Time-Varying Variance Risk Premium and the Predictability of Chinese Stock Market Return

A number of studies have shown that the variance risk premium (VRP), defined as the difference between risk-neutral and physical expected variances, has strong predictive power for the excess stock market return, and this predictability peaks at 3- to 6-month prediction horizons. However, little research presents empirical evidences for Chinese stock market due to the absence of option market. Under general equilibrium asset pricing framework, this article estimates time-varying VRP using the Chinese stock market data. We find that the estimated VRP predicts the excess Chinese stock market return, and this forecasting power is stronger at 4- and 5-month horizons, which is consistent with the findings of existing literature.     

Time Varying Market Leverage, the Market Risk Premium and the Cost of Capital

This paper shows that, when as usual the market portfolio is proxied by a share portfolio, then the conventional Ibbotson (1999) estimator of the market risk premium violates Miller–Modigliani (1958 and 1963) propositions II and III. A new estimator of the market risk premium is proposed which is free of these defects. In addition, across the range of market leverages experienced in the US in the period 1952–1997, it generates estimates of the market risk premium that differ from those generated by the Ibbotson methodology by up to 2.5 percentage points, and weighted average costs of capital for firms that differ by up to 2.6 percentage points.     

基于实现极差和实现波动率的中国金融市场风险测度研究

目前比较流行的金融市场风险价值研究一般采用日收益数据,并基于GARCH类模型进行估计和预测。本文利用沪深股指日内高频数据,分别通过ARFIMA模型和CARR模型对实现波动率和较新的实现极差建模,计算风险价值。通过对VaR的似然比和动态分位数等回测检验,实证分析了各种模型的VaR预测能力。结果显示,使用日内高频数据的实现波动率和实现极差模型的预测能力强于采用日数据的各种GARCH类模型。     

Do Newly Listed Derivatives Affect the Market Risk Premium in a Thin Stock Market?

This study examines the effects on the stock market unitary risk premium and volatility associated with the listing of stock and stock index derivatives in Switzerland. Based on a univariate GARCH (1,1) specification of the stock index variance and a time-varying unitary risk premium representation, we can reject the hypothesis that stock and stock index derivatives listings do not affect the total risk premium. Contrarily to previous empirical evidence, we find that derivatives listings affect both the conditional market returns' variance and the unitary risk premium through structural shocks. The gradual market completion hypothesis is further corroborated in that, cumulatively, the three stock and stock index options futures derivatives listings reduced the unitary risk premium while the marginal impact of each successive listing decayed.     

Do Sovereign Re‐Ratings Destabilize Equity Markets during Financial Crises? New Evidence from Higher Return Moments

This study investigates the effects of S&P's sovereign re‐ratings on the higher moments of equity market returns over recent financial crises. Using a set of intraday stock market index prices and sovereign credit ratings for a sample of 36 countries that experienced sovereign rating changes over the period from 1996 to 2013, we find that the higher moments of stock market returns are significantly more responsive to sovereign re‐ratings during financial crises, but the effects on stock markets are not the same across different financial crises. The effects during crises are, however, magnified for large downgrades and those that are associated with a loss of investment grade status. We find that there are asymmetric effects during financial crises in that downgrades are consistently more significant than upgrades in increasing realized volatility and realized kurtosis. Both upgrades and downgrades affect realized skewness in times of crises in the expected direction.     

Market Structure and Return Volatility: Evidence from the Hong Kong Stock Market

There is no consensus about the cause for higher volatility at the market open than at the market close in the U.S. market. As an order–driven, nonspecialist market, the Hong Kong stock market provides a useful setting for an examination. If halt of trade were the major cause of higher open–to–open volatility, the open–to–open volatility in the Hong Kong market would be higher. However, this is not observed. The autocorrelation of the open–to–open return series also indicates that the temporary price deviation at the market opening is not significant. We view these findings as consistent with the specialist argument.     

