making, especially in developing countries; (2) the utility of foresight exercises to foster multi-agency networking in the development community; (3) the usefulness of embedding foresight exercises into established mechanisms of representative democracy and international multilateralism, such as the United Nations; (4) the potential of online tools to facilitate participation in resource-scarce developing countries; and (5) the resource-efficiency stemming from the scale of international foresight exercises, and therefore its adequacy for resource-scarce regions. Two different types of practical implications have been observed. One is the governments' acknowledgement of the value of collective intelligence from civil society, academic and private sector participants of the Delphi and the ensuing appreciation of participative policy-making. The other is the demonstration of the role that can be played by the United Nations (and potentially by other inter-governmental agencies) in international participatory policy-making in the digital age, especially if they modernize the way they assist member countries in developing public policy agendas.     

The Delphi method as early warning: Linking global societal trends to future radicalization and terrorism in The Netherlands

A Delphi study was performed to answer the question: Which global societal trends relate to future radicalization and subsequent terrorism in the Netherlands? An inventory of two hundred global societal trends and a literature study of radicalization together served as briefing of the participants in the Delphi study. The first two rounds were conducted in anonymous writing. The third round was a face to face focus group meeting. In the first and second round participants scored the trends, adjusted their scores relative to others and provided arguments, and in the focus group meeting, themes were discussed in which the participants remained to have strong opposite views. This approach emphasizes divergence in opinion (‘dissensus’), as opposed to convergence (‘consensus’). Consensus seeking to us seems to be the dominant application of Delphi, but we emphasize the value of seeking dissensus. We hypothesize that in those cases where the opposite views that were discussed kept their ground, this Delphi study may have found early warnings of future radicalization.The essence of this paper is that it is possible, with limited effort, to get a handle on the complex and poorly defined subject of global societal trends influencing future radicalization. Application of the Dissensus Delphi method provided a selection of early warnings that may be looked into with future research.     

The contribution of minimum wage valorization policy to the decline in household income inequality in Brazil: A decomposition approach

There is a vast literature that estimates the effect of the minimum wage on wage inequality in various countries. However, as the minimum wage directly affects nonlabor income of families in some countries (in the Brazilian case via the benefits of the pension system and of certain social programs), this article extends the empirical analysis by studying the effects of the minimum wage on the level of inequality of household income as a whole. To accomplish that we employ a decomposition method that gauges the contribution of the increases in the minimum wage that occurred in recent decades in Brazil through the labor and nonlabor sources of household income. The results show that the minimum wage had a contribution of 64 percent to the observed fall in income inequality between 1995 and 2014 and that pensions were the most relevant channel over this period.     

A contribution to the empirics of convergence in real GDP growth: the role of financial crises and exchange-rate regimes

This paper investigates the convergence in real gross domestic product growth focusing on the impact of financial crises (i.e. banking crises, currency crises and debt crises) and nominal exchange-rate regimes (i.e. fixed, intermediate and flexible) on convergence. To that end, we compute four convergence indicators (σ-convergence, γ-convergence, absolute β-convergence and conditional β-convergence) for 163 countries classified into four income groups during the period 1970–2011. The results suggest that (i) there is evidence in favour of σ-convergence and γ-convergence only for high-income countries; (ii) absolute and conditional β-convergence are present in each of the four income groups of the countries under study; (iii) exchange-rate regimes seem to play some role in upper-middle and lower-middle-income countries; and (iv) financial crises have a negative and significant impact on GDP growth independently of the income level of the countries.     

Willingness to pay for managerial training: A case from the knitwear industry in Northern Vietnam

Managerial capital has received attention in recent years as one of the major determinants for enterprise productivity, growth, and longevity. While recent empirical studies make it clear that training intervention can improve the management level, it remains unclear why the managers had not made efforts to obtain these basic knowledge. To test the hypothesis that the reason lies in low valuation for obtaining knowledge, we conduct experimental training programs for the managers of SMEs in a knitwear cluster in rural town in Vietnam. We find that the demand for these training was indeed low prior to training, but increased greatly with own learning experience, and that those with a higher prior demand tended to benefit more from the training.     

产业资本向金融资本渗透的路径和影响——基于资本市场“举牌”的研究

随着金融市场化的进一步推进,资本市场发挥着产业资本向金融资本渗透的重要作用。文章选取以举牌为核心的产业资本向金融资本渗透的微观案例,分析了产业资本通过金融市场向金融资本渗透的途径和结果。研究显示,产业资本渗透金融资本后被举牌公司的经营业绩得到提高,产品市场份额增强,说明通过产业资本对被举牌企业实施经营管理提高了被举牌企业的经营效率,实现了产业调整。这也说明金融手段能够有效支持产业资本的扩张和结构调整,显示了资本市场在两者转换过程中所起到的关键作用。     

我国蔬菜种植户放弃种菜意愿及其影响因素分析——基于北方五省市的调研

保障蔬菜供应是我国蔬菜产业发展的基本目标之一,农户蔬菜种植行为对蔬菜产业的可持续发展具有重要意义. 采用我国北方设施蔬菜主产区的北京、天津、河北、辽宁和山东5个省市1171个蔬菜种植户的调研数据,在对种植户行为进行理论分析和描述性统计分析的基础上,通过运用Logistic模型,对农户蔬菜种植行为及其影响因素进行测度分析. 研究结果表明,在近三成有放弃蔬菜种植意愿的农户中,蔬菜种植面积占家庭耕地面积的比例、蔬菜生产中有贷款需求但得不到满足、农户对技术有需求但得不到满足、2011年蔬菜生产中遭受自然灾害以及村中有蔬菜专业合作社等因素对农户放弃蔬菜生产意愿有正向影响;农户家庭收入和从事蔬菜生产的年限对农户放弃蔬菜生产意愿有负向影响.     

基于变异系数熵权法的水资源系统恢复力评价——以黑龙江省2007—2016年水资源情况为例

对于传统熵权法权重分配不合理的问题,将熵权法和变异系数法用最小信息熵原理进行耦合,并首次应用于水资源系统恢复力评价。以黑龙江省2007—2016年十年间的水资源情况为例,用综合评价法对水资源系统恢复力进行评价,并提出适应性对策。结果表明:变异系数熵权法得到的权重解决了单一客观权重分配不合理的问题,使分配权重的结果具有协调性。根据黑龙江省水资源系统恢复力的综合评价结果来看,影响黑龙江省水资源评价的主要因素有5项指标,分别是生态环境用水比例、节水灌溉面积率、人均GDP、城市污水处理率和万元工业产值用水量。根据评价结果,从政策制度、提升恢复力和进行多区域对比等方面提出了相对应的适应性对策。     

中国区域经济收敛的空间计量分析——基于长三角1993-2006年132个县市区的实证研究

文章运用空间统计与空间计量的分析方法,根据长三角132个县市区的统计数据,进行了区域经济增长收敛性的实证研究,结果发现长三角132个县市区经济增长存在着显著的空间依赖性或空间自相关特征,因而若采用标准的β收敛方程会使得估计结果出现有偏与不一致;而若采用考虑了空间依赖性或空间自相关因素的模型进行估计,则其结果显示,虽然长三角县市区经济增长的收敛方向并没有改变,但是其经济收敛的速度却明显下降,且在统计上显著.这一发现不仅证实了新古典增长模型所反映的增长机制仍然决定着长三角经济增长的基本面,新经济增长因素只是减弱了长三角地区经济收敛的趋势,并没有从根本上改变经济增长收敛的方向;而且从更小空间单元测度的层面刻画了长三角经济增长的空间依赖性特征.