推进经济增长方式根本性转变——国家发展和改革委员会主任马凯谈经济发展的几个根本性问题

经济增长方式问题,关系到一个国家和民族的根本命运。在经历了“高投入、高消耗、高排放、不协调、难循环、低效率”的粗放型经济增长方式之后,我国经济增长方式适应世界经济发展的变化,进行相应的转变,如何选择适合我国国情的经济增长方式,是摆在我们面前的一个根本性的问题。在日前举行的“中国发展高层论坛2004”上,国家发展和改革委员会主任马凯就中国经济增长方式问题发表了讲话,其内容反映了我国经济增长方式为什么要转变,如何转变等一系列内容,值得一读。     

国务院关于做好建设节约型社会近期重点工作的通知

改革开放以来，特别是中央提出加快两个根本性转变以来，我国推进经济增长方式转变取得了积极进展，资源节约与综合利用取得一定成效。但总体上看，粗放型的经济增长方式尚未得到根本转变，与国际先进水平相比，仍存在资源消耗高、浪费大、环境污染严重等问题，     

对我国经济增长方式转变的比较研究

改革开放以来,我国经济发展取得了很大的成就。但粗放型经济增长方式在推动经济增长的同时也带来了许多问题,如资源过度耗费,环境严重破坏等等,经济增长方式转变迫在眉睫。本文通过我国经济增长方式与发达国家的差异比较,并试图提出转变我国经济增长方式的若干思路,以供参考。     

制度创新与国有企业经济增长方式转变

在我国近年来的经济改革与发展中，速度与效益、发展与资源的矛盾日益突出。提高经济效益、转变经济增长方式，已成为一个迫切需要解决的问题。早在80年代的改革初期，中央就提出了经济工作要以经济效益为中心，这实际上就提出了经济增长方式转变的问题。在以后的多年间，中央又反复强调了这个问题。应该说，在这方面已经取得了一些成就，但总的来看，我国经济增长方式的特点仍然是高投入、高消耗、低质量、低产出、低效益，追求数量和速度。不难理解，在以计划经济为主的经济体制框架内，所谓经济增长方式的转变，只能是细枝末叶上的一些变…     

技术创新与经济增长方式转变

近年来,随着我国经济改革不断深化,针对经济增长方式的改革取得了成效.目前,我国致力于将传统的资源能耗型与人力密集型经济发展方式转变为集约型、可持续型经济发展方式.而技术创新能有效促进经济增长方式的转变.因而笔者选取技术创新为视角,通过分析我国经济增长理念,总结出技术创新促进经济增长方式转变的具体途径,以期为我国经济增长方式的转变做出理论上的贡献.     

贵州工业结构优化的思路及对策建议

近年来,贵州省的经济增长取得了举世瞩目的成就,经济增长方式转变也取得了很大成效。产业结构逐步升级,技术进步对经济增长的贡献率不断提高,不少行业、企业和产品的能耗、物耗水平下降。但是,也应该清醒地认识到,贵州省在经济增长方式上还存在着"高投入、高消耗、高排放、不协调、难循环、低效率"的问题,这使得贵州为经济增长已经付出了沉重的代价,对今后的经济发展和社会进步构成不小的威胁。当前加快推进粗放型经济增长方式的转变,已成为新时期我国经济发展所面临的最严峻的挑战和最紧迫的任务,是一个关系经济社会发展全局的战略课题。     

企业技术进步与经济增长方式的转变

<正> 一、作为经济增长方式转变重要内容的企业技术进步是我国当前经济发展和经济改革的迫切要求。在"九五"之初重新提出经济增长方式要实现根本性转变这一问题很有必要。这是因为,虽然在80年代初就提出了经济增长方式转变问题,并取得了某些进展,但并没真正实现根本性的转变,以致以下矛盾显得     

积极推进经济增长方式的转变

党的十四届五中全会《建议》提出,积极推进经济增长方式的转变,把提高经济效益作为经济工作的中心,是我们在今后15年经济和社会发展中必须贯彻的一条重要方针。 所谓经济增长方式的转变,是指从粗放型经济向集约型经济的转变。现在提出转变经济增长方式问题,是我国经济发展到今天的必然要求。新中国成立后,经过40多年的建设,我国已形成比较完整的工业体系和国民经济体系,经济规模已相当可观。但是由于我们的经济高速增长主要靠高投入支撑,仍然采取以铺摊子、上项目等为主的外延式发展。因此,资源消耗高、资金周转慢、损失浪费多、经济效益低的问题也很突出。长此以往,我国的经济很难持续、健康发展下去。     

