Exchange rate uncertainty and the level of investment in selected South-east Asian countries

The effect of real exchange rate uncertainty on aggregate private investment in Indonesia, Malaysia, the Philippines and Thailand is examined using time series data from 1972–2000. Since the use of non-stationary time series data may produce spurious results, the data series are tested for stationarity using the augmented Dickey–Fuller and Phillips–Perron tests. After establishing the stationarity of the data series, cointegration tests are performed. The cointegration test results reject the hypothesis of no cointegration. Therefore, an error correction model is developed and estimated. The estimated results point to an inconclusive empirical relationship between real exchange rate volatility and aggregate private investment.     

Individual risk and Lebesgue extension without aggregate uncertainty

Many economic models include random shocks imposed on a large number (continuum) of economic agents with individual risk. In this context, an exact law of large numbers and its converse is presented in [Y.N. Sun, The exact law of large numbers via Fubini extension and characterization of insurable risks, J. Econ. Theory 126 (2006) 31-69] to characterize the cancellation of individual risk via aggregation. However, it is well known that the Lebesgue unit interval is not suitable for modeling a continuum of agents in the particular setting. The purpose of this paper is to show that an extension of the Lebesgue unit interval does work well as an agent space with various desirable properties associated with individual risk.     

Informational size and incentive compatibility with aggregate uncertainty

In McLean and Postlewaite (Econometrica 56, 1992, p. 2421), we analyzed pure exchange economies with asymmetrically informed agents. We defined a notion of informational size and showed that, when the aggregate information of all agents resolves nearly all the uncertainty regarding the state of nature, the conflict between incentive compatibility and (ex post) efficiency can be made small if agents have sufficiently small informational size. This paper investigates the relationship between informational size and efficiency for the case in which nontrivial aggregate uncertainty is present, i.e., when significant uncertainty about the world persists even when the information of all agents is known.     

The role of uncertainty in forecasting employment by skill and industry

We show that the macroeconomic uncertainty series from Jurado, Ludvigson, and Ng (2015) contains information to forecast employment. The results indicate that the uncertainty measure is weak at forecasting the skilled labour but significantly carries forecasting information on the unskilled labour. The forecasting information increases if the sample is restricted to construction and manufacturing industries. Using rolling regressions to conduct a simulated out-of-sample forecasting exercise, we find that the uncertainty measure contains forecasting information for the unskilled labour in those industries for two quarters ahead. By providing detailed information about the forecasting power of uncertainty by skill and industry, this study will be helpful in designing more efficient labour market policies.     

An expository note on individual risk without aggregate uncertainty

In economies where agents bear some risk, the analysis would often be facilitated by the assumption that the risks are i.i.d. and disappear in the aggregate. A formal appeal to the law of large numbers requires the consideration of a sequence of finite economies. In an economy with a continuum of agents there are countable families of sets for which it is impossible for a law of large numbers to be valid. With countably many agents and a finitely additive measure, independence is compatible with the law of large numbers.     

Investment and employment with unlimited labor: The role of aggregate demand

While the rate of growth of ouput has been rapid in many LDC's in the post-World War II period, the rate of growth of employment has been disappointing. This paper argues that the reason may lie in a lack of aggregate effective demand. It is pointed out that the main works in the field (such as those of Arthur Lewis and Dale Jorgenson) basically just assumed there could be no shortage of aggregate demand. A one-sector model, fitted to Malaysiandata, is used to quantify the argument.     

The rise of service employment and its impact on aggregate productivity growth

This paper investigates how the employment shift from manufacturing toward service sectors affects the rate of economic growth when services play their role both in intermediate and in final demand. Our model includes as a special case both Baumol’s [Baumol, W.J., 1967. Macroeconomics of unbalanced growth: the anatomy of urban crisis. American Economic Review 57 (3), 415–426] model, in which services are produced only for final consumption, and Oulton’s [Oulton, N., 2001. Must the growth rate decline? Baumol’s unbalanced growth revisited. Oxford Economic Papers 53 (4), 605–627] model, in which services are entirely devoted to intermediate demand. We show that, given that the growth rate of productivity in the service sector is lower than that in the manufacturing sector, both the employment share in manufacturing and the rate of economic growth will decline in the long run irrespective of the size of the elasticity of substitution between labor and service input.     

