国际油价波动对中国经济影响的评估

文章运用一般均衡分析方法,通过修正传统CGE模型关于完全竞争与固定规模报酬的不合理假设（此即我国能源市场中两个甚为重要却常被忽略的特性）,评估国际油价上涨对我国总体经济与产业的影响。研究表明,国际油价波动对我国经济冲击幅度的评估受到生产技术与订价行为设定方式的影响。只考虑非完全竞争而忽略规模经济时,冲击幅度与传统CGE相差不大,均明显低于同时考虑规模经济与非完全竞争市场结构时的冲击幅度。与国外文献在油价上涨初期所做的预测相比,本文结果较为缓和,显示由需求拉动的油价上涨,对我国实际GDP的冲击并不如预期中的严重。     

贸易结构、中间需求与生产性服务业发展

本文引入中间需求因素,对柯布-道格拉斯生产函数进行了扩展,分析了加工贸易和一般贸易影响生产性服务业的作用机制,然后利用协整关系、向量误差修正模型等方法进行了实证研究,得出结论:加工贸易和一般贸易与我国生产性服务业之间存在长期均衡关系,加工贸易不利于生产性服务业的发展,一般贸易有利于生产性服务业的发展。但短期内加工贸易能促进生产性服务业的发展,一般贸易的促进作用具有滞后性,短期内效应不明显。     

THE ROLE OF THE EXCHANGE RATE IN A NEW KEYNESIAN DSGE MODEL FOR THE SOUTH AFRICAN ECONOMY

We build a small open economy New Keynesian dynamic stochastic general equilibrium model for South Africa similar to Steinbach et al. We abandon their assumption of complete risk sharing with the foreign economy, and introduce country risk shocks to allow deviations from uncovered interest rate parity. These changes allow us to include the exchange rate as an observable variable in the estimation of the model. Using forecast error variance decompositions and historical decompositions, we show that country risk shocks have sizable effects on the South African business cycle. We also explore the optimal monetary policy implications of our model within the context of Taylor rules.     

技术革新、产业层级分工与工资差异

本文在一般均衡的框架中,运用匹配与分类的思想,综合考虑了技术变革所引起的沟通成本的降低和技术进步对劳动力技能产生的“技能贬值”效应,将技术进步、产业组织结构变化与工资差距三者相结合建立模型。该模型能够将产业组织架构内生化,对不同能力的员工进行生产职能分配,并能给出技术变革与工资水平差距的内在联系;同时,本文利用珠三角的经济发展事实对以上模型结论提供了经验证据。     

Land tax and economic growth under credit market imperfection

We study the general equilibrium effects of land taxation on economic growth by extending the model developed by Kiyotaki and Moore (1997) to an endogenous growth model, where land is used not only as an input of production but also as collateral. Land taxation tends to hamper economic growth through the credit-contraction effect, but the overall direction on economic growth depends on the redistribution scheme of the tax revenue. Surprisingly, we show that if the tax revenue is fully refunded to entrepreneurs, the economy grows faster than a no-taxation economy. We calibrate our model and show that if taxation on land is raised by 1 percent, the land price initially falls by approximately 9.09 percent, while the economy grows faster by 0.6%.     

Sources of Growth and Structural Change in the Vietnamese Economy, 1996–2003: A Computable General Equilibrium Analysis*

We use the MONASH‐VN model, a dynamic computable general equilibrium model of the Vietnamese economy, to investigate Vietnam's rapid growth and structural change over the period 1996 to 2003. We do this in two steps. First, we estimate changes in variables representing production technologies, consumer preferences, government policy and other structural features of the economy. Movements in these structural and policy variables are then used to explain the recent history of Vietnam's rapid growth and structural change. We find the most important sources of growth and change to be technical improvements, favorable shifts in foreign demand for Vietnamese goods and employment growth. Other important factors include movement in household preferences away from primary products and towards manufactures and services, expansion in agricultural land supply, and tax reform.     

