The Effect of Mortgage Price and Default Risk on Mortgage Spreads

Variations over time in mortgage yield spreads should reflect changes in the underlying prepayment option value; moreover, the relationship between mortgage yield spreads and interest rate dynamics should weaken as the value of the borrowers prepayment option declines. We verify this hypothesis through an empirical analysis of residential mortgage yield spread behavior, and we also present evidence that the strength of the relationship between mortgage spreads and interest rate dynamics weakens (strengthens) as the level of default risk increases (decreases). This result is consistent with the competing risks effect between a borrowers option to prepay or default. Our results demonstrate the importance of accounting for mortgage price discount to par as well as default risk when developing time series of mortgage yields.     

Borrower Self-Selection,Underwriting Costs,and Subprime Mortgage Credit Supply

In the U.S., households participate in two very different types of credit markets. Personal lending is characterized by continuous risk-based pricing in which lenders offer households a continuous distribution of borrowing possibilities based on estimates of their creditworthiness. This contrasts sharply with mortgage markets where lenders specialize in specific risk categories of borrowers and mortgage supply is stepwise linear. The contrast between continuous lending for personal loans and discrete lending by specialized lenders for mortgage credit has led to concerns regarding the efficiency and equity of mortgage lending. This paper sheds both theoretical and empirical light on the differences in the two credit markets. The theory section demonstrates why, in a perfectly competitive credit market where all lenders have the same underwriting technology, mortgage credit supply curves are stepwise linear and lenders specialize in prime or subprime lending. The empirical section then provides evidence that borrowers are being effectively sorted based on risk characteristics by the market.     

Credit Scoring and Mortgage Securitization: Implications for Mortgage Rates and Credit Availability

This article develops a model of the interactions between borrowers, originators, and a securitizer in primary and secondary mortgage markets. In the secondary market, the securitizer adds liquidity and plays a strategic game with mortgage originators. The securitizer sets the price at which it will purchase mortgages and the credit-score standard that qualifies a mortgage for purchase. We investigate two potential links between securitization and mortgage rates. First, we analyze whether a portion of the liquidity premium gets passed on to borrowers in the form of a lower mortgage rate. Somewhat surprisingly, we find very plausible conditions under which securitization fails to lower the mortgage rate. Second, and consistent with recent empirical results, we derive an inverse correlation between the volume of securitization and mortgage rates. However, the causation is reversed from the standard rendering. In our model, a decline in the mortgage rate causes increased securitization rather than the other way around.     

Skewness of Returns, Capital Adequacy, and Mortgage Lending

We calibrate a simulation model of credit value-at-risk for mortgage lending to UK experience. Simulations to capture the skewness of returns that might arise in the context of a financial crisis suggest that the IRB calculations of the new Basel Accord can substantially understate prudential capital adequacy. The same model shows that raising capital requirements has only a small impact on bank funding costs. We conclude that Pillar 2 supervisory review should increase capital requirements above IRB levels for secured bank assets—those whose returns can potentially fall furthest, relative to other, normally “riskier” assets, in extreme outcomes. JEL classification: G21, G28, R31. Presented at the December 2003 conference at the University of Tor Vegata, Rome. We are grateful for comments from William Lang, Mario Onarato, Larry Wall, and from an anonymous referee. All errors and omissions are our own responsibility. “The lady doth protest too much, methinks. The Queen's response to the players in Hamlet, Act 3, scene 2.     

Under-specified Models and Detection of Discrimination: A Case Study of Mortgage Lending

This study examines how omitted variables affect underwriting models the OCC estimates during fair lending examinations. The purpose is to assess the effects of omitted variable bias common to most studies of discrimination in mortgage lending. The results show omitted variables have an important impact on both the estimate of the effect of race and on the identification of outliers for review. Further, there appears to be no consistent patterns to the direction of these impacts. This suggests that it is inappropriate to make generalizations concerning the direction of bias based on assumptions about correlations between omitted variables and race.     

