Urban Shopping Patterns in Indonesia and Their Implications for Small Farmers

In developing countries, the expansion of supermarkets and other modern food retailers has raised concerns about the potential impact on traditional retailers and fruit and vegetable farmers. Will small farmers, in particular, be squeezed out of this growing, remunerative market by the quality standards imposed by supermarkets? In an attempt to answer this question, we analyse data from a stratified random sample of 1,180 urban households in Indonesia. We find that only a small share of fruits and vegetables are purchased from modern outlets, even among high-income urban households. On the basis of the relation between income and shopping patterns in our data, we project that even after 15 years of income growth, supermarkets will account for less than 40% of urban food spending. The impact of supermarket standards on small farmers may be less dramatic than has been feared.     

Designing Agricultural Technology for African Women Farmers: Lessons from 25 Years of Experience

African women farmers are less likely than men to adopt improved crop varieties and management systems. This paper addresses two issues: How does gender affect technology adoption among African farmers? How does the introduction of new technologies affect women's well-being? Three conclusions come out of an extensive and critical review of the literature. First, African households are complex and heterogeneous. Second, gender roles within African households and communities cannot be simply summarized. Third, gender roles and responsibilities are dynamic; they respond to changing economic circumstances. The paper demonstrates the complexity and importance of efforts to design interventions for African women.     

Industrial Policy and Technology Diffusion: Evidence from Paper Making Machinery in Indonesia

In this paper, we analyze the diffusion and adoption of paper making machinery in the Indonesian pulp and paper industry, from 1923 till 2000. We develop a machine level index of technological sophistication (mach), which measures the technological distance of each paper machine to the world technological frontier. The data reveal a pattern of rapid technological catch up. But catch up was not an industrywide phenomenon. Some modern firms installed state-of-the-art machinery, while others installed older vintages. The paper argues that industrial policy has played an important role in the speed and nature of diffusion of paper making machinery.     

Property-Price Determinants in Indonesia

Price formation provides critical insights into the attributes of fledgling property markets in developing countries. This article investigates asking-price formation across the Indonesian archipelago, including previously unstudied regional property markets. We compile a rich micro dataset of asking prices for residential, commercial, and undeveloped land from a nationwide classifieds database. Through a hedonic price analysis we identify the impact of property and advertisement attributes on asking prices for each type of property, using spatial fixed effects to control for spatially correlated unobservable characteristics at the district and city levels. Results indicate that property characteristics, land ownership status, and advertising method are all statistically significant indicators of asking price. We find considerable heterogeneity in asking-price formation in residential, commercial, and undeveloped land, and identify key differences between urban and rural markets.     

Farmers and Middlemen in a Transmigration Area in Indonesia 1

Compared with long-settled lava, transmigration areas in the outer islands of Indonesia are characterised by an underdeveloped transportation and communication infrastructure that makes farmers' access to markets relatively difficult. In this case study, however, no significant difference was found in either marketing margins or middleman profits between a transmigration area in Sumatra and a long-settled area m West Java. High risk and transaction costs, associated with long-distance trade under poor infrastructure, together with delays in the issue of formal land titles to transmigrant settlers, operate as entry barriers to marketing activities. These negative factors in the transmigation area are largely compensated for by the larger marketable agricultural surplus per farm, which has the effect of reducing transportation and transaction costs.     

Value Chain Connectivity in Indonesia: The Evolution of Unbundlings

This paper applies the conceptual framework of ‘unbundling’, proposed by Baldwin (2016), to assess the value chain connectivity in Indonesia. Indonesia is a geographically large country, and three different levels of unbundling co-exist. The first unbundling aligns with the industry-wise international division of labour in plantation agriculture, mining, and labour-intensive industries; the second aligns with where the task-wise international division of labour dominates mainly in machinery industries; and the third aligns with where face-to-face costs are reduced by the digital economy. We argue that the further upgrading of unbundling and the more effective use of advanced piecemeal technologies among different levels of unbundling will enable Indonesia to achieve rapid and equitable economic development. Overcoming distance is key for effectively using the mechanics of unbundling. We propose that three key elements are be promoted: enhancement of connectivity, development of the service sector, and improvement of the policy environment.     

