The microeconomics of the developmental paradox: on the political economy of food price policy

A longstanding puzzle in comparative economics is the ‘developmental paradox’, the tendency for government support for agriculture to increase with national income and to decrease with the proportion of economic activity and of the population in agriculture. This paper offers a microeconomic explanation for that puzzle. It establishes analytically the microeconomic basis for coalition alignments with respect to food price policy, then numerically simulates the comparative static effects of alternative food policies on coalition structure. A parsimonious household model applied to a heterogeneously endowed society demonstrates how variation in individual welfare effects might beget distinct coalitions in the debate over food price policy and how those policies are inextricably linked to land, population, and technology policies in food agriculture. Moreover, coalition alignments on particular policy debates are path-dependent. In particular, food price policy creates its own political support.     

We,campesinos: The potentials and pitfalls of agrarian populism in Colombia's agrarian strike

This contribution aims to explore the potentials and pitfalls for the emergence of a popular agrarian movement capable of offering a progressive alternative to the far-right. Taking the case of Colombia's national agrarian strike, the paper argues that food sovereignty can offer a mobilizing framework for a multiclass, antineoliberal agrarian coalition. However, the possibilities for building a counter-hegemonic movement should be taken with more caution. An examination of the class differentiation between and within campesino movements reveals how the interests of certain groups may be prioritized over others. While agrarian populism may offer an important political strategy for building coalitions and framing demands, a closer class analysis points to limits to its transformative potential.     

State,war, and land dispossession: The multiple paths to land concentration

We focus on the role of the state in land dispossession during war. State agencies promote land accumulation not only through coercive paths, but also by combining political and market mechanisms. Each mechanism may link the state with different actors and coalitions. We illustrate how this worked in Tibú, a Colombian municipality in which violence against civilians and land accumulation took place in more or less distinct phases. The case highlights the fact that land accumulation during war is not only achieved through coercion. At the same time, it shows the importance of identifying the specific coalitions through which states establish their presence in contested territories during war. We explain such variation as resulting from the types of alliances and coalitions that the state establishes with different sets of stakeholders, and the aims pursued by coalition actors.     

The politics of environmental market instruments: Coalition building and knowledge filtering in the regulation of forest certificates trading in Brazil

Market instruments for environmental governance have a foundation in an economic theorythat claims to be universal and atemporal, but their materialization in practice always takes place in specific socioeconomic and political contexts. The Brazilian trade in forest certificates (CRA) is a new market instrument that allows farmers that have deforested illegally prior to 2008 to become compliant by acquiring certificates from other farmers that conserve a forest area beyond legal requirements. Even though the CRA market has been praised as an innovative environmental policy, it is still unclear whether it will be implemented even after more than two decades of political debate, congressional approval of legislation and substantial investments in new supporting systems. This research paper aims to analyze the materialization of this market by reconstructing how policy participants form advocacy coalitions (i.e. environmental protection, market viability and agricultural consolidation) to advance their interests. Our results show that advocacy coalitions filter (i.e. absorb, reject or transform) new ideas, experiences and knowledge in order to influence the regulations for forest certificate trading. In doing so, they often combine positions, form new alliances and merge with other advocacy coalitions in accordance with the interests of their constituents. These fluid allegiances within and between coalitions explain why market materialization remains ambiguous and unlikely to become operational in the near future.     

Power relationships and coalitions in urban renewal and heritage conservation: The Nga Tsin Wai Village in Hong Kong

Urban renewal has been predominantly driven by themes of property-led and economic profit-driven redevelopment. The immense redevelopment pressures in dense urban cities have often posed unresolved conflicts in the conservation of historic quarters, particularly vernacular buildings with local significance instead of designated monuments with outstanding heritage value. This study examines the 20-year debate over the conservation and redevelopment of Nga Tsin Wai Old Village, one of the very few remaining villages in the urban area in Hong Kong. This case vividly demonstrates the contestations between the urban redevelopment and heritage conservation regimes and the multiple power relations that exist within each coalition. By combining the urban regime theory with the growth machine thesis, this study illustrates the complex interplay of power relations and struggles amongst different actors to determine their roles and interests, exercise of power and formation of coalitions. As such, the findings of this work improve our understanding of the sequential interrelationships amongst the power struggles of different actors, the redistribution of power, the formed coalitions and the supportive institutional arrangements in the redevelopment–conservation debate, thereby minimising the imbalanced power relations between these two discourses. This study also provides insights that can aid in the formulation of land use planning policies that can also be applied to other cities that are undergoing urban renewal.     

