东亚经济复苏之路

在１９７５年的时候，６０％的东亚人每天的生活费不足２美元，但到１９９５年，这一数字已下降到了２０％。而由于目前的金融危机，有数千万东亚人又被拖回到贫困状态。尽管东亚奇迹的持续时间将超过东亚危机，但东亚经济的复苏可能要经历一个漫长和痛苦的过程。为什么会...     

浅议东亚经济复苏和全球经济前景

自1997年夏天由于泰国货币贬值而引发的一场金融风暴导致了中国不少的周边国家经济增长放慢，货币贬值，金融动荡，使其中的一些国家陷入困境。据有关方面的统计，这次危机给全球经济造成高达5000亿美元的损失。两年后的今天，这些国家的经济出现了不同程度的复苏，但要恢复到健康发展的道路仍需要时间和艰苦的努力。在这样的经济大环境下，中国经济列车的运行如何呢？中国经济列车运行平稳中国的经济、金融事业两年来发展情况良好，据中国人民银行的披露，今年上半年金融部门发挥了货币政策的作用，采取了一系列货币、信贷政策措施支持经济…     

从经济复苏看未来货币政策调整

目前,世界主要经济体针对金融危机的政策已初见成效,我国政府实施的积极的财政政策和适度宽松的货币政策创造了大量的流动性,带动经济逐步复苏。但我们现在的宏观经济走向还存在较大的不确定性,银行不良资产的问题可能再次严重,通货膨胀的苗头隐约可现。为此,提出政策建议:货币政策可延续以往思路,先行微调;加强银行业监管,避免银行坏账的再次上升;注意货币政策调整的时机。     

亚洲经济后复苏时期面临四大问题

7月1日,是亚洲金融危机爆发3周年的日子,在这个历史时刻,回望亚洲经济更有一番深意。 1997年7月爆发的金融危机,给东亚和东南亚国家带来了巨大损失。经过一段时间的调整和改革,该地区经济已开始走向复苏,但这只     

Connectivity in East Asia

As Asian economies have become more connected through physical and institutional infrastructure, the region's trade has grown and changed. Intraregional trade has increased its share, in large part through the expansion of trade in intermediates in connection with development of global value chains. At the same time, as part of the same process and as part of the structural transformation that underlies most economic development, the share of services in Asia's trade has risen. Policies that support the development of regional infrastructure and the flow of goods and services, as well as factors of production, can increase the benefits from connectivity. Meanwhile, regional cooperation has a key role to play in mitigating negative impacts that may arise from the vulnerabilities that accompany greater connectivity.     

东亚投资合作大有可为

一、东亚正处在大变化、大发展、大繁荣的前夜据国际上权威经济研究机构的统计,从1973年到2003年,全球经济年均增长率为3.5%,而东亚地区年均增长率为8.5%。30年里,东亚的增长高于全球增长5个百分点,这说明东亚国家根据自己的情况,找到了一条符合国情的发展道路,东亚国家经受住了1997年7月2号爆发的亚洲金融危机的考验,就说明了这一点。亚洲金融危机突如其来,国际上估计,东亚大概损失了两万亿美元。当时有人曾经预言,东亚遭受严重打击的国家,10年、15年爬不起来,但是这种灾难性的预言没有实现,经过几年的努力之后,东亚国家又恢复了强劲的增长…     

Business cycles synchronization in East Asia: A Markov-switching approach

This paper attempts to analyze the relationships between the ASEAN-5's business cycles. We examine the nature of business cycle synchronization trying to disentangle between intraregional and interregional synchronization by considering the important role of China, Japan and the US in synchronizing the activity within the ASEAN-5. We employ a time-varying transition probability Markov switching framework in order to allow the degree of synchronization to fluctuate across the phases of the business cycles. We provide evidence that the signals contained in some regional and global leading business cycles can impact the ASEAN-5's business cycles.     