Capital Account Liberalisation by China and the Effects on Global FDI and Trade

We model the partial liberalisation of the capital account by China using a dynamic computable general equilibrium model of the world economy. Our results indicate that a reduced capital controls on foreign direct investment (FDI) would lead to a significant increase in FDI capital in China and a significant reduction in the cost of capital in China relative to the rest of the world. Furthermore, we observe an increase in capital stocks in most regions, which benefits most regions in terms of GDP and GNP. The Chinese economy grows by 3.3% driven by a significant fall in the rental price of capital that, in turn, lowers domestic costs, causes a real depreciation of the exchange rate and thus increased exports relative to other regions. We also observe an across-the-board increase in the saving rate driven by the rise in the price of consumption relative to investment (saving) in all regions.     

Impact of immigration on the Japanese economy: A multi-country simulation model

To quantify the impacts of immigration and fiscal reconstruction on the Japanese economy, we present a dynamic computable general equilibrium OLG model with an overlapping generations structure. We use a total of 16 countries and regions, both including those that are industrialized, such as Japan, the US, and the EU, and developing countries, such as China, Brazil, the Philippines, and Peru.Our simulation results show that a permanent immigration flows of 150,000 will improve the Japanese economy and the welfare of current and future generations. On the other hand, a standalone increase in the consumption tax will not improve long-run welfare. The results indicate that substantially increased inflows of working-age immigrants would alleviate the need for future fiscal reform and also help to dramatically reduce the public pension burden on the working generations.     

The poverty trap: The dual externality model and its policy implications

This paper analyzes poverty traps in a monopolistic competition general equilibrium model with aggregate demand externality. In our model, the central hypothesis is represented by the introduction of externalities in fixed costs that firms have to incur in order to industrialize as a spillover across sectors. By this we mean that the fixed cost incurred by a firm in order to start production can reduce the fixed cost that firms in other sectors of the economy must incur. With such an assumption, we can show the possibility for an economy to be locked in at different stages of development. We then proceed to discuss the policy implications and the possible role for government intervention. To this end we provide a potential framework of reference that, if properly developed, may be useful in policy design.     

Factor reallocation and structural transformation implications of grain subsidies in China

Since agriculture has contributed significantly to China’s economic growth miracle, it is important to understand the contributions and determinants of agriculture related to different agricultural policies in structural transformation in China. However, as one of the most important agricultural policies in China, the effects of the grain subsidy policy on factor reallocation, economic growth, as well as agricultural and non-agricultural production have not been investigated systematically and comprehensively. The absence of using an economy-wide model to estimate the impacts of the grain subsidy policy in China leaves a vacuum in the policy-advising space. This research develops a dynamic single-country, multi-regional computable general equilibrium model of the Chinese economy to evaluate the historical impacts of the grain subsidy policy. Our results reveal that grain subsidies impede the efficiency of factor reallocation and economic structural transformation in China. However, grain subsidies promote grain production growth and temporarily reduce rural-urban income disparity. In order to achieve the long-term sustainable increase in rural income and to mitigate the rural-urban income gap, China needs to further develop its labor-intensive industries (e.g., services) to accommodate the large number of rural labor transfers. Moreover, the large-scale agricultural production and technology improvement in agriculture are the effective measures to ensure food security in China.     

构建循环经济生态工业园的思路和对策

生态工业园是依据循环经济理论和工业生态学原理而设计的一种工业组织形态,是发展循环经济的一个重要层面,是建设生态文明的一种重要模式。在园区内通过构建可以循环的产业链、合理运行的模式链、先进适用的技术链,使资源在整个生产过程中进行闭路循环,有利于实施节能减排,实现经济效益、社会效益和生态效益有机统一的目标。     

Vertical differentiation with non-uniform consumers' distribution

This note explores a vertical differentiation model with a continuous non-uniform consumers' distribution. First, a result concerning the finiteness property obtained with uniform consumers' distribution is generalized. Second, we prove an existence result of price equilibrium when the distribution is concave. Finally, we exhibit a counter-example to the existence of price equilibrium to show that the concavity assumption is not superfluous.     

