热钱对我国经济的影响及其应对措施

本文从热钱的定义出发,阐述了热钱进入我国后的流向。从分析我国宏观基本面的判断、人民币升值预期和利率顺差.人民币计价资产的价格上涨等方面阐述了热钱流入我国的原因。热钱流入将产生资产价格泡沫.影响货币政策独立性,加剧资产价格的波动,增加宏观调控的难度。对此本文提出了一些解决措施,诸如建立健全完善的资本市场和金融市场.加强对热钱的监管、采取总量对冲策略等等。     

论国际热钱对我国房地产和股票价格的影响与对策

随着我国经济全球化程度的逐步提高,国际热钱已经开始大规模涌入我国,主要在房地产和股票等高利润增长行业从事投机套利活动,使我国房地产市场、股票市场出现非理性发展.本文首先深入分析了热钱的特征、流入原因及其对我国经济的影响,然后运用VAR模型研究了热钱流入规模与我国房地产价格、股票价格之间的关系,并得出结论:境外热钱的流入在很大程度上推高了我国房地产价格指数,引发股票价格异常波动.最后,在实证结果的基础上提出了防止国际热钱在我国快速流入流出的对策建议.     

索罗斯再来，危机会重演吗？

在资产管理领域，欧美资本东渐的长期趋势已然形成。索罗斯基金等海外资金与机构纷纷人驻香港，引起了人们对热钱流人的担心。不过，在众多对海外对冲基金行为模式有深刻理解的对冲基金经理看来，海外对冲基金要做空中国，无须在香港设立分支机构；而且，目前涌人香港的海外资金中，不少属于长期投资者，对它们和热钱要区别对待。同时，由于亚洲区资产负债表大为改善、对冲基金的策略变化以及种种技术障碍，13年前的“索氏狙击”难以再度上演。     

热钱走了,没什么了不起

如果新兴市场债台高筑,内部经济过热,资产泡沫加剧,热钱撤离是不可承受之重。但在历经数次金融风暴之后,新兴市场已经学乖,他们集聚大量外汇储备以应对不时之需,同时严控外债规模,抑制资产品价格泡沫。数千亿美元的流出不会撼动新兴市场经济体的根基。     

大数据时代对冲基金的发展现状和监管策略建议

在以互联网为中心,各地金融市场紧密融通的背景下,伴随着资管新规的出现,我国金融市场步入新的发展阶段,投资者对优质资产需求激增进一步扩大了对冲基金的市场规模.但由于发展速度与监管完善程度的不匹配,也使得对冲基金市场乱象丛生.因此,从对冲基金的定义、特点、发展现状出发,同时对比美国对冲基金市场,借鉴美国对冲基金市场的监管措施,对我国对冲基金市场的发展和监管提出相关对策建议.     

国际投机资本对房地产市场影响的实证分析

自2005年7月汇改以来人民币的升值预期吸引了大量热钱流入中国,而同期中国房地产价格也在大幅上涨。通过建立房地产供给需求联立方程,分析国际短期资金如何通过影响房地产供求平衡拉动房价上升。房地产投资过热在相当程度上受到国际投机资本的影响,国际短期资本推高了中国房地产价格,影响了房地产市场的健康发展。因此,在当前压缩房地产泡沫的形势下,要限制热钱流入中国,压缩热钱套利空间,建立严格的外资房地产准入机制。     

“热钱”流入的影响及政策建议

2002年以来,随着金融市场对人民币升值的预期增加,国内资产价格上涨等,大规模的"热钱"涌入我国。2007年以来全球金融危机的爆发,正深度改变着全球资金的配置方向和规模。它借助一些渠道大量流入我国境内,抬高了相关资产的价格。推高股指、拉高房价使证券市场、房地产市场风险加大。如果这些"热钱"发生逆转将会对我国经济造成严重的影响,研究热钱的规模以及对我国实体经济和虚拟经济的影响,认为应该通过控制热钱流动规模,对热钱进行疏堵结合的方法控制引导并利用。理论分析方面,主要介绍了热钱的来源、特征、进出我国的原因、渠道、流向以及国际热钱对我国股票市场及房地产市场的影响,并提出相关结论及建议,一旦热钱流出,预警指标发生变化,要及时防控流动性风险。     

信贷扩张、资产价格泡沫与政策挑战

基于信贷扩张的资产价格泡沫模型,本文揭示了信贷扩张与资产价格泡沫之间的相互关系以及信贷扩张作用于资产价格的机理,其政策含义是货币政策必须与审慎监管政策协调配合,货币政策应该关注资产价格,审慎监管政策应该关注银行等金融机构信贷扩张的规模、速度以及信贷质量.     

