An empirical analysis of remittance flows into West African Economic and Monetary Union: a panel time-series approach

The article empirically analyses the motivations and long-run economic outcomes of remittance inflows into the West African Economic and Monetary Union. Using Westerlund’s (2007) ECM for panel time series and data spanning 1975–2011, the results show that there is no evidence of a long-run impact of remittances on income per capita in the region. The inflows seem to be motivated by investment, but the money may be used to promote consumption instead. This phenomenon could be characterized by information asymmetry between migrants and the recipients.     

Monetary policy evaluation. A counterfactual analysis based on dynamic factor models

This article complements the recent literature analysing the effects of the unconventional monetary stimuli applied after the Great Recession by proposing an intuitive and easy-to-implement method to evaluate different exit strategies towards a traditional monetary context. This approach, useful for central bankers or researchers interested in the effects of tapering, allows us to evaluate the consequences of a given monetary policy path on the future evolution of key macroeconomic indicators. The results based on this methodology provide a measurement of the differences in economic performance under contractionary and expansionary policies and support the recent success of monetary stimuli in boosting real indicators while having little effect on inflation.     

Monetary and Fiscal Policy-Makers in the European Economic and Monetary Union: Allies or Adversaries?

Optimal monetary and fiscal policies within the European Economic and Monetary Union (EMU) are determined by simulating a global model under alternative assumptions about the objective function of the European Central Bank (ECB) and about cooperation vs. non-cooperation between monetary and fiscal policy-makers and among the latter. The results show the high effectiveness of fixed rules in the presence of supply-side shocks and the usefulness of cooperative discretionary measures against demand-side shocks. More generally, cooperation among fiscal policy-makers in the EMU is nearly always superior to non-cooperative equilibrium solutions, yielding a strong case for the coordination of fiscal policies.     

Rational expectations and fixed-event forecasts: An application to UK inflation

This paper tests a version of the rational expectations hypothesis using ‘fixed-event’ inflation forecasts for the UK. Fixed-event forecasts consist of a panel of forecasts for a set of outturns of a series at varying horizons prior to each outturn. The forecasts are the prediction of fund managers surveyed by Merrill Lynch. Fixed-event forecasts allow tests for whether expectations are unbiased in a similar fashion to the rest of the literature. But they also permit the conduct of particular tests of forecast efficiency - whether the forecasts make best use of available information - that are not possible with rolling-event data. We find evidence of a positive bias in inflation expectations. Evidence for inefficiency is much less clear cut.First version received: June 2002/ Final version received: November 2003We would like two anonymous referees and an editor for comments that have significantly improved the paper. The views expressed in this paper are those of the authors and do not necessarily reflect those of the Bank of England.     

The monetary transmission mechanism: evidence and implications for European Monetary Union

We provide some evidence consistent with a heterogeneous credit channel of monetary policy transmission in the European Union. Using the techniques of cointegration and Error Correction Models, we have shown that the external finance premium is one important leading indicator of real economic activity in Germany and Italy. No evidence is found for France and the UK. Therefore, a common monetary policy implemented by the European Central Bank might be transmitted in different ways across the member countries of the monetary union, thus exacerbating existing regional disparities among the member countries.     

Strategic Interactions of Monetary Policymakers and Wage/Price Bargainers: A Review with Implications for the European Common-Currency Area

This paper reviews recent work on macroeconomic management with varying organization of wage/price bargaining and degrees of credible monetary conservatism. The emerging literature synthesizes and extends theory and empirics on central bank independence (CBI) and coordinated wage/price bargaining (CWB), arguing that the degrees of CBI and CWB interact with each other and with other political-economic conditions (sectoral composition, international exposure, etc.) to structure the incentives facing actors involved in monetary policy and wage/price bargaining. The core implication, theoretically surprising but empirically supported, is that even perfectly credible monetary conservatism has long-run, equilibrium, on-average real effects, even with fully rational expectations, and that these effects depend on the organization of wage/price bargaining. Conversely, wage/price-bargaining structure has real effects that depend on the degree of credible conservatism reflected in monetary-policy rules. Each also has interactive nominal effects though this is less surprising. Some disagreement remains over the precise nature of these interactive effects, but all emerging theory and evidence agree that a common, credibly conservative European monetary policy has nominal and real effects that depend on the Europe-wide institutional-structural organization of wage/price bargaining. Indeed, the one specific piece of theoretical and empirical agreement suggests that, for many member countries, the nominal gains from monetary-policy delegation to a credibly conservative European Central Bank will worsen these bargaining-policy interactions.     

