Evolutionary Learning in Signalling Games

We study equilibrium selection by evolutionary learning in monotone two-type signalling games. The learning process we study extends that introduced by Young (1993, Econometrica61, 57–84) to deal with incomplete information and sequential moves; it thus involves stochastic trembles. For vanishing trembles the process gives rise to strong selection among sequential equilibria: if the game has separating equilibria, then in the long run only play according to the so-called Riley equilibrium will be observed frequently. Journal of Economic Literature Classification Number: C72.     

A Model of Reputation in Cheap Talk*

We study a dynamic game of advice where the sender's preferences are unknown to the receiver. The novel feature of the model is that there is more than one type of biased sender. We show that the more equal the proportions of different biases in the sender population, the greater the credibility of the information transmitted. Somewhat surprisingly, however, we also find that the receiver does not benefit from this equality. We discuss our results in the context of political lobbying and show that institutions that increase transparency lower lobbyists' incentives for truthtelling, but unambiguously promote the policymaker's welfare.     

基于孵化网络声誉的科技企业孵化器与初创企业动态合作策略研究

基于孵化器和初创企业孵化网络,应用微分对策理论,在Nash非合作博弈、Stackelberg博弈和协同合作博弈3种情形下,考察孵化器与初创企业为提高孵化网络声誉所付出的最大努力,并对反馈均衡结果进行比较分析。结果表明,双方在协同合作博弈情形下付出了较高努力,且所获收益高于Nash非合作博弈和Stackelberg博弈情形下的收益水平。     

职业经理人声誉评价模型构建及应用研究

通过问卷调查及因子分析建立了包括战略管理能力、个人特征、社交能力、领导能力、财务业绩、任职背景、变革能力、职业精神、道德和个人品质10个一级指标及36个二级指标的评价体系,通过专家问卷、层次分析法和模糊综合评判法计算出两级影响因子权重,构建了职业经理人声誉评价模型,并通过一个实例说明了具体运用的方法。     

网络商务声誉博弈——基于网络欺诈模型的数理分析

网络商务声誉的研究对于现代商务交易的繁荣和进步具有紧迫性和战略性的意义。文章试图建立一个基于网络商务欺诈动机条件的数理模型,并通过该模型的分析,定量给出一种临界条件,以确保在线销售者不会出现欺诈而始终保证诚信行为,同时利用这种较好的声誉获取更高的利润,进而促使互联网在线交易商得以获取较好的战略声誉博弈结果。     

动态不一致性及政府声誉与通货膨胀防范

本文阐述了货币政策的动态不一致性及其代表性的巴罗-戈登模型,在分析了克雷普斯·威尔逊声誉模型的基础上,指出政府在一定程度上能解决货币政策动态不一致性问题,并认为通货膨胀目标制是一种成功防范动态不一致性的制度安排.     

Transboundary Pollution in a Dynamic Game Model

We consider a dynamic game model in which N countries produce a single product that is not traded. Production results in emissions that accumulate a stock of pollution in each country. Households in each country derive utility from consuming the product but face costs depending on the level of the country-specific stock of pollution as well as the pollution stocks of the other countries. We distinguish three different cost scenarios. For all three, we show the existence of a Markov perfect equilibrium (MPE) and derive the collusive outcome. The MPEs are associated with the case where countries fail to coordinate their policies, while the collusive solutions correspond to the coordinated policy.
JEL Classification No.: C73.     

Efficient Sorting in a Dynamic Adverse-Selection Model

We discuss a class of markets for durable goods where efficiency (or approximate efficiency) is obtained despite the presence of information asymmetries. In the model, the number of times a good has changed hands (the vintage of the good) is an accurate signal of its quality, each consumer self-selects into obtaining the vintage that the social planner would have assigned to her, and consumers' equilibrium trading behaviour in secondary markets is not subject to adverse selection. We show that producers have the incentive to choose contracts that lead to the efficient allocation, and to supply the efficient output. We also provide a contrast between leasing contracts, resale contracts, and different kinds of rental contracts. Resale contracts do not lead to the efficient allocation. A specific kind of rental contract provides the appropriate incentives to consumers.     

The credibility game: Reputation and rational cooperation in a changing population

Labor-managed firms often depend on voluntary cooperation to generate efficient levels of labor input. This paper shows how cooperation in Prisoner's Dilemma-like situations can be an equilibrium outcome, when rational individuals act so as to preserve reputations for cooperating. The theory developed here implies that (a) voluntary cooperation will be negatively related to population turnover, and (b) the relationship of community size to voluntary cooperation will have an inverted-U shape.     

基于声誉约束的民间金融组织动态博弈及其风险防范

民间金融组织的设立来自于发起者承诺的高收益和参与者期望的高回报,这是一个双方博弈的过程。发起者违约惩罚的贴现值和合约执行成本是民间金融组织能否顺畅运行的主要因素。     

Trade and Indeterminacy in a Dynamic General Equilibrium Model

This paper introduces sector-specific externalities in the Heckscher-Ohlin two-country dynamic general equilibrium model to show that indeterminacy of the equilibrium path in the world market can occur. Under certain conditions in terms of factor intensities, there are multiple equilibrium paths from the same initial distribution of capital in the world market, and the distribution of capital in the limit differs among equilibrium paths. One equilibrium path converges to a long-run equilibrium in which the international ranking of factor endowment ratios differs from the initial ranking; another equilibrium path maintains the initial ranking and converges to another long-run equilibrium. Since the path realized is indeterminate, so is the long-run trade pattern. Therefore, the Long-Run Heckscher-Ohlin prediction is vulnerable to the introduction of externality. Journal of Economic Literature Classification Numbers: E13, E32, F11, F43.     

