Consumption habits in an overlapping-generations model

This paper introduces consumption habits in the Blanchard (1985) overlapping-generations model. It shows that steady-state capital and consumption are higher if individuals have habits than otherwise. Moreover, “inward habits” lead to higher steady-state capital and consumption compared to “outward habits.”     

Existence of a Pareto-optimal equilibrium in nearly-stationary overlapping-generations economies

Summary In overlapping-generations models of fiat money, the existence of a Pareto-optimal equilibrium — which defines an optimal quantity of money — is more general than well-known counter-examples suggest. Those examples, having no optimal equilibrium just because there are small variations in households' tastes and endowments across generations, are not typical. On the contrary: For an open-dense, full-measure subset of smooth stationary economies and an open-dense subset of continuous stationary economies, introducing small variations in tastes and endowments across generations preserves the existence of an optimal equilibrium. Put simply, optimal equilibria generically exist for nearly-stationary economies.I thank Scott Freeman, Katsuhiko Kawai, and two referees for proofreading this text; all lead to clarifications.     

Price stickiness and the contractionary effect of technology shocks

We derive a measure of technological change from a dynamic cost minimization model that controls for imperfect competition, increasing returns and unobserved factor utilization. We estimate this measure using highly detailed panel data of a representative sample of Italian manufacturing firms for the period 1984-1997. Our key finding is that technological improvements result in a contraction of labor input on impact. In principle, this result can be reconciled with the transmission mechanism of flexible-price models by resorting to reorganization and reallocation effects. On the other hand, however, it is consistent with the predictions of a sticky-price model. Using survey information on the frequency of price revisions, we corroborate the latter interpretation, by showing that the contractionary effect of technology shocks is much stronger for firms with stickier prices.     

Irreversible investment with regime shifts

Under the real options approach to investment under uncertainty, agents formulate optimal policies under the assumption that firms’ growth prospects do not vary over time. This paper proposes and solves a model of investment decisions in which the growth rate and volatility of the decision variable shift between different states at random times. A value-maximizing investment policy is derived such that in each regime the firm's investment policy is optimal and recognizes the possibility of a regime shift. Under this policy, investment is intermittent and increases with marginal q. Moreover, investment typically is very small but, in some states, the capital stock jumps. Implications for marginal q and the user cost of capital are also examined.     

Global instability in experimental general equilibrium: the Scarf example

Scarf (Int. Econ. Rev. 1 (1960) 157) proposed a model of dynamic adjustment in which the standard tatonnement price adjustment process orbits around, rather than converges to, the competitive equilibrium. Hirota (Int. Econ. Rev. 22 (1981) 461) characterized the price paths. We explore the predictions of Scarf's model in a non-tatonnement experimental double auction. The average transaction prices in each period do follow the path predicted by the Scarf and Hirota models. When the model predicts convergence the data converge; when the model predicts orbits, the data orbit in the direction predicted by the model. Moreover, we observe a weak tendency for prices within a period to follow the path predicted by the model.     

An overlapping-generations model with search

Search is embedded in an overlapping-generations model. The young participate in a centralized market, and then are matched in pairs in a decentralized market. The old only participate in the centralized market. If the buyer's bargaining power in pairwise trade is close to unity and if the old are risk averse, then the golden-rule rate of money transfer is positive. Such risk aversion, the pairwise meetings, and dependence of the young's saving on the rate of return are necessary for this result.     

Heterogeneous productivity shocks,elasticity of substitution and aggregate fluctuations

We use a Dixit-Stiglitz setting to show that aggregate productivity fluctuations can be generated through changes in the dispersion of firms’ productivity. When the elasticity of substitution among goods is larger than one, an increase in the dispersion raises aggregate productivity because firms at the top of the distribution produce most of output. When the elasticity is smaller than one, an increase in the dispersion reduces aggregate productivity because firms at the bottom of the distribution use most of inputs. We use individual firm level data from Spanish manufacturing firms to test the relationship between the dispersion of firms’ productivity and aggregate productivity. The estimated coefficients are consistent with the predictions of the model: we find that an increase in the coefficient of variation of firms productivity of 1% increases aggregate productivity by 0.16% in sectors with an elasticity of substitution larger than one while the same increase in the standard deviation reduces aggregate productivity by 0.36% in sectors with an elasticity of substitution smaller than one.     