Monetary policy uncertainty and interest rate targeting

This paper studies the issue of monetary delegation in the case where central banker’s preferences are uncertain. A distinctive feature of the analysis is that it introduces nominal interest rate targets to the monetary delegation scheme in addition to linear contracts, quadratic punishments, and inflation targets. This paper shows that the implementation of interest rate targeting will improve social welfare since it leads the central bank to make smaller interventions, which limits the scope for the central bank’s uncertain preferences to impact the economy.     

Short-run exchange rate uncertainty in Latin America

This paper to obtain an ex ante measure of exchange rate uncertainty in 11 Latin American countries. As a preliminary issue, the purchasing power parity (PPP) condition is tested using Engle and Granger two-step procedure and Johansen method. The argument is that exchange rate uncertainty could be lower if PPP holds in the long run. The expected exchange rate uncertainty is estimated according to an extended version of the autoregressive, conditionally heteroscedastic (ARCH) model. The results show that the ARCH adjusment produces more efficient estimates in seven countries and that the acceptance of PPP has little effect on exchange rate uncertainty.     

Exchange rate dynamics in integrated markets

This paper intends to formalize the behavior of exchange rate dynamics in integrated markets. The decomposition of the exchange rate behavior in different time frequencies suggests that both stochastic and fundamental processes as well as exogenous random shocks are present in the determination of the nominal exchange rate dynamics in integrated countries. A stochastic process within a potential well captures all the elements observed in the data. In addition, the mathematical solutions shed some light on the relationship between the stochastic process and the drift found in the literature. Finally, this model provides an alternative to the Standard Target Zone Stochastic Model thus far used to analyze the exchange rate dynamics in integrated markets.     

The information content of regional employment data for forecasting aggregate conditions

We consider whether disaggregated data enhance the efficiency of aggregate employment forecasts. We find that incorporating spatial interaction into a disaggregated forecasting model lowers the out-of-sample mean squared error from a univariate aggregate model by 70% at a two-year horizon.     

Endogenous employment rate in the efficiency wage shirking approach

The aim of New Keynesian theorists is to obtain Keynesian results on the basis of maximizing behavior. Accordingly, the New Keynesian shirking models depict a world of fully rational maximizing agents where equilibrium unemployment is the main consequence of the payment of efficiency wages. The problem is that oversimplified nature of most shirking models has until now prevented a full investigation of the interdependence of unemployment, the effort supplied by workers and labor demand. This article shows that the existence of this interdependence weakens the whole approach. In particular, when the unemployment rate is considered a truly endogenous variable, the stability of the macroeconomic equilibrium is generally incompatible with the existence of unemployment ascribed to the fact that firms pay efficiency wages.     

Exchange rate and long run equilibrium in transition economies

The purpose of this paper is to calculate pruchasing power parity rates and the real exchange rate using several methods of calculation to estimate long-run equilibrium real exchange rates in transition economies, mainly in Eastern European countries considered in transition, such as Poland. The authors calculate different measures of exchange rate misalignment (absolute and relative deviations from long-run equilibrium). Each measure is calculated using different price indices, which include consumer price indices, GDP deflactor, and unit labor cost. The expected values of these variables are used. To calculate the long-run equilibrium, different methods such as an error correction equation and a forward-looking model are utilized, and again, the expected values of the variables are introduced along with new variables. The estimation of the long-run cointegration equation of the equilibrium real exchange rate and the corresponding dynamic error correction specification strongly corroborates the model and produced fairly consistent results across the countries under study. Using appropriated proxies, the estimated long run equations were used to derive indices of the equilibrium real exchange rate.     

Exchange rate pass-through in Turkish export and import prices

This article investigates the effects of horizontal acquisitions on the performance of target firms in the 1990s. Using French manufacturing firm-level data, we examine two main indicators of performance: the profit and the productive efficiency. We distinguish domestic from cross-border acquisitions. To evaluate the impact of take-overs, we implement appropriate difference-in-difference estimation techniques associated to a matching propensity score procedure. We find that Mergers &?Acquisitions (M&A) do not increase the profit of French target firms, even on the long run. However, they clearly raise the productivity of target firms. These results suggest that firms probably redistribute efficiency gains at the upstream and/or downstream production stage. There is no evidence of an increase in market power. In addition, the consequences of domestic and cross-border M&A significantly differ. Efficiency gains are stronger for cross-border M&A. This conclusion is however true only for extra-European Union operations. The achievement in the European economic integration certainly explains the absence of difference between European and domestic acquisitions. Finally, our results cast some doubt on the frequent discrimination attitude towards foreign takeovers and the fears of their impact on firms’ performance and the host country's welfare.