服务贸易自由化与中国应对策略的探析

服务贸易自由化是在服务贸易重要性显现以及全球经济一体化背景下提出的。随着国际服务贸易发展程度的深化,全球经济一体化进程的加快,以及《服务贸易总协定》的签订,服务贸易自由化可谓是大势所趋。这必将对世界各国服务贸易的发展和政府经济政策的制定产生众多深远的影响。服务贸易自由化既具有积极的经济效应,又具有一定的负面效应。作为既是发展中国家也是WTO成员方的中国,服务贸易自由化对我们来说是机遇也是挑战。我们必须要在这一趋势下认清中国服务贸易发展的现状,抓住机遇,并勇于迎接挑战,制定符合中国实际的应对策略,提高中国服务贸易的竞争力。     

The influence of international trade on labour productivity in services: The case of Brazil in the 1990s

In the developing world, services account for a rising share of domestic employment and international trade. Thus, it is important to know whether trade liberalization contributes to labour productivity in services. We explore this question, examining the 1990–2000 Brazilian trade liberalization. We find that growth of imports and exports strengthened labour productivity in services, but the contribution was smaller in subsectors with more college graduates, and this negative offset was larger in subsectors that received large foreign direct investment (FDI) inflows. Improved access to imported manufactured intermediate inputs raised downstream services' labour productivity and downstream manufacturing firms benefitting from tariff cuts enacted by trade partners generated spillovers that improved the labour productivity of upstream service subsectors. However, FDI inflows and investments in human and physical capital modified these downstream factors. We conclude that the Brazilian trade liberalization strengthened productivity in services, but unequally across subsectors.     

SOME ESTIMATES OF TRADE FLOWS IN BANKING SERVICES

This paper presents some estimates of international trade in banking services. We use IMF data on assets and liabilities of both domestic banks and non-banks with foreign banks, and of foreigners with the domestic banking system to construct measures of the volume of transactions on which banking intermediation services are provided across national borders. We then use estimates of the spread between borrowing and lending rates for depositors and borrowers with the financial institutions involved to estimate the value of international flows of intermediation services. Estimates are presented for 1982–84 and 1991–93 for the U.S., the U.K., and Canada.     

Financial Openness in Turkey

The purpose of this paper is to analyse the effects of financial liberalization on the financial and real sectors of the Turkish economy. The process of liberalization began over 15 years ago simultaneously with a stabilization programme that had been designed according to neoclassical model. The implementation addressed first foreign trade, then the domestic financial market and finally foreign capital movements. Contrary to theoretical expectations, the opening of the capital account induced adverse effects on financial intermediation, savings, investment, growth and foreign debt.     

Interest Groups, Trade Liberalization, and Environmental Standards

In considering a country that imposes a minimum standard on an imported polluting good, which generates negative consumption externalities, we construct a common-agency model, in which a domestic environmental group and a foreign industrial lobby can influence the formation of the minimum standard by providing political contributions to the government. This paper investigates the effects of trade liberalization on the political equilibrium environmental standard, the pattern of trade, environmental disutility, and social welfare. We find that trade liberalization tightens the minimum standard, decreases imports of the polluting good, and reduces environmental disutilities. The importing country’s social welfare, however, does not necessarily increase with trade liberalization. The weaker the environmental group’s lobbying efficiency, or the stronger the foreign firm’s lobbying efficiency, the more likely it is that trade liberalization will enhance the importing country’s welfare.     

Quantifying the impact of services liberalization in a developing country

We compare goods versus services liberalization in terms of welfare, outputs, and factor prices in Tunisia using a CGE model with multiple products, services and trading partners. Restraints on services trade involve both cross-border supply (tariff-equivalent price wedges) and on foreign ownership (monopoly-rent distortions and inefficiency costs). Goods-trade liberalization yields a modest gain in aggregate welfare. Reducing service barriers generate relatively large welfare gains and low adjustment costs. Services liberalization increases economic activity in all sectors and raise the real returns to both capital and labor. The results point to the potential importance of deregulating services provision for economic development.     

Modeling services liberalization: The case of Kenya

This paper employs a 55 sector small open economy computable general equilibrium model of the Kenyan economy to assess the impact of the liberalization of regulatory barriers against foreign and domestic business service providers in Kenya. The model incorporates foreign direct investment in business services and productivity effects in imperfectly competitive goods and services markets endogenously, through a Dixit–Stiglitz framework. The ad valorem equivalent of barriers to foreign direct investment have been estimated based on detailed questionnaires completed by specialists in Kenya. We estimate very substantial gains to Kenya from regulatory liberalization in business services, and additional gains from uniform tariffs. The estimated gains increase to 50% of consumption in the long run steady state model, where the impact on the accumulation of capital from an improvement in the productivity of capital is taken into account. Decomposition exercises reveal that the largest gains to Kenya will derive from liberalization of costly regulatory barriers that are non-discriminatory in their impacts between Kenyan and multinational service providers.     