Welfare gains from taxation in an open economy: Applied general equilibrium results

This paper uses a general equilibrium trade model with an endogenous labour supply to analyze the effects of changes in domestic taxes. When an open economy has some sectors with scale economies, domestic tax increases may increase social welfare by causing productivity gains which more than compensate for the deadweight welfare loss of taxation.     

Minimum wage,trade and unemployment in general equilibrium

The path‐breaking work of Card and Krueger, showing that a higher minimum wage can increase employment, turned the age‐old conventional wisdom on its head. This paper demonstrates that this apparently paradoxical result is perfectly plausible in a competitive general equilibrium production structure of a small open economy with a non‐traded good, without recourse to monopsony, spatial heterogeneity, heterogeneity of consumers and so on, the usual theoretical drivers behind the result. Following Jones and Marjit, we build a simple general equilibrium model with production complementarity and we show that a higher minimum wage can raise aggregate employment. Expansion in the non‐traded sector following a wage hike may be consistent with the overall expansion of the export sector in a multi‐good framework, an unlikely outcome in a conventional two‐good model which cannot accommodate with production complementarity.     

分利抑制与经济增长

本文建立了一个资源在生产性行为和非生产性行为①之间分配的一般均衡模型,分析了在政府作为仲裁者的情况下,模型均衡的决定因素.分析的重点是当经济体处于无分利行为的均衡时,政府所能起到的作用.本文得到的结论是两个个体按利益最大化原则进行资源分配,并不能完全杜绝分利行为,即达不到无分利行为的均衡.只有在政府以仲裁者的身份参与博弈时,才有可能达到无分利行为的均衡状态.因此,在经济发展过程中,自由放任并不是政府的最佳选择,政府应该扮演重要的角色.本文最重要的贡献在于,给出了政府干预经济的一个准则.     

Quantifying shifts in primary factor demand in the South African economy

This article uses a dynamic computable general equilibrium model to explain the persistence in the high levels of unemployment in the South African economy in spite of modest to relatively strong output growth. We make use of a historical simulation for the period 2006–13 and find that the capital–labour ratio increased despite a relative increase in the rental price of capital. Classical economic theory suggests that changes in industry preferences toward capital and labour lead to adjusted capital–labour ratios. We quantify the changes in industry factor preferences during this period and highlight their impact in explaining observed labour market outcomes. Other changes in the economy over this period are also quantified.     

Money and production, and liquidity trap

We prove the existence of monetary equilibrium in a finite horizon economy with production. We also show that if agents expect the monetary authority to significantly decrease the supply of bank money available for short-term loans in the future, then the economy will fall into a liquidity trap today.     

基于演化博弈的众包组织模式形成机理研究

众包是近年来兴起的一种以互联网技术为依托的新兴网络组织模式,这种组织模式正被越来越多的企业所采用,并逐渐引起学术界的兴趣与关注。在对相关研究成果梳理的基础上,采用演化博弈技术方法构建了基于合作的演化博弈均衡模型,以刻画博弈各方决策行为动态演变的过程。研究结果表明,众包中合作关系演化方向不仅与双方博弈的支付矩阵、系统初始状态密切相关,而且还受监督成本、处罚力度以及社会责任的深刻影响。     

人民币汇率升值与资产价格泡沫的传导机制和实证研究

文章旨在研究具有资本流动和较低金融市场组织程度的开放经济体中,如果产生某些外部冲击而使得汇率升值,便会产生资产价格泡沫。在传导机制的理论模型推导中,以凯恩斯宏观经济模型为基础,通过模型推导得出实际汇率升值使得均衡收益率上升,股票资产需求迅速增加,进而导致股票价格的快速上涨,形成泡沫。然后通过对人民币汇率升值和上证A股股指变化进行实证研究,并考虑金融危机的影响因素,结果支持了文章的理论分析。