“热线”搅局

在人民币升值步伐加快以及中美利差倒挂等因素影响下,国际热钱大规模流入中国已是不可避免的事实。7月2日,当三部委围堵热钱的《出口收结汇联网核查办法》颁布的时候,我国4月的外汇储备单月增幅已达到创纪录的745亿美元。假如接下来的外汇增长速度依然保持在前4个月的增速上,那么年底中国的外汇储备金额将突破2万亿美元。各种热钱以非法或合法的身份出现在市场上,不仅会加剧通货膨胀、恶化流动性过剩,还将引发资产价格泡沫;同时,热钱的天性又决定了它们一定会在泡沫达到顶点前集体撤退,届时将会造成经济震荡,甚至引发严重的货币危机。     

对冲基金利弊研究

尽管中国特色的对冲基金的发展一日千里,但对于普通人来说,对冲基金仍然是陌生的.这里讨论对冲基金的正面影响,如价格发现功能,增加市场流动性、多样化的收益产品等;以及负面的影响,如宏观经济的稳定性,影响财政收入等.希望本文能让一般的投资者对对冲基金有基本的认识.     

Does International Order Flow Contribute to Price Discovery in Futures Markets?

This study examines whether order flow originating from overseas contributes to price discovery in domestic futures markets. This issue is examined using a unique dataset for stock index futures traded on the Australian Securities Exchange that identifies the geographic location of computer servers on which orders are placed. We find that (i) transactions originating from overseas servers have a significant impact on the price volatility of stock index futures; (ii) trades initiated from international servers also have a permanent impact on price; and (iii) price movements caused by trades initiated from overseas servers lead those on domestic servers and make a greater contribution to price discovery. Our results confirm that international order flow is important in the price discovery process in domestic markets.     

资产价格、通货膨胀与货币政策的动态分析:理论与中国实践

传统的CPI和GDP平减指数仅仅涵盖了普通商品和服务,股票和房地产等资产价格上涨的因素并不包括在内。随着现代金融的不断深化,通货膨胀与资产价格的内在关系越来越被人们所关注。虽然刚刚经历了2008年的金融危机,2009年房地产价格仍然不断快速上涨,有关泡沫的言论不断升温。探寻资产价格变化与通货膨胀预期的内在关系,完善货币政策对于资产价格的反应机制,对于维护经济金融的平稳发展意义重大。     

Market integration and contagion: Evidence from Asian emerging stock and foreign exchange markets

This paper examines whether Asian emerging stock markets (India, Korea, Malaysia, Philippines, Taiwan, and Thailand) have become integrated into world capital markets since their official liberalization dates by estimating and testing a dynamic integrated international capital asset pricing model (ICAPM) in the absence of purchasing power parity (PPP) using an asymmetric multivariate GARCH(1,1)-in-Mean approach. Also examined in this paper is whether there are pure contagion effects between stock and foreign exchange markets for each Asian country during the 1997 Asian crisis. The empirical results show that first, both currency and world market risks are priced and time-varying, suggesting that an international asset pricing model under PPP and constant price of risk might give rise to model misspecification. Second, the stock markets for India, Korea, Malaysia, Philippines, and Thailand were segmented from the world capital markets before their liberalization dates, but all six markets have become fully integrated since then. Third, the market liberalization has reduced the cost of capital and price volatility for most of the countries. Finally, as for the contagion effects, strong positive impact of return shocks originating from the domestic stock market to its foreign exchange market during the crisis is found. This dynamic relationship between stock market and foreign exchange market is consistent with stock-oriented exchange rate models.     

International Comparisons of Supply Chain Management in Grocery Retailing

This paper discusses a neglected area of international retailing research, namely an international comparison of supply chain management practices. The focus of this research is on the grocery industry sector and the comparative analysis is between US retailers and their counterparts in parts of Europe. The research shows that the logistical environment differs markedly between and even within countries. The amount of stock held in the grocery supply chain varies from over 100 days in the US to 29 days in the UK. The main reasons for these differences can be attributed to the intensity of price competition, conflict rather than collaboration between suppliers and retailers, commodity purchasing and holding of promotional stock and the varying rates of adoption of information technology, especially EDI usage. No two countries are the same, however; and range of factors such as geography and distribution ‘culture’ will require the international rnarketeer to assess all these factors in developing a logistics strategy for different country markets.     

