USING AUCTIONS TO ALLOCATE AND PRICE LONG-TERM CREDIT

Most long-term credit in developing countries is allocated throughnegotiated agreements between government institutions and financialintermediaries or final borrowers, and often at administeredrates. Yet many developing countries have no long-term creditmarket whose interest rates can be used as benchmarks for theseloans. If credit is priced improperly, it will be allocatedinefficiently and the development of capital markets may bestunted. In light of the generally disappointing experiencewith conventional methods of allocating development credit,some countries have introduced credit auctions as an alternative.Among the advantages are greater transparency and fairness,lower transaction costs, and increased competition and efficiency.Among the disadvantages are a greater vulnerability to collusion,which can lead to lower interest rates and revenue, and a tendencyto attract the least desirable participants (adverse selection)and to lend for riskier projects (moral hazard), which can leadto lower repayment rates and a higher probability of default.All these factors can lead to inefficiency in the allocationof funds. This article suggests ways to lessen these negativeeffects and presents various elements of auction design thataffect the efficiency of credit auctions and their suitabilityto specific circumstances. When properly designed, auctionscan be used in a variety of environments to allocate developmentcredit more efficiently than current methods do.      

INTRADAY CHANGES IN TARGET FIRMS' SHARE PRICE AND BID-ASK QUOTES AROUND TAKEOVER ANNOUNCEMENTS

This paper documents changes in share prices, bid-ask spreads, and quote sizes for target firms during the day a takeover proposal is announced. The mean 21.2 percent announcement-day return consists primarily of a 19.5 percent return at the announcement. There is little evidence that spreads increase before the announcement, except when trading is suspended because of an order imbalance. Quote sizes show some sign of decreasing just before the announcement. The quoted bid-ask spread and size increase immediately after the announcement, but spreads quickly return to normal.     

A FURTHER EXAMINATION OF STOCK PRICE CHANGES AND TRANSACTION VOLUME

This study provides a further test of whether the price change-volume relationship is asymmetric as Epps' theoretical model and empirical evidence indicate. Testing during periods of known information arrival supports his hypothesis that the ratio of volume to absolute price change on price increases is higher than that ratio on equivalent price decreases. There is some contrary evidence when the testing occurs over trading days for which there is no known information arrival. This reversal of results could be due to the combined effect of positive transaction costs and no information arrival. There is evidence in support of this explanation.     

EARNINGS ANNOUNCEMENTS,QUALITY AND QUANTITY OF INFORMATION,AND STOCK PRICE CHANGES

We analyze the informational effect of earnings announcements on stock price changes. Although prior studies postulate that the direction and magnitude of earnings surprises contribute to abnormal stock price changes, we attribute earnings surprises and subsequent stock price changes to the quality and quantity of available information. If a stock is followed by many financial analysts, the amount of information available to investors contributes to higher quality information, which in turn is reflected by a small earnings surprise. Furthermore, we demonstrate that as the quality and quantity of information increase, stock prices adjust more quickly, which sheds additional light on the post-earnings-announcement drift issue. Finally, cross-sectional analysis reveals that the flow of information, as measured by the rate of trading volume changes, and the stock of information, as measured by the number of financial analysts, contributes significantly to the variations in excess returns and return volatility. Traditional variables, such as earnings surprises, earnings reporting lag, and firm size, do not perform well.     

EX-DIVIDEND DAY PRICE CHANGES AND IMPLIED TAX RATES: AN EVALUATION

The ratio of price changes to dividends is sometimes used to assess personal tax rates and detect tax clientele for dividends. It is suggested here that the model is unable to detect possible tax effects, given the sample sizes available to most researchers.     

CHANGES IN THE STOCK PRICE REACTION OF SMALL FIRMS TO COMMON INFORMATION

We hypothesize that changes in the technological and regulatory environment result in a more rapid response to marketwide information by small firms. We find that the correlations between small-firm returns and lagged large-firm returns decline over time, which suggests an increase in the efficiency of capital markets. Similar lead-lag patterns are found in the returns of portfolios sorted by dollar trading volume. The price response of low-volume stocks improves over time in much the same way as that of small-capitalization stocks.     

LIQUIDITY AND PRICE VARIABILITY IN FUTURES MARKETS

This paper tests the hypothesis that market liquidity affects the price variability of futures contracts. The analyses used take into account the maturity effect and various sources of nonstationarity. Empirical testing involved eleven commodities in various markets. The evidence strongly suggests that futures contracts in distant and thinly traded months exhibit different price variability than contracts in near to maturity and liquid traded months, and that the behavior is commodity dependent. These findings could help investors better evaluate risks and provide a better basis for hedging strategies. Also, monthly averages of open interest can be used interchangeably with volume to measure liquidity in determining which pattern applies to a given commodity.     

INTRINSIC UNCERTAINTY AND COMMON-KNOWLEDGE PRIORS IN FINANCIAL ECONOMICS

This article introduces the concept of intrinsic uncertainty, which occurs in the absence of common knowledge, and its relation to the standard homogeneous beliefs assumption of finance theory. When individuals in an informed environment have homogeneous beliefs (common priors), they objectively agree; however, they can agree without knowing they agree. With homogeneous beliefs, individuals still face intrinsic uncertainty over unknown beliefs of others. If two people have homogeneous beliefs and their informed posteriors for an event E are common knowledge, then—contrary to the widely held view—these posteriors may be unequal. The two people can agree to disagree. Consensus over the probabilities of the possible states requires an agreed common-knowledge priors assumption.     

OWNERSHIP AND CONTROL IN SOUTH AFRICA UNDER BLACK RULE

An article published in this journal three years ago defended the South African corporate ownership system with its five largest groups then exercising effective control over companies representing nearly 80% of the value of the Johannesburg Stock Exchange–as an efficient outcome of a largely voluntary market process in which owner-managers compete for capital supplied mainly by South African institutional investors. This article extends the earlier analysis by noting that, since the beginning of black majority rule in 1994, the South African group system has adapted by finding ways for black entrepreneurs to participate in the control and ownership of major South African businesses. And such experiments in black empowerment have produced a number of notable successes. At the same time, the idea of investing in shares has now become widely accepted in black communities that once viewed the Stock Exchange as a bastion of exclusive white interests.
The larger import of such changes is their apparent success in legitimizing the established financial structure for the new South Africa, thereby protecting a fundamentally market-based system from potentially damaging intervention by the State. But if that system is to prosper over the longer run, economic efficiency must remain the primary goal; and, as share ownership spreads among the black community, it must become a more important source of black wealth than the successes of a small group of black entrepreneurs controlling large stakes on the JSE.