The Monetary Transmission Mechanism: Evidence from Eight Economies in Transition

Abstract

We examine in this paper the importance of banks’ behavior in the transmission of the monetary policy to the real economy. Monthly data from eight economies in transition that recently became members of the European Union and the techniques of cointegration and Error Correction models are used, in order to investigate the relationship between intermediation margin spread (IMS, official lending rate minus deposit rate) and industrial production. Given the low development of corporate bond market and the dependence of non-financial agents on banking credits, we find that in many countries the IMS is an important leading indicator of industrial production. However, in countries characterized by credit access constraints (Estonia and Latvia) evidence for the traditional money channel is found. Evidence for both money and credit channels is found in Poland and Hungary. These results imply that a common monetary policy implemented by the European Central Bank may be transmitted in different ways across the new members of the enlarged European Union with different effects on real output in each country.     

Testing economic models of volunteer labour supply: some empirical evidence for the German Red Cross

We use a new data set collected by means of a questionnaire study of volunteers of the German Red Cross to test predictions of three competing economic models of volunteer labour supply: the public-goods model, the private-consumption model and the human-capital model. The three competing economic models make different predictions regarding the response of a volunteer’s labour supply to a change in the perceived labour supply of other volunteers. Our empirical results lend support to the public-goods model.     

Learning,forecasting and optimizing: An experimental study

Rational Expectations (RE) models have two crucial dimensions: (i) agents on average correctly forecast future prices given all available information, and (ii) given expectations, agents solve optimization problems and these solutions in turn determine actual price realizations. Experimental tests of such models typically focus on only one of these two dimensions. In this paper we consider both forecasting and optimization decisions in an experimental cobweb economy. We report results from four main experimental treatments: (1) subjects form forecasts only, (2) subjects determine quantity only (solve an optimization problem), (3) they do both and (4) they are paired in teams and one member is assigned the forecasting role while the other is assigned the optimization task. All treatments converge to Rational Expectation Equilibrium (REE), but at different speeds. We observe that performance is the best in treatment 1 and the worst in Treatment 3. We further find that most subjects use adaptive rules to forecast prices. Given a price forecast, subjects are less likely to make conditionally optimal production decisions in Treatment 3 where the forecast is made by themselves, than in Treatment 4 where the forecast is made by the other member of their team, which suggests that “two heads are better than one” in term of the speed of finding the REE.     

Monetary policy strategies in the New Normal: A model-based analysis for the euro area

A calibrated New Keynesian model of the euro area is used to evaluate the stabilization properties of alternative monetary policy strategies when the natural rate of interest is low (“new normal”) and the probability of reaching the effective lower bound (ELB) is non-negligible. Price level targeting is the most effective strategy in terms of stabilizing inflation and output and reducing the duration and frequency of ELB episodes. Temporary price level targeting is also effective in mitigating the ELB constraint, although its stabilization properties are inferior to those of price level targeting. Backward-looking average inflation targeting performs well and is preferable to inflation targeting. The effectiveness of these alternative strategies hinges upon the commitment of a central bank to keeping the policy rate “lower for longer” and is influenced by agents’ expectation formation mechanism.     

Monetary shocks,equity returns and volatility: a firm-level panel data analysis

This article studies the impact of monetary policy shocks on equity returns and their volatility among nine industries and their affiliated firms in the United States. We use an extension of the traditional CAPM as the analytical framework and approximate policy shocks with the unexpected component of the federal funds rate. Data on the characteristics of firms and industries are obtained from Compustat and the Center for Research in Security Prices, covering a sample period from 1987 to 2009. Our results clearly show that responses to policy shocks vary by industry and across firms. Furthermore, credit availability matters in certain industries, and small, financially constrained, and bank-dependent firms are found to be more vulnerable to unexpected federal funds rate shocks.     

Contractual restrictions on insider trading: a welfare analysis

Summary. This paper analyzes the welfare effects of permitting firms to negotiate contractually the right to allow corporate insiders to trade shares in the firm on private information. A computational framework is employed to (i) analyze formally the effects of insider trading on managerial investment choice, the informational efficiency of stock prices, and the welfare of all investor types; and (ii) examine the effectiveness of various compensation schemes (such as stock and insider trading rights) to mitigate conflicts of interest between managers and shareholders. I show that shareholders will typically choose not to grant insider trading rights to managers. This decision is socially optimal. Received: September 23, 2000; revised version: December 12, 2000     

