Enhancement of value investing strategies based on financial statement variables: the German evidence

This paper examines the added-value of combining traditional valuation ratios with each other as well as with some financial statement variables in the German stock markets during the 2000–2015 period. The results show that combination pays off and, moreover, that the benefits of combination are greater in Germany than in most other developed stock markets. Particularly, we find strong evidence of the added-value of using Piotroski’s F-score as a supplementary selection criterion for value stocks as well as for low-accrual stocks. Our results show further that the F-score also boosts the efficacy of other valuation ratios besides the book-to-price ratio. In addition, the inclusion of F-score besides a relative value measure tends to increase the average market equity of portfolio firms. The decomposition of the full-sample-period performance into separate bull- and bear-period performance shows clearly that the better performance of F-score-boosted portfolios is mostly attributable to their outperformance during bearish periods, even though on average, they also generate higher bull-period returns than the comparable value portfolios formed without F-score. The use of F-score as a supplementary criterion also increases the proportion of stocks that earn above-market-average returns during the subsequent holding period. For the first time in the financial literature, we also document a strong relationship between high F-score stocks and momentum stocks.     

Erklärung der privaten Krankenversicherungsnachfrage anhand ökonomischer und psychologischer Einflussfaktoren

To be able to plan measures insales planning successfully, informations are necessary about the expected trend of demand in the future. In this respecttheoretical funded andempirical relevant correlations between exogenous influencing factors and the process of demand must be systematically explored. Consequently for the private health insurance aglobal model was developed, which is the basis for presenting exemplarily an approach of explanation for the health cost insurance. Via this approach theshort-term fluctuations in the trend of demand, which were noticed in the past, can be traced satisfactorily. In this context besideseconomical alsopsychological influences like attitudes and expectations must be explicitly integrated in the approach of explanation. Naturally also the effects ofsociopolitical events, which are relevant to demand, were included in the analysis, especially as the process of demand for private health insurance is substantially marked by sociopolitical legislation.     

The benefits of specific risk-factor disclosures

Practitioners have long criticized risk-factor disclosures in the 10-K as generic and boilerplate. In response, regulators emphasize the importance of being specific. By using a computing algorithm, this paper establishes a new measure (Specificity) to quantify the level of specificity of firms’ qualitative risk-factor disclosures. We first examine determinants of variations in Specificity, and document that firms with high proprietary costs provide less specific risk-factor disclosures. More importantly, we find that, controlling for numerous determinants, the market reaction to the 10-K filing is positively and significantly associated with Specificity. In addition, our results suggest that analysts are better able to assess fundamental risk when firms’ risk-factor disclosures are more specific. Together, these findings suggest that more specific risk-factor disclosures benefit users of financial statements.     

The effects on investment incentives of an allowance for corporate equity tax system: the Belgian case as an example

The Modigliani–Miller theorem serves as the standard finance paradigm on corporate capital structure and managerial decision making. Implicitly, it is assumed that the market possesses full information about the firm. However, if firm managers have insider information, they may attempt to ‘signal’ changes in the firm’s financial structure and, in competitive equilibrium, shareholders will draw deductions from such signals. Empirical work shows that the value of underlying firms rises with leverage because investors expect such firms to implement positive NPV projects. We empirically examine this view using a sample of debt issue announcements by publicly traded firms listed on the London Stock Exchange. We argue that the timing of debt issues is fundamental in determining the relationship between leverage and risk-adjusted returns. We show that an announcing firm’s intrinsic value may not rise depending on when management publicly ‘signals’ changes in their firm’s capital structure. Specifically, we show that risk-adjusted returns rise positively for firms that make debt announcements during normal economic conditions while they tend to decline for firms making debt announcements during recessionary periods. During recessionary periods, market risk and loss aversion rise and investors focus less on the potential growth of debt announcing firms and focus more on potential losses instead. We conclude that the timing of new debt is of paramount importance and managers’ inability to prudently time such announcements can lead to exacerbated levels of systematic risk coupled with a significant erosion in shareholder wealth.     