Appraisal Quality and Residential Mortgage Default: Evidence from Alaska

We empirically examine the effect of appraisal quality on subsequent mortgage loan performance using data from the high volatility housing market of Alaska in the 1980s. We develop measures of appraisal quality by computing the residual between a hedonic estimate of house value using available information from other appraisals compared to actual ex ante appraised value. We then estimate proportional hazard models of mortgage default and find that several measures of appraisal quality, particularly appraised value in excess of hedonic estimates, are significantly related to default risk. Using valuations subsequent to loan default, we are also able to evaluate how well house price indices perform in terms of estimating current loan-to-value and offer some additional evidence on the controversy over the role of net equity versus trigger events as determinants of mortgage default. We also show that defaults are related to ex ante measures of housing market conditions, with additional implications for underwriting policies and the current industry trend away from traditional appraisal and toward automated valuation.     

The Structural Relation Between Mortgage and Market Interest Rates

This paper analyzes the dynamic relationship between primary and secondary mortgage markets and the short-term and long-term market interest rates. Using a series of monthly data on fixed rate mortgage rates and GNMA rates, we explore the dependence and speed of adjustment in these primary and secondary mortgage rates to each other as well as to the long and short-term government rates. The results indicate that residential mortgage rates in general, appear to follow the long-term rate and are not very sensitive to movements in the short-term interest rate.     

建立农村个人信用体系是新农村建设的重要举措

目前,新农村建设中亟需解决的问题是地方政府缺少对农民个人有针对性的信息掌握。建立农村个人信用体系能提高政府和基层机构解决农民问题的效率,规范和促进交易,帮助农民融资,能给农民进城发展提供平等的机遇,从而推进社会主义新农村的建设。     

Sorting, Firm Characteristics, and Time-varying Risk: An Econometric Analysis

We show that sorting reveals the time-varying market risk exposuresof the firm-specific investment opportunity set. Sorting onthe basis of firm characteristics uncovers information on firm-specificdistress or growth, and this leads to more efficient estimationof conditional risk sensitivity. We demonstrate the effectivenessof the sorting methodology with an empirical exercise that teststhe conditional capital asset pricing model (CAPM). When measuredproperly using sorting and firm characteristics, conditionalbetas, along with size and the book-market ratio, are significantdrivers of expected returns.     

个人消费信贷:中美比较与借鉴

美国发展个人消费信贷业务的主要经验是建立完善的个人信用制度和相关法律制度以保护借贷双方的权益,开发个人消费信贷二级市场使消费信贷市场具备再发展的原动力,政府积极参与以弥补市场的不足,商业消费信贷与银行信用密切结合促进消费信贷发展.中国个人消费信贷发展迅速,但相对来说仍存在许多不足,主要是:信用体系和法律制度不够健全,产品同质化程度较高,创新能力不强,个人消费信贷发放机构较单一,信贷手续繁琐等.我国应建立、健全有效的信用制度和法律体系,建立消费信贷二级市场,积极创造有利于消费信贷发展的外部政策环境,商业银行自身应加强消费信贷业务的创新.     

Determinants of Mortgage Default and Consumer Credit Use: The Effects of Foreclosure Laws and Foreclosure Delays

The mortgage default decision is part of a complex household credit management problem. We examine how factors affecting mortgage default spill over to other credit markets. As home equity turns negative, homeowners default on mortgages and home equity lines of credit at higher rates, whereas they prioritize repaying credit cards and auto loans. Larger unused credit card limits intensify the preservation of credit cards over housing debt. Although mortgage nonrecourse statutes increase default on all types of housing debt, they reduce credit card defaults. Foreclosure delays increase default rates for housing and nonhousing debts. Our analysis highlights the interconnectedness of debt repayment decisions.     

The Relationship Between Bank Risk and Earnings Management: Evidence from Japan

Using stock price data drawn from the 1990s in Japan, this paper empirically shows that bank risk is negatively associated with discretionary accruals, indicating that investors misinterpreted high reported earnings as favorable information about bank financial health. We also show that the negative relationship was very powerful prior to the major bank failures in late 1997 and 1998, but it diminished subsequent to the failures. We conclude that investors started to anticipate potential manipulation of financial reports by bank managers more rationally after the major bank failures.     