新形势下加快转变经济发展方式之我见

改革开放以来，我国经济持续陕速增长，综合国力明显增强，人民生活水平大幅提高，社会主义现代化建设取得举世公认的伟大成就。但同时也应该看到，我国经济增长方式比较粗放，实现经济增长付出的代价过大。自从党的十四届五中全会确立实现经济增长方式根本性转变的战略方针以来，我国虽然在这方面取得不少成效，但从总体上看，经济增长方式尚未实现根本性转变。近年来，随着经济增长速度加快，增长方式粗放的问题更加突出，资源环境面临的压力越来越大，不仅影响短期的健康发展，更为重要的是，     

推进经济增长方式转变的途径与措施

建国以来,尤其是改革开放以来,我国经济建设取得了巨大成就,经济发展速度之快,在世界上名列前茅,举世瞩目.由于经济的高速增长,我国经济实力迅速增强,市场繁荣,购销两旺,城乡人民生活水平显著提高.但在取得伟大成就的同时,我国经济发展存在一个突出的弱点,那就是经济效益不高,我国经济长期处于粗放经营的速度型增长方式之下.这种粗放经营的增长方式,同我国国民经济持续、快速、健康发展和不断提高人民生活水平的要求不相适应,必须努力推进经济增长方式从粗放型向集约型的转变,把提高经济效益作为经济工作的中心.     

Does the analysis of innovation barriers perceived by high growth firms provide information on innovation policy priorities?

High growth firms and reducing innovation barriers figure high in the European innovation policy debate. Do high growth firms face specific innovation barriers which are relevant for innovation policy? In this paper we study the robustness of the perception of innovation barriers when alternative definitions of high growth firms are used. Using data from two waves of the European Innovation survey (CIS 4 and CIS 2006) we show not only that different definitions of high growth firms lead to quite different results across country groups, but also that the results are quite different for the CIS 4 and CIS 2006 samples. We argue that in the light of the available empirical evidence this non-robustness should not come as a surprise and that this negative result makes it difficult to specifically target high growth firms with public policies. Fostering the emergence of high growth innovative firms in Europe may not be feasible with targeted funding policies only but needs a systemic approach.     

Intersectoral Spillovers,Relative Prices and Development Traps

Why is the economic growth rate so low in poor countries? This paper offers an explanation by using a simple two‐sector AK growth model with intersectoral linkages and high relative prices of intermediate goods. Intersectoral linkages lead to two balanced growth paths (BGPs). The high‐growth BGP is a source. The low‐growth BGP is a sink because it has a small final goods sector, small intersectoral spillovers from the final goods sector to the intermediate goods sector, and small marginal products in the intermediate goods sector, yielding high relative prices of intermediate goods. The low‐growth BGP is an attractor and thus development trap. To produce a big push effect, this paper analyzes the first‐best policy and finds that a subsidy to own consumption and a provision of public goods to the final goods sector can internalize the external effect and render the low‐growth BGP infeasible. As a result, there is only the high‐growth BGP.     

Government size and economic growth in an endogenous growth model with rent‐seeking

We explore the relationship between government size and economic growth in an endogenous growth model with human capital and an unproductive capital which facilitates rent‐seeking. With exogenous as well as endogenous time discounting, we find a non‐monotonic relationship between the size of government and economic growth. We find that with very high (low) discounting, there is a unique low (high) growth equilibrium, regardless of the size of government. For the intermediate range of discounting, there are multiple equilibria and the growth outcome depends on the size of government. With endogenous time discounting, the growth outcome is path dependent and depends on the level of inherited human capital. However, there is only one stable growth regime and the economy endogenously switches to it. When the institutional constraints on rent‐seeking are not extremely high, the stable regime is the one in which there is a high‐growth equilibrium for a smaller size of the government and for larger size, both the high‐growth and the low‐growth equilibrium coexist. When the institutional constraints on rent‐seeking are extremely high, there exists only a unique high‐growth equilibrium irrespective of the size of government. Furthermore, economies with bigger size of the government and/or with poor quality institutions will take longer to endogenously switch to this stable growth regime.     