我国股票资产价格与通货膨胀关系的研究

货币政策是否应该干预股票资产价格的波动,这是一个广受关注且富有争议的问题.这一问题的关键因素在于正确判断通货膨胀与股票资产价格的关联性.目前,股票收益率与通货膨胀之间存在四种相关关系,即正相关、负相关、不确定以及不相关.我国的资本市场成立较晚,研究股票收益率与通胀率之间关系的成果非常少.所以从我国沪深两市股指与通货膨胀走势、沪深两市股指波动区间、波动频率与通货膨胀间的关系,以及我国沪深两市股票市盈率与通货膨胀关系描述等三方面来揭示股票资产定价与通货膨胀间的关系,为全面认识我国证券市场与通胀间的关系提供实事依据.     

国际粮价对国内粮价传递效应研究——以大米、小麦和玉米为例

根据2002年1月至2010年12月的月度数据,运用协整分析、误差修正模型以及脉冲响应函数等方法分析了入世以来国际粮食价格对国内粮食价格波动的影响。结果表明:长期而言,国内粮食市场与国际市场的市场整合度不高,价格传递不完全;短期内,国际粮价对国内粮价的影响也较小;国际价格对国内价格变动的贡献在不断加大,但仍处于较低的水平,主要原因来自于进口需求的低水平、政府的边境控制和国内支持政策。     

International investors’ reactions to cross-border acquisitions by emerging market multinationals

How do international investors react to announcements of cross-border mergers and acquisitions (CM&As) by emerging market multinational enterprises (EMNEs)? Using a unique and manually-constructed firm-level dataset, this paper examines the stock price reactions to CM&A announcements made over the period 1991–2010 by Chinese MNEs listed on the Hong Kong Stock Exchange and the wealth impacts of their corporate governance. Our empirical findings confirm a positive stock price reaction on average, and suggest that international investors react positively to the presence of large shareholders, but negatively to the presence of institutional shareholders. There is a negative impact if the largest shareholder is either the State or the corporate founder. We suggest that this is because the international investors perceive potential principal–principal conflicts in such ownership/control constellations and discount equity prices accordingly. We also find that Board size and independence have positive effects on the price reaction, but that large supervisory boards engender negative reactions.     

International currency exposures,valuation effects and the global financial crisis

We examine the evolution of international currency exposures, with a particular focus on the 2002–12 period. During the run up to the global financial crisis, there was a widespread shift towards positive net foreign currency positions, such that relatively few countries exhibited the archetypal emerging-market “short foreign currency” position on the eve of the global financial crisis. During the crisis, the upheaval in currency markets generated substantial currency-generated valuation effects — much of which were not reversed. There is some evidence that the distribution of valuation effects was stabilizing in the sense of showing a negative covariation pattern with pre-crisis net foreign asset positions.     

国际大米市场价格波动对国内市场的传递效应——基于误差修正模型的估计

基于2006年2月—2011年3月的月度数据,对国际大米价格波动与中国国内大米价格波动的长期均衡关系进行检验,分析国内大米价格波动的主要影响因素及其程度,考察国内外大米市场价格波动的时滞效应与调整效应,并从外贸途径和期货途径测度国外大米价格波动对国内大米价格波动的传导效应,基本结论是:国际大米价格波动与国内大米价格波动存在长期稳定的均衡关系,长期内国内大米价格波动主要由通货膨胀带动,且价格传递具有明显的时滞效应和调节效应。脉冲响应函数和方差分解方法实证结果表明,国际大米价格通过外贸渠道和期货渠道对国内大米价格产生影响,其中期货途径对国内大米价格波动的传导效应更显著。     

流动性视角下的非流通股定价策略分析

金融市场上的流动性对金融资产定价有重要作用。在Longstaff模型的基础上对“卖掉持有股票的权利”进行定价,可得出股票的流动性价格,进而得到非流通股的价格。通过分析可知非流通股的价格是禁售期的减函数,是流通股的增函数;股票的价格波动率越大,贷款利率与无风险利率的差越大,非流通股的价格是就越低;反之,非流通股的价格就越高。以我国股票市场的相关指数进行验证,上述结论依然成立。