Risk pooling cooperative games in contract farming

Contract farming can be an effective measure to deal with agricultural production risks. This study provides a two‐stage stochastic programming model to analyze farmers’ cooperation in the context of contract farming under uncertainty. It provides a fair cost allocation policy for a coalition of farmers using a stochastic linear duality approach. A fair cost allocation implies that no subset of farmers has an incentive to leave the coalition. Thus, a fair allocation policy ensures the stability of a coalition. Meanwhile, the risk pooling game is shown to have population monotonicity, which means that, every time a coalition adds a new member, each farmer within the coalition will incur a smaller cost. Hence, the population monotonicity gives an incentive for coalition expansion. Our results not only provide a simple way to design fair cost allocation policies for collaboration strategies in contract farming, but also play an important role in the sustainable development of farmers’ coalitions.     

The Ghana Grains Partnership

A surge in international food prices that began in 2008 led to a variety of responses from African governments, ranging from price controls, trade restrictions and food security stocks, to facilitating longer-term increase in supply-side increases in production. In Ghana, the objectives emphasized broad-based, pro-poor agricultural growth, expansion of high-value cash crops and improved production of food crops. A hybrid of crop rotation plus addition of external inputs of fertilizers in a modern intensified farming regime was seen as a way forward. The Ghana Grains Partnership (GGP) was underpinned by this assumption, addressing a national shortfall in maize through a coordinated and market-led value chain development approach. The Partnership was initially made up of international and national agribusinesses, an agricultural development fund, farmers and farmer associations and a commercial bank and coordinated by Prorustica. The GGP adopted innovative approaches such as the coordination of commercial and non-commercial objectives. The focus on complete agricultural value chains provided a holistic approach to meet the needs of farmers for agricultural inputs and finance and addressed constraints to more effective commodity output markets. The Partnership's basic principles included the setting up of a farmers' grain association with the partners sharing the costs, benefits and risks.     

全球农产品贸易网络演化与中国对策

目的 面对日益严峻复杂的国际经济政治环境,理清全球农产品贸易格局演变的特征及趋势,对于及时应对国际农产品市场风险、提高国际循环利用能力具有重要意义。方法 基于社会网络分析法,利用1996—2021年世界农产品贸易数据,文章从总体—行业—加工程度3个维度分别构建了全球农产品贸易网络,定量分析了全球农产品贸易网络的格局演化及重要节点特征。结果 （1）各国间农产品贸易关联日益加深,处于核心地位的国家数量显著增加,以美国为代表的单中心主导地位被削弱,但由少数国家主导全球农产品贸易的情形并未改变。（2）中国在全球农产品贸易网络中地位显著提升,点度中心度和接近中心度均位于前列,但中介中心度处于较低水平,说明中国对全球农业资源和市场的掌控能力依然不足。（3）各国在不同细分行业中的地位呈现明显的异质性,大多数国家的进口集中于少数贸易伙伴的少数产品,加工贸易逐渐成为全球农产品贸易的主流,发展高附加值农产品贸易成为各国农业贸易长远发展的战略选择。结论 为此,应持续优化农产品贸易布局,拓展与亚洲、拉美、非洲等新兴市场的贸易,不断提升农业全球价值链地位。     

The application of trade and growth theories to agriculture: a survey

This article reviews a broad range of theoretical concepts available to explain international trade in agricultural and food products. For many years agricultural trade analyses were largely based on traditional perceptions of comparative advantage following neoclassical theory. Observations of agricultural trade suggest, however, that concepts from modern trade and growth theories are increasingly relevant. This survey demonstrates that many opportunities exist for applying these new theories to the modern food economy.     

新农业政策的经济影响分析

本文在介绍了2004年以来我国的新农业政策的内容的基础上,简要分析了新农业政策实施的直接效果,重点分析了新农业政策对我国农业生产、进出口贸易、农产品消费者价格、农业生产者价格的影响,并据此提出了针对性的建议。     

Economic Liberalization and Smallholder Productivity in Tanzania. From Promised Success to Real Failure, 1985–1998

In the mid-1980s, Tanzania adopted a programme for economic liberalization of the entire economy, including agriculture. After pressure from the IMF and the World Bank in particular, but also from most of the bilateral donors, agricultural producer and input prices were decontrolled, panterritorial prices were abolished, subsidies were removed and trade in agricultural products and inputs was to a large extent taken over by private traders. The international donor community promised that economic liberalization would provide a strong stimulus to Tanzanian agriculture, resulting in increasing yields, increased labour productivity, rising agricultural production and higher incomes. However, available data show that, as far as food crop production is concerned, this promise has not been fulfilled. Even compared to the 'crisis years' 1979–1984, labour productivity, yields and production per capita of food grains stagnated or declined up to the end of the 1990s. Some causes of this failure are discussed.     