Self-insurance vs. self-financing: A welfare analysis of the persistence of shocks

We study the welfare cost of market incompleteness in a generalized Bewley model where idiosyncratic risk takes the form of entrepreneurial productivity shocks. Market incompleteness in our framework has two dimensions. First, in the Bewley tradition, only a limited set of instruments for consumption smoothing is available. Second, entrepreneurs? capital rental is subject to collateral constraints. As is well known, it is harder to self-insure against more persistent shocks, and the welfare cost of missing consumption insurance increases with shock persistence. On the other hand, with collateral constraints, an increase in shock persistence leads to better allocation of production factors through entrepreneurs? self-financing, and the welfare cost of imperfect capital rental markets decreases with shock persistence. The overall welfare cost of market incompleteness can be increasing, decreasing, or even non-monotone in shock persistence, depending on the relative strengths of its two components—the cost of missing insurance and the cost of imperfect capital markets.     

Financing constraints and inventories

This paper investigates the impact of financing constraints on firms’ inventory and cash management. In particular, it examines the extent to which the presence of such constraints may account for certain empirical regularities. These include, e.g., the excess variance of production vis-à-vis that of sales, as well as the counter-cyclicality and persistence of the inventory-sales ratio. We model the intertemporal decision-making on production, cash retention and dividends of a firm that is exposed to stochastic demand shocks in every period and faces constrained access to external sources of finance. It is found that the presence of financing constraints can explain the excess variance of production in a model which otherwise would not deliver this result. Moreover, as long as demand is positively serially correlated they also contribute to the counter-cyclicality and persistence of the inventory-sales ratio. The paper suggests that financing constraints should not be discarded as a factor driving the cyclical behaviour of inventories.     

OPTIMAL IMMIGRATION POLICY: WHEN THE PUBLIC GOOD IS RIVAL*

In this model, we characterize optimal immigration and fiscal policies in the presence of a rival public good and heterogeneous discounting. Surprisingly, even if the government is benevolent towards natives only, it is optimal to keep borders open. Indeed, in the long run, patient natives hold the whole stock of capital, while impatient immigrants work. Moreover, since capital intensity is stationary, capital per native, consumption and the public good increase with the number of (immigrant) workers. This positive effect offsets the disutility deriving from the congestion of the public good. However, when we account for the costs associated with cultural heterogeneity, we find that it is optimal to regulate immigration inflows. We also analyze the long‐run sensitivity of the optimal policy mix with respect to the fundamentals.     

Business cycles through international shocks: A structural investigation

This paper investigates the sources of output volatility by decomposing the international shocks into finance and trade shocks. Through structural Bayesian estimations of an open-economy DSGE model on 16 countries, on average, international shocks explain around 70% of output fluctuations.     

Unions, monetary shocks and the labour market cycle

This paper provides a new growth model by considering strategic behaviour in the supply of labour. Workers form a labour union with the aim of manipulating wages for their own benefit. We analyse the implications on labour market dynamics at business cycle frequencies of getting away from the price-taking assumption. A calibrated monetary version of the union model does quite a reasonable job in replicating the dynamic features of labour market variables observed in post-war U.S. data.     

Identifying monetary policy shocks with changes in open market operations

In this paper, we reexamine the effects of monetary policy shocks by exploiting the information contained in open market operations. A sticky price model is developed where money is the counterpart of securities deposited at the central bank. The model's solution reveals that a rise in central bank holdings of open market securities can be interpreted as a monetary expansion. Estimates of vector autoregressions for US data are further provided showing that reactions to an unanticipated rise in open market securities are consistent with common priors about a monetary expansion, i.e., a decline in the federal funds rate, a rise in output, and inertia in price responses. Compared to federal funds rate shocks, prices do not exhibit a puzzling behavior and a larger fraction of the GDP forecast error variance can be attributed to open market shocks. However, the explanatory power of the latter has decreased since federal funds rate targets have been announced.     

Illustrating extraordinary shocks causing trend breaks

Structural breaks in a trending variable have been specified as changes in the drift parameter in the trend component, but extraordinary shocks causing these breaks have not been explicitly formulated. In this paper, the Hodrick–Prescott filter is extended by assuming two kinds of variance for the system noise driving the trend component: the larger one adopted in a point of time causing a trend break, and the smaller one adopted for remaining sequences. The number and location of structural breaks are determined by information criteria. In the proposed method, extraordinary shocks themselves can be illustrated. A Monte Carlo study shows the efficacy of the proposed model. Empirical results suggest that except for the UK, extraordinary shocks in quarterly time series of industrial production are detected for remaining six developed countries. Finally, it is shown that the proposed method considerably outperforms the other competing methods in correctly detecting business cycles.     