Strong Increases in Downside Risk Aversion

A ranking of risk preferences is of economic interest insofar as it leads to unambiguous comparative statics predictions, and for this to be the case, the ranking must be a strict partial ordering. The ranking by greater risk aversion meets this demand at the second order, and yields a variety of well-known predictions concerning the effect of greater risk aversion on demands for insurance and risky assets, among many other applications. There has been less success at the third order, where ranking preferences by aversion to downside risk has not produced a strict partial ordering. The problem is that account has not been taken of the fact that an increase in downside risk aversion must induce changes in risk aversion as well. We propose a definition of stronger downside risk aversion that does yield a strict partial ordering by requiring a nested increase in both second- and third-order risk aversion, so that v is more strongly downside risk averse than u if v is more risk averse and more downside risk averse than u. We demonstrate that v being more strongly downside risk averse than u is characterized by v never liking any change in the probability distribution for y that induces a third-order stochastic dominance deterioration in the distribution for u(y). We apply the definition to obtain intuitive comparative statics predictions in the precautionary saving problem, and relate the definition to alternatives proposed in the literature.     

Impact of website characteristics on relationship quality: a comparison of banks financial cooperatives

This study seeks to investigate differences exhibited by bank customers and members of financial cooperatives respecting website characteristics (website design, convenience, information quality, ease of use and security/confidentiality) and their impact on online relationship quality (composed of trust, commitment and satisfaction). An online survey was conducted with 476 banking sector customers (banks and financial cooperatives), followed by a confirmatory factors analysis and multigroup analysis using EQS 6.2 software. Results evidence a significant difference in terms of website design and security/confidentiality. The impact of these variables on relationship quality proves significantly higher in the case of banks. This study submits that web strategies used by banks and financial cooperatives to develop online relationship quality may vary based on the type of organization.     

Media Coverage and the Cross-section of Stock Returns

By reaching a broad population of investors, mass media can alleviate informational frictions and affect security pricing even if it does not supply genuine news. We investigate this hypothesis by studying the cross-sectional relation between media coverage and expected stock returns. We find that stocks with no media coverage earn higher returns than stocks with high media coverage even after controlling for well-known risk factors. These results are more pronounced among small stocks and stocks with high individual ownership, low analyst following, and high idiosyncratic volatility. Our findings suggest that the breadth of information dissemination affects stock returns.     

Zur Risikoanalyse von Hedgefonds: Ein datenanalytischer Ansatz

Hedge fund returns have a number of specific features compared to traditional investments which result in problems when applying traditional methods of risk analysis (Markowitz portfolio selection theory, Sharpe Ratio, value at risk calculation based on normal returns). These problems have to be considered adequately by insurance companies when constructing internal risk models and performing risk management for hedge funds in their investment.The present paper has its focus on the departure of hedge fund returns from the normality hypothesis, especially with respect to the statistical quantities skewness and kurtosis (fat tail problem). A statistical analysis of hedge fund index returns gives evidence that the majority of hedge fund returns show substantial departures from normality. In addition, the analysis shows that hedge fund returns are adequately represented by the family of GH-distributions developed in exploratory data analysis. Following this result a risk analysis of hedge fund strategies is performed on the basis of the GH-value at risk.     

Idiosyncratic Risk,Investor Base,and Returns

Using four different proxies for a firm's investor base we demonstrate that idiosyncratic risk premiums are larger for neglected stocks and smaller or economically insignificant for visible stocks. Since neglected stocks have greater idiosyncratic volatility (IV), the total IV risk premium (price × quantity) for neglected stocks will be greater than that of visible stocks. Additionally, we find a positive size effect and negative beta effect after controlling for IV. Overall, our results provide strong support for Merton's theory that market segmentation induced by incomplete information is an important component of the influence of IV in the cross‐section of returns.     

Industry Concentration,Firm Efficiency and Average Stock Returns: Evidence from Australia

This study examines the relationship between industry concentration and level of firm efficiency and their effect on cross-sectional stock returns in Australian market. Our analysis shows that industry concentration and firm efficiency have independent effects on stock returns. By forming 25 double-sorted portfolios based on industry concentration and firm efficiency, INEFFICIENT firms in concentrated industry earn highest stock returns, while EFFICIENT firms in concentrated industry earn lowest stock returns. Also we find that industry concentration appears to be associated with market share while efficiency has a greater effect on firm earnings. In our cross-sectional regressions, industry concentration shows a positive relationship with average stock returns while firm efficiency shows a negative association with average stock returns. The concentration and efficiency effects are persistent throughout the sample period and is robust after controlling for size and book-to-market.     

Information demand and stock market volatility

We study information demand and supply at the firm and market level using data for 30 of the largest stocks traded on NYSE and NASDAQ. Demand is approximated in a novel manner from weekly internet search volume time series drawn from the recently released Google Trends database. Our paper makes contributions in four main directions. First, although information demand and supply tend to be positively correlated, their dynamic interactions do not allow conclusive inferences about the information discovery process. Second, demand for information at the market level is significantly positively related to historical and implied measures of volatility and to trading volume, even after controlling for market return and information supply. Third, information demand increases significantly during periods of higher returns. Fourth, analysis of the expected variance risk premium confirms for the first time empirically the hypothesis that investors demand more information as their level of risk aversion increases.     