Assessing monetary policy in the euro area: a factor-augmented VAR approach

In order to overcome the omitted information problem of small-scale Vector Autoregression (VAR) models, this study combines the VAR methodology with dynamic factor analysis and assesses the effects of monetary policy shocks in the euro area in the period during which there is a single monetary policy. Using the Factor-Augmented Vector Autoregressive (FAVAR) approach of Bernanke et al. (2005 Bernanke, B, Boivin, J and Eliasz, P. 2005. Measuring the effects of monetary policy: a factor-augmented vector autoregressive (FAVAR) approach. The Quarterly Journal of Economics, 120: 387–422. [Crossref], [Web of Science ®] , [Google Scholar]), we summarize the information contained in a large set of macroeconomic time series with a small number of estimated factors and use them as regressors in recursive VARs to evaluate the impact of the nonsystematic component of the European Central Bank's (ECB's) actions. Overall, our results suggest that the inclusion of factors in the VAR allows us to obtain a more coherent picture of the effects of monetary policy innovations, both by achieving responses easier to understand from the theoretical point of view and by increasing the precision of such responses. Moreover, this framework allows us to compute impulse-response functions for all the variables included in the panel, thereby providing a more complete depiction of the effects of policy disturbances. However, the extra information generated by the FAVAR also delivers some puzzling responses, in particular those relating to exchange rates.     

Monetary policy in Germany: A cointegration analysis on the relevance of interest rate rules

The paper attempts to identify an empirical relationship that characterizes the way the Bundesbank adjusted its short-term rate with respect to various objectives. By building on a careful exploration of the properties of the variables involved, it is established that interest rate rules —often remarkably similar to the Taylor rule— remain valid and relevant in a Vector Error Correction framework, and thereby proposing a distinctive interpretation of German monetary policy during the period 1975–1998.     

The Powers of The Central Governments and the Problems of Enlarging and Deepening the European Union: An Essay of Constitutional Political Economy

In this paper we present an adaptation of Buchanan and Tullock’s model in order to apply it to the constitutional choices regarding the assigning of powers to a supranational authority. The outcome of the economic-political model developed in this paper demonstrates that there are constraints in the supply of integration, suggesting that the enlargement and deepening of the European Union will have to be based on federalist conceptions. The authors should like to thanks seminar participants at European Public Choice conference (Belgirate 2002) and ECSA-C conference (Toronto 2002) where earlier versions of the paper have benefited from constructive suggestions. The authors assume the sole responsibility for any errors remaining in this version.     

An explanation for the price puzzle: Asymmetric information and expectation dynamics

Using theoretical and empirical analyses, this paper shows that the expectation dynamics induced by information asymmetry between the Central Bank (CB) and the public can cause the price puzzle. The signalling and learning dynamics between the CB and a representative private-sector agent under asymmetric information is investigated. Inflation positively reacts to contractionary monetary policy because the change in the interest rate is perceived as a signal of the CB’s private information about higher future inflation and output by the public. The empirical section of the paper validates this theoretical argument using a VAR specification about the US economy. Besides providing an explanation for the price puzzle, the results of this paper has practical implications about transparency and monetary policy. The theoretical and empirical findings indicate that asymmetric information causes significant frictions in the transmission mechanism of monetary policy. These frictions induce short-run undesired effects like increase in expected inflation and actual inflation as a response to contractionary monetary policy which is identified as “the price puzzle”.     

Learning process and rational expectations: An analysis using a small macro-economic model for New Zealand

The nature of expectations matters when conducting monetary policy. Models with a learning process can exhibit very different properties from models with other types of expectation rules. This paper draws on the work of Orphanides and Williams [Orphanides, A., Williams, J.C. 2002. Imperfect knowledge, inflation expectations and monetary policy, Federal Reserve Board Finance and Economics Discussion Series, 2002-27], extending it to allow for the possibility that the learning process may not be perpetual, but rather might be converging towards a rational expectations equilibrium. By modelling expectations using a learning process, we obtain that inflation expectations in New Zealand are moving towards rational expectations. The closer expectations are to rational, the more inflation can be reduced without costs, thus arguing for a rather tough policy aimed at anchoring expectations on the target.     

An analysis of the impact of unionization on efficiency: evidence from a meta-frontier analysis

This article examines the impact of unions on the efficiency of establishments in the manufacturing industry by comparing the results from two different empirical strategies: stochastic frontier analysis (SFA) and meta-frontier analysis (MFA). While SFA concludes that union establishments show higher technological efficiency, the results are the opposite when estimating production functions with MFA. In SFA, unionized establishments appear to be more efficient because they remain closer to their own production frontier; however, in MFA – where groups with heterogeneous technology can be compared – we find that nonunionized establishments are more efficient because they are closer to the meta-frontier than their unionized counterparts.