Reprint of: A common-pool resource experiment with postgraduate subjects from 41 countries

This study reports results from a new series of experiments that examine the robustness of face-to-face communication as a cooperation-facilitating institution in common-pool resource settings. Results are reported from nine experiment sessions, initially designed for pedagogical purposes. The sessions were conducted between 1998 and 2007 as part of a series of summer institutes on institutional analysis and environmental change. Subjects were graduate students and professionals from diverse disciplines, representing 41 countries of residence. The participants in this study stand in sharp contrast to most previous studies, which used undergraduates who self-select into experiments by volunteering to participate. Results from these experiments substantiate earlier findings that non-binding communication can serve as an effective mechanism for solving social dilemma problems, with subjects achieving near socially efficient outcomes.     

Endogenous growth, monetary shocks and nominal rigidities

We introduce endogenous growth in a standard NK model with staggered prices and wages. We find that the source of nominal rigidities, the shock persistence and the type of Taylor rule affect the relationship between monetary volatility and growth.     

Bargaining and network structure: An experiment

We consider bargaining in a bipartite network of buyers and sellers, who can only trade with the limited number of people with whom they are connected. We perform an experimental test of a graph-theoretic model that yields unique predictions about equilibrium prices for the networks in our sessions. The results diverge sharply depending on how a connection is made between two separate simple networks, typically conforming to the theoretical directional predictions. Payoffs can be systematically affected even for agents who are not connected by the new link, and we find evidence of a form of social learning.     

Another look at the linear q model: an empirical analysis of aggregate business capital spending with maintenance expenditures

Abstract .  The paper revisits the empirical investment literature, which has established that aggregate business fixed investment is not found to be related linearly to marginal or average Tobin's q . The theoretical background is extended here by developing a supply-side model where the depreciation rate of private capital is determined endogenously. The firm can either invest in 'new' capital, which adds directly to the existing capital stock at the presence of convex adjustment costs, or extend the durability of installed capital through maintenance expenditure, which affects its depreciation rate. The model shows that Tobin's q is then a positively related sufficient statistic for both components of aggregate capital expenditures. This central implication is tested empirically using aggregate time-series survey data from Canada on 'new' investment and maintenance expenditures covering the period 1956–93. The estimated relationships produce significant and plausible parameter estimates for the structural parameters of the q model.     

An empirical investigation of the effect of borrowing constraints on Spanish consumption

Abstract. This work analyses the relevance of borrowing constraints on the intertemporal behaviour of Spanish non-durable consumption. We estimate Euler equations with cohort data extracted from the “Encuesta Continua de Presupuestos Familiares” (ECPF) for the period 1985–1993. The results are robust to the use of different estimators to eliminate fixed individual effects, to different specifications of the model, to the effect of uncertainty and to the presence of habits in consumption. Our results allow us to conclude that non-durable consumption of a considerable fraction of the Spanish population is affected by borrowing constraints. At the same time, and in accordance with similar results for other countries, we confirm that borrowing constraints are especially important for the young. The author acknowledges the grant received from the Conselleria de Cultura, Educación y Ciencia de la Generalitat Valènciana, as part of its grant's programme for stays in foreign universities and the financial support by DGICYT grants SEC99-0820 and SEC 2002-00667. The author also acknowledges the hospitality of the Department of Economics at University College London (UCL) and of the Departamento de Análisis Económico de la Universidad Nacional de Educación a Distancia. This work has been presented in the XXV Simposio de Análisis Económico, held in Bellaterra (Spain) in December 2000. Finally, the author acknowledges comments by J. E. Boscá and two anonymous referees that have contributed to improving the final version of the paper.     

Trend shocks and the countercyclical U.S. current account

From 1960 to 2009, the U.S. current account balance has tended to decline during expansions and improve in recessions. We argue that shocks to the trend growth rate of productivity can help explain the countercyclical U.S. current account. Our framework is a two‐country, two‐good business cycle model in which international asset trade is limited to a single, non‐contingent bond. We identify trend and transitory shocks to U.S. productivity using generalized method of moments (GMM) estimation. The specification that best matches the data assigns a large role to trend shocks. The estimated model also captures key facts regarding international co‐movement.