Towards a better understanding of mobile banking: the impact of customer experience on trust and commitment

In the current context of ubiquitous connectedness through portable mobile devices and services, it is important to comprehend more fully the nature of consumer/bank interactions and relationships. At the same time, firms in the service sector are trying to provide customers with impactful positive experiences. This article examines the impact of mobile banking experience on trust and commitment based on the customer experience dimensions defined by Schmitt and expanded to include the negative aspect of the affective dimension. A total of 396 panellists of a recognized Canadian research firm responded to a self-administered online questionnaire. Findings demonstrate that the cognitive and negative affective dimensions of mobile experience impact trust, whereas the positive affective/sensory dimension influences commitment. The behavioural and social dimensions do not have significant impacts. This study enriches the theoretical corpus of knowledge in customer experience, relationship marketing and m-banking literature, lending practical implications for mobile services managers. Financial institutions, for example, should offer sensory mobile applications designed to appeal to the eye or to the touch (positive affective/sensory dimension), provide tools and information intended to arouse user curiosity and provoke reflection (cognitive dimension), while avoiding negative experiences which can lead to damaging feelings/emotions such as disappointment and anger (negative affective dimension).     

Trading Volume and Cross-Autocorrelations in Stock Returns

This paper finds that trading volume is a significant determinant of the lead-lag patterns observed in stock returns. Daily and weekly returns on high volume portfolios lead returns on low volume portfolios, controlling for firm size. Nonsynchronous trading or low volume portfolio autocorrelations cannot explain these findings. These patterns arise because returns on low volume portfolios respond more slowly to information in market returns. The speed of adjustment of individual stocks confirms these findings. Overall, the results indicate that differential speed of adjustment to information is a significant source of the cross-autocorrelation patterns in short-horizon stock returns.     

The role of electronic word of mouth,conventional media,and subjective norms on the intention to purchase <Emphasis Type="Italic">Sharia</Emphasis> insurance services

The aim of this study was to investigate the effect of electronic word of mouth (eWOM) and conventional media on subjective norms and intention to purchase Sharia insurance in Indonesian Muslim society. The research data consisted of 458 Muslim clients who were members of an online community and also policy holders of Sharia insurance in the three largest cities in Indonesia: Jakarta, Semarang, and Surabaya. This study used purposive sampling and structural equation modeling. The research showed that eWOM and conventional media can affect subjective norms. Additionally, subjective norms have a significant effect on the intention to purchase among Sharia insurance customers. This study validated the importance of the variables of eWOM and conventional media in influencing subjective norms and intention to purchase. For Sharia insurance company management, this study can serve as a very useful reference in drafting and formulating campaign strategies. This study also justifies the integrated relationship between eWOM and conventional media with subjective norms and intention to purchase Sharia insurance.     

Grundfragen zu Anzeige-, Auskunfts- und Aufklärungsobliegenheiten nach dem VVG 2008

This article analyzes the disputed legal nature of the duty to notify and the duty to disclose information according to sections 30 et seq. of the German Insurance Contract Act (VVG). To the extent to which the aforementioned legal provisions impose such obligations on a third party, the author reaches the conclusion that they are to be regarded as true legal obligations, i.e. their breach may result in damage claims. As to the policyholder, however, the legal provisions must be qualified as statutory warranties (so-called Obliegenheiten) without sanctions. Therefore, in order to sanction a policyholder’s breach of his obligations, the contracting parties have to turn the statutory Obliegenheiten into contractual Obliegenheiten, which are then subject to section 28 VVG. In the second part of the article the author addresses the scope of application and the content of the Obliegenheit to instruct the policyholder according to section 28 subsection 4 VVG. This Obliegenheit is imposed on the insurer as a requirement for the sanction of a breach of the contractual duties to provide information and to disclose by the policyholder.     