Reputation building in a monetary policy game

This paper examines the notion of reputation building on the part of the central bank as a means of eliminating socially suboptimal inflation rates that arise in monetary policy games. The framework developed here explicitly models the behavior of wage setters, and it is shown that in the Nash equilibrium these private agents do not attain their desired outcome. Hence, wage setters have an incentive for engaging in a reputation-building game with the central bank. In this game, wage setters are allowed to select “optimally” a reputation based wage strategy, thereby making the strategy choice endogenous. This framework thus lays the groundwork for models in which the private sector behaves as a strategic player. It is shown that there exists a wage contract resembling an indexing arrangement which eliminates the suboptimal inflation rate. Finally, a discussion on the ways of restricting the number of permissible solutions to this game is presented.     

Business Cycle Synchronization in Europe: Evidence from a Dynamic Factor Model

This paper revisits the effect of the European Economic and Monetary Union (EMU) on the extent of business cycle synchronization across its member states. A dynamic latent factor model is used to identify the ‘regional’ effect of the euro area on output growth and inflation dynamics across European countries. The results of variance decomposition analysis confirm that both output growth and inflation tended to be more synchronized among European countries during the run-up to the EMU, but there is no strong evidence to support the argument that the ‘regional’ effects prevailed after 1999.     

Outsourcing and Wage Inequality in a Dynamic Product Cycle Model

This paper constructs a dynamic North–South trade model with outsourcing and endogenous innovation. Production of high quality goods is first performed in the North (Northern phase), then split between the North and the South (Outsourcing phase), and finally shifted to the South (Southern phase). This cycle is reignited whenever a Northern firm innovates a higher quality product. We find that an increase in the fraction of outsourced production raises the Northern skill premium unambiguously, while raising the Southern skill premium if and only if the skill intensity of outsourced production is higher than that of local Southern production.     

Calvin's Reformation in Geneva: Self and Social Signalling

As Weber ( 1904 ) recognized, Calvinistic beliefs about predestination may constitute a powerful incentive for good works; an individual wishes to receive assurances about her future prospects of salvation, and good works may provide a positive signal about such prospects. These beliefs can in turn create a social pressure to behave well, as good works can also signal to others that individuals belong to the “elect” and are therefore likely to behave well in social interactions. Moreover, the Consistory, an institution created by Calvin to monitor and publicize individuals' behavior, can allow for such social signalling. We analyze these self and social signalling incentives, and show how religions affect levels of cooperation and coordination.     

组织学习的动态性与追赶企业的动态组织学习

在回顾有关组织学习不同类型及其动态性变化的文献基础上,根据发展中国家企业在技术追赶中的阶段特征,研究了技术追赶的阶段转换和组织学习动态变化之间的协调一致性规律,从而为发展中国家的技术追赶型企业组织学习动态管理提供理论参考。     

中国产品质量监管的声誉模型分析

当前中国商品市场上假冒伪劣现象严重,损害消费者权益的事件层出不穷.在两阶段声誉模型中,消费者运用贝叶斯法则推断企业诚信状况并决定下期的购买行为,此时声誉力量可以约束企业的投机主义倾向,将造假企业驱逐出市场.而对重点行业加强监管、加大处罚力度、鼓励消费者投诉,可以促进市场净化,加快诚信社会的建设步伐.     

Economic Growth and Labor Standards: Evidence from a Dynamic Panel Data Model

The relations between economic growth and international labor standards are explored in a panel of 121 countries from 1974 to 2004. A large literature has empirically tested the neoclassical and endogenous growth models using cross-sectional or panel regressions. Here, the growth model is augmented with labor standards. A dynamic panel data model is used to account for the endogeneity of the determinants of economic growth and labor standards. Two measures of labor standards are used: the rate of work injuries and the rate of strikes and lockouts . The estimation results show that higher levels of labor standards are associated with higher rates of economic growth.     

Pairwise-Difference Estimation of a Dynamic Optimization Model

We develop a new estimation methodology for dynamic optimization models with unobserved shocks and deterministic accumulation of the observed state variables. Investment models are an important example of such models. Our pairwise-difference approach exploits two common features of these models: (1) the monotonicity of the agent's decision (policy) function in the shocks, conditional on the observed state variables; and (2) the state-contingent nature of optimal decision making which implies that, conditional on the observed state variables, the variation in observed choices across agents must be due to randomness in the shocks across agents. We illustrate our procedure by estimating a dynamic trading model for the milk production quota market in Ontario, Canada.     

The Nonequivalence of Tariffs and Quotas in a Dynamic Trade Model

The paper provides a novel (and old) argument for the nonequivalence of tariffs and quotas, based on the famous paper by Hotelling published in 1931. Unlike tariffs, quantitative restrictions are inherently dynamic. As long as the foreign exporter earns positive marginal profits, he raises their present value by frontloading sales. As a result, unlike a tariff, equilibrium with a quota exhibits quantity and price dispersion over time. The dispersion may be significant even with small discount rates.