Future Realized Return,Firm‐specific Risk and the Implied Expected Return

In this paper, I propose a novel approach to derive a firm‐specific measure of expected return. It builds on recent accounting‐based valuation models developed by Clubb (2013) and Ashton and Wang (2013). The measure is intrinsically linked to commonly used financial ratios, including book‐to‐market, (forward) earnings yield, and dividend‐to‐price, as well as growth and past returns. The empirical evidence shows that it is significantly positively associated with future realized stock returns and also significantly correlated with commonly used risk characteristics in a theoretically predictable manner. The results are likely to be of interest to practitioners and managers in making capital allocation decisions and to academics in need of proxies for firms’ discount rates and expected returns.     

Shiller's CAPE: Market Efficiency and Risk

Robert Shiller shows that Cyclically Adjusted Price to Earnings Ratio (CAPE) is strongly associated with future long‐term stock returns. This is often interpreted as evidence of market inefficiency. We present two findings contrary to such an interpretation. First, if markets are efficient, stock returns should be higher than the risk‐free rate. We find that even when CAPE is in its ninth decile, future 10‐year stock returns, on average, are higher than future returns on 10‐year U.S. Treasurys. Thus, the results are largely consistent with market efficiency. Second, consistent with a risk–return tradeoff, we find that CAPE is negatively associated with future stock market volatility.     

中国股票市场风险溢价研究

本文通过综合资产定价理论和实证文献研究结论,对1997年到2009年中国股市A股股票的风险溢价的截面差异作了详尽的实证研究。我们构造25个投资组合作为检验资产,进行Fama-MacBeth两步回归法,建立了基于市场风险溢价,账面市值比,盈利股价比,现金流股价比,投资资本比,工业增加值变化率以及回购利率和期限利差的八因素模型。我们的主要发现有以下三点:一是相对于Fama-French三因素模型,我们模型的实证解释力有显著提高;二是与过去的文献不同,我们发现回购利率和期限利差等债市指标对股市风险溢价的截面数据有显著解释能力;三是与基于投资的资产定价理论一致,我们发现投资比率和现金流股价比能显著反映我国股市的风险溢价。     

A Model of Return Volatility with Application to Estimating Relative Risk Aversion

We estimate a monthly return volatility model that allows for the abrupt changes in volatility often observed in returns data. Using this model we are able to identify key months likely to correspond to draws from a high volatility regime. Using our model in conjunction with Merton's (1980) model relating expected risk premia to risk we obtain reasonable estimates of the coefficient of relative risk aversion.     

The Return Performance of Cubic Market Model: An Application to Emerging Markets

This article studies the performance of the high-order moment capital asset pricing model (CAPM) market models in emerging markets. We apply the cubic market model (4-moment CAPM) to 16 emerging market stock indices ranging from January 2010 to September 2015. Performance of the model is evaluated through the Fama and MacBeth’s two-step regression and through different corrections proposed in the literature, as well as generalized method of moments (GMM) estimation. According to Fama–MacBeth’s procedure, CAPM, the quadratic and cubic market models seem to be insignificant for the analyzed sample; however, the GMM estimation shows that quadratic model is valid for Indian, Polish, and Thai country indices, whereas cubic market model is accurate for Indian country index.     

Volatility Risk Premium,Risk Aversion,and the Cross‐Section of Stock Returns

We test if innovations in investor risk aversion are a priced factor in the stock market. Using 25 portfolios sorted on book‐to‐market and size as test assets, our new factor together with the market factor explains 64% of the variation in average returns compared to 60% for the Fama‐French model. The new factor is generally significant with an estimated risk premium close to its time series mean also when industry portfolios and portfolios sorted on previous returns are augmented to the test assets.     

极端风险事件下股票市场与公司债券市场的尾部风险溢出研究——基于MVMQ-CAViaR模型

构建MVMQ-CAViaR模型,结合金融市场内部极端风险事件和外部极端风险事件,考量股票市场与公司债券市场的尾部风险溢出问题。结果表明,在金融市场内部极端风险事件下,股灾期间仅存在股票市场对公司债券市场单向的尾部风险溢出。公司债券违约潮期间,股票市场与公司债券市场之间存在双向不对称的尾部风险溢出,且公司债券市场对股票市...     

Is Volatility Risk for the British Pound Priced in U.S. Options Markets?

