中国政府债务可持续性和债务风险动态评估研究

债务杠杆率和债务可持续性是评估债务风险的两个重要指标。我国目前面临高政府债务杠杆率、高赤字率及经济下行压力。本文通过对债务杠杆率计算方法的分解以及对债务可持续性的分析发现:提高政府部门的投资效率将是降低当前政府部门债务杠杆的一个有效手段;当前国际所通用的债务上限标准并不适用于我国。本文还通过构建SVAR模型,进一步对我国债务情况进行了实证分析,发现财政赤字率和经济增长率的变化在当期对债务杠杆率产生的影响较小,其影响主要发生在其后的两到三年。针对这一分析结果,本文提出了相应的政策建议。     

美国主权债务风险探讨及启示

欧元区主权债务危机引起公众对发达经济体主权债务问题的担忧,并警醒了人们对美国主权债务风险的关注。本文通过分析美国财政赤字率、债务负担率、经常项目赤字占GDP比重、经济增长率、国债收益率等多个指标,度量美国主权债务风险,并提出我国应对美国主权债务危机的对策。     

国际金融动态

1．欧元区赤字倍增,威胁不仅局限于欧元区。4月26日,欧盟统计局首次披露欧盟27国和欧元区政府债务及预算赤字情况。欧元区2010年预算赤字占该地区GDP的比例为6％,略微低于2009年的6．3％,但显著高于2008年的2．0％,在两年内大增逾200％。政府债务方面,欧元区2010年的债务高达该地区GDP的85．1％,     

略论商业银行业务计划的编制方法

一、总体发展目标的设定 从银行管理者的角度,在目前的市场环境下,投资者的目标被进一步细化为资产(表内资产、表外资产)规模,资产质量和盈利能力(风险调整后的资产利润率)等等。 1、确定总体目标的因素分析 确定总体发展目标的核心是增长率,需要考虑外部的经济形势、考虑银行管理层可以控制的因素,考虑股东控制的因素,考虑配套的资源安排。 根据考虑因素的不同,年度计     

基于Logit模型的公司债务期限选择影响因素分析

公司在债务融资决策时会考虑许多因素,其中不同的债务期限安排是影响公司融资成本和融资效率的重要因素.本文基于公司内部特征因素,运用Logit二元选择模型对影响公司长期债务运用的因素进行回归,部分解释了我国公司债务期限结构的选择行为.     

债务可维持性理论述评

本文通过对国际货币基金组织和世界银行的债务分析方法和其他不同的债务分析方法进行比较,表明目前发展中国家外债分析方法的主要缺陷是没有考虑巨额外债和赤字对经济增长和宏观经济环境的影响。而解决这个问题需要一个更广泛的债务可维持性分析框架。     

我国地方债数据存在的问题、测算方法与政策建议

我国地方政府债务由于存在统计口径复杂、债务分散、数据敏感、隐性债务等问题,使得数据往往难以获取。本文在系统梳理地方债估计方法的基础上提出了三种地方债估计方法,根据我们的估算结果,发现以下特征:一是官方公布的数据和传统方法偏向于低估地方债,并且官方公布的数据较为笼统、难以细化。二是已有的地方债估计较为注重地方融资平台的债务,忽视了经常性债务的估算。三是已有研究偏向于估算全国层面的地方债务加总数据,缺乏对各省历年数据的估算。本文基于以上特征,提出了相应的政策建议。     

债务危机与李嘉图等价定理评析

从目前各国爆发的债务危机来看,李嘉图等价定理在现实生活中很难成立.因此,政府在筹措财政收入和调控经济运行时,不但要防范巨额债务、不可持续的赤字路径和财政机会主义下所带来的债务风险问题,更要依据当时的经济运行状况和宏观经济政策目标的要求正确选择征税或举债.     

金融风险、政府救助与主权信用风险

本文构建政府、企业、银行的三部门经济模型,研究政府救助行为对主权信用和金融风险的影响,理论模型指出政府对金融救助所增发的债务越多,财政缺口引发的主权信用风险越高;被救助银行作为政府债券的持有者和被担保者,其风险随着主权信用风险上升而上升。实证检验结果表明:在控制了保障性支出等经济社会因素后,政府债务增长率对主权信用违约互换价差存在显著的正向影响;在政府救助后,主权部门与金融部门之间形成了风险"闭环"。     

缸顾乡村村实现"零债务"

江苏兴化市缸顾乡在确保村村2002年当年收支无赤字的情况下,采取切实有效措施,积极化解村级债务。村级债权债务清收化解工作取得成效,至8月底,该乡化解债务550.32万元,占年初债务总额的100％,有8个村13个责任区实现“零债务”,占全乡行政村的100％。     

Debt and Taxes and Uncertainty

With a graduated personal tax schedule, Miller showed that there could be an equilibrium debt supply for the corporate sector as a whole. In the presence of uncertainty there is also a unique debt/equity ratio for each individual firm, and this ratio is related to the firm's operational risk characteristics. However, if firms merge and spin off in response to tax incentives, the identity of firms is ambiguous and only the corporate sector is a meaningful construct. These arguments are developed in both discrete and continuous models that employ extensions of the arbitrage-free pricing theory.     

