The dynamics of operational loss clustering

This paper investigates the characteristics of the operational loss data formation mechanism that takes place between the date of discovery of a new operational risk event and the final settlement date on which all losses are materialized. The first loss that characterizes the initial impact of a new operational risk event frequently triggers a sequence of related losses. Then, losses generated by the same event are not independent and follow a predictable scheme and the frequency of secondary losses is not homogeneous: both are functions of the initial loss amount and time. We model the arrival intensity and loss severities with a shot-noise stochastic process and derive its key properties. We then discuss implications of our model for the estimation of the regulatory capital charge for operational risk. In an empirical analysis, we find strong evidence of a shot-noise behavior in operational losses using the data of a major US commercial bank.     

The impact of enterprise risk management on the marginal cost of reducing risk: Evidence from the insurance industry

We test the hypothesis that practicing enterprise risk management (ERM) reduces firms’ cost of reducing risk. Adoption of ERM represents a radical paradigm shift from the traditional method of managing risks individually to managing risks collectively allowing ERM-adopting firms to better recognize natural hedges, prioritize hedging activities towards the risks that contribute most to the total risk of the firm, and optimize the evaluation and selection of available hedging instruments. We hypothesize that these advantages allow ERM-adopting firms to produce greater risk reduction per dollar spent. Our hypothesis further predicts that, after implementing ERM, firms experience profit maximizing incentives to lower risk. Consistent with this hypothesis, we find that firms adopting ERM experience a reduction in stock return volatility. We also find that the reduction in return volatility for ERM-adopting firms becomes stronger over time. Further, we find that operating profits per unit of risk (ROA/return volatility) increase post ERM adoption.     

Macroenvironmental determinants of operational loss severity

We investigate the relationships between the severity of operational loss events reported in the banking sector and various regulatory, legal, geographical, and economic indicators. Based on a data sample of over 57,000 losses incurred in more than 130 countries reported by the Operational Riskdata eXchange (ORX) consortium, we identify the most relevant exposure indicators for losses in four Basel II event categories: Internal Fraud; External Fraud; Employment Practices and Workplace Safety; and Clients, Products and Business Practices. We find evidence of significant correlations between Internal Fraud and constraints on executive power and the prevalence of insider trading. Clients, Products and Business Practices losses are significantly related to securities and shareholder protection laws, restrictions on banking activity, supervisory power, and the prevalence of insider trading. Other event types are sensitive to per-capita GDP and a governance index.     

Multivariate models for operational risk

Böcker and Klüppelberg [Risk Mag., 2005, December, 90–93] presented a simple approximation of OpVaR of a single operational risk cell. The present paper derives approximations of similar quality and simplicity for the multivariate problem. Our approach is based on the modelling of the dependence structure of different cells via the new concept of a Lévy copula.     

论经营风险分析的审计意义

经营风险与财务报表重大错报风险之间存在高度的相关性。经营风险是指企业外部环境与内部环境对企业目标的实现产生不利影响的可能性。为了应对     

The cost of market power in banking: Social welfare loss vs. cost inefficiency

This paper analyses the relationship between market power in the loan and deposit markets and efficiency in the EU-15 countries over 1993–2002. Results show the existence of a positive relationship between market power and cost X-efficiency, allowing rejection of the so-called quiet life hypothesis [Berger, A.N., Hannan, T.H., 1998. The efficiency cost of market power in the banking industry: A test of the ‘quiet life’ and related hypotheses. Review of Economics and Statistics 8 (3), 454–465]. The social welfare loss attributable to market power in 2002 represented 0.54% of the GDP of the EU-15. Results show that the welfare gains associated with a reduction of market power are greater than the loss of bank cost efficiency, showing the importance of economic policy measures aimed at removing the barriers to outside competition.     

为客户降低保险成本提供“一个窗口”全面服务——访中国出口信用保险公司总经理唐若昕

党的十七大报告指出：“加快转变经济发展方式”、“统筹城乡发展”、“健全社会信用体系”、“拓展对外开放广度和深度”。中国出口信用保险公司（以下简称“中国信保”）履行政策性职能,认真贯彻党的十七大提出的各项要求,强化信用保险对我国经济发展的保障作用,全面推行“一个窗口”服务模式,努力提高信用保险的覆盖水平,不仅提升了自身的市场化运营水平,而且使信用保险服务更加满足市场的需要,贴近客户的需求。中国信保总经理唐若昕就“一个窗口”服务客户接受了记者专访。     

A rating model for loss of profits insurance

Abstract

In this paper we present a rating model for loss of profits insurance for a production system consisting of n production units. Explicit expressions for the company's long run expected average claims expenditures are derived. A numerical example is given.     

投资收益、经营效率和寿险企业市场绩效

中国寿险业的垄断型市场结构并没有造成垄断企业控制市场以获得超额利润的情况。本文选取中国人寿、泰康人寿、新华人寿三家企业1998年～2007年间的面板数据作为样本数据,分析了我国寿险公司绩效的影响因素,认为在中国寿险业日益激烈的市场竞争下,寿险企业的利润主要来自投资收益,经营效率高的企业虽然不能因为技术效率和规模效率而获得高利润,但是可以在竞争中占有更多的市场份额。     

Aggregating risk capital, with an application to operational risk

We describe a numerical procedure to obtain bounds on the distribution function of a sum of n dependent risks having fixed marginals. With respect to the existing literature, our method provides improved bounds and can be applied also to large non-homogeneous portfolios of risks. As an application, we compute the VaR-based minimum capital requirement for a portfolio of operational risk losses. JEL Classification G20 · 60E15 · 91B30     

Cyclicality in catastrophic and operational risk measurements

Using equity returns for financial institutions we estimate both catastrophic and operational risk measures over the period 1973–2003. We find evidence of cyclical components in both the catastrophic and operational risk measures obtained from the generalized Pareto distribution and the skewed generalized error distribution. Our new, comprehensive approach to measuring operational risk shows that approximately 18% of financial institutions’ returns represent compensation for operational risk. However, depository institutions are exposed to operational risk levels that average 39% of the overall equity risk premium. Moreover, operational risk events are more likely to be the cause of large unexpected catastrophic losses, although when they occur, the losses are smaller than those resulting from a combination of market risk, credit risk or other risk events.     