The Role of Markets,Technology, and Policy in Generating Palm-Oil Demand in Indonesia

Indonesia produces more palm oil and consumes more palm oil per capita than any country in the world. This article examines the processes through which Indonesia has promoted palm-oil consumption and some of the consequences of that promotion. Partial equilibrium modelling shows that Indonesia's remarkable increase in palm-oil consumption since 1985 is not largely attributable to population and income growth. Instead, much of this consumption growth has resulted from substitution away from coconut oil, facilitated by government policies on technology, pricing, distribution, and trade. The switch from coconut oil to palm oil in Indonesia was associated with increased land conversions to agriculture and diminished smallholder competitiveness. Despite lower rates of cooking-oil substitution in the future, simulations suggest that Indonesia's total palm-oil consumption in 2035 will be at least double that of 2010.     

Global Retail Chains and Poor Farmers: Evidence from Madagascar

Global retail companies (“supermarkets”) have an increasing influence on developing countries, through foreign investments and/or through the imposition of their private standards. The impact on developing countries and poverty is often assessed as negative. In this paper we show the opposite, based on an analysis of primary data collected to measure the impact of supermarkets on small contract farmers in Madagascar, one of the poorest countries in the world. Almost 10,000 farmers in the Highlands of Madagascar produce vegetables for supermarkets in Europe. In this global supply chain, small farmers’ micro-contracts are combined with intensive farm assistance and supervision programs to fulfill complex quality requirements and phyto-sanitary standards of supermarkets. Small farmers that participate in these contracts have higher welfare, more income stability and shorter lean periods. We also find significant effects on improved technology adoption, better resource management and spillovers on the productivity of the staple crop rice. The small but emerging modern retail sector in Madagascar does not (yet) deliver these benefits as they do not (yet) request the same high standards for their supplies.     

Producers, Processors, and Procurement Decisions: The Case of Vegetable Supply Chains in China

This study examines how different supply chain characteristics impose different coordination costs on vegetable processors. The results provide a basis for understanding the relative importance of four alternative supply chain characteristics to vegetable processors: (1) the size of the producers’ production base; (2) the distance between the producer and the processing plant; (3) the level of detail specified in the contract between processors and grower; and (4) whether the producer has food safety certification. Vegetable processors from Laiyang County, Shandong province, China’s largest horticultural production and export region, provide the data underlying the following analysis. Conjoint analysis suggests that the vegetable processors consider the size of the production units as the most important supply chain characteristic influencing their choice of producers, followed by distance to producer, type of contract and food safety certification.     

Equity Risk Premium Puzzle: Evidence from Indonesia and Sri Lanka

This paper investigates the equity risk premium puzzle in the Indonesian and Sri Lankan stock markets in order to identify the relationship between the volatility of excess returns and the equity risk premium. The asymmetric impact of negative shocks on the equity risk premium is also examined using threshold and exponential GARCH-M models. We analyse data on the excess returns of the Indonesian and Sri Lankan stock markets from 2004 to 2013, and we find that the impact of the conditional volatility of excess returns on the equity risk premium is not significant in either country. Instead, we find an impact from negative return shocks on the equity risk premium only in Sri Lanka. Therefore, we conclude that investors are not compensated for the conditional volatility of the excess returns in these two markets, while Sri Lankan investors are compensated for the risk of negative shocks.     

India and Indonesia: Lessons Learned from the 2013 Taper Tantrum

In May 2013, the US Federal Reserve began to talk about the possibility of ending its program of quantitative easing. This tapering talk had a significant impact on five main emerging-market countries—Brazil, India, Indonesia, South Africa, and Turkey (the ‘Fragile Five’)—whose exchange rates weakened dramatically and whose stock and bond markets were hit hard. This series of events is now known as the ‘taper tantrum’. In response to the tantrum, these five countries each took a series of macroeconomic policy measures to relieve pressure in their financial markets. Indonesia and India handled the problem in the shortest time (about seven months) and achieved macro-economic stabilisation. This article examines how Indonesia and India managed to remain relatively unscathed by the taper tantrum and escape the Fragile Five. It looks at which policies the two countries adopted at the time, and why they chose them, as well as why India's economy performed better than Indonesia's after the tantrum.     