教育与资本怎样的前景怎样的现实

来自政府的声音: "动员各种社会资源,发展教育" 此次论坛上财政部长助理张少春的发言是最受关注的发言之一.他的演讲传达出的信息有这样几方面:第一,谈到现实,他认为全社会对教育的巨大需求与我国公共投入不足已成为我国教育事业发展的突出矛盾.近年来,以公共部门投入为主,多渠道筹措教育经费的教育投入机制成为解决这一问题的重要途径,也使得公共部门与私营部门在教育领域的合作日益密切.第二,谈到前景,他认为,1.中国经济持续、快速的增长对高技能人才产生巨大的需求,这为私营部门的参与提供了广阔空间.2.随着公共财政职能的不断完善,财政资金将在各项教育事业中重新进行分配,进一步优化财政支出结构,提高资金的使用效率.在"十一五"期间,我国将把公共支出的重点转移到农村.我们将逐步把全体农村适龄儿童的义务教育全部纳入公共财政体制.     

Director gender and mergers and acquisitions

Does director gender influence CEO empire building? Does it affect the bid premium paid for target firms? Less overconfident female directors less overestimate merger gains. As a result, firms with female directors are less likely to make acquisitions and if they do, pay lower bid premia. Using acquisition bids by S&P 1500 companies during 1997–2009 we find that each additional female director is associated with 7.6% fewer bids, and each additional female director on a bidder board reduces the bid premium paid by 15.4%. Our findings support the notion that female directors help create shareholder value through their influence on acquisition decisions. We also discuss other possible interpretations of our findings.     

Political corruption and mergers and acquisitions

This research examines the relation between political corruption and mergers and acquisitions (M&As). We find that local corruption increases firm acquisitiveness but decreases firm targetiveness. The levels of corruption in acquirer areas relate positively to the bid premiums and negatively to the likelihood of deal completion. Corruption motivates acquiring firms to use excess cash for payment, which mitigates the negative effect of corruption on acquirer shareholder value. The evidence indicates that acquisitions help acquiring firms convert cash into hard-to-extract assets and relocate assets from the high to low corruption areas, thereby shielding their liquid assets from expropriation by local officials.     

East and west and north and south : A preliminary model

The Brandt report and other proposals for a new North-South world order continue to be the focus of lively debate, yet it is often argued that little concrete has emerged from their recommendations. A major reason for this, the author argues, is that the East-West conflict component is not sufficiently taken into consideration-East-West tensions are a severe constraint on and a determining factor of North-South relations. Using influence diagrams, the author develops a flexible framework for discussion and assessment of N/S-E/W relations.     

Trust and cross-border mergers and acquisitions

A number of studies suggest that social trust matters for investment. Using different measures of trust from World Values Survey, we show that countries where people display higher levels of trust engage in more cross-border M&A activities. When they do, these acquirers pay lower premiums. To the extent that these acquirers also tend to engage in larger acquisitions as well, our findings suggest that a larger selection pool of potential targets and higher value targets enable these acquirers to negotiate for lower premiums. We do not find evidence of the significant effect for target country trust levels. Hence, trust may benefit those acquiring firms in cross-border transactions.     

Tournament-based incentives and mergers and acquisitions

This research examines the relation between tournament-based incentives, which are proxied by the difference between a firm's CEO pay and the median pay of the senior managers, and mergers and acquisitions (M&As). We find that tournament-based incentives are positively related to firm acquisitiveness and acquiring firms' stock and operating performance. Further analysis indicates that positive acquisition performance increases the likelihood of the CEO being promoted from inside the acquiring firm. Our evidence is consistent with the view that tournament-based incentives motivate acquiring firms' managers to make greater efforts and take more risk that result in superior acquisition performance.     

Corporate Innovations and Mergers and Acquisitions

Using a large and unique patent‐merger data set over the period 1984 to 2006, we show that companies with large patent portfolios and low R&D expenses are acquirers, while companies with high R&D expenses and slow growth in patent output are targets. Further, technological overlap between firm pairs has a positive effect on transaction incidence, and this effect is reduced for firm pairs that overlap in product markets. We also show that acquirers with prior technological linkage to their target firms produce more patents afterwards. We conclude that synergies obtained from combining innovation capabilities are important drivers of acquisitions.