This paper estimates the premium for volatility risk for European currency options written on British pounds. The average annualized premium for volatility risk is neither statistically different from zero nor invariant to the option's moneyness. However, the risk premium is positively and nonproportionaly related to the level of volatility, except for out‐of‐the‐money options. Finding a zero premium for volatility risk does not undermine the assumption of a zero‐price volatility risk in many extant stochastic‐volatility option pricing models and the option pricing formulas in those models.     

波动率风险及风险价格——来自中国A股市场的证据

本文应用Fama-Macbeth估计方法,以1997年2月至2009年6月中国A股股票为样本,考察股票市场波动率风险及其风险价格的特征。研究表明:波动率风险是一个显著的横截面定价因子,其风险价格为负,该结论不受流动性及市场偏度因子、待检资产改变、波动率模型设定的影响;在资产定价模型中引入波动率风险因子有利于解释规模效应和账面市值比效应异象。波动率的风险因子可以涵盖部分宏观经济变量的定价信息,规模因子是波动率风险因子的代理变量。     

交易所国债期限风险溢价的实证研究

本文考察了上海证券交易所国债期限风险溢价的时间变化特征及决定因素。实证结果显示，债券剩余期限越长，平均风险溢价越高；通过对不同期限债券组合的风险溢价序列建立回归模型，发现长短期利差及风险溢价的前期值对中长期债券期限风险溢价的时变性具有明显的解释能力。     

Stock Market Volatility and Economic Factors

This paper examines the ability of rational economic factors to explain stock market volatility. A simple model of the economy under uncertainty identifies four determinants of stock market volatility: uncertainty about the price level, the riskless rate of interest, the risk premium on equity and the ratio of expected profits to expected revenues. In initial tests these variables have significant explanatory power and account for over 50 per cent of the variation in market volatility from 1929 to 1989. When the regression coefficients are allowed to vary over time using cluster regression, the four factors explain over 90 per cent of the variation in market volatility. The results are useful in explaining the past behavior of stock market volatility and in forecasting future volatility.     

An Empirical Analysis of the Volatility in the Open-End Fund Market: Evidence from China

This paper applies a set of GARCH models to investigate the three characteristics, including time persistence, leverage effect, and risk premium, of the volatilities of the four China Securities Index (CSI) fund indices. This study made the following four findings: (1) a strong ARCH effect exists in the returns; (2) time persistence is significant in all the CSI fund indices, namely, "stock index," "hybrid index," and "bond index" in descending order of significance; (3) the leverage effect is not statistically significant, yet there may be a positive leverage effect on the bond funds; (4) a risk premium effect exists in the open-end fund market, especially in the bond fund market.     

Arbitrage, Risk Premium, and Cointegration Tests of the Efficiency of Futures Markets

This article provides a new perspective on the efficiency of futures markets in a cointegration framework. Under the conventional risk premium hypothesis, if futures and spot prices are non-stationary, they must be cointegrated if futures markets are efficient. Alternatively, the cost-of-carry model implies that there should be a cointegration relationship among spot prices, futures prices and interest rates assuming all the series contain a unit root. Market efficiency further implies specific parameter restrictions under these two models. Using data on the futures markets for gold, silver, palladium and platinum, this article first establishes that interest rates, spot and futures prices are unit root non-stationary. The evidence on cointegration is somewhat mixed: the gold futures market is consistent with the cost-of-carry model, and the silver futures market satisfies the risk premium hypothesis, but the evidence for the other two markets is inconclusive.     

中国居民储蓄与股票市场之间的联动效应——理论分析与实证检验

从资产需求理论出发的理论分析、对我国现实情况进行的剖析,以及利用2001～2007年3月的最新数据对居民储蓄与股票市场之间联动关系进行的实证分析显示:随着经济的发展和资本市场的深化,我国居民的储蓄偏好和证券投资倾向正逐步发生变化;我国股市交易与居民储蓄存在联动效应,居民主动投资股票市场的积极性在增强,但两者之间的影响幅度还相对较小,这与我国居民储蓄存款的低利率弹性、股票市场的高风险特征以及股票市场的风险溢价波幅较大等有关.