Trade and agricultural development in the 1980s and the challenges for the 1990s: Asia

Asian developing countries have had varying experiences in trade and agricultural development in the 1980s, attributable in part to their differing stages of economic development and structural characteristics. Other important influences relate to the external economic environment and the policy choices made by their governments not only during the period but also in the preceding decade. The achievements of Asian developing countries under the adverse external conditions of the 1980s are discussed in terms of their macrocconomic and agricultural growth, the commodity structure of agricultural growth, their food production and trade, the expansion and diversification of their agricultural exports, and the policy and nonpolicy factors affecting them. Special attention is given to the role of policy reforms implemented in China and the South Asian countries, following similar policy developments in Northeast and Southeast Asia in the 1960s and 1970s, toward greater openness in their trade regime and increased private-sector participation in the economy. These reforms have contributed to the observed acceleration in gup , agricultural, and export growth in the 1980s. However, macroeconomic imbalances have emerged that threaten the sustainability of economic liberalization in those countries. The major challenges for the 1990s also differ among the Asian developing countries. In the industrially advanced Northeast economies of Taiwan and South Korea, the primary need is to ease the transition of the remaining rural population as farm incomes continue to fall and workers move to industrial and service activities. This challenge has to be addressed in the context of growing external pressure to further open their domestic market for agricultural imports. Among the Southeast and South Asian countries, there is a need to reduce the existing policy biases against agriculture, particularly against export crop production. Moreover, China and the South Asian countries face the additional challenges of continuing to deregulate their trade regime and internal markets, and of promoting macroeconomic stability. Despite the external trend recently toward regionalism, Asian developing countries generally seem committed to an open trading system, on which in fact their past impressive economic performance has been predicated. An important challenge for them in the 1990s is to play an active role in arresting and reversing any protectionist tendencies arising from the formation of regional trading blocs and to support multilateral initiatives such as the Uruguay Round that promote global trade liberalization.     

Do U.S. citizens support government intervention in agriculture? Implications for the political economy of agricultural protection

The persistence of agricultural protectionism throughout the world is intriguing given the widely recognized benefits of free trade. The political economy literature over the last decades has considered groups’ interest, politicians’ preferences, and their interactions within domestic politics as the primary forces driving agricultural protection. Yet, a growing body of studies suggests that it would be judicious to weigh in consumers’ or taxpayers’ perspectives in deciphering the nature of agricultural protection. This study examines U.S. citizens’ preferences about government intervention in agriculture and trade. Results show that they are in strong support of agricultural protection and their perceptions of national food security, family farms, environmental sustainability, and multifunctionality of agriculture play a significant role in shaping their support/opposition toward government intervention. The conventional political economy literature theorizes that consumers or taxpayers would oppose public policies that increase their tax burden; however, in the case of the farm sector, they have little incentive to voice their objections given the costs of farm programs are spread across a large number of consumers and taxpayers. U.S. citizens’ support for government involvement in agriculture as reported in this and other prior studies does not lend support for such political economy explanation.     

What is the Appropriate Counterfactual When Estimating Effects of Multilateral Trade Policy Reform?

Multilateral trade reforms, such as may eventually emerge from the WTO's Doha Development Agenda (DDA), tend to be phased in over a decade or so after agreement is reached. Given the DDA's slow progress, that implementation may not be completed before the end of the next decade. Ex‐ante analysis of the DDA's possible effects thus requires first modelling the world economy to 2030 and, in that process, projecting what trade‐related policies might be by then without a DDA. Typically, modellers assume the counterfactual policy regime to be a ‘business‐as‐usual’ projection assuming the status quo. Yet we know developing country governments tend to switch from taxing to assisting farmers in the course of economic development. This paper shows the difference made by including political economy‐determined agricultural protection growth endogenously in the baseline projection. We reveal that difference by projecting the world economy to 2030 using the Global Trade Analysis Project (GTAP) model with those two alternative policy regimes and then simulating a move to global free trade (the maximum benefit from a multilateral trade reform) in each of those two cases. The welfare effects of removing the counterfactual price distortions in 2030 are shown to be much larger in the case where agricultural protection grows endogenously than in the case assuming no policy changes over the projection period. This suggests the traditional way of estimating effects of a multilateral agricultural trade agreement may considerably understate the potential welfare gains.     