Japan's Security Policy in East Asia

Japan's strategic thinking has been driven by three main factors: a fear of isolation, calculation of the geopolitical strength of China (and to a lesser extent, Korea), and accommodation to the prevailing international power structure. During the Cold War Japan aligned with Washington, but maintained sufficient distance to explore a mutually beneficial relationship with China based on Japan's dominant economic position. As Chinese power has grown and Japan's own economic tools for statecraft have slowed, Tokyo has moved closer to the United States to balance Chinese power. Japan has also had to seek new ways to shape the security environment in Asia, turning to multilateral diplomacy such as the Changmai Initiative. Where Japan's diplomacy in Asia in the 1980s and 1990s emphasized Japan's unique ability to champion "Asian" values with the West, increasingly Tokyo has emphasized its unique ability to champion universal values of democracy and rule of law in Asia. This theme has been used by conservative governments to improve Japan's brand over China, but also builds on a tradition of Japanese diplomatic efforts to take a lead in rule-making in the region. Prime Minister Koizumi's assertive foreign policy helped to reinvigorate Japan's international position, but he moved from the traditional three part formulation of Japan's orientation – the U.S. alliance, the UN system and Asia – to a simpler two part formulation of "the U.S.-Japan alliance and international cooperation." The lack of focus on Asia has contributed to growing tensions with South Korea and China over history issues, even as Japan's global and broader regional standing has increased according to most opinion polls. These regional challenges will continue to confront future Prime Ministers well past Koizumi.     

Academic Economic Opinion in East Asia

Surveys of economists' opinions have been reported from around the world over the past two decades, but never (as far as we are aware) from a non-Western country. This article presents the results of our survey of academic economists drawn from ten East Asian nations. Respondents gave their views on a number of economic propositions ranging across issues of deregulation, government business enterprises, micro-economic and labour market reform, income distribution, and attitudes to the market. Finally, the article reports the results of multidimensional scaling techniques which were used to compare the attitudes of East Asian academic economists toward the market with those of their international colleagues. Overall, we found that while our colleagues in Asia make some allowances for circumstances unique to fast-growing developing economies, their predilection toward market solutions to economic problems reflects that of their (predominantly) Western training. Economists in the ‘Tiger’ nations (Hong Kong, Singapore, Taiwan and South Korea) more closely reflect the views of colleagues in the market-friendly West (especially North America, Australia and Germany) than do economists in the newly emerging (‘non-Tiger’) nations such as Malaysia, Thailand, Indonesia and the Philippines.     

建立东亚自由贸易区前途坎坷

20世纪80年代末，随着冷战的结束，东亚地区国家间的政治、经济和对外关系出现了重大调整，经济贸易合作加强，利益相互依赖加深。世界经济全球化趋势加速发展，地区经济集团组织不断涌现，特别是北美自由贸易区、美洲自由贸易区、欧洲联盟的建立，更加激发了东亚国家建立某种形式的经济贸易合作组织的热情。从20世纪90年代开始，东亚国家接连提出各种建立地区经济合作组织的建议。东亚各国政府首脑一个接一个地提出地区经济合作的建议，宣告了创建东亚地区经济合作组织的时代已经来临。当今国际经济合作和地区经济一体化理论认为，国家和地…     

Real and Financial Integration in East Asia

This paper examines the real and financial integration of East Asian economies, by comparing the degree of real vs financial and global vs regional integration, before vs after the Asian crisis. First, price and quantity measures such as the size of intra‐ and inter‐regional trade, cross‐border financial assets, stock return correlation, and interest rate differentials are investigated. Second, the structural panel vector autoregression (VAR) model is constructed to analyze macroeconomic consequences of real and financial integration such as cross‐country output and consumption relation. The results suggest that (i) the degree of real integration significantly increased after the crisis, both regionally and globally; (iii) quantity and price measures showed an increased financial integration after the crisis, but the consumption relation did not; (iv) the degree of regional financial integration is smaller than that of global financial integration, based on the consumption relation; and (v) financial integration lags real integration, especially for regional integration.     

Economic growth and unemployment in East Asia

Barro and Sala-i-Martin （2004） analyzed the empirical determinants of growth. The data used in this paper consists of panel data of several macroeconomic variables observed for 55 years 0950-2004） in six East Asian countries and regions. Following the implications of semi-endogenous growth theory, the author regressed output growth on the determinants of steady-state income. The estimation and test results suggest the existence of significant relationship between steady-state income and （trend weighted） R ＆ D input both in Japan and South Korea. In addition, following Cellini （1995）, the author also considers cointegration and error-correction methods as the growth regression of East Asian countries. Meanwhile, Chang, et al （2004） derived the conclusion that the decreases in reallocation shocks are main factor in a downward trend in natural rate of unemployment for South Korea. The author extends this analysis using structural VAR to other Asian countries and regions, Japan and Taiwan region. Impulse responses show that the growth of production in Korea and Taiwan reduce unemployment, but, in Japan, this raises unemployment.     

从东亚区域经济合作看日本的战略问题

近年来的日本经济可谓"失去的十年",对此有种种论述和探讨,笔者认为日本的问题源于中长期战略的滞后和欠缺。面对全球经济的区域化和现实经济的相互依存性,东亚区域经济合作存在着必然的因素,同时也为日本经济的改革、发展提供了极好的平台和可能。