The pricing of deposit insurance in the presence of systematic risk

Based on the Merton (1977) put option framework, we develop a deposit insurance pricing model that incorporates asset correlations, a measurement for the systematic risk of a bank, to account for the risk of joint bank failures. Estimates from our model suggest that actuarially fair risk-based deposit insurance that considers only individual bank failure risk is underpriced, leaving insurance providers exposed to net losses. Our estimates also capture the size premium where big banks are priced with higher deposit insurance than small banks. This result is particularly relevant to the current regulatory concerns on big banks that are too-big-to-fail. Above all, our approach provides a unifying framework for integrating risk-based deposit insurance with risk-based Basel capital requirements.     

现收现付制养老保险风险量化及应对策略

现收现付制养老保险是一种代际转移的制度,其可持续发展的经济学基础为生产力、工资和人口三者的综合增长因素能够维持代际转移,从而保证人们退休后能够维持稳定的工资替代率。这三种因素的波动形成了一定的风险。如何量化和管理这些风险是本文的研究主题。本文将给出代际人口比例和代际工资比例满足的随机微分方程。基于此,考虑在给定缴费比例和工资替代率条件下,养老保险计划出现支付危机的概率分布。进而,为了寻找风险与收益的平衡,研究现收现付制养老保险的VaR。最后,利用中国的实际统计数据,对本文的理论结果给予实证阐述,并提出应对的策略。     

保险中介市场风险状况及监管对策

当前,随着保险中介市场的快速发展,市场风险状况不容乐观,一般性风险普遍存在,个别机构因严重违法造成的风险已相当严重,同时,因保险中介经营模式创新引发的风险也不容忽视。这些风险如不能采取有效的监管措施加以控制,势必对保险中介市场平稳健康发展带来严重冲击。为此,应加快完善监管法律法规和制度,严格市场准入并建立有效的市场退出制度,强化保险公司对代理机构和保险营销员的管理责任,改革现行个人保险营销体制,细化从业人员资格考试,实行从业人员分级管理,充分发挥行业协会的自律职能。     

Sudden crash or long torture: The timing of market reactions to operational loss events

An emerging literature investigating market responses to operational loss announcements concludes that financial markets tend usually to overreact to loss events. This overreaction is commonly interpreted as reputational damage. We revisit this issue by focusing on the timing of markets’ reactions and highlight two variables: the start and the speed of stock markets’ responses. It appears that when operational losses are caused by internal fraud the negative market reaction materializes earlier and faster. Industry sectors and prevailing market conditions influence the timing of market reactions as well. Our empirical findings reveal moreover that a higher initial grading of the company is associated with a later stock market reaction to the announcement. While the relative magnitude and the length of markets’ overreactions is positively correlated to the concomitant downgrading our study shows that overreaction magnitudes are also strongly correlated to our estimate of the total duration of the reaction.     

Board composition and operational risk events of financial institutions

We investigate the relation between board composition and operational risk events of financial institutions in the period from 1996 to 2010. Drawing from corporate governance literature, we consider the impact of board characteristics on the likelihood of operational risk events. Overall, our findings suggest that board size is negatively and non-linearly associated with the possibility of operational risk events. For the event types of “Clients, Products, and Business Practices,” and “Internal Fraud and External Fraud,” firms with a higher proportion of independent directors are less likely to suffer from fraud or failure to comply with professional obligations to clients. Our results on age and tenure heterogeneity also indicate that having a more diverse board can have an adverse impact on the board monitoring function. These results can shed new light on board demographics and operational risk management in financial institutions.     

基于KMV模型对我国上市保险公司的信用风险度量

目前,我国对保险公司的监管主要是静态监管,不能完全满足未来经济发展对保险业监管提出的挑战。为此,本文在介绍了KMV模型后,利用KMV模型对我国已上市的保险公司的风险进行了度量,旨在探讨在未来时机成熟时保险监管中引入KMV模型,利用KMV模型良好的风险预测能力,加强和改善保险监管的可能性。     

The impact of deposit insurance on S&L shareholders' risk/return trade-offs

This article empirically examines how savings and loan associations' (S&Ls') stock returns respond to asset mix changes. When deposit insurance is underpriced, increases in financial leverage and the riskiness of the asset portfolio should lead to increases in expected return on common stock. In particular, changes in asset components which increase the volatility of an institution's portfolio should lead the stock market to upwardly revalue S&L equity. This hypothesis is examined using data for the July 1984–December 1989 period. Increases in commercial mortgage loans, acquisition and development loans, and investments in service corporations appear to cause higher return for shareholders of poorly capitalized, failing S&Ls. Similar increases appear to have little impact on the common stock returns of well-capitalized S&Ls.