从个体理性到交往理性：东海铸锻担保圈风险的形成和化解

交往主体作为“经济人”,在市场的博弈过程中,追逐自身利益最大化是个体理性的选择,但在日常经济活动中,个体理性往往导致集体非理性结局。本文运用哈贝马斯的“交往理性”理论剖析了山东省聊城市东海铸锻破产案,在政府主导或外部力量适度干预下,通过谈判磋商,最终促进多家银行与企业达到交往理性的均衡状态,并据此提出了相关风险处置的顶层设计。     

银行信贷与房地产价格的关系——中国省级面板数据的实证分析

本文以银行信贷与房地产价格相关理论为基础,利用1999—2008年的省级面板数据,并运用单位根检验、协整检验以及误差修正模型对我国各个地区银行信贷与房地产价格关系进行短期和长期分析。研究发现:我国东、中和西部银行信贷与房地产价格都存在长期因果关系,在短期东部地区银行信贷对房地产价格的影响系数比较大,其次是西部,最后是中部,即在不同的区域条件约束下,银行信贷与房地产价格之间可能并无稳定一致的关系。在此基础上,提出了现阶段我国实施有差异的控制房价的相关政策和建议。     

The Relation Between SFAS No. 95 Cash Flows From Operations and Credit Risk

This study examines the relevance of Financial Accounting Standards (SFAS) No. 95 operating cash flow disclosures for assessing a primary component of firm risk, namely credit risk. We find that SFAS No. 95 operating cash flows is an important determinant of credit risk, measured by debt ratings, incremental to other profitability and risk–related information. We also find that operating cash flows have a stronger incremental relation to credit risk for firms with a larger proportion of long–term debt and larger firms with lower operating uncertainty. Interestingly, cash flows appear to have less incremental importance for firms in high tech and regulated industries.     

中国民间借贷风险研究——风险表现、成因剖析与对策建议

2011年,浙江、内蒙古、山东、河南、江苏、广东、福建、宁夏等省发生的几十起民间借贷风险事件带来的巨大社会震荡引起中央政府和金融管理部门的高度关注。本文详细阐述了我国民间借贷的风险表现,深入剖析了造成我国民间借贷风险的原因,并在此基础上提出应对民间借贷风险的对策建议。     

农村信用社信贷风险成因及其控制对策——基于与城市商业银行的比较分析

信贷风险直接制约着农村信用社的金融供给。本文以与城市商业银行的比较作为分析视角,在探讨农村信用社信贷风险形成原因的基础上,有针对性地提出了控制农村信用社信贷风险的对策。     

个人捐赠何以可为:慈善信息与组织信任的作用机制研究

捐赠作为慈善事业发展的基石,对社会发展和社会的良性运行具有重要意义。本文在实证调查基础上,运用OLS回归方法分析了慈善信息、组织信任与个人捐赠行为三者之间的关系。研究发现:慈善信息的获取对捐赠行为具有积极影响,其中通过新兴媒介获取慈善信息的影响远远大于通过传统媒介获取信息的影响;慈善信息的获取不仅直接影响个人的捐赠行为,而且可以通过慈善组织信任度这个中介变量间接影响个人捐赠行为。     

The Conditional Relationship Between Beta and Returns: A Reassessment

Abstract:  Several recent empirical tests of the Capital Asset Pricing Model have been based on the conditional relationship between betas and market returns. This paper shows that this method needs reconsideration. An adjusted version of this test is presented. It is then demonstrated that the adjusted technique has similar, or lower, power to the more easily implemented CAPM test of Fama and MacBeth (1973) if returns are normally distributed.     

加快建设中国特色第三支柱个人养老金制度:理论探讨与政策选择

第三支柱个人养老金是国家养老金体系的重要支柱,也是中国特色养老金融体系的有机组成部分。建立和发展个人养老金制度有利于缓解养老金领域发展不平衡不充分问题,夯实应对人口老龄化的社会财富储备。个人养老金的核心特征是个人主导和享受财税政策支持。从功能上看,个人养老金是养老金制度补充和收入补充,推动投资养老理念形成并促进资本市场完善。目前的第三支柱个人养老金试点政策在覆盖人群、税优设计和运行流程等方面存在问题,未来应统筹国家三支柱养老金体系建设,重视政府作用的发挥,制定与我国财税体制改革相适应、公平有效的财税政策,充分调动金融机构的积极性,并加强养老金融教育。