Tests of investor learning models using earnings innovations and implied volatilities

This paper investigates alternative models of learning to explain changes in uncertainty surrounding earnings innovations. As a proxy for investor uncertainty, we use model-free implied volatilities; as a proxy for earnings innovations, representing signals of firm performance likely to drive investor perceptions of uncertainty, we use quarterly unexpected earnings benchmarked to the consensus forecast. We document that uncertainty declines on average after the release of quarterly earnings announcements and this decline is attenuated by the magnitude of the earnings innovation. This latter result is consistent with models that incorporate signal magnitude as a factor driving changes in uncertainty. Most important, we document that signals deviating sufficiently from expectations lead to net increases in uncertainty. Critically, this result suggests that models allowing for posterior variance to be greater than prior variance even after signal revelation [e.g., regime shifts in Pastor and Veronesi (Annu Rev Financ Econ 1:361–381, 2009)] better describe how investors incorporate new information.     

Punitive Damages in Bad Faith Actions Against Insurers in the USA: The Impact of <Emphasis Type="Italic">Campbell v. State Farm</Emphasis>

This article provides an overview of the history and practice of punitive damages in the USA, including U.S. Supreme Court resistance to punitive damages beginning in the 1990s. The 2003 Campbell decision continued this doctrinal trend in an case of seemingly egregious insurer “bad faith.” Examining insurance bad faith cases after Campbell, it appears that the Court’s decision had a practical impact as well as a doctrinal impact. Since Campbell, insurers appear to have enjoyed greater judicial protection against punitive damages in bad faith cases, expanding a trend discernable after the Court’s 1996 BMW v. Gore decision. However, the 50 states have not modified their jury instructions on punitive damages since these decisions, seemingly ceding this area to the courts as a matter of federal constitutional review. The 2007 Williams v. Philip Morris decision continued the trend in a non-insurance case, as the court overturned a large punitive award against a tobacco company.     

How do CEO incentives affect corporate tax planning and financial reporting of income taxes?

We examine how different accounting metrics used to evaluate CEO performance for annual bonuses affect the level of corporate tax planning as well as financial reporting for income taxes. We predict and find that firms using cash flow metrics report lower GAAP and cash effective tax rates (ETR) than firms using earnings metrics. We also find that firms using after-tax earnings metrics report lower GAAP ETRs but similar cash ETRs as firms using pre-tax earnings metrics. Further analyses show that firms using after-tax earnings metrics are more likely to designate foreign earnings as permanently reinvested and have lower discretionary reserves for tax uncertainty. Hence, it appears that both types of firms engage in similar levels of tax planning, but firms evaluating CEOs with after tax-earnings metrics incentivize different financial reporting choices.     

Are idiosyncratic volatility and MAX priced in the Canadian market?

The negative relationship between realized idiosyncratic volatility (RIvol) and future returns uncovered by Ang et al. (2006) for the U.S. market has been attributed to return reversals. For the Canadian market where return reversals are considerably less important, we find that RIvol is positively related to future returns, even after controlling for risk loadings, illiquidity and reversals. Unlike the findings of Bali et al. (2001) for the U.S. market, we find that the relationship between extreme positive returns (MAX) and future returns for the Canadian market is positive and that idiosyncratic volatility continues to be consistently positively related to future returns after controlling for MAX. We find evidence that suggests that reversals for stocks with extreme daily returns are confined to (typically small) stocks with low institutional holdings.     

Do equity-based <Emphasis Type="Italic">Sukuk</Emphasis> structures in Islamic capital markets manifest the objectives of Shariah??

The Islamic capital market is an important component of the overall Islamic financial system especially in providing an element of liquidity to the otherwise illiquid assets. Like its conventional counterpart, Islamic capital markets complement the investment role of the Islamic banking sector in raising funds for long-term investment. These long-term investments are facilitated through various Shariah contracts and instruments ensuring efficient mobilisation of resources and their optimal allocation. This article aims at reviewing equity-based Sukuk structure, which is one of the most popular instruments used in Islamic capital market today. This article argues that some innovations made in structuring Sukuk, which try to achieve the same economic outcome like conventional instruments, distort the vision of Islamic economics based on justice and equitability. These visions are deeply inscribed in the objectives of Shariah, also known as Maqasid al-Shariah. This distortion stems from the restricted view of understanding Shariah, by only focussing on the legal forms of a contract rather than the substance especially when structuring a financial product. The overemphasis on form over substance leads to potential abuse of Shariah principles in justifying certain contracts, which in fact are contradictory to the Shariah text and ultimately undermining the higher objectives of Shariah. In the final analysis, this article concludes that the substance of a contract that has greater implications to the realisation of Maqasid al-Shariah should be equally looked into. Otherwise, Islamic finance just appears as an exercise of semantics; the functions and operations are really no different from conventional banks, except in the use of euphemisms to disguise interest and circumvent the many Shariah prohibitions.