中国服务贸易竞争力分析——基于贸易竞争力指数的评价

中国加入WTO后,服务业和服务贸易面临着巨大机遇和挑战。为提升中国服务贸易的国际竞争力,在分析了中国服务贸易发展现状的基础上,基于贸易竞争指数评价法对中国服务贸易的国际竞争力进行了总体及分部门的国际比较,并根据指标的评价结果和相关影响因素分析,提出了一些提高中国服务贸易国际竞争力的对策建议。     

服务贸易总协定下的审慎监管制度述评

金融自由化与金融有效监管是GATS框架体系在金融服务贸易领域的两大基本目标.为平衡二者之间的关系,GATS及其附件规定了审慎监管制度,由于审慎例外条款自身规定的抽象性及其优先适用性大大削弱了金融自由化的成果.为弥补审慎例外条款这种实体性规则不足的缺憾,GATS为成员方规定了审慎监管标准协调与认可的程序性义务.GATS框架下的审慎监管制度对中国金融业的自由化与监管具有重要的现实意义.     

Free Trade Agreements and the Prospects for Regional Integration in East Asia

Trade policy in East Asia has switched from non-discriminatory unilateral liberalization, reinforced by General Agreements on Tariffs and Trade/World Trade Organization (GATT/WTO) commitments, to discriminatory free trade agreements (FTA). The paper surveys the FTA activity of the major regional players: China, the ASEAN countries, Japan, and South Korea. It concludes that emerging FTAs are weak and partial. A hub-and-spoke pattern of dirty FTAs will not drive regional economic integration or further integration with the global economy. Rather, it could be a force of regional economic disintegration – especially if the multilateral trading system weakens further. At the same time, FTA activity is distracting attention from the WTO, and, more fundamentally, from unilateral liberalization and domestic structural reforms. Hence, East Asian trade policies need to be rebalanced, with better-quality FTAs and more focus on the WTO. However, more important than the WTO and FTAs is a fresh spurt of unilateral liberalization and structural reform outside trade negotiations.     

International Provision of Trade Services, Trade, and Fragmentation

This paper examines the special role that trade liberalization in service industries can play in stimulating not only trade in services but also in goods. International trade in goods requires inputs from several services industries (trade services, such as transportation, insurance, and finance) in order to complete and facilitate international transactions. Restriction on the ability of national service providers to provide these services across borders and within foreign countries creates additional costs and barriers to international trade above those that would arise in otherwise comparable intranational exchange. As a result, trade liberalization in services can yield benefits, by facilitating trade in goods, that are larger than one might expect from analysis of the services trade alone. This paper explores this idea using simple theoretical models to specify the relationships between services trade and goods trade. The paper also notes the role of services trade in a model of international industrial fragmentation, where production processes can be separated across locations but at some cost in terms of additional service inputs. The incentives for such fragmentation can be larger across countries than within countries, owing to the greater differences in factor prices and technologies available. However, the service costs of international fragmentation can also be larger, especially if regulations and restrictions impede the international provision of services. As a result, trade liberalization in services can also stimulate fragmentation of production of both goods and services, thus increasing international trade and the gains from trade even further.     

Multi-product firms,heterogeneous quality and exporting behaviour: product-level evidence from the movie industry

This article examines how quality affects heterogeneous multiple-product firms’ exporting behaviours. We develop a structural model of the global movie market, including both consumers’ movie demand choices and firms’ exporting decisions. A movie studio is a multi-product firm that releases many movies within a year. We model movie quality as a combination of firm-level appeal and product-level attractiveness. We find that both studio-level and movie-level heterogeneity affect demand for movie, and movie-level heterogeneity is relatively more important. We also explore the counterfactual effects of quality improvement and trade liberalization on trade. Our results show that improvement of quality increases both intensive margin and extensive margin of trade. By elimination of quota, we find that trade liberalization increases movie exports to a foreign market by 19%. The results of our study can also help improve understanding of trade in the service industry. For instance, we do not find a positive correlation between the foreign entry costs and the geographic distance, as in the case of manufacture goods.     

Politics of scale and strategic selectivity in the liberalisation of public services – the role of trade in services

One of the most contentious issues of the neoliberal agenda has been the privatisation of public services. The WTO GATS negotiations over the liberalisation of trade in services, which commenced in the year 2000, led to a strongly contested debate over whether the international level would provide an additional channel for the privatisation of public services. In particular, the position of the European Union was criticised for promoting this agenda. More recently, this question has regained its significance with the start of negotiations for the Trade in Services Agreement and the Transatlantic Trade and Investment Partnership. Thus, this article seeks to analyse the politics of scale in the field of trade in services and its specific impact upon the liberalisation of public services. By applying a Neo-Poulantzian IPE approach, we propose a typology of (i) scalar forms in trade policy and (ii) of particular liberalisation strategies. Our results suggest that the multilateral level is but one element in a strategic politics of scale, with the former primarily fulfilling the role of locking-in liberalisation gains achieved at other levels, while other scalar forms, in particular bi- and plurilateralism, are primarily used to progressively advance the liberalisation agenda.     