Food Regime Analysis in a Post‐Neoliberal Era: Argentina and the Expansion of Transgenic Soybeans

This paper uses the food regime literature to analyse the political and economic relations promoting the expansion of soybeans in Argentina following the post‐neoliberal turn in the early 2000s. Continuities of the agrarian expansion from the neoliberal to post‐neoliberal model highlight the state's role in supporting a neoliberal food regime. Neoregulation in the post‐neoliberal agenda continues to favour increased production of transgenic food over ecological and human‐health considerations. Moreover, the emergence of new corporate and transnational actors has contributed to a new form of corporate‐agrarian governance premised on biotechnology. First, a food regime lens is used to describe the expansion of transgenic soybeans in Argentina, followed by an analysis of planning documents to show the state's position in reproducing neoliberal discourses and policies favouring the expansion of agriculture. The conclusion discusses the utility of food regime analysis for explaining the new forms of agricultural governance in Argentina.     

Manufactured regional crises: The Middle East and North Africa under global food regimes

The current agrarian and food crisis in the Middle East and North Africa (MENA) has been interpreted through a number of tropes. Within the dominant mainstream discourse, the MENA region is often depicted as a homogenous geographical area characterized by dryness, infertile lands and poor water resources. How did imperialism, colonialism and the Cold War influence the MENA food systems? What were the effects of trade liberalization and neoliberalism on the agricultural systems in the region? These are some questions that this paper will try to answer using a geographical and historical-comparative analysis, through a food regimes lens. Understanding contemporary social relations dynamics cannot be limited to the recent period. Agriculture and food in the MENA region are anchored in the history of power relations ruled by flows of capital and the shaping of ecological transformations during the longue durée of capitalism and its corresponding modes of control and regulation.     

Trade Creation and Diversion Effects of Preferential Trade Associations on Agricultural and Food Trade

Agricultural market distortions remain a major focus of contention in world trade negotiations. Estimates of the effects of liberalising current agricultural trade restrictions indicate an approximately $385 billion increase in global welfare, with the disproportionate share of the benefit being enjoyed by developing countries. In response to difficulties in adopting agricultural trade reforms, individual groups of countries have formed multiple bilateral and regional preferential trade agreements (PTA) to enhance trade among members. Few sectoral analyses exist of the effects on agricultural and food product trade of PTAs. This research uses a gravity model to isolate the effects of various PTAs on both intra‐ and extra‐bloc agricultural and food product trade for three time periods: 1995, 2000 and 2004. Findings strongly support PTA benefits in terms of increased intra‐bloc trade in both sectors. The findings also generally support trade creation in agricultural products. PTA membership was also associated with food trade creation in most cases, although diversion was observed for several associations composed primarily of developing countries.     

The Chilean Agrarian Transformation: Agrarian Reform and Capitalist 'Partial' Counter-Agrarian Reform, 1964–1980

This article, which is published in two parts, is an empirical analysis of the Chilean agrarian reform (1964–1973) and 'partial' counter-agrarian reform (1974–1980). Its aim is to explain and interpret their logic and the changes they brought to Chile's agrarian property regime in particular and Chilean life in general. Chile's agrarian reform was successful in expropriating (under the Frei and Allende administrations, 1964–1973) the great estates of the hacienda landed property system. The capitalist 'partial' counter-reform then redistributed them (under the military, 1974–1980). CORA, the country's agency for agrarian reform, expropriated and subsequently redistributed 5809 estates of almost 10 million hectares, or 59 per cent of Chile's agricultural farmland. A large amount of the expropriated land (41 per cent) benefited 54,000 peasant households with small-sized family farms and house-sites. The rest of the farmland benefited efficient and competitive commercial farmers and agro-business and consolidated medium-sized farms. Of central concern is the role of the agrarian reform and subsequent 'partial' counter-reform processes in fostering the transformation of the erstwhile agrarian structure of the hacienda system toward agrarian capitalism. The redistribution of the agricultural land previously expropriated made possible the formation of an agro-industrial bourgeoisie, small commercial farmers, an open land market and a dynamic agricultural sector. While, however, under military rule, a selected few benefited with family farms and became independent agricultural producers, a large majority of reformed and non-reformed campesinos were torn from the land to become non-propertied proletarians in a rapidly modernizing but highly exclusionary agricultural sector.