农产品供应链与农户一体化组织引导:浙江个案

解析农产品供应链中组织形式背后的约束条件及其与农产品质量安全水平之间的关系.有助于推动我国农业产业组织创新、解决农产品质量安全问题和提高人们的生活质量与健康水平。通过对浙江省临海市上盘镇西兰花专业合作社的研究发现,没有严格的市场检测(要求),就没有一体化的组织,也就没有质量安全。因此,我国农产品质量安全管理工作的重点在于如何积极引导分散的小农户自愿形成一体化的组织。     

Farmers, Vertical Coordination, and the Restructuring of Dairy Supply Chains in Central and Eastern Europe

The combination of transition and globalization since the early 1990s has caused dramatic changes in the dairy chains in Central and Eastern Europe. This paper uses survey evidence from several Central and East European countries to document the growth of vertical coordination in the dairy chain, its relationship with policy reforms, its effects and the implications for small farms. Evidence suggests that in several countries small dairy farms have benefited from vertical coordination processes by providing them access to inputs and higher value markets.     

Competitiveness and Subsidy or Tax Policy for New Technology Adoption in Duopoly

We consider a problem of subsidy or tax policy for new technology adoption by duopolistic firms. The technology is developed in and transferred by a foreign country to the domestic country. It is free but each firm must expend some fixed set-up cost for education of its staff to adopt and use it. Assuming that each firm maximizes the weighted average of absolute and relative profits, we examine the relationship between competitiveness and subsidy or tax policies for technology adoption, and show that when firm behavior is not competitive (the weight on the relative profit is small), the optimal policy of the government may be taxation; when firm behavior is competitive (the weight on the relative profit is large), the optimal policy is subsidization or inaction and not taxation. However, if firm behavior is extremely competitive (close to perfect competition), taxation case re-emerges.     

Kenyan Supermarkets, Emerging Middle-Class Horticultural Farmers, and Employment Impacts on the Rural Poor

Are the rural poor excluded from supermarket channels in developing countries? We analyzed the farm-level impact of supermarket growth on Kenya’s horticulture sector, which is dominated by smallholders. The analysis reveals a threshold capital vector for entrance in the supermarket channel, which hinders small, rainfed farms. Most of the growers participating as direct suppliers to that channel are a new group of medium-sized, fast-growing commercial farms managed by well-educated farmers and focused on the domestic supermarket market. Their heavy reliance on hired workers benefits small farmers via the labor market.     

尊重农民土地权益，适度推进农地规模经营

发达国家农业发展的历程表明,农地规模经营能够加快农业产业化和现代化的进程,增加农民收入和农业产出。中国目前亦处在发展现代农业的关键时刻,因此,适度推进规模经营是农业发展的必然趋势。值得注意的是,在推动规模经营的过程中必须切实保护好农民的权益,做到在尊重农民土地权益的基础上,适度推动农地的规模经营。     

农村土地产权抵押融资的联立选择行为及其影响因素分析--基于不同兼业程度农户的调查

文章选取宁夏平罗501户农户实地调研数据,采用双变量Probit模型,对不同兼业程度农户和金融机构土地抵押联立选择行为及其供求因素进行分析,结果表明：当地普遍存在信贷需求,由于信贷供给抑制原因,农户土地抵押贷款可得性比例偏低。相较于纯农户和一兼农户,二兼农户土地贷款意愿可能性高,贷款可得性也更大;影响农户土地抵押既有共同因素也存在一定差异,其中农户教育程度、产品期限合理性和对抵押政策认知是影响不同农户参与土地抵押的共同决定性因素;金融机构土地抵押供给更多是考虑不同农户的年龄、教育程度和信用记录等变量。     

Producing and Procuring Horticultural Crops with Chinese Characteristics: The Case of Northern China

The main goal of our paper is to understand what types of farmers have been able to participate in the horticultural revolution, how they interact with markets and how supply chains affect their production decisions and incomes. We also want to understand if the rise of supermarkets has changed supply chains. Our analysis uses spatially sampled data from 200 communities and 500 households in the Greater Beijing area. In contrast to fears of some researchers, we find small and poor farmers actively participate in the emergence of China’s horticulture economy. Moreover, there has been almost no penetration of modern wholesalers or retailers into rural communities.