Abenomics and Japan's Trade Policy in a New Era

Trade policy, in particular, the Trans‐Pacific Partnership Agreement (TPP), has been a centerpiece of the Abe administration's economic strategy. The TPP's contributions to Japan's growth strategy include: (i) creating trade and investment opportunities abroad for Japanese companies through ambitious liberalization targets; (ii) advancing domestic reforms – with the largest service and agricultural liberalization commitments to date; and (iii) increasing bargaining leverage in other trade negotiations. But the domestic reform goals of Abenomics in agriculture have come up short due to opposition from domestic lobbies. American trade politics – which culminated in the US withdrawal from the TPP – have upended the goals of trade policy under Abenomics. Japan's best option in this new environment is to deliver on high quality, multi‐party trade agreements: concluding negotiations with Europe; scaling up the ambition of Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership; and salvaging a TPP 11. The merits of a bilateral free trade agreement with the USA will depend on how the Trump administration operationalizes its America First policy.     

The Impact of Liberalizing Barriers to Foreign Direct Investment in Services: The Case of Russian Accession to the World Trade Organization

In this paper a computable general equilibrium model of the Russian economy is used to assess the impact of accession to the World Trade Organization (WTO), which encompasses improved market access, Russian tariff reduction, and reduction of barriers against multinational service providers. It is assumed that foreign direct investment in business services is necessary for multinationals to compete well with Russian business services providers, but cross‐border service provision is also present. The model incorporates productivity effects in both goods and services markets endogenously, through a Dixit–Stiglitz framework. It is estimated that Russia will gain about 7.2% of the value of Russian consumption in the medium term from WTO accession and up to 24% in the long run. It is also estimated that the largest gains to Russia will derive from liberalization of barriers against multinational service providers. Piecemeal and systematic sensitivity analysis shows that the results are robust.     

区域服务贸易自由化合作机制的博弈分析——以中国——东盟自由贸易区为例

笔者以中国——东盟自由贸易区服务贸易自由化发展为例,探讨了区域服务贸易自由化的合作机制。首先分析了中国——东盟发展服务贸易的现实基础,并从合作博弈的角度提出合作是区域服务贸易自由化发展的唯一手段,利用议价模型进一步分析如何通过有效协商达成区域服务贸易合作的目的,在此基础上,提出了发展区域服务贸易自由化的对策建议。     

服务贸易的货物贸易条件效应研究——基于伯格斯模型的分析与扩展

文章基于伯格斯模型,分析检验了服务贸易的净进口与我国货物价格贸易条件恶化之间的关系,初步证明了该模型在我国的适用性。进一步地,文章对2004-2008年我国价格贸易条件恶化有所趋缓这一特征进行了分析。结果表明,不同服务部门的净进口对我国货物贸易条件的影响不尽相同。文章得出的政策启示在于:当考察我国服务业开放和服务贸易自由化的收益时,要同时注意到货物价格贸易条件恶化可能带来的福利损失;我国在制定服务业对外开放与服务贸易自由化发展战略时,采取逐步开放和参与的战略尤为重要;另外,可以优先加强对通信、建筑、计算机和信息服务、咨询以及电影音像五大类服务部门的扶持以促进其出口。     

A Model of Trade Liberalization in Services*

This paper develops an intra‐industry service trade model taking into account important features of services. We find that service trade liberalization between identical economies is welfare enhancing when the pre‐trade domestic market liberalization is limited. This holds regardless of the degree of trade liberalization and of the mode of supply. However, if the pre‐trade environment is characterized by a free‐entry equilibrium, then service trade liberalization is not necessarily welfare improving. It is welfare enhancing if the trade liberalization is full and the mode of supply is cross‐border. The gain from trade in our model comes from the improvement in service quality—better matching between consumers’ ideal varieties and firms’ product specificity. The implications for the mode of supply in service trade are also explored.     

Regulation, market structure and service trade liberalization

In this paper, we develop a theoretical method to quantify the importance of regulation and market structure on the success of service trade liberalization. For this purpose, we incorporate a single imperfectly competitive service sector that can take on various market structures into a standard computational general equilibrium model. We apply our framework to analyze the impact of partial telecom liberalization in Tunisia. We show that if the regulatory environment guarantees competition, Tunisia's welfare can improve up to 0.65%. If a cartel is formed between the domestic incumbent and foreign entrant, however, Tunisia's welfare can drop up to 0.25%. Our results thus call for Tunisia among other developing countries to step up its pro-competitive regulatory reforms while liberalizing its telecom sector.     

The Effects of Trade Liberalization in a Vertical Structure

Despite the importance of international trade on intermediate goods, the literature did not pay much attention to this aspect in determining the effects of trade liberalization in the presence of a labor union. We take up this issue here and show the effects of trade liberalization on the final goods and/or the intermediate goods, where the domestic firm pays unionized wage and imports intermediate goods. We show that trade liberalization on the intermediate goods (final goods) increases (decreases) the unionized wage, labor union's utility and domestic profit. Trade liberalization on both the final goods and intermediate goods may either increase or decrease the domestic unionized wage, labor union's utility and domestic profit depending on the input coefficients and the initial tariff levels. Our qualitative results are robust with respect to the intermediate goods market structure, the pricing strategy of the intermediate goods producers and the union's objective function.