Nonparametric estimation and testing of stochastic discount factor

This paper attempts to estimate stochastic discount factor (SDF) proxies nonparametrically using the conditional Hansen–Jagannathan distance. Nonparametric estimation can not only avoid misspecification when dealing with nonlinearity in the model but also provide more precise information about the local properties of the estimators. Empirical studies show that our method performs better than the alternative parametric polynomial models, and furthermore, we find that the return on aggregate wealth can sufficiently explain the SDF proxies when one deals with nonlinearity appropriately.     

A multi-horizon comparison of density forecasts for the S&P 500 using index returns and option prices

We compare density forecasts of the S&P 500 index from 1991 to 2004, obtained from option prices and daily and 5-min index returns. Risk-neutral densities are given by using option prices to estimate diffusion and jump-diffusion processes which incorporate stochastic volatility. Three transformations are then used to obtain real-world densities. These densities are compared with historical densities defined by ARCH models. For horizons of two and four weeks the best forecasts are obtained from risk-transformations of the risk-neutral densities, while the historical forecasts are superior for the one-day horizon; our ranking criterion is the out-of-sample likelihood of observed index levels. Mixtures of the real-world and historical densities have higher likelihoods than both components for short forecast horizons.     

地方法人金融机构利率定价能力评估体系建设的实证研究——基于层次分析法的指标体系设计及应用

如何科学、客观、全面地对地方性法人金融机构的利率定价能力进行评估,是当前深入推进利率市场化不可回避的重要环节。本文试图在对利率定价能力相关基本概念进行归纳定义的基础上,综合分析了影响地方法人金融机构利率定价能力的一系列因素,运用层次分析法(AHP)建立了一套利率定价能力评估指标体系,从机制建设、贷款定价、风险管理、经营效益、外部条件等七个方面对地方法人金融机构利率定价能力进行评价,包括定性、定量共26个评价指标,对3家地方法人金融机构进行了实证分析,提出了对策建议。