Unbalanced Growth and the Sustainability of the Current Account Deficit

In an endogenous growth framework, a two‐country economy is modeled with an integrated product and asset markets. The countries differ with respect to the share of their GDP that is redistributed through the fiscal system, and the country where this share is smaller tends to grow faster. This high‐growth country finances a portion of its investment expenditures by attracting funds from the low‐growth country, whose growth rate is depressed by this outflow. The high‐growth country runs ever‐increasing current account deficits and its negative net international investment position rises without bounds. This notwithstanding, sustainability is guaranteed.     

论东亚地区社会信任与经济增长的正相关效应

越来越多的研究表明社会信任是解释经济增长的一个重要变量。不过一般认为华人社会是一个低信任度的社会。但WSV的调查数据证明不仅华人社会，而且整个东亚地区中那些在近40年经历了快速增长的经济体中都有非常高的信任度，这种信任也是这一地区经济增长的源泉。     

REGIME DEPENDENT EFFECT OF OUTPUT GROWTH ON OUTPUT GROWTH UNCERTAINTY: EVIDENCE FROM OECD COUNTRIES

This paper studies the impact of output growth on output growth uncertainty by considering two important issues hitherto not properly and adequately addressed to in the existing empirical studies specifying this relationship. These are: (i) the possible existence of a threshold level of output growth, and the consequent identification of two regimes characterized by high and low output growth, and (ii) whether or not the coefficient capturing the causal link is different in these two output growth states. This paper proposes a regime switching model to study this asymmetric effect for 16 OECD countries. Based on monthly time‐series observations, our results strongly support that the impact varies significantly between the two output growth regimes with the coefficient in the high growth regime being negative for majority of the countries.     

HIV infection and economic growth

This paper presents an endogenous growth model based on a simplified ‘learning by doing’ model. In this model, a negative shock, namely HIV infection, leads to a stationary active population. We show it is possible to neutralize the effects of the HIV shock while at the same time insuring steady economic growth. However, this result vanishes in the absence of a policy to fight against the HIV shock. Further, an increase of the HIV infection rate negatively affects the growth rate of the economy. This last finding implies that a high and sustainable economic growth rate is incompatible with a high incidence of HIV infection of the active population.     

中国高新区产业政策与制度变迁的效应研究——基于贝叶斯网络方法的情景分析

本文提出一个应用贝叶斯网络模型对宏观区域政策与高新技术产业政策使用效果进行情景分析的决策框架。中国高新技术产业开发区的建立和发展很大程度上依赖于政府政策,然而先前对影响中国高新区发展因素的研究主要集中在禀赋因素,如固定资产投资额或从业员工人数等,缺乏对制度性因素如省级高新区"升级"成国家级这一制度变迁效应的实证考察。对此,本文借助贝叶斯网络静态情景分析方法探讨制度因素与高新区成长之间的关系,结果显示:制度因素在中国高新区发展中起到关键作用,省级高新区"升级"政策如果结合加大R&D经费投入将会促进高新区成长。     

中国中长期煤炭需求预测

首先对中国煤炭需求与经济增长的关系进行验证,然后将工业化水平、城市化率等变量纳入煤炭需求协整模型,分析了经济增长、工业化水平、城市化率、煤炭价格、煤炭利用效率和能源替代效应对煤炭需求的影响,并预测了在3种经济增长速度(高、中、低)下2012—2030年中国的煤炭需求。结果显示:未来20年期间中国煤炭需求仍将持续增长;经济低速增长下中国煤炭需求的增幅远低于经济高速或中速增长下的增幅;在城市化和工业化进程中,煤炭消费总量将经历刚性高增长阶段;煤炭利用效率、煤炭价格和能源替代效应对煤炭需求有一定影响。     

Simultaneous estimation of income and price elasticities of export demand,scale economies and total factor productivity growth for Brazil

This article focuses on a growth model in which (unlike other models) low (high) export demand elasticities and the fact that developing countries are importers of capital goods help explaining the slow (high) growth of these countries in the transition and in the steady state. The question arises whether export demand elasticities are low or high. For answering this question, export demand elasticities for the case of Brazil are obtained by estimation of the model. As a by-product of estimating the model, we obtain estimates for total-factor productivity growth and for scale economies. Based on the results from estimation we calculate steady-state growth rates, engine and handmaiden effects of growth as well as dynamic steady-state gains from trade. The model and the results are discussed in regard to several strands of literature.